Is the Russia-Ukraine War a Trial of the United States?
Is the war in Ukraine today a result of NATO's expansionist policies? Or is it due to a unipolar or at most bipolar world policy of the USA? Let's try to analyze the stage reached today with its historical, strategic, military and economic dimensions.
Historical Perspective
Russia, citing its historical ties with Ukraine, started a military operation against Ukraine. In fact, even under this argument of Putin, Ukraine no longer has ties with Russia, and it has more relations with the West. Until the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991, Ukraine can be said to have ties to the Soviet Union. However, when the Russian Federation was established in 1991, Ukraine did not want to establish a bond with Russia and preferred the path of independence. In other words, it can be said that under this argument of Putin lies the implementation of the Soviet Union's status and policies, at least in the Soviet era. If things go as Russia wants in Ukraine, it was thought that the next steps would probably be taken in this way.
In general, there are general acceptances and understandings that the developments that led to the dissolution of the Soviet Union started with the invasion of Afghanistan in 1979. After the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, the USA maintained its unipolar hegemony in international politics until the Second Gulf War (2003) and afterwards. Especially since 2005, Russia's efforts to regain its former power and influence, that is, to become a "superpower", have increasingly continued. With the Arab Spring, Russia settled in Syria, almost opposing the USA and did not hesitate to remind that it was a superpower again. It is even stated that in Syria, Russia even tried the tactics that it would use in the Ukraine invasion plan. Considering Putin's leadership character and behavior, it could be predicted that Russia could take such a step in 2017. Because 2017 was the 100th anniversary of the Soviet Bolshevik Revolution. While Russia started to show its former power in the international arena, China increased its economic power and even started trade wars with the USA. Especially in this period, China's policies regarding Hong Kong and Taiwan were clearly stated by President Xi Jinping at the Communist Party Congress in December 2017, saying, "China does not even have 1 cm2 of land to give." The US-based assessments that China will be a military rival with the US after the 2035s are too many to be denied. In other words, if everything continued like this, the USA would have to deal with both Russia and China after 2030. In other words, a two-front war or conflict awaited the USA in Europe and the Far East.
NATO-2030 Strategic Concept
NATO, on the other hand, prepared a strategic weaving called “Together in a New Age – 2030” in December 2020 and shared it with the public. In fact, this document was prepared by the "Smart Men" group, which was not prepared at NATO Headquarters, but was determined by the Secretary General, consisting of experienced diplomats who had worked in NATO and its organs for many years. In this report, the Russian Federation was described as a threat to NATO, just as it was during the Cold War, and it was stated that it should be stopped no matter what. Another remarkable point in the report is that China was first perceived as an "Economic threat" in a NATO strategic document. In addition, concepts such as "multipolar" and "multilateral" world and politics were added to all these, especially with the effect of the Covid-19 pandemic. Meanwhile, in August 2021, the United States and NATO withdrew from Afghanistan as if to miss it. In fact, this withdrawal was stated as the end of the US rule and the beginning of a multipolar world in the international arena.
According to the NATO – 2030 strategic concept, Russia was the first priority threat. Therefore, by 2030, Russia had to be economically weakened and its military power had to be disabled somehow. However, in recent years, Russia has both economically developed with gas and oil revenues and advanced militarily in some areas compared to the USA. The US or NATO had two hesitations about Russia. The first was its classical military power, and the second was the state of its nuclear power. The USA should have understood this before its fight with China in 2030 and beyond, and should have weakened Russia economically and prevented it from confronting it militarily in its fight against China.
The Defender Europe-21 exercise gave the USA and NATO this opportunity. DefenderEurope was an exercise based on the scenario that US troops would come to the aid of their European allies in case of any crisis or conflict. In June 2021, the exercise started to be played over Eastern Europe and the Black Sea. Russia had many times previously determined Ukraine's membership to NATO as its red line.
Later, it recognized the independence of the Donbas and Kuhensk regions in the east of Ukraine, where separatist and pro-Russian militias and Russian-speaking people live in eastern Ukraine, and then on February 24, a military operation by Russia began in Ukraine.
Who Will Win?
First of all, let's try to evaluate Russia's military operation and course from a strategic point of view. When we look at today, the 13th day of the war, Russia's advance in Ukraine continues. Russia seems to have probably won the war militarily. However, from a strategic point of view, the situation may change. First of all, it was as if Russia's political target was not completely clear or was hidden. Because Russia had targeted Zelinsky and his government in all their statements, even the USA offered Zelinsky to go out of the country. However, the political goal of Russia's military action is understood as the occupation of all Ukraine. Then we can say that the war will continue until the occupation of all Ukraine. However, the situation does not develop that way. Is this possible? Even if it does happen physically, we can talk about a devastating war and period that will continue for many years afterwards. When we think of the political goal as capturing the government center as soon as possible, overthrowing the Zelensky government and occupying Eastern Ukraine, it can be said that the military operation carried out includes more than this political goal. Because right now Russia; It conducts military operations from approximately four axes, with two axes from the East-South and the North. This increases the size of the battlefield, and since it lengthens the logistics lines, its supply becomes difficult. In addition, due to the prolongation of the time factor, the social media-oriented psychological operation techniques applied to Russia and its armed forces leave Russia in a difficult situation. In addition, civilian settlements and civilians have been targeted recently. When we look at the "completely black" houses in civilian settlements, especially in TV images, it is understood that thermobaric bombs and their derivatives are used there.
