ECOWAS and/or US-France Joint Military Operation in Niger Despite Russian Wagner's Support?

As far as I can follow the news, life in Niamey, the capital of Niger, seems to be relatively calm after the storm that broke out with the overthrow of President Mohamed Bazoum on 26 July 2023. On the other hand, this calmness seems a bit deceptive to me. Because, despite the calm, tensions are gradually rising.

While ECOWAS (Economic Community of West African States) reiterates its determination to intervene militarily to restore Bazoum, who was elected to power in 2021, Niger's neighbours Burkina Faso and Mali continue to reiterate their support for the ruling junta. To this end, the three countries (Niger, Burkina Faso and Mali) decided the other day to set up a joint secretariat for security matters. In the event of an attack by ECOWAS on Niger's territory, the defence and security forces of Burkina Faso and Mali are expected to side with Niger. The leader of the military junta, Brigadier General Abdurrahman Tchiani, President of the National Council of Niger, does not hide that he welcomes this. 

Could the military coup in Niger create a domino effect?

In response, two days ago, ECOWAS declared to the coup leaders who seized power in Niger on Friday 25 August that they still had time to reconsider and that regional leaders would not condone the coup in Niger. ECOWAS also rejected the Niger junta's proposal for a three-year transition to democratic rule as a "provocation", which it said was unacceptable. The bloc believes that allowing and recognising the coup in Niger will create a domino effect in the region and wants to take a determined stance to stop it.

The Sahel, a vast semi-arid region stretching from the Atlantic Ocean to the Red Sea, is a strip of land sandwiched between the Sahara Desert in the north and tropical savannas in the south. The Sahel line passes through Senegal, Mauritania, Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger, Nigeria, Chad and parts of Sudan. Most of the countries along this line are characterised by deep-rooted poverty, illegitimate or weak governments, catastrophic climate change and other problems. Under these circumstances, terrorism is used by militants in these countries as a tool to pursue different illegal objectives.

Taking this general framework into account, the situation in Niger needs to be analysed. As a matter of fact, despite its sharp rhetoric, the West African regional bloc does not seem to be ready to enter Niger to suppress the coup plotters. For now, I have the impression that a military intervention option is kept on the table on the basis of rhetoric. In my opinion, ECOWAS will emphasise a diplomatic approach rather than a military option in the coming days. Nevertheless, ECOWAS emphasises that the door to diplomacy with the Niger junta is open, but the bloc will not engage in protracted negotiations that lead nowhere. The bloc is not in favour of protracted negotiations with the military government in Niger. The reason given for this is that it has done so before in Mali, Burkina Faso and elsewhere, but these negotiations have been protracted and have led nowhere. On the other hand, it is ironic that ECOWAS leaders are continuing talks in Niger with the military governments in Mali, Burkina Faso and Guinea, which are working towards a transition to democracy.

Coups and sanctions

Following the military overthrow of Niger's President Mohamed Bazoum on 26 July, ECOWAS announced on 10 August its intention to deploy a West African force to restore constitutional order in Niger, but no movement has yet been observed. As a result, the junta in Niger continues to keep ousted President Bazoum, his wife and son under house arrest. ECOWAS, on the other hand, demands the release of Bazoum, the restoration of constitutional order and the re-election of the elected President Bazoum as the head of Niger.

Following two coups in Mali and Burkina Faso since 2020, ECOWAS declares that it considers Niger as its red line to prevent another coup in the region. The bloc started to impose serious economic and travel sanctions against Niger. It threatened to use military force if Bazoum is not reinstated, but the junta has not stepped back yet and they do not show any intention to do so. Moreover, the junta stated that there would be no going back and appointed a new government. Tchiani and his entourage claim that they will return the country to democratic rule within a few years. Of course, this is an open-ended discourse. It is not credible.

The African Union Peace and Security Council also announced last Tuesday that it was suspending Niger's participation in all activities of African Union organs and institutions pending the effective restoration of constitutional order, indirectly declaring its support for ECOWAS.

