How Important are the Nord Stream Leaks?

Threats to energy security are likely to continue to be one of the main issues on the international political agenda for a long time to come. However, it is noticeable that a significant part of the world is not fully aware of the dimensions of the incident and the consequences that are likely to become more noticeable in the following periods. Therefore, it is of utmost importance that the dimensions and possible effects of similar incidents, which are likely to occur at any time within the scope of energy transportation routes, especially Nord Stream, are addressed in depth.

The missions undertaken by all energy facilities that mediate the transmission of energy resources from one point to another, especially the Nord Stream natural gas pipelines, have a meaning beyond being mere physical structures. In this context, it is possible to state that these structures have missions beyond the provision of vital assets such as energy resources to consumers. For example, in the history of energy, which is based on humanity's utilization of its own muscle power, all energy assets without exception, especially transmission lines, are the most important factors in the revolutionary transformation of the current energy order. Therefore, it is not wrong to characterize these formations as vital elements for the sustainability of the functionality of the global energy order.

As they are part of the vital importance of strategic energy resources, physical formations such as transmission lines are considered as critical infrastructures. However, in order to make the importance of critical infrastructures more understandable, it is useful to first draw attention to the key roles of strategic energy resources in the sustainability of life on earth. Therefore, examining the concept of strategic energy resources will be an important guide in understanding the recent events more clearly. In fact, in line with the expanding scope of the concept of strategic resources, a number of energy assets have begun to be included under this heading. However, contrary to expectations, not all energy resources are included in this scope. The main reason for not including all energy assets within the scope of strategic resources is related to the fulfillment of certain conditions and criteria. Therefore, it is possible to state that certain criteria are decisive within the concept of strategic resources.

These criteria, which are decisive in the context of strategic resources, are listed in three items: impact on socio-economic development, cumulative nature and politicization. Therefore, in order for a phenomenon to be included among strategic resources, it must have qualities such as socio-economic development, cumulative and politicizable. In short, we can characterize strategic resources as assets that are fought for and cause conflicts between societies. In this direction, it is seen that some energy resources have become the most vital components of the concept of strategic resources as a result of the qualities they carry in the time period following the historical past that extends to pastures and grasslands in the early periods. For example, it is possible to consider the transformation of coal with the industrial revolution, oil with its discovery, nuclear energy with the Cold War period, and natural gas with the 1973 global energy crisis into strategic resources in this context.

It is indisputable that almost all fossil-based energy sources have maintained their qualities until today. In order to understand the strategic importance of these energy resources more clearly, it is useful to refer to the remarkable statements of some people who have left their mark on history. For example, the Great Leader Gazi Mustafa Kemal Atatürk said, "The oil issue is not only a matter of national economy. It is also a matter of national defense" can be considered in this context. However, it is indisputable that coal and natural gas are among the vital strategic resources like oil.

It is possible to talk about a number of possible negativities that may arise under the concept of energy security related to the qualities of strategic energy resources. Considering that energy security has become one of the main components of the national security of states, especially since the last few decades, it is more clearly understood that the negativities that may arise in this context can reach serious dimensions that can prevent the sustainability of vital functions. In this context, it is possible to associate the most critical energy security threats with access to strategic energy resources, uninterrupted supply and sustainability of the flow. Because the asymmetrical distribution of energy resources across the world geography causes the main problems to be experienced within the framework of access. In addition, a number of factors make it even more difficult to procure strategic energy resources, which are already facing problems in terms of accessibility. In this context, it is possible to consider the transformation of energy resources into diplomatic weapons such as the use of energy resources as a means of sanctions in international politics.

The use of strategic energy resources as a kind of weapon by turning them into a tool of influence in diplomatic activities means the emergence of serious dangers for the national security of economies that are highly dependent on energy imports. In the light of recent developments, the energy crisis faced by the EU is just one of the examples of this. Therefore, we can say that the energy crisis has started to reach such serious dimensions that it threatens the EU's national security. Considering that even the assumptions about the interruption of energy flows have already caused energy prices in the member states to skyrocket, it is indisputable that the consequences of this situation would be more devastating. As of September 2022, these assumptions became reality with the statements of the Russian side and the activities of the Nord Stream 1 natural gas pipeline were first temporarily and then permanently suspended. With this, the EU-wide rhetoric of "Winter is the Great Future" has become an inevitable reality.

While the suspension of the Nord Stream 1 natural gas pipeline forced Europe to face the reality of a serious crisis, national security threats such as the possible transformation of protests into social unrest due to the suspension of the activities of some countries' industrial giants, bankruptcy declarations and the emergence of economic difficulties have begun to come to light. Social movements in countries such as the Czech Republic, Germany and Belgium can be considered in this context. Therefore, it is indisputable that energy is vital for the sustainability of social welfare as well as economies.

With the interruption of energy flow, the recent leaks in Nord Stream 1 and 2 have made the situation a bit more complicated. In this context, it is possible to state that the growing possibility of sabotage regarding the leaks has further deepened the energy crisis. However, in relation to the effects of the incidents, it is seen that the glass is half full. For instance, the fact that the lines are not currently in operation can be described as a great luck and the discourses on the fact that the process was overcome with relatively less damage can be considered in this context. However, such an approach is not entirely correct. Because, from a broader perspective, it is clear that the situation is different than it appears. First of all, the leak in question, whether active or not, is a serious danger. In addition, the possibility of sabotage increases the dimensions of the already existing danger. It is possible to address the emerging dangers under two headings. The first of these is undoubtedly the access problems associated with the interruption of energy flow, while the other is the adverse environmental impacts. As a matter of fact, each of the lines in question are transmission lines with a carrying capacity of 55 billion cubic meters each. An interruption of this - given that both lines are operational - would mean that roughly 25 percent of Europe's natural gas consumption would not flow. However, the environmental impacts resulting from similar incidents such as this one seem to be ignored. This is because Nord Stream leaks have created pollution equal to the methane emissions of Paris for one year. The fact that the United Nations, European and other observer authorities have described the leak as "alarming" makes the extent of what happened more understandable. In addition, Danish Defense Minister Morten Bodskov's statement on Twitter, which he described as "a joint condemnation from the alliance and a very strong signal", also supported the statement that the leaks detected in the Baltic Sea in the natural gas pipelines between Russia and Germany, which caused "deep concern", put maritime transport and shipping at risk and caused "serious environmental damage".

In conclusion, it is extremely wrong to see the leaks in the Nord Stream natural gas pipelines from the glass half full perspective. This is because the incident in question amounts to a direct targeting of energy security. However, the occurrence of incidents against critical infrastructures such as energy transmission lines is not limited to Nord Stream 1 and 2. Therefore, it should not be forgotten that the possibility of similar incidents in many geographies around the world continues to be one of the main threats to energy security. In this context, the outbreak of acts like Nord Stream 1 and 2, which damage the EU's most important supply lines, in geographies inhabited by the world's most modern societies, in a way strengthens the possibility that similar incidents will inevitably occur in "less developed" and politically turbulent regions. In short, for other parts of the world, the Nord Stream incident would not be a negative example for similar situations to occur. Therefore, it is of utmost importance to consider the extent and impact of the leaks in the Nord Stream pipelines by taking all these into account.