How the Russia-Ukraine War Is Going (1)

Background:

One of the republics that formed the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR), which was established after the October Revolution in Russia in 1917, was the Ukrainian SSR. The borders of this state included today's territory, except for the Crimea. Nikita Khrushchev, who is of Ukrainian origin, deported Crimea, which hosted the USSR Black Sea fleet, from the Russian SFSR in 1954 as a gesture to the Ukrainians, who were deported to Siberia by Stalin, most of whom died during this exile, probably on the grounds of collaborating with the Germans after the Second World War. transferred to the Ukrainian SSR. But in 1991, with a referendum just before the collapse of the Soviet Union, Crimea was made an autonomous region.

Ukraine's Independence:

In the same year, Ukraine gained its independence. Although Ukraine has been an independent state since 1991, like other Soviet Republics that gained independence, it was perceived by Russia as part of its sphere of influence. Its northern neighbor, Belarus, did not disappoint this perception and established a close relationship with Russia, but Ukraine preferred to have close relations with the West. Russia has always seen this situation as a threat to itself, and when the Kyiv administration got closer to the European Union (EU) and tried to join NATO, the two countries fell apart.

The Process Leading to the Russia-Ukraine War:

This situation is also the main reason for the Ukraine-Russia war that is taking place today. The process leading to the Russia-Ukraine war accelerated when Victor Yanukovych was elected president in 2010, defeating Prime Minister Yulia Timeshenko. Because the process of Yanukovych's election as president also led to the exacerbation of conflicts between the pro-Russian population and the pro-Western population in the country, and Russia, who took advantage of this situation, occupied part of the Ukrainian lands.

Effects of Orange Revolution and Yanukovych Decisions:

Yanukovych, who followed a pro-Russian policy when he was elected President, served as the governor of Donetsk Oblast, where the Russian-speaking population is dense, between 1997-2002. He became the prime minister during the presidency of Leonid Kuchma. He became a candidate in the presidential elections in 2004 and advanced to the second round. He was declared the winner of the election in this round as well, but protests broke out in different parts of the country due to the allegations of election fraud and intimidation of the voters.

In response to these protests, known as the Orange Revolution and allegedly financed and directed by the West, the Supreme Court of Ukraine decided to renew the runoff elections. Yanukovych lost repeated elections. Despite this, he served as prime minister again in 2006-2007 during the President-elect Yushchenko era.

Yanukovych was a candidate again in the 2010 presidential elections. His opponent in this election was Yulia Timeshenko, who became prime minister after him. Yanukovych won this election and as soon as he came to power, he moved away from pro-Western policies and started to approach Russia. On 21 November 2013, it suspended the preparations for the signing of the Association Agreement between Ukraine and the European Union.

The Seeds of the Russo-Ukrainian War Are Now Sown:

This decision was the beginning of the events that fueled today's war. Because it was met with a great reaction by the pro-Western supporters and thousands of people in different cities of the country, especially in Kyiv and Lviv, took to the streets to protest Yanukovych's decision. On top of that, the protests turned into an uprising as of December 1, 2013, when the groups supporting Yanukovych and the Russian-speaking minority groups started to demonstrate against it.

Encouraged by the support of its own supporters, the administration carried out a massive raid on the protesters in Kiev using its police forces on 11 December 2013, but the resistance of the demonstrators could not be broken. On the contrary, the protests became more violent, and thousands of pro-Western people protested Yanukovych's decision during the 2014 New Year's Eve celebrations. When the pro-Russian supporters took to the streets, clashes broke out between the demonstrators.

In January, when the Ukrainian government announced that new laws would be passed to silence opposition on the streets, the demonstrators declared these laws "dictatorship laws". In February, clashes between protests and opposing demonstrators escalated. The opposition called for a ceasefire after the death toll increased. Yanukovych at first rejected this call, but declared a ceasefire on February 20 when the events got out of hand.

Crimea is being separated from Ukraine:

Meanwhile, due to the tension that started in Crimea, he asked Russia to send troops to the region, and Russian troops entered Crimea on 22 and 23 February. Thereupon, Yanukovych was dismissed from the presidency by the parliament on February 23. He fled to Russia when an arrest warrant was issued for him. After Yanukovych's escape and the fall of the government, this time pro-Russian Ukrainians and Russian ethnic groups revolted.

The people were divided into two poles, the Russian and the pro-Western. Intense protests began in cities such as Odessa, Kharkiv, Donetsk and Lugansk. Protest demonstrations in the Donbass region turned into conflict in February. Pro-Russian separatists seized official buildings. Meanwhile, the Crimean Parliament decided to hold a referendum on the annexation of Crimea to Russia. After the referendum on March 16, 2014, in which Tatars and Ukrainians did not participate, Crimea was annexed by Russia.