Niger is the West's Regional Anti-Terrorism Base 

Before the coup d'état, Niger was seen as one of the countries in the Sahel region under the Sahara desert, where Western countries had joined forces to crush the growing jihadist insurgency linked to Al-Qaeda and ISIL. France, among other European countries, and the United States of America have jointly poured hundreds of millions of dollars into equipping and training the Niger army. They organised joint operations together.

The 2023 Global Terrorism Index shows that in 2022, 43 per cent of the world's deaths from terrorism will occur in the Sahel region. Burkina Faso ranks second in this index, just behind Afghanistan, with 8,564 victims. Somalia, Mali and Syria are ranked 3rd, 4th and 5th respectively. According to the document, Pakistan, Iraq, Nigeria, Burma and Niger come next. 

Since the coup, military operations within the scope of the fight against terrorism centred on Niger have been suspended. Last year, Paris decided to make Niger the centre of its Sahel operations and deployed around 1,500 French soldiers in Niger. Niger, a former French colony, gained independence in 1960. In recent months, anti-French sentiment has been on the rise in France's former colonies in West Africa. After the coup, Niger has become the place where this opposition is most intense. At the beginning of August, the junta announced that it would cancel several military cooperation agreements with France made under the ousted President. Last Friday, 25 August, the military government ordered the French ambassador to leave Niger within 48 hours, claiming that the French government was acting against the interests of the Niger people. The junta accuses Paris of planning a military intervention in the country to reinstate Bazoum. It also claims that the West African bloc ECOWAS is "at France's disposal".

Like France, the United States has around 1,100 military personnel stationed in the country. Niger is the largest US drone base and counter-terrorism centre in Africa. Over the last decade, the United States has invested around $500 million to train and equip Niger's military to combat al-Qaeda and ISIS-linked militant organisations terrorising the Sahel. The US has activated a drone base to collect intelligence and monitor cross-border movements of armed groups in the north of the country with its troops on the ground. According to the US, the wave of coups in the Sahel is now putting this co-operation and progress at risk.

Can ECOWAS and the US-France duo organise a joint operation in Niger?

According to the sources, it is known that ECOWAS has not made any military plans with any external partner and has not held talks in this direction. ECOWAS, and therefore Niger's southern neighbour Nigeria, states that everything will be done based on the resources of the member states. Earlier this month, ECOWAS announced that 11 of its 15 member states had agreed to military intervention to overthrow the junta in Niger as a final solution if diplomatic talks with Niger failed.

ECOWAS is still hoping that pressure on Niger through sanctions will work. There are calculations that this could trigger unrest within the junta, leading to a mobilisation for a transition to the old order in the country. Junta leader Tchiani's face-to-face meeting with ECOWAS representatives after many attempts is read as a sign that the coup leaders feel the pressure.

Will Algeria's Diplomatic Efforts between ECOWAS and Niger Bring Results?

Meanwhile, Algeria continues its mediation efforts. Algerian diplomacy has a long history of mediating or attempting to resolve numerous international conflicts. Indeed, last week, Algerian Foreign Minister Ahmed Attaf travelled to Nigeria, Benin and Ghana to try to find a way out of the Niger crisis. Algeria is endeavouring to convince Niger and the entire region of a political solution that would protect it from the worst repercussions of a possible escalation. 

On 6 August, Algeria issued a statement categorically rejecting any external military intervention in Niger. It is not yet clear whether Algeria, which is understood that ECOWAS does not favour the military intervention option and the use of force in this context, will be an effective mediator. The bilateral meeting traffic, which started on Wednesday last week, continues. Algeria has also launched a round of talks with the three ECOWAS countries (Nigeria, Benin and Ghana) for consultations on the crisis in Niger and ways to deal with it.

Algeria, which says "there is no solution without us", shares a border of about 1,000 kilometres to the north with Niger. Algeria says it should look at the situation in Libya and Syria, which have already been subjected to military intervention. Algeria, the largest country in Africa, does not want to open a third front on its borders, as it borders two countries in the grip of deep crises (Mali and Libya). Algeria fears that if ECOWAS intervenes in Niger, Mali and Burkina Faso, which have declared their support for this country, will enter the war together with Niger, and that a military operation against the Niger junta will cause the whole Sahel to go up in flames.

