China's Immediate Goal: It Might Be To Incorporate Taiwan

The Chinese president before 1949, Chiang Kai-shek, was a politician who believed in the necessity of studying Western civilization in order to make China strong. Still, he couldn't help clinging to conservative nationalism, wanting to return to a kind of Confucian and ancient Chinese society. On the other hand, the Communists led by Mao Zedong, who turned radically towards modernism and wanted to change the traditional Chinese social order, seized power at the end of the decades-long civil war and deported Chiang Kai-shek and his party members to Formaza (today's Taiwan). .

As a result of this, two different 'Chinese' states, which we can call anti-thesis of each other, came to the stage of history. The first is the massive communist-ruled People's Republic of China, or more commonly known as China, founded by Mao. The other is the nationalist Republic of China founded by Chiang Kai-shek, commonly known as Taiwan. China has never recognized Taiwan and has always considered this country as its own territory. In a way, the Sino-Taiwan 'civil' war is not over yet.

Historical Background

China was a closed state in the 19th century. Europeans have struggled for many years to enter this country and exploit its rich resources. As a result of the Opium Wars and the Boxer uprisings, by the beginning of the 20th century, the European powers led by the British and French had made China a full colonial territory.

The entry of the West into the Chinese geography triggered the emergence of nationalist movements in these lands, as in many colonial countries. Chinese nationalism, which developed as a reaction to the colonial administrations, found the opportunity to develop among the middle class and Chinese students educated with Western values. In this period, China, which was ruled by the Manchu dynasty, began to be seen as 'foreigner' by large segments fed by nationalist movements. The Manchu dynasty, which lacked the means to fight the imperialists, was also faced with a situation of constant revolt inside. As a result, instead of this dynasty that ruled China under the auspices of the colonialists, it became the main goal for Chinese nationalism, which knew the West and could fight imperialism, to come to power under the leadership of Sun Yat-sen.

Thus, the long-lasting struggle of the nationalists against the colonialists resulted in success. As a result, the dynasty that lasted for thousands of years in China was abolished and the Chinese republic was established in 1912. China under Sun Yat-sen; it had become an independent country, but a national order expected by the nationalists could not be established in the country. The domination of the warlords in the country caused the central government to remain weak and the traditional influence of the colonial countries to continue indirectly for a while.

In 1927, after the Northern Expedition, the Chinese Nationalist Party, led by Chiang Kai-shek, finally succeeded in forming a government that dominated China in general. The new Chinese state; Westphalia was established according to the world order and with an understanding that would enable it to be integrated into the global economic system. Meanwhile, there were divisions within the party, and Chiang Kai-shek tried to expel the communists, who were originally a part of the alliance that formed the party, from his party.

The central government system, led by Chiang Kai-shek, acted to build a modern and traditional China at the same time. The government tried to find a place for itself in the unstable international system that was in turmoil between the two world wars. Before the nationalists could establish a solid administrative system throughout the country, China; It was exposed to the attacks of Japan, which entered the modernization process half a century before it. Invading Manchuria in 1931 and central and eastern China in 1937, Japan prevented the nationalist government from consolidating its position in China. In this period when the government authority was weakened and the country was exposed to the Japanese invasion, the communists; It had the opportunity to gather strength within the country and to reach a favorable environment for the revolution.

China, which completed the Second World War among the victorious states; in an instant, it was shattered by a civil war and revolutionary upheaval that strained the entire order and the country's ancient heritage.

People's Republic of China (China)

In the civil war between the nationalist Chinese government forces led by the Chinese Nationalist Party (Kuomintang) and the Chinese Communist Party forces, the communists led by Mao Zedong succeeded in seizing the administration in mainland China. On October 1, 1949, in Beijing's Tienanmen Square, on the territory of what is now China (including Hainan Island), Mao Zedong proclaimed the establishment of the People's Republic of China. The founding of the People's Republic of China was immediately recognized by the Soviet Union and Eastern European countries. However, the Western world was not willing to recognize the People's Republic of China at first.

