Can a No-Fly Zone Be Declared Over Ukraine?

Ukraine Administration Demands Declaring No-Fly Zone:

Ukraine wants to declare a 'no-fly zone' in its airspace in order to protect its lands, and especially its civilian population, against the attacks of Russian warplanes and attack helicopters. However, it has become almost impossible for Ukraine to declare a no-fly zone to protect its civilian population and to realize it, with 60-70 warplanes against Russia, which has around 1500 warplanes. In the literature, it is not possible for the warring parties to declare a no-fly zone. At best, this is something that can be achieved by gaining air superiority or air dominance.

The Western press gave place to the messages “We want the West to protect our skies” in desperation of the Ukrainian people. Ukrainians have conveyed their demands that they want a "no-fly zone" to be declared on their television screens.

A Ukrainian woman said to the reporter, who handed her the microphone, "Ukrainian women and Ukrainian children live in deep fear because of the bombs and missiles falling from the sky."

We are witnessing footage of Russia setting fire to the residential areas of Ukraine with bombs, missiles, cruise missiles and rockets dropped from planes. For now, Western governments do not take kindly to the declaration of a no-fly zone in the skies of Ukraine, where people exposed to Russian fire in civilian settlements have lost their lives. There is no preparation and will in this direction.

Examples of No-Fly Zones

In the past, NATO has implemented a no-fly zone against Serbian aircraft and helicopters over Bosnia and Herzegovina. Within the framework of the decision taken by the United Nations, NATO started patrol duties in the no-fly zone declared over Bosnia and Herzegovina, effective from 12 August 1993. Turkish F-16 aircraft also participated in these missions. However, since the aggressive Serbian elements flying at low altitudes were not authorized to fire, the expected benefit could not be obtained from these flights at that time. However, powers were subsequently expanded. Thereupon, four Serbian planes that violated the ban were shot down by NATO warplanes on February 28, 1994, this alliance's first "de facto war intervention". During the Srebrenica massacre, a two-week NATO bombardment (Operation Decisive Force) was carried out against the Serbs. As a result of these actual flights, the Serbs were stopped.

In the 1990s, a no-fly zone was declared in northern Iraq to end the aggressive attitude of the Saddam regime against its own people. Iraqi aircraft are not allowed to fly over the no-fly zone declared by NATO allies over this area using Incirlik Air Base. However, in the north of Iraq, whose airspace was under NATO control, an 'uncontrolled' region for Turkey has emerged thanks to this practice and a playing field has been opened for the PKK. This situation led to the application of the no-fly zone in the north of Iraq, which was carried out by the Allies, and the development of a cold attitude in the Turkish public opinion.

Is It Necessary to Declare a No-Fly Zone in Ukraine?

The air umbrella Ukraine seeks has to be provided by a power. For this, first of all, a United Nations decision is needed. It was possible for NATO to declare a no-fly zone in some regions (such as the Kosovo Operation) without waiting for the UN decision. However, how will this situation be in the Russia-Ukraine war?

Russia has shown that it tends to bomb these roads from time to time, causing harm to Ukrainian civilians who evacuate cities using the roads designated as safe routes. Again, it attacked the training facilities of Ukraine's largest nuclear power plant with tank fire and caused a fire. This situation brought up the possibility of confronting the countries of the region with a nuclear disaster.

Confronted with the Russian occupation, Western countries continue to provide substantial military, financial and humanitarian aid to Ukraine. These efforts contributed to the deepening and expansion of the Ukrainian resistance. However, existing Western support has been insufficient to halt or even reduce Russia's continued aggression. Under these circumstances, the Ukrainian government and Ukrainian citizens believed that if a no-fly zone was declared over Ukrainian territory, the situation could be turned to their advantage.

Indeed, if a no-fly zone was declared over Ukraine, if a barrier could be drawn against Russian aircraft's use of the Ukrainian skies, it would undoubtedly be possible to experience fewer casualties and to minimize the damage this war caused to the Ukrainian people.

Can NATO Say Yes to This Call?

So far, this call has been directed by Ukraine to NATO, a collective security organization. NATO refuses to rule out this possibility. 

continues. The most important argument in NATO's disapproval of the no-fly zone implementation is that such an implementation would bring the possibility of dragging NATO into a war with Russia.

If Russia does not comply with the no-fly zone declaration, NATO aircraft will have to open fire on Russian aircraft to force it. As a result, NATO will suddenly become a part of the war, and the war may turn into a Russia-NATO war if Russia dares to do so. Thus, no undesirable scenario will come into play and the whole world will be faced with the possibility of a Third World War, including a global nuclear conflict.

It is estimated that approximately 2 million civilians, mostly women and children, migrated to Western countries temporarily from Ukraine. This situation leads to increased feelings of hostility towards the Russians in the Western world. The attacks of Russian warplanes and the images of dead Ukrainians, which were reflected on television screens and social media, began to stretch the Western society.

