How Did the Russia-Ukraine War Start?

The British Have Opened the Russian Invasion Plan:

On February 19, the British Ministry of Defense published Russia's plan for a possible two-stage invasion of Ukraine. In the statement, it was stated that Russia could carry out an invasion without warning.

According to this plan, in the first phase of the operation, Russian troops would move from Belarus to the capital, Kiev, from two different points, and the soldiers stationed on Russian territory in the northeast of Ukraine would also support these troops. The troops in the east, on the other hand, would move inland, passing the separatist regions from two separate points. The aim of the operation, which would be supported by the Russian soldiers stationed in Crimea, was to capture the city of Dnipro. In the second phase of the operation, it was to advance from Dnipro to Vinnytsia and from Crimea to Odessa.

Russians Say They Have No Plans to Invade Ukraine:

After the plan was published, Western countries warned Russia against a possible invasion, while Moscow insisted that it had no plans to invade Ukraine. Russia, who wanted security guarantees, demanded that Ukraine not be included in NATO. However, most alliance member countries stated that the open door policy will continue.

Despite Russia's declaration that it had no intention to invade, the developments that took place showed that the war was now very close. For example, according to the decree published by Putin on the official Russian information website, a call was made for Russian citizens who are in reserve status to receive military training.

Putin's 21 February Speech to His People:

Putin's statements were also showing that it was only a matter of time before the war started. In his address to the public on February 21, Putin argued that the Donbas region was historically Russian territory. Saying that his country was robbed with the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, Putin accused Ukraine of being an American colony, which he claimed was ruled by a puppet government, and described the protests in 2014 that overthrew the pro-Russian leader as a coup.

Claiming that Ukraine is not a real nation, Putin accused the Ukrainian authorities of corruption and racism. Putin also claimed that Kiev aims to acquire nuclear weapons, that they have information inherited from the Soviet era in order to do this, and that the Ukrainian administration wants a conflict to break out. "The admission of Ukraine to NATO is a security threat to Russia," the Russian leader said. said.

Putin said that they put three main criteria on the table in the diplomatic talks and these are; He listed it as "the cessation of NATO expansion, the no deployment of weapons on the Russian border, the reduction of military infrastructure to 1997 level".

Kremlin Recognizes Donbas's Independence:

After this statement, he signed a decree in front of the cameras that included the decision to recognize the separatist areas in Donbas.

This recognition decision received an immediate response from Ukraine. President of Ukraine, "The international border of Ukraine will remain the same regardless of Russia's recognition of the Donetsk and Luhansk administrations". Western countries also made statements one after another. The United States condemned Putin's move, and Biden signed an executive order banning Americans from new investment and trade in separatist areas.

The British prime minister, on the other hand, described Russia's act of recognition as a violation of Ukraine's independence and territorial integrity by ignoring international law. The Foreign Minister also said that his country will announce new sanctions against Russia. On the other hand, by sharing a message of solidarity with Ukraine, the EU pledged to "react in unity and determination".

The arrow was now out of the bow. Realizing this, Germany changed its stance while making rather cautious statements until then. When the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced on February 22 that an agreement was reached on the establishment of diplomatic relations between the RF, the DHC and the LHC, Germany announced that it suspended the "Nord Stream 2 Certification Process".

Meanwhile, Ukraine was making its last maneuvers to prevent the war. Zelenski said, “We see an attack on the sovereignty and territorial integrity of our state. We call on Russia to settle these problems through dialogue and to sit at the negotiating table. We are ready to meet.” made a statement. When the Federation Council of Russia approved the friendship and cooperation agreements with the Donetsk and Luhansk People's Republics, the Supreme Council of Ukraine adopted a declaration calling on Russia to withdraw the recognition of the Donetsk and Luhansk administrations.

Russians Have No Intention to Give Up:

However, it was understood that these efforts would not work, that Russia had put the invasion plan into effect and the Russian army was waiting for the "S" hour when the operation would begin. As a matter of fact, Denis Pushilin, the head of the separatist "Donetsk People's Republic", said, "We trust in our own strength. Of course, at some point we may have to turn to Russia for help. But we will be able to do this under the conditions specified in the agreement on cooperation and mutual assistance between Russia, the Luhansk People's Republic and the Donetsk People's Republic. The demarcation issue will be settled later.” made a statement.

Putin also said, “Russia has always supported the sovereignty of the former Soviet countries, the situation with Ukraine is an exception due to the influence exerted on this country from outside. Ukrainian territory is used by third countries to pose a threat to Russia.” made a statement. Russian Deputy Foreign Minister, on the other hand, said, “Moscow is not afraid of sanctions and nothing. Kyiv trampled the Minsk agreements with its actions. We are always ready for dialogue with Kiev.” said.

