Is War At Our Door? (1)

In the last quarter century; proxy wars, irregular warfare, terrorism, asymmetric wars, civil wars, etc. We've heard plenty of military definitions. It can even be said that we have developed an affinity for them. Therefore, when war is mentioned, we see that our understanding tends towards these concepts. But nowadays, in the same way we saw in the old world wars, we are confronted with the risks of conventional conflict again on a national and even global scale.

If we try to predict the nature and rise of a possible conflict in accordance with the spirit of the age, is it possible to predict what kind of picture we will face? I would like to do a brain training in the framework of this question.

In the Ukraine-Russia border crisis, which has been on the world agenda for nearly six months, Russia seems to be the next move as of now. Because the US-led Western coalition apparently prefers to ignore all the demands and concerns of the Russians in December 2021.

In the east of Russia, there is a Chinese factor approaching from the window of forming a temporary alliance with itself. For this reason, China takes a stance that it is largely friendly, not an enemy, of Russia in the current circumstances. In the circumstances of Sino-Russian rapprochement, Russia's options to divert its attention eastward or its course of action cannot find ground.

Option 1:

Let's say Russia has carried out a limited military operation with Ukraine. It doesn't matter this time or that time. In a way, let the Western Bloc act with the acceptance that Russia will suffer if it responds with direct military action against Russia. The parties (Western Bloc and the Russian Federation) are expected to choose as their target a place that is not directly on Russian territory but targets Russian soldiers. In this sense, from a global perspective, which regions can be identified as alternative targets for the West?

Option 2:

In my personal opinion, it may be a possibility to open a front against the Russians in the Arctic Area via Norway and start a military operation from there. Desired indirect results can be achieved with an operation to be launched against specially equipped Russian military assets stationed at the poles. But this front may not be limited to Norway. The Russian response may widen the front. A Russian military retaliation against countries such as Sweden, Finland and even Poland may be on the agenda. Perhaps for this reason, European states may not naturally want a crisis that will spread over such a wide area. In addition, this attempt can undoubtedly damage the internal resistance of Europe and the unity of the alliance from a political point of view.

Option 3:

Could it be that the Western world is triggering the Kuril Islands issue via Japan to harass the Russians? Obviously, the situation of the Japanese army and the realities of the country are not mature enough in this regard. Of course, it would be a very attractive idea to add a new one to the Russo-Japanese wars that have taken place many times in history. However, it is obvious that the time has not come yet and the idea has not matured enough. It may also make more sense to US interests to continue to ensure that, for the moment, Japanese military power is focused primarily on the threats and risks posed by China.

Option 4:

Can a front be opened over the Central Asia and Afghanistan line? Frankly, the Western attitude displayed in the light of both the withdrawal from Afghanistan and the Kazakhstan events can tell us that we are looking at an option that does not seem very realistic. Even if small-scale movements are possible in this region, it can be said that it will not be a meaningful operation that will disturb the Russians. For Russia, the front to be opened in these regions can be seen as a secondary Western attack, as long as it does not lead to an advance into Russia. Moreover, an 'energy' that would cause conflict in this region has not yet accumulated. In addition, logistical difficulties negatively affect the continuity of this region in terms of operations for the West. Therefore, it may be wise not to include this geography in the options in any operation planning.

Option 5:

Let's move on to the most logical and most painful option left. The US-led Western Bloc may engage in an operation to destroy/deactivate all Russian assets in Syria, especially in Africa. Clearing the Mediterranean region, which can be described as the rear of the alliance or the weak belly of the alliance, from Russian influence is a military goal that would seem logical. It also constitutes an excellent laboratory for testing new weapons and technologies in the hands of the Western Bloc against the Russian air defense in highly strengthened Syria.

A direct result of this situation is to be able to drive Turkey, which the Western world has clearly wanted to wear out and weaken for a long time, to the field of operations as a direct front country against Russia. Because a military operation to be carried out against the Russian military presence in Syria 

The next operation, no matter which forces are launched by it, can completely engulf Turkey and turn it into a front of the war. In addition, when the state of turmoil and civil war that has been going on for ten years in Syria is evaluated, it is clear that Turkey's consent and willingness will not be required to launch such an operation. In other words, it is very possible to start a process despite Turkey.

On the other hand, there is a Turkey that has been opening up to Africa for years and has accumulated a lot of strength and friendship in this continent. Of course, in the African continent, Turkey is faced with three countries in the playing field. Of these, Russia, with its military power; France stands out with its past colonial origins, and China with its economic power and political approaches with continuity. A direct military action against Russia may be a possibility to create a common ground of action between the alliance members France and Turkey. It can be predicted that the UK, which has a deep influence and influence on the continent, can also stand by France and Turkey as a positive catalyst. Obviously, such cooperation may be deemed necessary in order to create a synergy that can sweep Russia and China from the African continent, and may lead to the establishment of a common action union.

In the meantime, a large-scale military operation to take place in Syria may make it possible for Turkey to gain a certain level of strength in its fight against elements that it describes as terrorist organizations and render these organizations "ineffective". Meanwhile, Peshmerga forces can also be included in this equation. With the resurrection of the ISIS terrorist organization, a serious clue was given in this regard and the task of laying the groundwork for the preparation/supply operations was fulfilled. It is also possible that these brutal terrorist elements, whose field experience has reached a high level in time, and therefore whose level of education has increased, will be brought to the surface in Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.

The geography of the Middle East and North Africa has countless potentials to start a war without Turkey. Wars or instability to be started can be continued to the desired extent and for the desired time. However, only a war in which Turkey will be involved in terms of the West will get results and reach a conclusion. If we approach the issue from the point of view of the USA, we can see that this country acts with the understanding of expanding the areas of instability under its control to new geographies.

"We will bring Turkey into the war at a time it never expected, in a place it did not expect, in an unexpected way." This sentence, which an American missed at one time, is quite significant. Naturally, it brings to mind the need to look at the Caucasus, the Balkans or elsewhere. I think we should not forget this. It is one of the most convenient ways to expand a person's perspective and attention, to point out distant areas to himself, to actually plan something against him under his nose. We must not forget: In the nature of capitalism, optimization of profit and minimization of loss takes precedence.

Of course, it is obvious that there will be Russian and Chinese moves against the US and British moves. I think that the attack carried out by the Houthis in the UAE, with the encouragement of Iran, is a message that should be evaluated within this framework. This move, in a way, brought about the postponement of the possible Ukrainian operation for a while. But these possible moves should be the subject of a separate article.

With this article, I wanted to bring to your attention a clear and current threat (Clear and Present Danger) that Turkey is likely to face. While I was writing this article, another Tom Clancy movie came to my mind involuntarily. “The Sum of All Fears”. If you haven't watched it, I suggest you take a look. Best regards...