Mao Zedong was initially quick He wanted to impose an industrialization process on his people, but was not successful enough. Considering that the understanding of "bureaucratic communism" in the Soviet Union was an obstacle to China's progress, Mao and his team initiated the Cultural Revolution (which lasted for ten years) in 1966 to get rid of this structure. During this period, all schools and universities, rural areas, were made a part of Mao's ideological mobilization through the radically communist Red Guards, and dissidents in the army were purged with the purges of the party. In this process, China, which was in 'conflict' with both the USA and the Soviet Union; Due to ideological differences, it came to the brink of conflict with the Soviets in 1969. Mao, who survived this crisis, wanted to save China from loneliness by opening up to the USA and to ensure that the whole Western world contacted China. Thus, as a result of the Western world opening its doors to itself, China; It has become a part of the international system in a short time.

Deng Xiaoping, who took over the administration in 1978 with the death of Mao, pushed the traditional Chinese Political System, based on the belief that China is a "unique state" and at the top of the hierarchy, into the background. It has taken steps to modernize both society and the economy. Thus, following the path it opened, China; Today it has become the largest economy in the world.

During the Jiang Zemin period, which came to power after Deng, China; has been fully integrated into the international system and has become one of the leading players in global trade. Chinese; By deftly allaying the anxieties of his growing power in other countries under Hu Jintao, he enabled his country to become an 'economic giant' unhindered.

Today's President of China, Xi Jinping, has received the flag since 2012. Embarking on a massive reform program on the scale of Deng, Xi is leading his country with the aim of developing his great Chinese heritage and transforming his country into a global military power that reflects its economic greatness.

Republic of China (Taiwan)

The nationalist Chinese government, which completely lost control in China after the civil war, withdrew to the island of Taiwan. Chiang Kai-shek, who took refuge in this island, declared to the whole world that the Republic of China continues here. Republic of China, established under the official name of Taiwan, on the territory of the country consisting of the islands of Taiwan, Penghu, Kinmen, Matsu and other islets; It has been accepted by the majority of the world's states, especially Western countries.

In 1971, due to the changing world balances, the Republic of China (Taiwan) was 'excluded' from the United Nations membership, and the People's Republic of China was taken as a member instead. Today, the Republic of China is recognized by only 23 countries. Even today, many countries maintain unofficial commercial and cultural relations with Taiwan, which is an island state whose independence is (not) recognized by many countries.

Rising Tensions in the South China Sea in a Sino-Taiwan Context

Since 1949, the People's Republic of China has acted with a foreign policy understanding that always considers Nationalist China or Taiwan as a part of its own territory. It has never recognized Taiwan as a 'state', and has been in an attitude of preventing possible recognition attempts by other states.

The perception of Beijing, which is constantly increasing its military capacity to achieve its purpose of annexing Taiwan, worries the Western world today. Washington, which supported structures opposed to communism during the Cold War; It did not hesitate to give all kinds of support to Taiwan so that it would not be occupied by China. Today, Taiwan, which has become a developed country to a large extent with the support of the USA behind it, has had to cooperate with the USA and its allies in order to protect its independence against Greater China, which has historically been in anti-thesis status. We can say that China, which cannot seize Taiwan, which is under the "close protection" of the USA, is waiting for the appropriate time to resolve the Taiwan issue, which has increased the tension between itself and the USA.

Meanwhile, Taiwan has managed to become a member of the majority of international organizations under the name of Chinese Taipei. Today, China and Taiwan have an intense trade relationship. However, Taiwan's efforts to be recognized as a separate state, and in this context, its aspirations for UN membership, are consistently not accepted by China's veto. Mutual distrust between the two countries in the context of security continues, causing the two countries to bring up their power policies against each other from time to time.

As we have discussed in our previous articles, the American presence in the Indo-Pacific region, when considered together with the traditional US containment policy, is disturbing on the Chinese side. Many of the actions and alliance formations that the Americans have taken with their allies in the region (like AUKUS, which was established on September 16, 2021) have been driven by Beijing naturally to thwart the rise of China.