On the other hand, the USA and European states declared before the start of the war that they would not send troops to Ukraine and would not collide with the Russians. There has been no change in this direction yet. There have been rumors that 'mercenaries and volunteers' from Western society are starting to cross into this country's territory to support the Ukrainian resistance, but it is not yet clear to what extent it is true. Such covert support means that Western countries are not considering an open war against Russia for the time being.

Can Western countries that do not want to send their troops by land be expected to send their pilots from the air? Undoubtedly not! Not true.

The United Nations Security Council may ratify a no-fly zone under Article 42 of the UN Charter. Without a United Nations resolution (no one expects this decision to come out of a Security Council with China and Russia), NATO's sending warplanes to Ukraine by declaring a no-fly zone would mean directly declaring war on Russia. Nobody is ready for this and for NATO it is nothing but playing with fire!

Why does Zelensky want NATO to play with fire?

With the war that started on February 24, Zelenksky, contrary to expectations, showed a strong leadership and enabled the resistance movement in his country to gain strength. As a result, the Russian army was faced with a resistance that caused it to change its war plans and prevented the planned targets from being reached on time. It was thus possible for the Russian and Ukrainian Foreign Ministers to come together at the Antalya Diplomatic Forum, and even Putin had to accept Zelensky as his interlocutor.

However, Zelensky, who considers that it will not be possible for his people to resist for a long time in the face of overwhelming Russian supremacy, is a leader who is aware that he will eventually lose against the Russians without the de facto support of the West and especially NATO. For this reason, it sees NATO support, which will be provided from the air, if not by land, as a lifeline. He also believes that Ukraine's liberation will be possible if it succeeds in involving Western countries in the war. In this respect, in accordance with his own strategy, he tries to make emotional directions to Western civilization through television channels.

On the other hand, any action in support of Ukraine, even non-military aid, is read by the Russians as an act of war and can lead to an escalation in relations, as we have seen in the Russian discourse on economic sanctions. This reality cannot be ignored.

Is a Partial No-Fly Zone Declaration Possible?

NATO may adopt a very limited no-fly zone over Ukraine to protect humanitarian corridors and critical infrastructure, including nuclear. The humanitarian aid argument can be used for this. However, this should not be perceived as a threat by Russia and should not be seen as a hostile act. The Putin administration should be persuaded in this regard.

Will Russia accept this? Probably won't accept it. NATO does not forcibly enter Ukraine. The proposal to declare a no-fly zone, albeit partial, is put on hold before the Russian authorities as a pending NATO proposal.

Warm Interests in the No-fly Zone Application:

According to those who favor the no-fly zone implementation, the debate will arise as to whether a NATO warplane is shot down by the Russians if the no-fly zone is partially or completely declared, a violation of the famous Article 5 of the Alliance. If NATO takes a decision to this effect in secret session, it may suspend Article 5 during the implementation of the no-fly zone, where an aircraft strike is inevitable. Thus, it may be legally possible for the Alliance to implement a no-fly zone without resorting to collective defence. In this direction, progress can be made with the support of the UN and OSCE. Russia, UN and OSCE "existing measures to ensure international security" 

Russia recognizes the authority of these international organizations at least officially. By using these channels, a no-fly zone can be declared and implemented by NATO. Even without NATO getting involved in this, an Air Force to be formed under the leadership of the UN with the support of willing countries, The planes of this multinational force, which will be created as a convenient tool to prevent the further escalation of the war, can serve in the direction of peace.

Cold Views of the No-Fly Zone Application:

Those who favor the no-fly zone implementation point out that Russia's national security strategy officially defines NATO as a threat to the existence of the Russian Federation. They say that NATO's no-fly zone banning Russian planes is not acceptable, as it would be tantamount to directly declaring war on Russia. It may be almost impossible to take a NATO decision in this direction.

Conclusion

Even if a no-fly zone has been declared somehow, the existing problems will remain partially, as a ban cannot be imposed on the missile and artillery fire of Russian ground troops against the Ukrainian people. However, the implementation of a no-fly zone will be beneficial and may pave the way for a more controlled war. Considering that the details of the no-fly zone implementation will need to be planned together with the Russians, such contacts will also play a role in increasing diplomatic contacts. It will allow the conflicts between the parties to proceed intermittently in order to facilitate diplomatic contacts.

The application of a no-fly zone, which can be declared without convincing the Russians, may increase the likelihood of a third world war.

On the other hand, not declaring the no-fly zone may cause humanity to face consequences such as the complete occupation of Ukraine, genocide, humanitarian and environmental disasters. It could inevitably lead to much more serious consequences in Europe in the short-to-medium term. It can justify those who raise questions of when, if not now.