Moscow on the Black Sea: Russia and Israel's Relationship In Context of Turkish Geopolitics

Turkey has closed its airspace to Russian civilian and military planes flying to Syria. The announcement mark one of the strongest response by Turkey, which has cultivated close ties with Moscow despite being a member of the NATO alliance but Russia will faces a big challange in case of its existance in Syria. Turkish Foreign Ministry said, “We closed the airspace to Russia’s military planes and even civilian ones flying to Syria. We were giving permissions in three-month intervals. The latest one was until April, henceforth the flights have stopped and the process is being conducted through dialogue on both the Montreux Convention and other matters.”  Turkish officials said, they conveyed the decision to their Russian counterparts who relayed to the President Vladimir Putin afterthat Russian diplomats replied that, “Putin has issued an order, we will not fly anymore.”

There was no immediate response to Turkey’s announcement from Russia which it is together with Iran has been a crucial supporter of Syrian regime during the war torn country’s civil war. Turkey’s decision to close airspace to Russian aircrafts is totally formulated in accordance to “Rimland Geopolitical Theory” given the fact that Geopolitical Importance of Turkey and Montreux Conventions are coming up top of the agenda for both NATO and Russia in which political geography is directly related to the courses of global geopolitics on the “Rimland Theory” with regard to energy policies together with security of Israel as well. With regard to President Putin failed to achieve his goal of quickly crushing Ukraine’s army and the Russians were ill-prepared against Ukrainian resistance which is essentially proving that Russians are incapable regarding military fightings on ground and they failed to effectively combine air and land operations by misjudging Ukraine’s ability to defend its own territory. Israeli Decision Makers and Israeli Goverment Officials began to asking questions about that “How will Russia, which cannot even take Kiev, will able to keep Damascus in balance? and How does keep Iran and Hezbollah away from the Golan Heights? How Israel's security will be ensured inside Rimland Geopolitics? In this point Russian-Israeli relations shall be well analysed and evalauated from geopolitical dimensions.

The Russian Foreign Ministry criticized for the Anti-Russian remarks made by Israeli Foreign Minister Yair Lapid who defended Israel's vote to suspend Russia from the United Nations Human Rights Council. The Russian Foreign Ministry evaluated Lapid's statements as "regrettable” eventhough Israel has refrained from helping Ukraine in exchange of Russia protect its coexistance with Israeli Defence Force IDF when it is come to airstrike in Syria. On the other hand Syrian Regime always bringing Golan Heights as discussion issue on negotiations table and the Russians were supporting Syrian Regime’s Position. Most important case was that Russia is also recruiting militias from Hezbollah to fight in Ukraine as such recruiting from Chechens. Moreover Russia insterestingly running to recruitment process by using Hmeymim Air Base which is also being used for Russian aviation dominance at Middle East. At this point, Turkey’s decision to close its airspace to Russian civilian and military planes flying to Syria must have to be analysed from this angle.

Eventhough Israeli-Russian military coordination is still going on to keep quite and providing safety at israeli border by providing balance from Tartus Naval Base however Russian is also raising voice against Israeli Defence Force- IDF air strike operation in Damascus. At this point Israeli Decision Makers of Jerusalem started to think about Russian military reliability inside Rimland Region of the Middle East through well analysing about Russia incapable to capture Kyiv. Since Ukranian war initiated by Russian troops on the 24th of February 2022, Israeli Goverment had to take into account three major objectives; one is the internal situation the position of the Israeli civil society namely Israeli public consist of 15 percent Russian speaking people which also make a pressure on Israeli Goverment on foreign policy  formulations  therefore Israel would like to protect its social cohesion inside domestic policy, second objective is to protection on Israeli –Moscow and Israeli- Kyiv relations in which during the Russian campaign,  Israel has expressed solidarity with Ukraine but avoided direct criticism against Russia. Thirdly, we should understant that those who make decisions in Jerusalem perfectly realize about the international context in principle that Israel is doing war with Iran. At this point,  After eleven months of talks, negotiators appear close to striking an agreement to revive the Iran nuclear deal, which aiming to lift sanctions on Tehran in exchange for curbs on its nuclear program. But the negotiations have been complicated by a last-minute demand from Russia required "written guarantees" from the United States that wide-ranging western sanctions targeting Moscow that would not affect its economic and military cooperation with Iran.