In addition, starting from the events in places like East Turkestan, the USA; The policies that oppress Beijing in international platforms regarding human rights violations are seen as part of projects to undermine China's domestic political structure.

the American side; Taking into account the possibility of rising China to end its world hegemony, it continues to besiege China, especially with its power policies. Indeed, the prospect of a growing China systematically undermining, weakening, and destroying American supremacy, and hence American security, within a few decades has become the nightmare of American foreign policy makers.

Some of the American thinkers who liken China to the Soviet Union of the Cold War era; He advises American governments to engage closely with China and to block this country, which has the potential to become a world hegemon, in advance.

China, which developed under a communist rule and became the world's largest economy with state capitalism, has a different stance with the USA on the functioning of the international system. Chinese; It does not accept that the international order has developed with the spread of liberal democracy, which the USA and England adore. In addition, China, unlike the Western world, argues that national sovereignty is much more important to a society than human rights. According to Beijing, the Western leadership; violates the sovereignty of the poor, weak countries of the world. rich countries of the West; It is putting pressure on these countries with its discourses of human rights, freedom and democracy, and is trying to continue the exploitation order they have been continuing for centuries. This approach of China is supported and accepted by some of the underdeveloped and/or developing countries.

Increasing Military Power Structure in China's Xi Period

We consider that it may be time for Beijing, which has risen to the top in the world economic system, to turn to power policies that will ensure its national interests in its immediate surroundings. In this context, China may act willingly to make border arrangements in its favor, especially in the South China Sea. In this sense, the first requirement is to reach a level of military power sufficient to enable China to win a possible regional conflict.

In this respect, China takes into account that America can strengthen its military deployment in the countries of the region by sending troops to the region with the projection of power. of the USA; South Korea, Japan, Philippines, Taiwan, Thailand, Australia etc in the region. A course of action that can act together with its allies is seen as possible by Chinese policy makers. In this counterforce structure, the biggest military threat that can force China is the American aircraft carriers and, in this context, the massive naval power.

Warplanes and helicopters can be deployed to the majority of US landing craft. Apart from these, the number of modern American aircraft carriers that can deploy a minimum of 48 F-18 caliber aircraft is 11. China's similar aircraft carrier capability is just one. While the USA has 68 nuclear/classic submarines, China has 12 nuclear/classical submarines in its inventory. There is a clear American advantage when comparing aircraft numbers. In the recent period, China's increasing armament expenditures (annual average of 250 billion dollars) remain quite low compared to the US's average annual defense expenditure of 750 billion dollars. In a simple military power comparison we have put forward here, considering the military capacities of other US ally countries, it does not seem wise for China to engage in a war with the United States in the Indo-Pacific region, especially in the open sea.

However, it seems likely that the Xi leadership is pursuing an acquisition that will reflect China's economic glory. USA; It pursues a military-oriented foreign policy in East Asia, which sees itself as an integral part of the current international balance rather than a balancer against China. Acting on the United States with its current low and insufficient level of capability could have unacceptable consequences for Beijing. Because the USA has entered a period that is ready to do everything in order not to be seen as a declining power. Although both sides have the capacity to use nuclear weapons, it can be said that both countries will stay away from dragging the world into this madness, and that such weapons can only be used as a last resort.

America may be aware that it has come to the 'end of its dream', but it does not intend to wake up from it in the near future. Since he sees China as the only power formation that can awaken him, it is considered that he is making a great effort to take all kinds of preventive and deterrent steps to stop Beijing, together with his allies.

As a matter of fact, Joe Biden has prioritized strengthening his common "front" with the democratic countries in China's periphery since he assumed the presidency.

has reached. The first sign of this is AUKUS. This new formation is the new address of countries in East and South East Asia that want to join forces against China. The core NATO of the East was established. There will be new additions to it. Including NATO-AUKUS integration may come to the agenda.

