Can Turkey Stand Idly By While Iran Burns?
Every fire that breaks out around us affects us with its heat and flames. Under the current circumstances, it is impossible for us as the Turkish nation to be so oblivious as to say that Iran does not concern us and that we should mind our own business.
Everyone who lives in this region, who shares a common destiny, who can say that when it comes to the homeland, everything else is secondary, cannot remain indifferent to the developments that may occur in Iran! Those who hold state power, in particular, must consider this issue not once, but many times. A possible military intervention by the United States against Iran could bring multidimensional and serious risks for Turkey. As the people take to the streets to overthrow the regime that has held power in Iran for 46 years, the pillars of stability in the region are also about to be shaken.
As of 2024, our exports to Iran consist of machinery and parts, plastics and various chemical products, agricultural products, and metal ores, totalling USD 3.23 billion. Similarly, in terms of imports, petroleum and petroleum products (before May 2019), natural gas, metal products, and agricultural products come to Turkey from Iran, totalling USD 2.45 billion. Thus, our total trade volume is USD 5.65 billion. Trump's plan to impose a 25% additional tax at the beginning of 2026 on countries that continue to trade with Iran in light of developments in that country will naturally have a negative impact on Turkey's trade indicators. Since the applicability of the 25% tax rate currently proposed by Trump will affect all countries that have relations with Iran, including some European countries, it is necessary to adopt a common stance vis-à-vis the US not to link developments in Iran with trade ties with this country and to jointly urge Washington not to erect customs barriers as it sees fit.
Persians and Azerbaijani Turks constitute the majority, while Turkmen, Qashqai Turks, Afshars, Halachs, Kurds, Lurs, Arabs and Baluchis are other significant ethnic groups living in Iran. However, Iran, with its ancient geography, is a state that represents a tradition that has ruled these lands for 2,500 years. Although there are assessments that the geography of Iran, which stretches from the Persians to the present day and was also ruled by Turkish dynasties, should be divided among ethnic groups into small states under today's conditions, such a development has the potential to produce new results that are detrimental to Turkey. As in Syria and Iraq, Turkey's fundamental foreign policy towards its neighbours is based on strategic principles such as preserving Iran's territorial integrity, preventing the continuation of instability, and ensuring that any potential instability does not lead to a wave of migration towards Turkey.
A power vacuum in Iran could open up opportunities for the PKK-YPG axis. It could open new windows of opportunity for separatist/divisive Kurdish movements on both sides of the border. It is understood that this situation would invite new developments that could seriously jeopardise our country's border security. Given that a weakening of our border security would lead to an increase in terrorist infiltrations and smuggling activities, Turkey would need to establish a 30-40 km security belt in Iran, in addition to Syria and Iraq.
On the other hand, we know that Iran, as a traditional foreign policy tool, uses proxy forces in the region in line with its own regime expectations, particularly through its influence in Syria and Iraq, its relations with Hamas and Hezbollah, and its support for the Houthis. Consequently, the risk of Iran-backed groups launching asymmetric attacks against Turkish presence or allies in the region (Iraq and Syria) cannot be overlooked. For example, there could be potential ballistic missile or UAV attacks by the Iranian regime against Incirlik Air Base and Kürecik radar facilities, where American soldiers are stationed. However, as seen during the 12-day Israel-Iran war, it is also known that Iran, which mentions such attacks in its rhetoric, has no capacity for any serious attacks other than symbolic ones.
Meanwhile, Turkey meets approximately 15% of its natural gas needs from Iran. Trump's 25% tariff decision could negatively impact natural gas imports. If a war were to break out during winter conditions, it could lead to the gas flow from Iran to Turkey being cut off and energy costs skyrocketing for Turkey as a result. Iran is an important export market for Turkey and a transit gateway to Central Asia. In the event of war, billions of dollars worth of trade could come to a standstill. Our commercial ties with the Turkic world and the gains we have made could be at risk.
Beyond all this, it is highly likely that Turkey will face a new refugee crisis originating in Iran, following the one from Syria. A deterioration in the living standards of the Iranian people could trigger a mass wave of migration towards Europe via Turkey. For Turkey, which already hosts millions of refugees, this situation would not only lead to serious demographic disruption but also place an additional economic burden on our shoulders. How prepared are we to bear this burden?
Turkey is striving to maintain a difficult balancing act between its NATO ally, the United States, and its neighbour, Iran. It is known that communication between Washington and Tehran has mostly been facilitated through Ankara in recent days. Ankara, which plays an active role in diplomacy, must continue its efforts to reconcile the parties, to persuade the Iranian regime to act sensibly, and to call on Washington, which is putting the whole world on edge with its unpredictable actions, to uphold the rules-based world order and protect the current order it has created with its own hands.
Ultimately, every fire that breaks out around us affects us with its heat and flames. Under the current circumstances, it is impossible for us as the Turkish nation to be so oblivious as to say that Iran does not concern us and that we should mind our own business. Based on our good neighbourly relations with Iran, we must strive to extinguish the fire that has broken out in this important neighbour before it grows any further, and if there is to be a regime change in Iran, we must strive to ensure that this happens through dialogue between the regime and the street, without further bloodshed.
