How the Russia-Ukraine Crisis Turned into War

The tension that started between the two countries continued until 2022 with mutual explanations.

If you haven't read the tension period before, please click on the link (then select English version):

https://strasam.org/analiz-ve-raporlar/analiz/rusya-ukrayna-savasi-nasil-gidiyor-1-704

Increasing Russian Concentration on Ukraine Border:

On January 15, 2022, US and British intelligence sources announced that the Russia-Ukraine war could begin in a day or two. Published footage showed Russian armored vehicles and other military equipment being loaded onto trains. Meanwhile, the Ukrainian government announced that they were exposed to cyber attacks and blamed Moscow for this.

War Can Begin Any Time:

After it was understood that the war could start at any moment, the violence of the statements made by the USA, NATO and EU countries increased. In these statements made within the scope of the concept of deterrence, it was emphasized that if Russia attempted an invasion operation, it would pay a heavy price. However, there were signs of concern in these statements. This situation, which did not comply with the spirit of deterrence concept practices and reduced deterrence, was due to the concern that a possible Ukraine-Russia war might cause a general or regional war.

Nuclear Weapons Agitation:

Knowing that Russia is a nuclear power and that a war with NATO has the potential to turn into a nuclear war, the West gave signs that it would not show a great reaction if it limited a possible attack to Donbas and its surroundings instead of discouraging Russia from all its planned actions.

For example, US President Biden announced that if Russia launched a major invasion operation, it would pay a heavy price. So he implied that he could tolerate a small military action. This statement was naturally met with a reaction from Ukraine. But similar statements kept coming. On January 31, the NATO Secretary General announced that since Ukraine is not a NATO Member, the country cannot be fully supported. On February 2, NATO Deputy Secretary General said that Ukraine will not be able to join the alliance in the near future.

Now that the war was approaching with full reins, the Ukrainian administration was trying to reduce the tension, worried that it would be alone in the face of a possible Russian attack. In this context, on February 4, the Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces said that there is no military threat from Russia to Ukraine.

Full Russian Domination in Belarus:

But it was too late for such explanations. Because Russia was disturbed not only by the developments in Ukraine but also in Belarus recently, and came to the conclusion that the USA and the EU wanted to throw Russia out of Europe completely, losing its capacity to become a world power and turning it into an Asian country that is only a regional power. had arrived.

In Belarus, elections were held in August 2020 and the pro-Western candidate Svyatlana Tsihanouskaya claimed to have won the elections. However, when the election results were announced, it was declared that Aleksandr Lukashenko, who has been ruling the country alone since 1994 and has followed a policy close to Russia, won the elections with 80 percent of the votes. Thereupon, the opposition took to the streets, claiming that the elections were rigged.

Lukashenko brutally suppressed these protests and had many arrested. The opposition candidate had to flee the country. Thereupon, the EU started sanctions against the Belarusian rulers. Lukashenko, who was in a difficult situation, approached Russia and increased the security measures in the country.

Immigrant Crisis Between EU Countries and Belarus:

After the EU increased its sanctions, Lukashenko made an unexpected counter move. The EU has announced that it will no longer protect its borders against refugees from various parts of the world. After this statement was published in the media, thousands of Middle Eastern, African and Afghan people flocked to Belarus and reached the borders of the EU.

Upon this hybrid move, EU countries were confused about what to do. They built fences on the borders and sent troops, but they could not stop the influx of refugees. Violence by security forces against refugees entering Poland and the Baltic countries has mobilized human rights associations in Europe. Belarusian and Russian rulers did not miss this opportunity. They declared that they did not comply with the European values ​​imposed by the EU countries on the whole world when it did not suit them.

EU Disorganization Encourages Russians:

This situation taught Russia two things. The first was that EU countries could not act together in times of crisis, and the second was that they had difficulty in taking drastic measures due to structural problems. The thought that EU countries have no other instrument of coercion and deterrence other than economic sanctions, due to the large masses in Europe who believe in human values, encouraged Russia to take action.

These events also showed that it was imperative for Russia to act. Because NATO and the EU have shown that they are determined to expand their borders to the borders of Russia. If Russia did not act in Ukraine, it would become inevitable for Belarus to move to the Western side in the future. The joining of Belarus and Ukraine to the West meant the end of Russia's dreams of becoming a great power.

The Dnieper River, which flows from these two countries in the north-south direction and flows into the Black Sea, has served as both a physical and psychological barrier between Western and Eastern powers throughout history. The side that crossed this river was gaining the upper hand over the other side and weakening it.

Historical Facts for Russians:

This was most evident during the First World War. After heavy defeats on the European fronts, Russia withdrew to the western part of today's Ukraine and Belarus.

Meanwhile, Russia faced internal turmoil due to the Bolshevik Revolution and was on the verge of disintegration. Despite this, the Bolsheviks, who continued the war against the Central Powers, suffered a heavy military defeat and signed the Treaty of Brest-Litovsk in 1918. With this agreement, it had to withdraw almost to the eastern borders of today's Ukraine and Belarus.

After the Cold War, the EU and NATO had advanced rapidly to the east and were trying to push Russia to the limits of an agreement they had signed by force, even under the most difficult conditions. If this were to happen, Russia could no longer be a European state or find a place for itself in European politics. Russia would either act or settle for its more modest role in the worldwide power struggle game.

