Gaza and Beyond-6: For What Purpose are Saudi Arabia and the UAE Showing Flags in the Mediterranean?

In Chapter 1 of Gaza and Beyond, I explained the historical development of Gaza. In Chapters 2-5, I tried to explain the objectives of some countries in the region under the title "Which Country Wants to be in the Mediterranean and Why?" In this chapter, I continue my series of articles with Saudi Arabia and the UAE.

The Importance of the Mediterranean and the Middle East for Saudi Arabia and the UAE 

Saudi Arabia is one of the largest countries in the Middle East and has historical, cultural and religious significance. The country occupies a large part of the Arabian Peninsula and is located in both the Northern Hemisphere and the Eastern Hemisphere. It is bordered to the east by the UAE, Qatar, the Persian Gulf and Iran, to the west by the Red Sea, Egypt and Sudan, to the south by Yemen and Oman, and to the north by Kuwait, Iraq and Jordan.

Saudi Arabia is an important country in the Middle East and home to the holy lands of Islam.

The 2011 Arab Spring uprisings began the transformation of politics in Tunisia, Egypt, Libya and Syria. The political turmoil engulfing these Mediterranean littoral states has created new threats and new opportunities for the wealthy states of the Arabian Peninsula - Qatar, the UAE and Saudi Arabia. Events involving economic aid, political support and, at times, military assistance have also shaped Arab countries' relations and competition with each other. This ideologically based rivalry has become part of the Gulf states' religious or dynastic existential issues in different geographies.

This rivalry in the Gulf has made the Middle East arena, and the Mediterranean in particular, an important stage. The roles of Qatar and Turkey, with whom relations have deepened considerably, vis-à-vis the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia, which are on two different poles in regional politics, and Iran's Shiite crescent aspiration, fundamentally affect the Eastern Mediterranean geopolitics through these political antagonisms. In particular, the intention of the US to reduce its power in the Middle East geography also fuels regional and religious power competition.

While the Gulf states' interest in the Eastern Mediterranean has steadily increased, Europe has been increasingly drawn into the many conflicts in the Middle East and North Africa. The spillover of the Gulf states' power struggles to the Eastern Mediterranean has exacerbated the already challenging regional problems for the regional states, the US, the UK, France and Germany.  

This recently increased competition in the Mediterranean was first experienced in Egypt during and after the 2011 Arab Spring revolution. Saudi Arabia evaluated the political events in Egypt, which is located in its region, in terms of benefits for itself. It wanted to act in partnership with Egypt against Iran's Shiite crescent and to use the Egyptian state and its troops, known to be Sunni, in its other regional problems, including Yemen. 

In 2011, the UAE and Qatar intervened in Libya under the leadership of NATO and the Arab League to overthrow Colonel Muammar Gaddafi. However, with the internal division that started in 2014, they started to support different poles. The UAE, with the support of Egypt, started to provide military support and financial aid to General Khalifa Haftar. 

The events that started with Iran and the Mullah regime, the Arab Spring and the political changes in Egypt have created a domino effect in the emergence of the current problems in the region one by one. The conflicts in Libya and Syria in particular have turned into proxy wars, reflecting the struggle for power and influence that defines the crisis in the Gulf. 

The most serious threat to the Gulf states since 1979 has been Iran's military capacity. Iran's large number of military personnel, its progress in missile and drone technologies, its use of actors such as Hezbollah in the field, its ambition to become a nuclear power and its aggressive behavior have been seen as a very important source of threat by the Gulf states. For the Gulf states, Tehran's ambition to rise to the nuclear league in military technology and its potential to change the regional balance of power are influential in the perception of Tehran as a threat. The concern that if the Iranian nuclear program succeeds, Iran's chances of gaining regional supremacy will increase has been a common concern of almost all Gulf states. 

The Saudi - UAE axis, whose national economies are heavily dependent on energy exports, has also faced serious economic losses and problems due to the developments in the global energy market in recent years (such as the extreme drop in oil prices during the pandemic period). The developments in the global energy market, which have politically and economically weakened the position of the Saudi - UAE axis in the region, have not only been an economic concern for these countries, but have also turned into a national security issue in their countries as a result of the losses due to the energy revenue-dependent character of their economies. 

Another important dimension of regime security for the Gulf countries ruled by kingdoms and dynasties is the issue of survival. Securing the future of the king, the dynasty and therefore the state is seen as the main objective of these countries. 

In the events unfolding in Syria, Russia's stand with Iran against the opposition in Syria, which is supported by Saudi Arabia and Riyadh, remains on the table as an important factor that prevents the two countries from establishing long-term strategic alliances.

Especially after November 2015, Russia's intensive airstrikes and attacks against ISIS, the terrorist organization in Syria, as well as Islamist organizations supported by Saudi Arabia, have led to the shrinking of Saudi Arabia's sphere of influence in Syria.

One of the most important developments at the G20 leaders' summit held in New Delhi, the capital of India, on September 9-10, 2023 was the new trade route initiative announced by the leaders of the US, India, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates to connect India to the Middle East and Europe. 

