Increasing Risks in a Drier World and Turkey

When we talk about drought, the first concepts that come to mind are meteorological, hydrological and agricultural drought. Meteorological drought is generally defined as a decrease in precipitation, hydrogeological drought as the prolonged duration of this decrease and a reduction in the amount of water flowing in rivers, accumulating in lakes and reservoirs, while agricultural drought is characterised by a decrease in soil moisture and increased difficulty for plants to access water. According to the World Meteorological Organisation, drought is an abnormally dry atmospheric condition characterised by the absence of rainfall below a certain threshold over a large area for a period of one month or more. In other words, it is a natural disaster that can affect large areas for months or years, significantly reducing economic performance, particularly food production.

Experts say that the long-term shift toward drier conditions resulting from climate change is reshaping the world.According to UN reports, this gradual drying trend, known as desertification, now affects 2.3 billion people and 40% of the world's land, leading to serious consequences for agriculture, water, and ecosystems. Since 1980, 37% of global land has experienced significant soil moisture loss. Annually, an average of 24 billion tonnes of agricultural land is lost due to soil erosion, and 110 countries are at risk of desertification due to erosion. Climate change, desertification, erosion, drought, and land degradation are among the most pressing global issues. The United Nations (UN) has designated 17 June as the World Day to Combat Desertification and Drought since 1994.

According to a comprehensive study published this month by the OECD, the area of land affected by drought has doubled between 1900 and 2020. In Europe, drought-affected areas have expanded from southern regions to the eastern and central parts of the continent. In 2023, approximately half of the global land area experienced extreme drought for at least one month.

The frequency and intensity of droughts have increased across all continents since the beginning of the 21st century. Approximately 40% of global land areas experienced increases in both the average number of dry periods and average intensity between 1950-2000 and 2000-2020. Hotspots where drought frequency and intensity have increased worldwide include the western United States, South America, Southern and Eastern Europe, Southern Australia, Northern and Southern Africa, and Russia. Between 2000 and 2020, several of these regions experienced severe droughts compared to the period between 1950 and 2000.

The OECD Report states that costs due to drought are expected to be at least 35% higher in the next 10 years than they are today.

Agriculture is the sector most affected by drought on a global scale. Approximately 60% of global food production is based on dry farming (rain-fed agriculture) and accounts for approximately two-thirds of total food production. Therefore, increasing rainfall regime changes and drought trends due to climate change are also increasing the threat to global food security.

The consequences of increasing drought and desertification pose a threat not only to the security of countries affected by drought but also to regional security and stability. Beyond economic consequences, severe droughts pose a threat to food security and water sustainability, which are fundamental to social welfare and economic stability.

In conclusion, droughts have emerged as a growing threat to societies, ecosystems and economies in much of the world.

Studies show that economic losses and damage caused by droughts are increasing by 3-7.5 per cent annually worldwide.

Increasing drought is causing an increase in social and economic problems, especially in less developed countries. This means that in the future, we may experience more intense internal conflicts, climate migration and poverty migration than we are experiencing today.

The Situation in Turkey

Turkey is a regional drought country located in a semi-arid climate zone. In recent years, we have begun to experience regional droughts more frequently and with greater intensity. Our country is a regional drought country located in a semi-arid/semi-humid mid-latitude zone. Our country has an irregular rainfall regime. Variations in rainfall do not follow a meaningful pattern. This indicates that our country is periodically at risk of drought, albeit with varying intensity. In summary, Turkey is a regional drought-prone country with irregular local rainfall patterns and is affected by climate change. As a result, it experiences regional droughts from meteorological, hydrological, and agricultural perspectives. Experts in the field predict that regional dry periods will occur more frequently and intensely in conjunction with global climate change and will be more dangerous than they are today.

Furthermore, the 2024 Climate Assessment Report of the General Directorate of Meteorology shows that the number of meteorological disasters in Turkey has increased rapidly over the years. Since 2010, there has been a rapidly increasing trend in annual average temperature differences. Drought primarily affects water resources. Turkey's water resources are unevenly distributed across regions and populations. We are not a water-rich country. According to internationally recognised criteria, as our population grows, we are moving closer to becoming one of the water-scarce countries. Official statements indicate that some river basins will experience water budget deficits by 2040.

Changes in rainfall amount and distribution due to climate change, decreases in dam filling rates, declines in groundwater levels, and deterioration in water quality, as well as rainfall-dependent dry farming, are causing serious negative effects.

According to reports by the Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO), approximately half of Turkey's agricultural land is at moderate risk of drought and desertification. Due to the fact that most of the agricultural land in our country is rain-fed (dry farming), sensitivity to drought is increasing.

The Mediterranean Basin, which includes Turkey, is among the regions most affected by drought in the world. The risk level of countries being affected by drought is determined by factors such as geographical location, rainfall regime, climate structure, and resistance to climate change. Turkey's risk level of drought is high, and this situation has the potential to create serious effects, especially in terms of agriculture, drinking water supply and ecosystem balance.

Our More Risky Regions and Our Agricultural Sector

According to the studies conducted by the General Directorate of Water Management, a water budget deficit is expected to occur in some of our river basins in 2040-2050.

These basins are the Meriç Ergene, Susurluk, Northern Aegean, Gediz, Küçük Menderes, Büyük Menderes, Kızılırmak, Konya Closed Basin, Burdur Akarçay, Ceyhan, Fırat Dicle, and Asi Basins.

Additionally, as the Water Policies Association, we conducted a study using rainfall and meteorological drought data published by the General Directorate of State Meteorological Affairs and found that regional droughts have become more frequent and severe in some regions over the past five years. Accordingly, regional droughts are occurring more frequently and intensely in Thrace, the southern part of the Marmara Region, the Aegean Region, the western, central, and eastern Mediterranean regions, central Anatolia, and the western part of southeastern Anatolia.

