Food Crisis Is Coming, Why Did We Forget GAP?

What is GAP?

GAP (Southeast Anatolia Project) The geography in which the GAP is located is the fertile Upper Mesopotamian lands where the first civilizations were born and developed.

GAP, the largest integrated regional development project of the Republic of Turkey, started with great enthusiasm 40 years ago, and faced many social, economic and political problems throughout its progress. In the end, he failed to realize the high hopes placed on him as expected.

If the irrigation and agricultural production pillars of the GAP had been completely completed in this period when food security became prominent in our country and in the world, we would have a great food supply security advantage both today and for the future.

GAP's Purpose and Development Process

A total of 22 dams and 19 hydroelectric power plants with an installed power of 7,302 MW will be built in the GAP, and it is planned to generate 26.9 billion kWh of hydroelectric energy per year. In addition, according to the GAP Action Plan, 1.058 million hectares of agricultural land would have the opportunity to irrigate when the project was completed (Source: Southeastern Anatolia Project Latest Status 2019 GAP RDA).

With the GAP, which covers 9 provinces in the region, it was aimed to eliminate the development differences between the regions and to provide economic and social development by increasing the productivity and employment in the rural area.

The first studies on the Euphrates and Tigris rivers, which are the water resources of the GAP, started in 1936 in line with the directive given by Atatürk. DSI, which was established in 1954, has increased its activities in the region. Seven project packages on the Euphrates and six on the Tigris basin were combined to form the infrastructure of the GAP, a bundle of 13 projects.

Construction of the Atatürk Dam started in 1981. SPO was appointed in 1986 for coordination in the region. In the 1989-2005 GAP Master Plan, a serious change was foreseen in Southeastern Anatolia and the things to be done were tied to a certain schedule. In 1985, the GAP Regional Development Administration was established for these works.

Agricultural Development Will Be Provided and the Southeast Will Become an Export Region

The main strategy in the Master Plan was to ensure agricultural development and to make the Southeast an export region. It turned out that the GAP could not be completed in 2005 due to financing problems and political developments in neighboring countries.

On the other hand, sensitivity to environmental issues increased in the world, and concepts such as participation, sustainability of development and gender-balanced development came to the fore. For these reasons, there was a need to prepare a new plan that would bring a different approach to the development of the region.

First Goal: It was the Year 2010

With the decision of the Council of Ministers taken in June 1998, 2010 was determined as the target year for the completion of all investments in the GAP and the GAP Regional Development Plan (BKP) was prepared. This plan, which includes principles such as people-orientedness, participation, sustainability, human development and social development, also had an "action plan" covering the projects to be implemented. Within the scope of this action plan, there were 73 “Key Actions” and more than 300 “Projects and Activities”. The total resource need of the Plan, which covers the 2002-2010 period, was calculated as 23.4 billion dollars at 1998 prices. 12 billion dollars of these investments come from public sector resources; the remaining $11.4 billion investment would be covered by the private sector.

New Target Year: 2018-New Action Plan (2012-2018)

It turned out that the project could not be completed in 2010. A new action plan has been prepared. Within the scope of the 2012-2018 action plan, 115 “Key Actions” and 494 “Projects and Activities” took place. As can be seen, the project's plan targets and development axes were constantly revised as the completion time of the project extended. The GAP Regional Development Program (2021-2023), which started to be implemented after the GAP Action Plan covering the years 2014-2018, consisted of 3 objectives, 9 targets and 15 sectoral operational programs (SOP).

Within this scope, the objectives of "Increasing Competitiveness in Agriculture and Sustainable Environment", "Economic Growth in Tourism and Industry" and "Developing Human and Institutional Capacity" were included in the 2021-2023 Action Plan of the GAP Regional Development Program.

GAP's Share of Public Investments Has Continually Decreased

The share of the GAP Region in total public investments has gradually decreased every year since 2013. During this period, the share of investments in the energy and agriculture sector was 45%. The creation of an agro-industrial complex and other sectors for the development of the region were left behind. These shares were respectively public services (16.3%), education (14.9%) and transportation (11.1%), Manufacturing and Tourism (008%). In the GAP Regional Development Program 2021-2023 Action Plan, it was stated that it is important for the region to increase the share allocated, starting with the Manufacturing and Tourism sectors.

Farmer Education Studies Are Insufficient

One of the most important issues in the areas that have been or will be irrigated in the GAP Region is to improve the capacities of institutions and organizations, especially farmer organizations, that provide agricultural training services. For this purpose, the “GAP Agricultural Education and Extension Project” was initiated. In this project, work started with 20 farmer organizations in 2014, and this number increased to only 51 in 2019. This revealed that the infrastructure of the project was insufficient for the agricultural production and development goals.

What Happened at GAP?