Biden; He wants to see the leaders of the Western world by his side in the competitive race to establish/protect the military superiority he started against Beijing. On the other hand, most European Union member countries are content to see China as an economic power that should be cooperated in foreign trade rather than seeing it as a threat (for now).

We can say that the USA has turned to activities and alliance formations that can put the world into a dangerous process in order to maintain its hegemon position. However, there are countless examples in history of how the balance of power could change if the number of players against China dwindled and there was a 'loyalty slip' among Western nations. Nowadays, in the East Asian balance, Biden's adoption of a purely military approach may play a triggering role, similar to the emergence of sharp alliance formations seen before the World Wars. Although it is seen as a weak possibility, it can pave the way for polarizations against the USA.

Most Likely Scenario in the Near Term: Invasion of Taiwan

In any case, it has become the traditional policy of American administrations to prevent hegemony in Asia. In terms of China, we are witnessing that it is an inevitable policy to keep a hostile America away from its close circle. In our opinion, China; First of all, it continues its military preparations to annex Taiwan in order to end the division between the Chinese. We can make the inference that Beijing doesn't want to go to war with the United States unless it has to. Its priority is Taiwan. It is considered that China will act with the "peaceful use of force", with the desire to annex Taiwan.

If Beijing succeeds in this course of action, it will partially alienate the United States from its close circle. In fact, in the global power struggle between the two countries, it will be possible to pave the way for the superiority of the situation to pass to China.

The example of the USA, which had to choose to remain silent in the 2008 Georgian and 2014 Crimean occupation by the Russian Federation, is an encouraging reminder for China. When it comes to its own interests, it is known that the USA can leave even its allies who need its own support "alone" in the face of a great power. Against a China capable of annexing Taiwan, the same policy of 'silence' could be pursued by Washington for the sake of greater global interests. However, for this, Beijing needs to make a certain amount of progress in convincing the USA, in the formation of a 'military power'.

As we mentioned above, China does not yet have an aircraft carrier structure that can cope with the USA. Its biggest advantage is the geographical proximity of its territory to Taiwan. The distance between the two countries is about 150 kilometers. Taiwan, which is in a position open to missile launches by China, can easily be rendered incapable of using its air power by bomber attacks. The only factor that could hinder the invasion of Taiwan by amphibious operation is the US military presence in the region, especially aircraft carriers. In order to keep the Americans and especially aircraft carriers out of the South China Sea, Beijing has built 7 artificial islands, each of which has a military square, in recent years. This has made the islands a kind of fixed aircraft carrier. In a possible Taiwan operation; The biggest military formation that can give China regional superiority over American forces and eventually facilitate its invasion of Taiwan will be the Chinese military bases/deployment on these islands.

Washington; To Beijing's flattery, it may "quietly consent" to the incorporation of Taiwan into Chinese territory through peaceful negotiations, somewhat similar to its preference for the People's Republic of China in 1971.

Conclusion

If it annexes Taiwan, a Chinese and American foreign policy that will achieve its goal to a certain extent can meet on common ground. The rivalry between the two countries; economic, political and diplomatic fields may be considered sufficient for a while. The mutual avoidance of these two gigantic states from the politics of military power could ease the tension in the Indo-Pacific region. Such an orientation may serve to maintain global peace, while at the same time providing a longer-term continuation of American hegemony. The establishment of a hegemony based on economic power by a China that has not traditionally 'occupied someone else's land' may be considered sufficient for its own global policies after the annexation of Taiwan. Thus, the risk of experiencing the possible Sino-US Cold War process can be eliminated. The world can breathe a sigh of relief.

References that we used in this study

Emerson R. (1965). colonize Nationalization of the World, Trans. Ataöv T., Turkish Political Sciences Association Publications, Number 11, Ankara.

Overholt W.H. (2008). Asia, America, and The Transformation of Geopolitics, Cambridge University Press, New York.

Kissinger H. (2014). World Order, Trans.Gul S.S., Boyner Publications, 4th Edition, Istanbul.