Analysis of the Prigozhin-led Wagner Group Revolt in Russia

Causes, Developments

In the history of Russia, June 24 will be a day that those in power will never forget. This is because the Wagner private military company, which has grown stronger under Putin's patronage, never imagined that this power would one day attempt a coup against it. During the Soviet Union under communist rule and the post-1990 period of elective autocracy in Russia, there have been occasional military coups or coup attempts by civil-military cooperation. However, these coup attempts were carried out by the state's official army or official state officials. For the first time, an armed force in the form of a private military company attempted a coup against Putin, who is known as the most powerful person in Russia. 

The private military company Wagner, headed by Yevgeny Prigozhin, is a private military company with close ties to the Russian state. Prigozhin's private army was funded, armed and given status by the Putin regime, thus supporting its growth. Until its creation in 2014, it was engaged in covert operations on behalf of Russia.  After its creation, it was first deployed to Ukraine in 2014 to support pro-Russian separatist forces in the Donbass.  They also played an important role in the annexation of the Crimean peninsula to Russia. On the other hand, it has conducted operations in several African countries, including Syria, Libya and Mali. It has also deployed in Libya to support General Haftar, the leader of the Libyan National Army, who is led by the Tobruk Assembly in Libya. General Haftar was engaged in a military struggle with the Turkish-backed Government of National Accord based in Tripoli. 

The use of private military companies to protect the interests of states is a phenomenon that emerged after 1990. This is sometimes described in the international relations literature as the "privatization of security". (1) However, if these private military companies are operating in a third country, they are considered as "foreign wars". This phenomenon is a post-1990 development. In the post-1990 turmoil in the Balkans, Bosnia-Herzegovina and Kosovo were the first examples of this, where "Islamist fighters" joined the war alongside Muslims for religious purposes.   Later on, the involvement of jihadist groups around the world in the Syrian civil war clarified this phenomenon. 

On the other hand, it can be said that the quasi-military company "Blackwater" established in the US after the Second Iraq War inspired the Wagner group. States can benefit from such quasi-military and security formations that have no official ties with the state in order to avoid international agreements, norms and principles that are increasing in strength, to avoid being subjected to international sanctions and to prevent the international legitimacy of the policies or actions pursued from being questioned. 

Following the Russian invasion of Ukraine on February 28, 2022, the Wagner group was redeployed to Ukraine in March 2022 to support Russian military forces. In the Ukrainian war, Wagner played a major role in the capture of the city of Bakthum in May 2023. Wagner's manpower is largely made up of young Russians involved in criminal activities. With the war in Ukraine, legal changes were made to allow Russian prisoners to become members of this group. In this context, in November 2022, Putin signed a decree legalizing the conscription of convicts. Thus, Wagner' was provided with an important human resource. 

There are various reasons for Russia or Putin to use Wagner. Putin wants to use the Wagner group for some missions in Ukraine, considering that the use of Russian troops for some missions may be difficult in terms of international legitimacy. The group is not a legal element of the Russian Army. Thus, it is envisaged that the Russian Army cannot be held responsible for Wagner's actions, which could be considered war crimes. It wants to prevent a private company of murderers, thieves, rapists, etc. from being attributed to the Russian army for its actions in war. Another reason is that Russia uses this private group to reduce the casualties of Russian Army soldiers in the toughest battles in the Ukrainian War.  Because a person who will spend his life in prison will fight with all his strength, knowing that if he wins the war, he will never return to prison. Russia wants to take advantage of this "freedom motive". Thirdly, wars today are being fought with a new war strategy called hybrid warfare, which includes regular warfare strategies, which we call classical warfare, as well as non-regular asymmetric methods, forces and means. It includes cyber warfare, fake news, foreign fighters, diplomacy, law and other effective methods. In Ukraine, Russia is waging regular warfare with its army, while the Wagner group is intervening asymmetrically. Finally, given that Prigozhin, the leader of the Wagner group, is also an ex-convict, enriched by shady methods and Putin's closest friend, he has emerged as the most suitable candidate for asymmetric hybrid warfare for Russia. 

There are allegations that Wagner's leader Prigozhin was the reason for the attempted coup, and that there were disagreements between General Shoigu, the Minister of Defense of the Russian Federation, and General Gerasimov, the Chief of the General Staff, on the objectives of the Ukrainian war, the means used and the support of Wagner. In fact, in February 2023, Wagner's leader Prigozhin accused the Russian Defense Minister and the Chief of the General Staff of failing to provide Wagner's troops with ammunition and ammunition.  After that, we see an open struggle between Prigozhin and the Russian defense minister Shoigun.  