The United States has promptly rejected Russia's demand and on this regard Secretary of State Antony Blinken saying that “such demands are irrelevant and that sanctions on Russia over its Ukraine invasion have nothing to do with the Iran nuclear deal.” Russian demand to cooperation with Iran led to Israeli Decision Makers to think how was the best idea to make rapprochement with Turkey. Therefore Turkish Geopolitical Awakening will come out on “Rimland of Middle East” and Turkish Geopolitical Awakening is matching with Halford Mackinder’s defination of “World Island Theory”. In this concept, Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoğlu announced about the closing airspace to Russian civilian and military assets and this issue will be analysed from this perspective.

Turkish Israeli relations based on geopolitical formulations of “Peripherial Doctrine” which have been formulated by David Ben Gurion first Prime Minister of Israel. Nowadays Turkey will have to come out as security provider actor against expansionist Ayatollah Regime of Iran particularly against Hezbollah threats in “Rimland Geography Inside Middle East Region ” in relation to that Turkey become balancer actor to protect “Hearthland Geography of Eurasia” considering vulnarable Eastern European countries. In this context, it is very interesting to note that Poland which is a member of the European Union and NATO announced that will purchase Bayraktar TB2 UAVs from Turkey. It is the first time a NATO member will acquire Turkish drones therefore Poland would buy amount of 24 Bayraktar TB2 drones from the Turkish Baykar Company. The "Bayraktar Drones" has become so popular that Western officials have praised Turkey's Bayraktar TB2 drones for playing a part in countering Russian attacks at “Hearthland Geography of Eurasia Region.” On the other hand, Russian impassivity to security matter of Golan Heights relating with Russian having diplomatic spats with State of Israel have created power gap in the region. It is important to mention that emerging power gap pave the way for the Russia’s Black Sea flagship missile cruiser, the Moskva sank while being towed to port after an explosion. Ukraine claimed that it had struck the Moskva with Neptune anti-ship cruise missiles while distracting its crew with an aerial drone. At this point American Washington Post mentioned about it as claiming that “That is precisely what Russian forces experienced when so many of their tanks, armored vehicles and aircraft were taken out by Ukrainian troops armed with portable missiles such as Stingers and Javelins, and drones such as the Turkish Bayraktar TB2, more than 1,800 Russian vehicles and 96 Russian aircraft have been destroyed so far. Ukraine employed Neptune antiship missiles to sink the cruiser Moskva, flagship of the Russian Black Sea Fleet, after reportedly distracting the crew with a TB2 drone.”

The last-minute demand of Russia for written guarantees to curb western sanctions which is strongly targeting to Moscow’s financial system and Russians put this demands on the way of Iranian nuclear deal strongly jeopardize Israeli security in Middle East. In this point The Russian Foreign Ministry criticized the remarks made by Israeli Foreign Minister Yair Lapid who defended Israel's vote to suspend Russia from the United Nations Human Rights Council. Furthermore Russian impassivity to Security of Golan Heights which finally paved way for the Russian diplomatic spats arised with State of Israel. In this point, As Turkey developed its security ties with Goverment of Jerusalem in paralled to becoming geopolitical power by filling power gap in “Hearthland Region of Geopolitical Theory” which had consequence for the collapsing of Russian leg at Black Sea as a result of that the apparent sinking of the Black Sea Feet’s Flagship which is representing a symbolic slap to Kremlin face. The Sinking of the Moskva meaning a blow to Russia’s main campaign objectives. According to reports, it was also carrying S-300 anti-air missiles, which are crucial to Russia’s air power over the Crimea and Ukraine’s Kherson province therefore Russia will not be able to replace the capabilities of the Moskva any time soon. It only has two other ships of the same class-the Marshal Ustinov and the Varyag- which serve with Russia’s Northern and Pacific Fleets respectively. To reach the Ukrainian theater both would need to pass through the Bosphorus into the Black Sea. However the waterway between Istanbul is controlled by Turkey, in which Turkey will not let warships from any state pass through. it is still fresh mind for the Turkish Decision Makers that Russian Warship have passed through Istanbul’s Bosphorus en route to the Mediterranean on  December of  2015, One soldier was seen in footage of the boat passing holding a ground-to-air missile aiming to target Istanbul city. The soldier held the missile on his shoulder in the shooting position during the passing of Russia’s “Caesar Kunikov” warship was pure provocation at that time. After 7 years later of this incident, Russia’s Black Sea flagship missile cruiser, the Moskva sank was important event from this angle.

As Russia losting its important leg of battle ship on Black Sea as as a result of its impassivity regarding Security Matters of Golan Heights opened way for Turkey as dominant power by establishing security and intelligence partnership with State of Israel fort he Middle East Geopolitics to implement for what is necessary in accordance to “World Island Theory” therefore one who  will control the Rimland of Middle East  the who will control the Hearthland of Eurasia on the way of controlling world destiny.