The next statements of the deputy minister seemed to imply that they could give a last-minute step to be taken by the other party to abandon their decision. According to this statement; Russia had no plans to send troops to Donbas yet. However, if there was a threat, then of course, military aid would be provided in accordance with the ratified agreement. The spokesperson; The announcement that the borders of the Donetsk and Luhansk administrations would be decided, seemed to imply that Russia did not even need to discuss the annexation of Crimea, but that if the separatist administrations in Donbas were recognized, then they could discuss where their borders would pass.

Ukraine Decides to Resist the Russian Army:

After that, new statements continued to come from the parties. Far from accepting the Russian imposition, Ukraine has made some moves that openly challenged Russia. For example, the Deputy of Ukraine, Oleksiy Goncharenko, presented to the Parliament a draft resolution on the termination of diplomatic relations with Russia.

In response, Putin said, “The Ukrainian administration has publicly announced that they will not implement the Minsk Agreement. Russia can no longer tolerate the genocide against the Donbass people. The Minsk Agreement was actually killed by Ukraine long before Russia recognized the DHC and LHC. Europe failed to force Kiev to implement the Minsk Agreement. So we have no choice but to recognize DHC and LHC. The best solution to this problem would be for the Kyiv administration to abandon its participation in NATO and adhere to neutrality. No one in Crimea voted for unification with Russia by force of arms. The West should respect this decision. Ukraine should recognize the decision of people living in Crimea and Sevastopol to join Russia in order to normalize relations. Ukraine's acquisition of tactical nuclear weapons is a strategic threat to Russia. Everything depends on the concrete situation that develops on the field,” he said.

US Attitude Towards Russian Aggression:

Meanwhile, the USA, despite being one of the main causes and main parties of the war, still did not make definite statements that would force Russia to refrain from its possible actions, but instead encouraged Russia by expressing that they would be content with economic sanctions.

For example, Biden said, “If Russia goes further in this occupation, we will go to sanctions. Russia will no longer be able to trade in either Europe or the USA. I approve the mobilization of more troops and equipment stationed in Europe to support our partners in the Baltic region, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania. Let me be clear, these are purely defensive steps. We have no intention of conflict with Russia. Whatever Russia's next step, we are ready to respond with unity and determination," he said.

Ukraine Prepares for the War of Attrition of the Russians:

Meanwhile, arms shipments to Ukraine by the West accelerated. Especially a large number of shoulder-fired anti-aircraft and anti-tank guns were sent. This showed that the West was planning to turn a possible Russia-Ukraine war into a war of attrition.

It is certain that since 2014, the US and British armies have prepared the Ukrainian army for the war, and probably made the Ukrainian army accept that the defense based on classical lines will not work against a strong army like the Russian army. For this reason, it was understood that the Ukrainian army, with the participation of volunteers from the civilian population, prepared a defense plan according to irregular warfare tactics and techniques in the countryside, and to defend the cities as a resistance point in the built-up areas.

The rapid increase in arms aid to Ukraine made Russia quite uncomfortable. The Russian Foreign Minister said, “We continue to advocate the peaceful resolution of all problems. In this context, it is impossible not to worry about the actions aimed at pumping weapons into Kiev and the ongoing clashes of the Kyiv regime on the Donetsk and Lugansk border.” made a statement. Kremlin Spokesperson Peskov said, "The decision to send Russian forces to the DHC and LHC will be taken in line with the wishes of the leaders of these republics, in relation to how the situation will develop."

Ukraine Calls for Mobilization:

Thereupon, Zelenski called for the mobilization of the reserve military personnel in the country. NATO, on the other hand, started to take measures against the risk of conflicts spreading to NATO countries. NATO Secretary General, “We saw more Russian soldiers entering parts of Donetsk and Luhansk in the Donbass. We are at the most dangerous moment for Europe's security. In recent weeks, the Allies have deployed thousands of troops to the eastern part of the Alliance. We have over 100 jets on high alert. There are more than 120 Allied ships from the north to the Mediterranean. We will continue to do whatever it takes to protect the Alliance from aggressors.” said.

The United Nations' Voice is Finally Heard:

On February 23, this time, the UN desperately made one last attempt. The UN Secretary-General said, “I call for an immediate ceasefire at this critical time. We need immediate de-escalation. Now is the time to return to dialogue and negotiations. The United Nations and the entire international system are currently being subjected to a test, and we must pass this test,” he said.

But it was clear that this would not work. For this reason, the parties began to openly enter a state of war. The Security and Defense Council of Ukraine announced that it has decided to declare a 30-day state of emergency throughout the country, excluding Donetsk and Luhansk regions. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs also called on its citizens in Russia to leave the country.

Meanwhile, the President of the DHC demanded that the Ukrainian army leave the Donbass territory. After that, the Donetsk and Luhansk administrations asked Russia for help to repel the aggression from Ukraine. Thereupon, the Russian army began to approach the border to attack the Ukrainian lands.

The Russian army crossed the border on the night of 23-24 February and entered the territory of Ukraine. In coordination with this ground attack, the Russian air force and artillery/missile units attacked the military and economic infrastructure of Ukraine.

(To be continued)