Party Votes and Analysis of the Situation between the Two Elections

Let's continue with some analysis today.

The results of the parliamentary elections can be considered as a big poll.

The distribution of parliamentary seats will not be of much use to us, because the electoral law has changed. 

But when the votes received by the parties are compared with the previous parliamentary elections, it will enlighten us very well on some issues.

In the 2018 elections, the number of domestic and foreign voters was 59 million 367 thousand 469.

In the 2023 elections, this number was 64 million 145 thousand 504.

In other words, the rate of increase in the number of voters has been 8.05% in the last 5 years. 

First of all, I would like to point out that this rate is much higher than Turkey's population growth rate in these five years! 

While our population was 80 million 810 thousand 525 at the end of 2017, it was 85 million 279 thousand 553 at the end of 2022. 

Therefore, the population growth rate for 5 years was 5.53%! 

Since the difference between these two rates is 2.52%, we can say that there are approximately 1.5 million extra voters in 2023. 

This difference may be due to the excessive increase in the number of people who turned 18 and became voters, but unfortunately, I think it is highly probable that this is the number of foreign voters who were granted citizenship within five years! 

This is just a suspicion of course! The exact information must be known by the Ministry of Interior or the statistical institute.

After reminding this detail, let us continue with the analysis. 

In the 2018 elections, the number of valid votes in Turkey and abroad was 50 million 137 thousand 175.

In the 2023 elections, although the public lists have not yet been announced on the YSK website, according to the results published in the press, this number seems to be 54 million 796 thousand 49.

In proportions, the rate of increase in valid votes is 9.29%. 

In other words, we can understand from this rate that there were fewer invalid votes in these elections compared to the previous elections. 

This will be the rate that we will use as a basis for comparing the votes received by the parties in both elections.

Parties that increased their votes above this rate can be considered more successful in this election, while those that fell below this rate can be considered unsuccessful.

Since we have to use valid votes for the analysis, let us continue with the analysis by taking it as a positive that voters have made fewer mistakes in voting in the last 5 years. 

I will make comparisons primarily on the basis of the parties that have a group in the parliament, and I think that this will not be unfair since I will have to bring other parties to the agenda when analyzing the differences.

Let's get started.

Let's start with the Ak Parti.

In the 2018 elections, the Ak Parti received 21 million 338 thousand 693 votes. In the 2023 election results, 19 million 387 thousand 412 votes.

The first thing that catches the eye is that the Ak Parti received even less votes than in 2018, let alone a possible 9.29% increase in the number of voters. In proportions, we can say that 3 million 934 thousand 126 voters gave up voting for the Ak Parti, while the required number was 23 million 321 thousand 538 votes. In this case, the Ak Parti lost 16.87% of its votes.

Let's continue with the People's Alliance.

In the 2018 elections, MHP received 5 million 565 thousand 331 votes. In the 2023 elections, its vote was realized as 5 million 484 thousand 515.

Again, if we calculate what should have happened by increasing the votes it received in 2018 by 9.29%, it was expected to receive 6 million 82 thousand 350 votes in these elections. However, it received 597 thousand 835 votes less than this. In this case, MHP also lost 9.83% of its votes.

According to the 2018 vote rate of the Ak Parti and MHP, their total loss from the votes they should have received in these elections is 4 million 531 thousand 961 votes.

In the 2023 elections, the votes of other parties that joined the People's alliance were 2 million 62 thousand 528. In other words, even with the new parties joining the alliance, the alliance seems to have lost 2 million 469 thousand 433 votes.

If we add to this the increase of 1 and a half million suspicious voters I mentioned above, we can say that the votes that the Cumhur alliance can get have actually decreased significantly. 

***

Let's talk about the National Alliance front.

In the 2018 elections, CHP's votes amounted to 11 million 354 thousand 190. In the 2023 elections, this vote was 13 million 791 thousand 299.

It can be calculated as 12 million 408 thousand 994 with an increase of 9.29% in voters. 

In this case, CHP increased its votes by 1 million 382 thousand 305 votes more than it should have. This vote difference could possibly be the votes of other parties that participated in the elections on CHP party lists. In particular, if we increase the 672,139 votes that the Felicity Party received separately in the last elections by our coefficient and deduct this difference, the increase in the CHP's votes actually decreases to 647,724 votes, which can be said to be a proof that the vote rates of the new parties participating in the alliance are considerably lower than expected.

Of course, in order to be able to say this, we need to calculate the votes that fled from the CHP to other parties.