The project, named "India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor - IMEC", which excludes Turkey, envisages that ships departing from the Indian port of Mumbai will dock in Dubai, from where they will follow the Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Israel route by railroad to create a shipping route to Europe via the Mediterranean. 

The corridor is planned to enter Europe via the Greek port of Piraeus and reach the port of Hamburg in northern Germany.

The United Arab Emirates (UAE), Saudi Arabia, the European Union (EU), France, Italy, Germany, as well as the United States, which is not on the corridor route, are among the signatories.

The US administration sees the project as an alternative to Beijing's Belt and Road Initiative, which was launched nearly 10 years ago and aims to connect China to the world.

With this project, India is trying to become a commercial alternative to China and to strengthen its relations with Armenia through Greece, the SCGA and Iran.

Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has stated that this economic project will contribute to the development of railroad networks and infrastructure in his country and will offer business opportunities in the long term. He noted that the economic corridor would increase trade between India, the Middle East and Europe and contribute to the expansion of pipelines and transmission lines for the export of electricity and hydrogen.

India, in particular, is said to have great potential in hydrogen production thanks to the country's huge solar power plants. The New Delhi government plans to provide $2 billion in incentives to develop the hydrogen industry and sees Europe as the central target market.

Importance of IMEC

While it is stated that railways are not sufficiently developed in Greece, the closest EU port to IMEC, due to both mountainous geography and lack of financing, IMEC requires the construction of a railway network in the desert in Saudi Arabia and the UAE. The costs of railways to be built in the desert are also considered to be very high.

Saudi Arabia is trying to increase its political and religious influence in the Gulf and the Mediterranean by rapprochement with China yesterday and India today, supported by the US.

The Egyptian state's support for Bashar al-Assad and Russia over Saudi Arabia against the Bashar al-Assad regime in Syria and Saudi Arabia's African policies also disturb the Egyptian state. Historically, the Egyptian state and Saudi Arabia have had different perspectives on the causes of Arab nationalism and Islamism. 

Iran and Saudi Arabia are not directly at war, but the forces they support are pitted against each other in many conflicts and wars across the region. Syria is the clearest example. In Yemen, the Saudis accuse Iran of supplying Houthi rebels with ballistic missiles aimed at them. 

The conflicts between Saudi Arabia and Iran have a negative impact on the security of the Middle East. This is because, instead of fighting each other directly, both countries are waging proxy wars over the lands and people of other countries and trying to prevent each other. Therefore, due to this attitude of both states, many crises and problems have emerged in the region or existing problems have been prolonged. When the relations between the two countries are analyzed, it is possible to say that the possibility of mutual reconciliation is almost non-existent. 

Iran seems to advocate the Shiite Crescent and Saudi Arabia the Sunni expansion.  In this framework, the problems in Iraq, Syria, Yemen and Lebanon, which were created and magnified by other countries in the region, have been prolonged.

Instead of a united stance against DAESH and similar organizations created in the region, religious and ethnic elements fighting against DAESH have emerged with the support of imperialist countries with weapons and money to ethnic forces in the region. 

Saudi Arabia and the UAE are trying to express their distance from Turkey's policies in the Mediterranean by participating in military exercises with Greece. In addition, Israeli-Greek cooperation in the region is also growing.

On September 28, 2018, Jamal Khashoggi arrived at the Saudi Arabian embassy to settle his marriage with Hatice Cengiz and never came out alive.  The issue seems to be a grenade that was intended to be thrown between Saudi Arabia and Turkey. It is another fact that new formations and unions will not be allowed in the region and for this reason, all kinds of games have been and will continue to be played by the imperial countries and their intelligence units. It is possible to understand from these and similar events that countries in the region will never be allowed to unite around a cause.

In recent years, Saudi Arabia has been subjected to tanker and drone attacks, especially against its oil production facilities. These incidents have shown that the air defense systems Saudi Arabia procured from the United States at great cost are inadequate. Saudi Arabia wants to stop Iran's dream of a Shiite crescent in the region by improving its relations with Russia. The Iranian factor is of paramount importance in the development of Saudi-Russian relations. 

In December 2022, Saudi Arabia put forward 3 conditions to join the Abraham Accords with Israel. These are: 

1) The formalized US-Saudi alliance. 

2) Arms supplies from the US equivalent to being in the NATO alliance. 

3) Approval of a small-scale Saudi civilian nuclear energy program is a condition.

Russia's growing influence in the Middle East over the past decade, coupled with both countries' dissatisfaction with current oil prices, adds a new dimension to Russian-Saudi Arabia relations. 

A source close to the Saudi government said that Riyadh has decided to suspend possible normalization talks with Israel amid the ongoing war between Israel and Hamas.

The ongoing war between Israel and the Gaza-based Palestinian armed resistance group Hamas has also pushed the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia to engage with Iran, with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman making his first phone call to Iranian President Ibrahim Reisi after the outbreak of hostilities.

US President Biden made assessments on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict at an aid meeting. According to this assessment, Biden said; "They knew that I would sit at the table with the Saudis. The Saudis wanted to recognize Israel." Biden said that one of the reasons why Hamas attacked Israel was to disrupt the normalization process between Israel and Saudi Arabia.