Droughts have deep and far-reaching effects on the environment, economy, and society. They exert significant pressure on vegetation and wildlife, disrupt ecosystem balance, and threaten biodiversity. Economically, droughts severely weaken the performance of water-intensive sectors such as agriculture and energy production. These effects are increasingly evident in our country as well.

In regions heavily dependent on agriculture, water shortages caused by drought and the resulting decline in production quantity and quality are severely affecting the already structurally challenged agricultural sector and farmers. This situation is exacerbating concerns about food inflation and food security.

The effects of drought on agriculture have been felt strongly in our country in 2007, 2008, 2014 and 2021. During these years, serious problems arose in both yield and quality. In those years, agricultural production was significantly affected by drought, and many producers as well as the national economy suffered considerable damage. In the current year, the effects of drought are particularly evident in dry crops.

In our country, three-quarters of the wheat cultivation area, which is of strategic importance and accounts for 28.5% of the 23.9 million hectares of agricultural land, is dry farming land. This clearly shows how important the impact of drought or changes in rainfall patterns is on our agricultural production.

Increasing risks to our groundwater

Our groundwater is our most strategic water resource, and we must therefore protect it and ensure that it is used in the most efficient way possible. Approximately 95% of our groundwater is allocated. Studies conducted to determine changes in groundwater levels and quality in Turkey show that groundwater levels are rapidly declining and becoming polluted in many regions. This decline is more rapid and severe in regions with low rainfall, high agricultural production, and dense populations due to excessive and uncontrolled extraction. The Konya region is a prime example of this.

In our country, 25% of the water used for irrigation and 54% of the water used for drinking, domestic, and industrial purposes is extracted from groundwater. On average, 45% of the drinking and domestic water in our major cities is extracted from groundwater.

In six of our country's water basins (Meriç-Ergene, Akarçay, Büyük Menderes, Konya Kapalı, Eastern Mediterranean, and Asi Basins), groundwater allocation quantities have exceeded or are about to exceed safe reserves and recharge quantities. This situation is causing groundwater levels to drop rapidly and quality to deteriorate in these regions.

Industrial facilities outside industrial zones typically draw their water from groundwater. The use of meters is mandatory to control extraction from these wells. In this sense, we can say that extraction is partially under control. Approximately 9% (1.5 billion m³/year) of the total groundwater allocations made by the General Directorate of State Hydraulic Works (DSİ) are allocated to the industrial sector. Since groundwater is an invisible resource, the decline in water levels during dry periods is not a concern. As a result, extraction continues, levels drop, and water quality deteriorates. When drought becomes widespread and severe, water restrictions are imposed in cities that obtain drinking and domestic water from groundwater and springs. Due to declining groundwater levels, there are decreases and drying up of water in nearby lakes, wetlands, and rivers. Consequently, the ecosystem balance is disrupted.

What should be done about drought?

There are two main approaches to addressing this issue. The first is planning efforts focused on what needs to be done and risk management, which we have largely completed at the basin level. The second is the effective implementation of these plans at the basin level through a participatory management approach.

Drought is a slow-developing, insidious disaster whose effects emerge over the long term. When it strikes, it causes significant, permanent, and long-lasting damage to many sectors. Therefore, the most effective measures are to identify the risks and implement your plans step by step. However, for these measures to be successful, certain preparatory steps must be taken in advance, such as efficient water use, drought-resistant plant species, and increased social awareness.

The success of crisis management measures taken in response to meteorological, hydrological, and agricultural droughts is limited. For this reason, it is necessary to manage the risk before it reaches crisis level through regular planned measures. In order to carry out risk management effectively, we must undergo a radical change in thinking, from our understanding of water management to our water usage habits. We must develop our institutional capacity in line with the new conditions and create a new understanding of water management and a new water usage culture. Furthermore, no single measure may be sufficient to address all risks. For example, measures to be taken for agricultural drought risk management include the development of drought action plans at the river basin level, diversification of agricultural production patterns, utilisation of damage-reducing technological developments such as early warning systems, use of pressurised irrigation systems, development of drought-resistant crop varieties, and strengthening of stakeholder institutional structures.

In 2017, the National Drought Management Strategy Document and Action Plan was published in Turkey. This strategy document and action plan aim to ensure cooperation and coordination among relevant institutions on drought management, and to reduce the negative effects of drought through measures to be taken before, during, and after drought. Additionally, objectives and actions have been established to strengthen institutional capacity by developing technical and economic tools for drought management and to increase public awareness of drought.

However, strong and effective river basin management institutional infrastructure and participatory policies are still needed to implement these plans effectively at the basin level, and strong stakeholder institutions such as irrigation cooperatives and irrigation unions have not yet been established. In our country, Agricultural Drought Management was established in 2012 with a regulation that was renewed in 2022. Central management units and provincial agricultural drought crisis centres have been established in the provinces. However, in order to take more effective measures against drought, this institutionalisation must also be established at the river and agricultural basin levels.

Some Country Examples

Australia has carried out significant work in combating drought. Additionally, EU countries that have transitioned to integrated river basin management are effectively combating seasonal drought. This is because an effective water policy is essential for adapting to drought risk. Spain stands out among EU countries for its practices in this area. Some states in the United States, such as Washington and California, have been struggling with drought for many years and have developed their practices in drought risk management.

In these countries, drought is combated through integrated planning at the river basin level, with technology support and a participatory approach.

Countries such as Chile and Brazil are actively seeking effective solutions to combat drought. Israel's technology-supported drought management policies are also notable examples in this regard. Like Israel, China is another country that has been affected by drought and is working to implement effective technology-supported measures.