These parties can be considered as the Hometown Party and TİP. It would be more accurate to consider the Zafer Party when analyzing the votes of the İYİ Party.

In this case, if we add 1 million 443 thousand 32 votes, which is the sum of 502 thousand 802 votes received by the Hometown Party and 940 thousand 230 votes received by the TİP, to the increased votes of the CHP, we can consider the 2 million 90 thousand 756 votes as the potential potential votes of Deva, Gelecek and Demokrat Parti.

The ratio of these votes to the total valid votes can give us an idea of the possible vote share of these parties together in Turkey and abroad. This ratio can be accepted as 3.81%.

No matter how hard I try to increase it, I have to say that I think this ratio is quite insufficient. 

In other words, no matter what anyone says, unfortunately these parties have failed to deliver the results expected from them in these elections. Also, if you notice, I did not include the votes of the Felicity Party in this calculation.

İYİ Party received 4 million 993 thousand 479 votes in the 2018 elections. In 2023, the votes of the İYİ Party increased to 5 million 272 thousand 482.

If we calculate what should have happened in order to make a correct evaluation, the İYİ Party should have received 5 million 457 thousand 373 votes in these elections with an increase of 9.29%. Even though it remained more or less at the same level, the İYİ Party seems to have lost a little bit of votes compared to the last elections. The difference is 184 thousand 891 votes according to our calculation. If we proportion it, we can call the loss 3.39%.

As I mentioned above, it seems that the Zafer Party has gathered the IYI Party's possible increase in votes with the 1 million 215 thousand 264 votes it received in these elections. If there was no Zafer Party, İYİ Party's votes would probably have been 1 million votes higher. This vote would have brought who knows how many more deputies to the Millet alliance in the parliament.

As I always say, there is no need to throw away votes. Aside from the ambitions of the party leaders themselves, the voters, unfortunately, no matter how well-educated they are, do not realize that these things should be handled with tactical calculations. And then this is what happens, your number of deputies in parliament falls below the parliamentary majority, let alone the level to change the constitution.

If we look at it on the basis of alliance, the total votes of CHP, İYİ Party and Felicity Party in the 2018 elections was 17 million 19 thousand 808. If we calculate what should happen in these elections, we get 18 million 600 thousand 948.  As an alliance, what could be obtained in these elections was 19 million 63 thousand 781. In other words, the Millet Alliance seems to have increased its votes by 462 thousand 833 votes as an alliance. If we calculate it proportionally, we get 2.49%, which, as I said, is an increase well below the expected effect of the new parties.

***

Let me make one last analysis for the HDP front.

In the 2018 elections, HDP's vote was 5 million 867 thousand 302. In the 2023 elections, this vote decreased to 4 million 803 thousand 774 as YSP with their new name.

While the required number of votes is 6 million 412 thousand 374, the loss of votes is 1 million 608 thousand 600. Proportionally, there is actually a 25% loss of votes on this front.

Some of this loss may have been due to the TİP, with which they entered the elections as an alliance. Above, I have taken TİP's vote into account when calculating the maximum possible vote potential of Deva, Gelecek and Demokrat Parti, but maybe some of TİP's votes could also be YSP votes.

Again, I think the opposition's eagerness to enter the elections with their own emblems, no matter how popular they are, especially among young people, has damaged the opposition in terms of the number of parliamentary seats.

Still, if we look at it on the basis of alliance, there is a loss of 668 thousand 370 votes in the Labor and Freedom alliance compared to the 2018 elections. 

I think this difference is most likely an effect of the earthquake. If we examine the votes in favor of the government in the earthquake region regionally, we will most likely see that these votes have shifted to the government front.

But let's leave this analysis at this stage. 

It seems that there is a blood loss in the People's Alliance. There also seems to be a blood loss on the YSP front. Although there is an increase in the votes of the Millet alliance, unfortunately, especially with the change in the election law made by the government, this increase has not been sufficient and they have not found what they expected.

In this situation, these elections are a lose-lose-lose for everyone in terms of parliamentary elections.

Maybe there is only a gain for the government because they were able to get the majority in the parliament anyway.

Let's see how the second round of the presidential elections will turn out. 

I don't know if this analysis has given you a perspective.

When the government has made so many mistakes in the past 5 years, when the country has almost been dragged into a catastrophe, I think it is really necessary to examine the reasons why the public has not shown as much favor to the opposition as expected.

Still, it is a last chance, maybe the voters will give the presidency to Mr. Kılıçdaroğlu in the second round and at least the country will start to breathe a little bit.

Love and respect to everyone from Moscow