To understant Geopolitical Developments in Middle East and Eastern Europe, One should profoundly analyse about the diplomatic crisis erupted between Israel and Russia with respect to Security of Golan Heights regarding Hezbollah existance in Syria. At this point Israeli Decision Makers of Jerusalem started to think about Russian military reliability in Eurasia become vulnarable and weak as a result of Russia’s incapable position to capture Kyiv. Therefore Israeli Decision Makers and Israeli Goverment officials suddenly asking question of that “How will Russia, which is not able to take Kiev then will keep Damascus in balance? and How Russia will able to keep Iran and Hezbollah away from the Golan Heights? How Israel's security will be ensured? Finally, it should be important to note that Russian Moskva cruiser sank in Black Sea in parallel to Turkey’s decision to close its airspace to Russian civilian together with military planes flying to Syria emerged as a result of the worst diplomatic standoff between Russia and Israel.  The Russian foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has accused Israel of supporting “National Resistance” in Ukraine a day after stating with false and ugly claims together with outrageous anti semitic unforgivable allegations by attributing “Adolf Hitler’s atrocities druing the holocaust”. Finally it created a sharp deparute from Israel’s previous attempts to mediate in the conflict.

Kremlin which is increasingly isolated by all over the world but President Vladimir Putin’s Regime had a good relationship with Israel but this relations have been endangered at the ciritical time of war by Sergey Lavrov words. Eventhough Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett has until now in a poistion of helding back from criticising Russia, however in accordance to Israeli point of view, that is a red line which touches Isreal directly and atrocities against Israeli history. Sergey Lavrov words which is even not a premeditated attack but it was nonetheless an attack to jewish honor on holocaust memory was important to people of all political parties in Israel and it was abudantly clear that Israeli decision makers should start geopolitical formulations on Middle East regarding Post-Russia process for Syrian Domestic War. From geopolitical point of view; regarding Israeli diplomatic positioning for the Ukraine War it was very delicate dance for Israel but After Sergey Lavrov words, rest of the world together with Israel will looking forward for the Ukranians have success on battlefield. This incident by itself given to Israel more incentives and free space to take Ukraine’s side. But it should be underlined that if those incident would happen in the first week of the Ukraine war commenced as situation and potential scenarios were different of course Israeli response would have been different however after two month later of this war, fate of battlefield is going to certain direction and the Israeli Goverment feels a little bit freer to go out and make statements in favour of NATO.

Russian Israeli diplomatic standoff emerged because of the fact that Russian army’s incapable on battlefield. At this point, powerless and weak Russia even would not able to restrain Ayatollah’s Regime of Iran. All this issues proved strategic importance of Turkey once again that Russian Israeli diplomatic standoff suprisingly pushed Russia to make some concession to United States therefore Turkish President Erdogan's office said that Putin "thanked" the Turkish leader in a phone call for helping arrange the exchange of ex-Marine Trevor Reed for the former Russian pilot Konstantin Yaroshenko. The prisoner swap took place in Turkey "under the coordination and supervision of the National Intelligence Organisation," Erodgan's office said in reference to Turkey's MIT intelligence service. President Erdogan said that coordination and close dialogue between intelligence units should be continued," his office said.

The exchange of ex-Marine Trevor Reed for the former Russian pilot Konstantin Yaroshenko are deeply related to strong Turkish ties with Israeli security and intelligence establishment. The new chapter in bilateral relations between Turkey and Israel opens the door for cooperation in many areas all the way from military cooperation to intelligence matters as well.  For the Israeli perspective, security issues must be resolved firstly before establishing commercial partnership.  At this point intelligence sharing between two countries come up for the top of the agenda therefore Turkish Intelligence Agency MIT and Israeli Intelligence Agency Mossad started to work togehter. For Instance Turkey's National Intelligence Organization (MIT) uncovered a plot directed by Iran to assassinate an Israeli businessperson . Turkish MIT’s counterintelligence branch discovered that Iran's intelligence agency put together a network in Turkey to target an Israeli businessperson, Turkish MIT concluded that the network had completed the reconnaissance stage of its mission, it reached out to Mossad to inform the Israeli intelligence community that the gang was planning to move on to the next step in their plan for assassinating Israeli businesman. Officials from the two intelligence agencies held a secret meeting in the capital Ankara and decided to move businessman to a safe house, where Mossad operatives would provide him protection. Second incident was that The Mossad foiled a Iranian attempt to assassinate an Israeli diplomat working at the consulate in Istanbul in accordance to Hebrew-language media reported on May 2022.