While the Master Plan was being prepared, the GAP's feature of being an integrated project, which also included sanctions on agriculture, industry, transportation, education, health and rural infrastructure, weakened as the completion of the project was delayed. This situation also caused the connections of the project components to weaken and product pattern planning could not be implemented in the project. Criticism of the project has increased as it is disconnected from the realities and needs of the people of the region and cannot achieve the promised changes within the stipulated time.

Essentially, a total regional development was aimed with the project. However, the inadequacy of the funds allocated to the project, the socio-economic and cultural differences of the region from other regions, and the terrorism problems affected the overall progress of the project. In addition, the training of the farmer and the preparation of the soil could not be carried out in coordination with the agricultural infrastructure during the project.

Developments With GAP:

-While the labor force participation rate in the region was 34% in 2007, it reached 46.1% in 2019.  The employment rate, which was 28.3% in 2007, increased to 35.7% in 2015.
-Regional exports, which were 3.3 billion dollars in 2007, reached 8.8 billion dollars in 2015.
-8 organized industrial zones (OIZ) and 10 small industrial sites (CSR) have been completed in the region. The number of OIZs in the Region increased to 18 and the number of SIS to 38.
-The share of exports from the region in the country's overall exports increased from 3.1% to 6.1%.
-There was an increase of 168% in the exports of the region,
-New universities were established in the region and the schooling rate increased,
-The number of hospitals in the region and the capacities of existing hospitals have increased,
-Transport services also increased; highways, new airports were built.

Project Completion May Take 2040

GAP has been a project where developments in the field of technological and new management models have been experienced and implemented by two generations. Postponing the completion date many times resulted in a decrease in social expectations from the project, unrest and some deviations from the project goals. However, despite this, the project continued by keeping up with the changes. Since the beginning of the GAP implementation, there have been many changes and developments in the fields of water management, security, economy and international relations, as well as scientific and technological advances in the world.

First of all, the prolongation of the completion time of the project led to the emergence of a GAP with more flexible boundaries and broader objectives. The flexibility of GAP made it possible for the project to be continuously developed and reproduced.

GAP Dams:

Within the scope of the GAP, the construction of 22 dams, 19 hydroelectric power plants and irrigation networks was planned. To date, 19 dams and 14 HEPPs have been completed and 91.2% physical realization has been achieved in energy investments. The share of GAP in 88.9 billion kilowatt-hours of hydraulic energy produced throughout the country in 2019 was 25.6% with 22.8 billion kilowatt-hours. In the GAP, 571,591 hectares were irrigated and the irrigation target of the plan was achieved at a rate of 54%.

Considering the targets expected from the Project, it may take 2040 to complete the GAP with all its functions. Mass migrations from across the border to the region, military and international political developments in the region are reshaping the regional impact of the GAP on a larger scale, as well as extending the completion time of the project. For example, the GAP Region, by accepting the majority of the mass migrations caused by the civil wars in the region, prevented the problem from growing further. Almost one third of all Syrian refugees in Turkey live in Şanlıurfa and Gaziantep.

Why Are Irrigation Projects Delayed?

There was a delay in reaching the irrigation and agricultural production targets in the GAP. Along with the irrigation projects, the steps to prepare the farmers, soil, irrigation unions, storage and logistics services and marketing opportunities were not coordinated.

There were various disruptions in this due to the security, socio-economic and socio-cultural characteristics of the region. For example, failure to comply with the planned crop pattern and improper irrigation in the Harran Plain caused a part of the soil to become saline. Some irrigation projects had to add drainage systems later. Issues such as cotton cultivation in the region far exceeding the plan targets, the weaknesses in the institutional structure of irrigation unions, and the transfer of these organizations to the financial and administrative control of DSI were among the factors that slowed the pace of progress in irrigation projects.

GAP is the Key to Food Security of Turkey and the Region

Besides the region-specific challenges, Turkey's shortcomings in establishing a National Agricultural Policy have limited the development of agricultural production potential in the GAP and reduced the broad-based benefits of the project.

However, the GAP has reached today as an integrated water-based development project that has not stopped completely despite its slowdown in this region.

GAP is the only water-based regional development project under development in the North Africa and Middle East Region and has a key role in ensuring the food supply security of both Turkey and the region. In this project, which consists of 1,058 million hectares of priority irrigation area, there is a need to rapidly establish an integrated watershed management approach.

Conclusion:

Today, when agriculture is widely accepted as a strategic sector, GAP strengthens our hand in this strategic sector. The strategic, economic and geopolitical importance of the water and soil infrastructure in the GAP will increase day by day. Therefore, we must make a new move for the GAP. In order to benefit from the GAP in our national interests, we must carefully create innovative strategies, financing and production models. In other words, in the words of our late President Süleyman Demirel, we should not make the GAP GAP.