Trying to Break Out in Donetsk and Lugansk:

On May 11, 2014, the Donetsk People's Republic and the Lugansk People's Republic were proclaimed with the popular vote in Donbas. On June 26, the Lugansk and Donetsk Republics united to form the People's Union Republic. Thereupon, the Ukrainian army intervened and a front line emerged between the separatists and the army.

Meanwhile, presidential elections were held in Ukraine. The change of government significantly reduced Russian influence in Ukraine. The new government initially kept the Ukrainian Army in the background. However, from the end of May, the Ukrainian Army took the offensive and fierce fighting began. From the beginning of July, the Ukrainian Army was able to retake Kramatorsk and Sloviansk from the separatist hands.

At the beginning of August, fighting raged on the main road connecting Lugansk and Donetsk. But as Russia's support grew, the separatists began to make some gains. The conflicts between the parties came to a standstill after a while, with the excavation of mutual defense positions. Thereupon, on September 5, 2014, a ceasefire agreement was signed between Ukraine and the People's Union Republic (aka Novorossiya) in Minsk, the capital of Belarus.

Interim Agreement Reached:

According to the agreements, Ukraine would increase the powers of local governments and give Donbas a special status. The separatists, on the other hand, would return control of the Ukraine-Russia border to the state. But in late September, the ceasefire broke down. Clashes intensified around Donetsk Airport and between Novoazovsk and Mariupol. Novoazovsk fell back into the hands of the separatists. The Ukrainian Army also had to withdraw from Donetsk Airport in January 2015. Separatists attacked Mariupol. Their aim was to go as far as the Donetsk provincial borders.

On February 12, 2015, the parties agreed on a ceasefire with the Minsk II protocol. The Minsk II Protocol included constitutional reform in Ukraine, the transfer of heavy weapons from the front to the rear of the front, and the release of prisoners of war. Despite the ceasefire agreement, clashes continued intermittently in some villages of Luhansk, near Donetsk Airport and around Shyrokyne.

Zelenski won the 2019 elections in Ukraine. Zelenski was sworn in as president on May 20, 2019. Meanwhile, clashes were still taking place in the Donbas region. These clashes continued until the end of 2019. On December 9, 2019, the "Normandy Quartet Leaders' Summit" was held in Paris with the participation of the heads of state of Ukraine, Russia, Germany and France. At this summit, a full ceasefire and commitment to the Minsk Agreement were emphasized. After that, the conflicts lessened, but did not cease.

Comprehensive Armistice:

Upon this; The Tripartite Contact Group consisting of Russia, Ukraine and the OSCE agreed to a comprehensive ceasefire from 27 July 2020. This ceasefire was largely complied with, but no definitive agreement was reached. Because Ukraine, which lost more than 7% of its territory, did not want to sign a document that would legalize this situation. Ukraine also rejected Russia's request for a special status to Donbas, arguing that this would drag the country into division.

Thinking that it could not resist the pressures made by Russia alone, Ukraine understood better that it needed to find support and support. The only international defense organization that could provide this was NATO. For this reason, Ukraine increased its efforts to join NATO. In this context, Zelenski made public statements and declared that his country should be given a NATO Membership Action Plan and that becoming a member of NATO is the only solution to end the war in Donbas.

Flirting with NATO Disturbs Russia:

This call received a response and Ukraine received the status of “NATO Extended Opportunities Partner” in 2020. Thereupon, the Ukrainian administration took action to start membership negotiations as soon as possible. This situation triggered Russia as well. Because Russia saw Ukraine's entry into NATO as a threat to itself. For this reason, the Russian army began to build up on the Ukrainian border in 2021. This situation intensified the conflicts in Donbas once again.

The killing of four Ukrainian soldiers by pro-Russian separatists on March 26 brought the crisis in the region to a climax. As the Ukrainian army increased its measures, Russia increased its troop build-up on the border and in the Crimea. Following these developments closely, the Chief of the General Staff of Ukraine, in his speech at the Ukrainian parliament on March 30, said that the Russian army has deployed up to 28 battalions in the north and east of the Ukrainian border and in the Crimea under the pretext of exercises.

Russians Start Massing Troops on Ukraine Border:

Russia replied that "the Russian army is acting at its own discretion and within its own territory, this should not bother anyone." After that, both Moscow and Kyiv increased the deployment of troops around the Donbas region. The EU and the USA reacted to Russia's troop shipment. It was announced that Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity were supported. NATO Secretary General also said that the Alliance supports Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity.

(To be continued)