Under this circumstances, Turkish Israeli strong intelligence cooperation paved way for Turkey to manage the exchange of ex-Marine Trevor Reed for the former Russian pilot Konstantin Yaroshenko. With this event, Russia given concession to United States finally Turkey find opportunity develop ties with United States on the basis of NATO. Furthermore prisoner exchanging event also given uppher hand to Turkey to launch of the operation, known as Operation Claw-Lock to Northern Iraq. Turkish Operation Claw Lock was important to curb Iranian threats in “Rimland Geography of Middle East” as well.

As Russian’s campaign launched to Ukraine but interestingly in the early days of the war Iran’s Revolutionary Guards claim the missile attacks, saying “it targeted Israeli Strategic Centre” in Iraq. Therefore Iran’s Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) have taken responsibility for ballistic missile attacks in Iraq’s northern regional capital of Erbil. As Northern Iraqi Goverment stated that about 12 missiles launched from outside Iraq then US State Department spokesperson called it an “outrageous attack” but said no Americans were hurt and there was no damage to United States Government Facilities in Erbil. Iranian’s attack to Northern Iraq coincided with Russian’s military campaign to Ukraine which have been evaluated as “Geopolitical Aggression” by United States and NATO as well. Together with diplomatic standoff between Israel culminated with Russian’s impassivity to Ayatollah Regime’s role in Golan Height’s paved pay for the Turkish balancing factor by closing airspace to Russia in parallel to sinking of the Moskva Black Sea fleets. All of those representing geopolitical game to dominate Hearthland of Eurasia in accordance to “World Island Theory” consequenlty, prisoner exchanging issue also given uppher hand to Turkey to launch Operation Claw-Lock to Northern Iraq. At this point, Turkish Operation of Claw Lock come up as important factor to curb Iranian threats in Rimland Geography of Middle East.

Turkish Operation of Claw Lock have been launched an air and ground offensive targeting PKK terrorist organisation in pockets of Duhok province on April 18 of 2022. Only days before Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan ordered the launch of the Operation of Claw-Lock, Turkish President have met with the Northern Iraqi Goverment Prime Minister Masrour Barzani, an apparent signal that the KRG was supportive because of the fact that Iranian ballistic missile attacks in Iraq’s northern regional capital of Erbil as claiming to target Israeli Strategic Centre. At this point Turkish Military Operation of Claw Lock was aiming to have geopolitical purpose rather than doing operation against PKK terrorist organisation. After Russian offensive in Eurasia culminated with Russian’s impassivity to Hezbollah’s role in Golan Height pave the way for the Iraninan Geopolitical Aggression activity by ballistic missile attacks in Iraq’s Northern Regional Capital of Erbil. From Geopolitical point of view, Turkey’s strengthened ties with State of Israel led to Turkish geopolitical awakening in Eurasia by which Russia given concession to United States with prisoner exchanging event under the Turkish MIT auspieces have given opportunity to launch of the operation against Iranian influence in Northern Iraq. Turkish Military operation of Claw Lock come up as important factor curb Iranian threats in Middle East therefore Turkey achieved coordination with Erbil Goverment to provide security for the Northern Iraqi natural gas route to European Market where there is a desperate need for alternatives to Russian natural gas.

Russian Israeli diplomatic standoff together with Iranian influence in Middle East Geopolitics that will give more leverage Turkey to approach to NATO to provide security in  “Rimland Region”. At this point, Turkey would respond to any attack on a NATO ally throughout the Ukranian conflict. Furthermore Turkey’s top diplomats added that “in the event of the slightest attack on any ally, We will respond adequately.” It should be noted that NATO is not a direct participant in the Ukraine conflict, but its member states have shipped weapons and ammunations to Volodymyr Zelensky’s Goverment therefore The United States has shared intelligence with Kyiv by which Ukrainian troops are being trained on NATO bases in Europe. After Russian Israeli standoff emerged then Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has accused NATO of going to war with Russia through a proxy and arming that proxy forces. Actually Russian Decision Makers were indicating the case of “the Russia’s Black Sea flagship missile cruiser, the Moskva sank which was a symbolic slap to Kremlin face. On this point Russian President Vladimir Putin warned outside players against intervening in the conflict and threatening to unleash a “swift, lightening fast response” should Russia’s security be put at risk.