Prigozhin Dead, but Wagner Continues to Shield Niger's Military Government

After Russia seized Ukraine's Crimean Peninsula by force, the United States and Europe began to isolate Moscow from the rest of the world. In response, Russia has been trying to penetrate Africa since 2014. Russia's interests in Africa include arms sales, UN votes and access to natural resources. In this context, Russian President Vladimir Putin organised a summit with African leaders and delegations in St Petersburg last month. Russia is endeavouring to present itself as a viable player in the Global South. It is trying to worry the West in this regard and to increase its bargaining power in other areas. In this sense, the Wagner Group continues to be a useful apparatus for Russia.

In this context, the military junta in Niger hopes that Russia will support them through Wagner. Indeed, Kremlin-linked Yevgeny Prigozhin had offered support to the coup leaders before his death, but it was not yet clear what the group could do in the short term. On the other hand, the junta needed foreign support and recognition. What Wagner could have offered in the short term was to act as a catalyst to ensure that the military leadership was recognised and supported by the Kremlin. This would have prevented the possibility of a military intervention by ECOWAS against the junta, which could have enlisted Russia behind it.

Wagner had to recruit people to support the coup leaders in Niger. On the other hand, Wagner's failed rebellion in Russia had made the future of the group's current commitments in Africa uncertain. Now Prigozhin's death made the situation even more uncertain. Nevertheless, the Niger military leadership still expects Wagner to help the region. However, Russia lacks the historical, economic and diplomatic ties with Niger necessary to facilitate Wagner's co-operation in the region.

Currently, Wagner has some 1,000 troops stationed in Mali (with military trainers) and Libya, as well as in Sudan, near Niger. It also has forces in the Central African Republic. Wagner does not appear to have enough heavy equipment to help Niger counter ECOWAS. In fact, Wagner's assets in Africa are mainly Kalashnikovs and a pool of Toyota vehicles.

Conclusion

After 26 July, developments in the Sahel, centred on Niger, have been a fertile ground for Russia's engagement in the region. The people of the region, who are disorientated under the rule of fragile governments, share widespread anti-Western sentiments against France, Britain and the West in general, the representatives of colonial culture. That is why they see Russia and Wagner, the Kremlin's shadow in Africa, as their saviour. The prophet Prigozhin is dead, but his spirit is likely to live on for some time as the hope of salvation for the people of the region. If Wagner (it may be under another name), which will be revived around a new leader in the direction that Moscow will show, can take a strong stance on the side of Niger, I think that ECOWAS may not have a chance to intervene in the junta regime. 

On the other hand, if the US and ECOWAS can make the junta in Niger step back and hand over power to the civilian administration, this will have positive repercussions in the Sahel. The coup leaders in Mali and Burkina Faso are stalling with their promises to ECOWAS in order to preserve their power. If ECOWAS can show that it is not toothless, the military regimes in Mali and Burkina Faso may allow a transition to civilian rule. In the final analysis, in order to optimise their interests in the region, France and the United States, if they cannot come to an agreement with the military government of Niger, may launch a military operation in coordination with ECOWAS today or tomorrow, clinging to the rhetoric of bringing democracy.

Reference

AfricaNews, Nigeriens react to news of death of Wagner chief, 25 August 2023, https://www.africanews.com/2023/08/25/nigeriens-react-to-news-of-death-of-wagner-chief/

Todd Prince, "Niger Coup Puts West In Tough Spot As Wagner Eyes More Africa Opportunities", Radio Free Europe Radio Liberty, 9 August 2023, https://www.rferl.org/a/niger-coup-wagner-mercenaries-russia-africa-west/32541190.html

Hüseyin FAZLA, "Why is Western-backed Nigeria/ECOWAS conducting an operation against Russia-backed Niger?", STRASAM, 6 August 2023, https://strasam.org/savunma/askeri-harekat/bati-destekli-nijerya-ecowas-rusya-destekli-nijere-neden-operasyon-duzenliyor-2221