Gerasimov Doctrine, and Hybrid Warfare
Valery Gerasimov still serves as the Chief of the General Staff of Russia. With the start of the operation, there were a lot of rumors about him, such as he quit his job and was dismissed. In an article published by Gerasimov in 2013; He emphasized that in the 21st century, the borders between war and peace have begun to blur, wars will be fought without a declaration of war, and it has begun to go beyond the characteristics of war that has been experienced until now. . In fact, what Gerasimov wrote was the basis of hybrid warfare. Although hybrid warfare techniques have been used on a limited basis by Russia in the operation carried out so far, they have been used and continue to be used by Ukraine to a great extent. Especially social media, the participation of the civilian population in the war, local militia forces, foreign country support, Zelensky's own statements and posts can be given as examples.
With the start of the operation, interesting posts are made from the operation area, especially about Russian soldiers and troops. The vehicles that run out of fuel, expired groceries, the Ukrainians who serve tea and cake to the Russian soldiers are the most interesting ones, the Russian or Ukrainian spies/civilians who were allegedly settled in the cities of Ukraine by Russia before the start of the operation. Russian was already used in both countries. These spies, called "Diversan-Corruptor", were used both to mark and greet military units and to destroy some targets. In other words, these are what we saw on TV and social media at the beginning of the operation in civilian clothes and military clothes. The war, which took place in the last days with the appearance of civilians and militias in the field of operation, has almost turned into a "Slavic Civil War".
Metaverse and International relations
With the start of the war, both sides were blamed and criticized, especially because the civilian population was harmed and the progress of the Russian troops was not at the desired speed. In fact, in the coming days, Russia and the USA have held each other responsible for what happened and for the harm to the civilian population, and it states that they will hold each other. Although it is not possible at the moment, countries may, in the future, fight each other in a virtual environment before a real war, to see the results of the operation they will carry out at a near-accurate level, and perhaps to reconsider their war decision. In this sense, the concept of Metavers, which has been called the "other universe" in recent years, can be widely used in the fields of security, defense and international relations. Because the combatants should definitely take into account the "Desired / Undesired End State-Desired / Undesired End State" in such operations. In this respect
In addition to the states, private defense and security companies can also be used. Because the concept of hybrid warfare is a broad concept that includes all the subjects that have been used on the battlefield or will be used in the future.
Legionnaires' Union
One of the most interesting issues in this war is that the President of Ukraine, Zelensky, said that he created a legionnaire for those who want to fight for Ukraine from foreign countries. So far, this association has been included in open sources where there are around 20000 applications. But are they really voluntary? Or is it a group of old and new soldiers? It is not known exactly. However, this is a method that has not been explicitly stated and used in wars so far. However, in the coming days, different conflicts may be seen in the Ukraine operation area with Russian Wagner and Kadyrov's Chechen fighters, US Blackwater, Syria's anti-Russian Chechens from Idlib, fighters from Afghanistan, Neo-Nazi groups that may come from Europe. However, the civilian population will suffer the most from these groups, which do not recognize the rules and act outside the law of war.
Conclusion
As of the current stage, many question marks have arisen about the conventional power, although the operation continues, albeit slowly, especially since Russia has air superiority. These; Supply and logistics, preparation for operation, lack of precision-guided munitions, effective use of the air force, low operation speed, damage to civilians can be stated as lack of training and discipline issues. However, despite all these negativities, the superiority of the situation in terms of military operations is in Russia. In addition, no news has been shared that the Ukrainian armed forces, especially the ground forces, have been used in any region or have made a counter-attack. Ukraine is trying to stop Russian forces by putting civilians and civilian militias to the fore. In addition, the progress, albeit small, in the peace talks gives hope for the future. If progress is made in the Antalya Diplomacy Forum, which will start on March 11, it will be good for Turkey as well.
The United States has so far been aware of Russia's conventional troops in the context of the above-mentioned issues, and has seen the situation of Russian troops, especially ground troops. However, it is a mystery that Russia does not use its air power effectively. Did he hide it on purpose, or is this his strength? In our opinion, the most important issue that the United States focuses on is when will Russia get its nuclear power? Where? Under what conditions does it use it? However, Russia has not given any definite indication about this. Even in the Zaporoshia nuclear power plant it has captured, it has been careful so far.
Naturally, the effects of the war will affect the whole world, especially the countries in the region. It's even starting to affect it now. The fact that Russia is a major natural gas and oil producer country has affected the oil markets, and then all markets have been affected by the domino effect. Even if we assume that the war has ended as of today, it is predicted that its economic impact will continue for years due to the embargoes to be applied to Russia. In addition, extraordinary increases may be seen in the prices of commodities such as wheat, sunflower oil and some mines due to the prolongation of the war and the increase in sanctions against Russia.
The less economically devastated Russia is at the end of the war, the more Russia's victory will be their gain, the more the USA and NATO hurt Russia. It can also be stated that after this war, the next struggle in the world will be in the Far East.