President Putin failed to achieve his goal of quickly crushing Ukraine’s army resistance which is proving that Russian Army are incapable regarding military fightings on ground and they failed to effectively combine air and land operations by misjudging Ukraine’s ability to defend its own territory. At this point,  Israeli decision makers and Israeli Goverment Officials began to asking questions of that “How will Russia, which cannot even take Kiev, will able to keep Damascus in balance?  As Russians demanding for free hand on Iranian sanctions in connecting  with western sanctions over Ukraine together with impassivity on Golan Heights against Hezbollah all of which pushed Israel to vote to suspend Russia from the United Nations Human Rights Council. The Russian foreign ministry criticized on "Anti-Russian" remarks made by Israeli Foreign Minister Yair Lapid, in which he defended Israel's vote to suspend Russia from the United Nations Human Rights Council. As Russia losting its important leg of battle ship on Black Sea, Turkey as dominant power on Middle East Geopolitics to implement for the what is necessary in accordance to Mackinder’s “World Island Theory” therefore one who will control the Rimland of Middle East then who will control the Hearthland of Eurasia on the way of controlling world destiny.

Although a NATO member, Turkey fields some Russian weapons systems and its insistence on purchasing the Russian made S -400 air defense system after having been excluded from the US’ F-35 jet fighter program in 2019.  On the other hand Turkey has sold domestically produced TB2 drones to Ukraine as refusing to impose sanctions against Moscow. Moreover Istanbul has hosted peace talks between Ukranian and Russian negotiators moreover Turkey has offered to host talks between Putin and Zelensky. Ankara has been careful not step on Moscow’s toes across different conflict zones. Turkey and Russia have also developed a unique form of relationship often  known as competitive cooperation, whereby they back opposing sides in conflicts in Libya, Syria and South Caucasus by doing so in a way that recognizes each other’s expanding sphere of influence. However Turkey suprisingly has closed its airspace to Russian civilian and military planes flying to Syria. The announcement mark one of the strongest response by Turkey meaning that Russia will faces a big challange in case of its existance in Syria where Russa recruiting militias to fight in Ukraine  by using Hmeymim Air Base. Turkey’s decision to close its airspace to Russian civilian together with military planes flying to Syria have pushed Russia  to make some concession to United States therefore the prisoner exchange of ex-Marine Trevor Reed for the former Russian pilot Konstantin Yaroshenko took place in Turkey "under the coordination and supervision of the National Intelligence Organisation. . Furthermore prisoner exchanging event also given uppher hand to Turkey to  launch of the operation, known as Operation Claw-Lock to Northern Iraq which it should be noted that Turkish Operation Claw Lock was important to curb Iranian threats emerging in “ Rimland Geography of Middle East ” because of  the fact that Iran’s Revolutionary Guards claim the missile attacks, saying “it targeted Israeli strategic centre” in Iraq’s northern regional capital of Erbil. ”  Finally Russian’s diplomatic offensive against Israel will give more opportunity to Turkey given the fact that geography is directly related to the courses of global geopolitics on the “Rimland Theory” with regard to energy policies together with security of Israel as well. 

Finally, Russia’s Admiral Makarov warship has been hit by Ukrainian missiles and burst into flames, according to Ukrainian officials. The frigate would be Russia’s latest high-profile naval loss in a troubled campaign, coming after reports that US intelligence helped Ukraine locate and sink the Russian warship Moskva weeks ago. The Makarov was said to have been sailing close to Snake Island in the Black Sea south of Odesa. Ukrainian presidential adviser Anton Gerashchenko reported that the Admiral Makarov was hit by a Ukrainian Neptune anti-ship missile. Admiral Makarov is a modern frigate loaded with guided missiles, according to the World Directory of Modern Warships. If lost, Russia’s frigate number will be down to around 10 fleet at Black Sea . At this point Turkey’s closed its airspace to Russian civilian and military planes flying to Syria was important geopolitical angle given the fact that  Russia’s approach to the Black Sea builds on a centuries-old history of confrontation with Europe’s major powers and on Russia’s long geopolitical rivalry with Turkey. Its goals include warding off any threat from NATO, either to the Russian heartland or its strategic bastion in Crimea. It also wants to undermine NATO’s cohesion by trying to stoke fissures between alliance members along the Black Sea, and to prevent Ukraine and Georgia from joining the alliance. More broadly, Moscow sees the Black Sea region as vital to its geoeconomic strategy: to project Russian power and influence in the Mediterranean, protect its economic and trade links with key European markets, and make southern Europe more dependent on Russian oil and gas. At this point Russian diplomatic standoff with Israel will have impact on Moscow presence on the Black Sea for access to the Mediterranean and beyond, both for military operations outside its immediate neighborhood and for exports of Russia’s main commodity of hydrocarbons.

* This analysis was published in INSS on May 9, 2022 in English. The Turkish version is adapted from the original article.