Are the US, UK and EU Sanctions Working?

Sanctioned Countries

As is well known, the US, the UK and the EU impose sanctions against certain countries from time to time for various reasons. The reasons for sanctions range from Iran's scientific studies to produce nuclear weapons, North Korea's development of intercontinental ballistic missiles, Belarus' rigging of elections and suppression of the opposition by force, and Russia's invasion campaign to occupy parts of Ukraine's territory. There are also narrower, indirect sanctions, such as our exclusion from the F-35 project due to our purchase of the S-400 and the stalling of our application for the purchase of F-16s.

Criticism of Sanctions

These sanctions can be debated in terms of whether they are justified or unjustified, whether they are compatible with the principle of equality of states, and other issues. For example, the United States, which is trying to wear Iran down with sanctions for allegedly building nuclear weapons, is the country with the largest number of nuclear weapons in the world. Moreover, although Israel, a small state in the Middle East, also possesses nuclear weapons, it does not impose any sanctions against it. The US, which imposes sanctions on North Korea for its intercontinental ballistic missile tests, is also the most powerful country in the world in terms of ballistic missiles. It is neither fair nor just for it to demand that a weapon that is not forbidden to it should be forbidden to other countries.

There is also inconsistency in the sanctions that the EU, the UK and the US have imposed on some countries, not only because of weapons of mass destruction, but also to make them more democratic. For example, Belarus is sanctioned for its anti-democratic regime while no sanctions are imposed against anti-democratic regimes like Saudi Arabia. 

The situation is no different when it comes to sanctions against certain countries for alleged threats to peace. For example, heavy economic sanctions have been imposed on Russia for waging war against Ukraine and occupying parts of that country. However, almost all the wars in the post-Cold War world have been fought by the US or US-led coalitions (most European countries have joined these coalitions). In these wars, it was not enough to occupy parts of some countries, but the whole of two independent states, Iraq and Afghanistan, were occupied. 

Don't Sanctions Work?

For the reasons mentioned above, no one believes that the sanctions imposed by the US and the EU on certain countries are based on the pretexts they claim. Moreover, these sanctions do not fulfill the purposes for which they were imposed. In fact, they are almost useless. On the contrary, they harm the sanctioning parties, especially third parties.

For example, the sanctions imposed on Iraq during the Saddam regime failed to remove Saddam from power, which led to two military operations against Iraq. Sanctions against the Assad regime also failed. In Iran, which has been under sanctions for a long time, neither the regime has fallen nor the country has completely collapsed economically. The situation was not much different in Belarus. 

Negative Effects of Sanctions

These sanctions have not yielded the desired results and the regimes in the sanctioned countries have become stronger. Moreover, they have caused these countries to move closer to Russia and China, which the US, UK and EU see as the main threats. In other words, the sanctions did not benefit the US, the UK and the EU, but Russia and China, which they perceived as threats. 

The sanctions imposed on Russia, which is seen as one of the biggest threats, had much more negative consequences. This is because Russia has some important characteristics compared to other sanctioned countries. First of all, Russia has a much larger territory, population and economic power than countries such as Belarus, Iraq, Syria and Iran. On the other hand, Russia has the second largest number of nuclear weapons in the world. Therefore, direct military action against Russia is an option that no one can afford to take because of the potential for the conflict to turn into a nuclear catastrophe. 

Most importantly, Russia has huge hydrocarbon resources, which are the most important power today. The EU is dependent on Russia for these resources. Therefore, when the US, the UK and the EU imposed sanctions on Russia, Russia imposed its own counter-sanctions and stopped the flow of gas. This situation caused the sanctions to harm the EU as much as (or even more than) Russia. This is because while the UK and the EU are struggling to find another source country for the gas they buy from Russia, Russia is able to sell its gas to many countries, especially Turkey and China.

However, due to the prolongation of the war in Ukraine, Russia has experienced difficulties in the supply of some goods, especially technological products. In fact, it has been argued in the press and media that due to this shortage, Russia has not been able to produce enough new weapons and ammunition. For this reason, it has started to buy arms from China and Iran, whereas before it used to sell arms to the world. It is also alleged that the kamikaze drones and UCAVs it recently used in Ukraine were purchased from Iran. 

Is it Possible to Neutralize Sanctions?

With the use of these drones and UCAVs, it has become clear that imposing sanctions on a country does not work very well in today's conditions. According to media reports, Ukraine managed to capture an intact Iranian kamikaze UCAV used by Russia. When the UCAV was dismantled and disassembled by the technical teams, a big surprise was encountered. The engine of the UCAV was found to be made in Japan, while the electrical and electronic components were manufactured in European countries. 

What is even more interesting is Iran's claim that these parts were purchased through companies such as Ali Baba and Amazon, which sell these parts over the internet. If this is true, it means that while the US and the EU imposed sanctions on paper and satisfied themselves, Iranian officials opened their computers on their fancy desks in their comfortable rooms, ordered the most sensitive products online with the click of a button, and these products arrived at their doorstep through the mail. In other words, Iran easily circumvented the sanctions imposed on it.

Why Sanctions Don't Work

As is clear from this situation, technological developments in recent years have radically changed the world. Both technological advances and the expansion and diversification of relations between countries as a result of the collapse of the bipolar order after the Cold War have made the world a smaller place. Thus, in the globalized world, such complex global ties have emerged and everything has become so intertwined that it has become impossible to control everything from one point and to interrupt the networks at any point.

Other important post-Cold War developments have also made it much harder to sanction or isolate a country. For example, China, formerly a relatively backward country, has become the second largest economy in the world. Thanks to its huge production capacity, it has become an indispensable trading partner for Europe and the United States, supplying them with cheap goods. It has also become both a trading partner and a foothold for countries subjected to Western sanctions, making them less vulnerable to them.

On the other hand, the use of natural gas in homes, businesses and industry has become so widespread across Europe that Russia, as the largest energy supplier, has become of vital importance for Europe. As a result, Russia has recovered thanks to the hydrocarbon products it sells and has gradually come to the forefront of the international arena as a great power. Thus, it has tended to return to its old spheres of influence and create new spheres of influence. It has also been able to find some allies, as it has become an important pillar, like China, for the countries subjected to sanctions.

Conclusion

In conclusion, it is possible to say that sanctions, which have been imposed by the US, the UK and the EU for a long time and have not yielded the desired results, are no longer useful today. Unless armed force is used, sanctions can neither change the regime in a country nor bring about the change in behavior desired by those imposing sanctions. This is because the governments in countries faced with sanctions tighten their grip on the people by tightening the noose even more. Therefore, it is not possible for the people to revolt and change the government.

On the other hand, sanctioned countries can also find ways to get rid of these sanctions. For this purpose, they approach powerful countries that are competitors of the sanctioning countries and increase their relations with these countries. In addition, they can obtain the materials they want even from countries that impose sanctions on them through their extensive trade networks spread across the world and through e-commerce companies that have recently become more and more widespread.