Brest-Litovsk Border

The present-day Russian border

The Love of Descent to Warm Seas:

The problem was not only the crossing of the Dnieper River. From the very first day of its establishment, Russia tried to descend to warm seas in order to become a great state. The territory of Russia extends to the Atlantic and Pacific coasts. However, these oceans are of secondary importance in that they are not suitable for sea transportation in all seasons and that they are too far from regions that are vital for Russia's interests.

The Mediterranean basin is the most important region of the world in terms of geopolitical and geostrategic aspects, as it has been throughout history. It is of vital importance for Russia to reach the Mediterranean basin, which is in contact with three continents and regions where hydrocarbon deposits are abundant, and which is on the lines where oil is delivered to world markets. For this reason, Russia actively participated in the Syrian civil war in order to obtain naval bases in Syria, and became a party to the conflicts in Libya with the hope of obtaining another base.

The shortest route to the Mediterranean basin for Russia passes through the Black Sea. For this reason, the Black Sea is the most important sea for Russia, both for its navy and its merchant ships. But after the Cold War, NATO expanded rapidly in the Black Sea coasts as well as in Eastern Europe and became active in almost the entire Black Sea. Russia, on the other hand, is confined to the northern part of the Eastern Black Sea.

The Importance of the Black Sea for Russians:

To get out of this jam, Russia has no alternative but to invade Crimea. If Crimea falls into the hands of Russia, Russia will once again become the dominant power in the Black Sea, not only in terms of military but also economic interests. Crimea is also important for the security of the Azov Sea, which is the only safe place for the Russian navy. For the first time in history, Russia landed in the warm sea on the Azov coast and thus became a great power.

For this reason, Russia wants to dominate all the coasts of the Azov Sea and to turn this sea into an inland sea. This is the reason why he provoked the Russian minority in the Donbas region to declare independence and persistently tried to seize the seaside city of Mariupol, which provided the connection between Crimea and Donbas in the Ukrainian war.

Russian Policy Watching Belarus:

For this reason, when the Belarusian crisis emerged, Russia immediately supported Lukashenko. Since Lukashenko was also in a difficult situation, when he responded, the two countries announced that they decided to hold a joint military exercise between 10-20 February 2022. In this context, Russia sent various weapons and military units to Belarus. Western states have begun to voice their claims that Russia is planning to invade Ukraine, considering the size of the build-up on both Belarus and the Ukrainian border.

On 11 February, the EU requested that diplomatic personnel, except those with primary priority, leave Ukraine. Meanwhile, satellite images showed more Russian forces gathering on three sides of Ukraine. When the USA saw this situation, it started to take some steps to prevent a possible war from turning into a NATO-Russia war. In this context, Biden said that if Russia invaded, the United States would not send troops to rescue the Americans in Ukraine.

Ukraine Fears the Possibility of War:

These statements made the Ukrainian administration very uneasy. On the one hand, the distrust of the Western states, which were warmongering and on the other hand, said that they would not join the war on the side of Ukraine, increased, and the Ukrainian administration made some new statements to reduce the tension. President Zelenski said on February 12, “A lot is said about a possible war, and people are even giving dates. The best friend of our enemies is panic in our country.” He made a statement and urged his people to remain calm.

Thinking that war is now inevitable, Ukraine started to prepare for a possible Russian invasion. In this context, on February 14, the Ukrainian Ambassador to Berlin asked Germany for 12 thousand anti-tank missile aid. A day after that, some statements were made from Moscow to lower the tension. Russia announced the withdrawal of some of its military units near the Ukrainian border.

Putin said that Russia does not want war and will continue negotiations to eliminate the possibility of Ukraine joining NATO one day. He said that the discussion of other confidence-building measures put on the table by the West many years ago was accepted by the West.

Russians' Political and Military Suspension Maneuvers:

On February 16, Russia announced that some units in the areas close to the Ukrainian border had completed their exercises and returned to their bases, but that if the United States and NATO support Ukraine militarily, Russia would take additional measures to ensure its own security. Russia also stated that any attempt by Ukraine to start a new war in the Donbas region would destroy the country.

The statement by Russia that the forces that completed the exercise began to return to their barracks were not found convincing by the Western countries. Because, in satellite images, it was seen that 150-200 thousand soldiers of Russia still kept their positions on a wide front from Belarus to Crimea.

Instead of responding to these allegations, Russia made some statements confirming its suspicion that it was preparing for an attack. For example, on February 18, the Kremlin statement on accusations of mutual ceasefire violations in eastern Ukraine, “The situation in Donbas is very dangerous.” expression was used.

Meanwhile, the Kremlin, in its criticism of the nuclear exercise that Russia announced to do, said, "This is part of the routine process." gave the answer. On the same day, at the press conference after the meeting with the President of Belarus, Putin said, “The Ukrainian administration is constantly fueling tensions.” made a statement.

The British Reveal the Russian Invasion Plan:

These statements strengthened the thoughts that Russia was preparing an attack. The US president said that the Russian army is preparing to attack Ukraine and they expect Kiev to be the target. On February 19, the British Ministry of Defense published Russia's plan for a possible two-stage invasion of Ukraine. In the statement, it was stated that Russia could carry out an invasion without warning.

(To be continued)