Again in early June 2023, Prigozhin openly declared that the Russian Defense Minister and the Chief of the General Staff had misinformed Putin about the war and that Putin had been deceived about the invasion of Ukraine. The fact that this objection, i.e. that Russia's invasion of Ukraine was wrong, came from a person who was in an active position in the war, is evidence that there were major disagreements in the Russian leadership about the war in Ukraine. 

On June 10, 2023, the Russian Ministry of Defense, in a written directive, demanded that Prigozhin's Wagner troops be attached to the Russian Ministry of Defense within 21 days. However, Prigozhin rejected Shoigun's request and declared that he would not comply. On June 23, 2023, Prigozhin announced a missile attack on the Wagner group by the Russian Army.  

The situation that emerged was a power struggle between Prigozhin and the Russian Chief of Defense and General Staff, who had achieved a great success by taking over Bakthum. Unable to get what he wanted from Putin in this power struggle, Prigozhin attempted to revolt on June 24, 2023 and Rostow captured himself without firing a bullet. Moreover, the Russian Army did not intervene in the Wagner group, which came within 300 kilometers of Moscow. More interestingly, for the first time since the Second World War, defensive positions were being prepared around Moscow. 

With the intervention of Belarusian leader Lukachenko, the rebellion was stopped and Prigozhin's departure to Belarus was accepted by Putin. It was envisaged that the members of the Wagner group would be distributed among the forces within the Russian Defense Ministry. Although the rebellion seems to have been suppressed, it is not foreseeable how a discrediting action will turn out for Putin and the Russian administration. 

Evaluation of the Uprising from Russia's Perspective  

In Russian history, the fate of those who tried to rebel and failed ended in death. Except for Prigozhin's rebellion. In Russia, a country with a political history of brutality and bloodshed, it is very difficult to predict the next stages of this rebellion. In a country where critics of the Russian regime and the war in Ukraine, whether foreign or domestic, are poisoned or commit suicide by jumping from high-rise buildings, it is thought-provoking that the rebels remain untouched. Most likely, Prigozhin is somehow involved in all these illegal deaths. He is not touched because he has too much information.  

Putin was afraid that a possible shedding of fraternal blood would be used by the West in a massive campaign against Russia. For this reason, it is assumed that he has not resorted to very harsh military measures. He refrained from an open use of force against the Wagner group, considering the risk of the Ukrainian war ending in defeat if the possibility of such a civil war necessitated a frontal shift of forces.  

In fact, the rebellion revealed how divergent the views of the Russian leadership were on the Ukrainian war. The fact that two states with almost identical national histories are at war with each other has implications in the Kremlin that could shake the Putin regime. Prigozhin was most likely in cahoots with some military and civilian leaders in the Kremlin. 

According to press reports, US intelligence knew that Prigozhin was preparing for a rebellion. The fact that Russian intelligence did not have this information constitutes a major intelligence weakness of the Russians. In any case, Putin has lost considerable credibility and power in the power struggle in the Kremlin. 

History is full of examples of irregular forces supporting regular armies with their own unique methods, but then falling out and separating for various reasons. However, it is not possible to predict that the situation of the Wagner group led by Prigozhin will be like them. Because the Russian Foreign Ministry's announcement that Wagner will continue its missions in Syria and Mali shows that this group will not disappear, but will continue to exist for Russian interests. 

The withdrawal of approximately 25 thousand soldiers of the Wagner group from the front indicates that there will be a troubled war process for Russia.  

Conclusion

Having been convinced that he could invade Ukraine in a short time, Putin, faced with the reality, tried to win the war with different methods. This is why the Wagner group was used in the war. Due to the Western support for Ukraine, Russia seems to have been subjected to a strategy of "prolonged attrition". In search of an honorable peace strategy, Putin will most likely have to continue the war until the US Presidential elections in 2024.

Footnotes

(1) Anıl Çağlar Erkan, Ahmet Ateş, Wagner Grubu’nun Yapısı Ve Operasyonları Üzerine Bir Inceleme, Toplum, Ekonomi Ve Yönetim Dergisi, Volume 4, Issue 1, June 2023.

Footnotes