Prigozhin's death was not an "accident, comrade!"

Yevgeniy Prigozhin of the Wagner Group, who two months ago launched a short-lived rebellion against the Russian army, died and/or was killed yesterday, Wednesday 23 August, when his plane exploded in mid-air with nine other passengers travelling on a private plane from Moscow to St Petersburg. Wagner founder Dmitry Utkin was also killed in the downed Embraer aircraft. According to some reports, the plane was shot down by Russian air defences with a missile. With Prigozhin's death, Air Force Commander General Sergei Surovikin, who had not been seen since the attempted mutiny, was also dismissed. His fate is unknown.

As a powerful figure who in the past commanded thousands of Wagner soldiers on the Ukrainian front and supported civil unrest and acts of violence in Africa, Prigozhin represented the most dynamic internal threat to the regime and more than two decades of Putin's rule. It was rumoured that Prigozhin, ostensibly allowed to go into seclusion in Belarus, would sooner or later be eliminated, and that no one should expect a dictator like Putin to actually forgive the rebel leader. He really didn't. Prigozhin seemingly got away with everything. In recent weeks he had been posting on social media images of himself variously claiming to be with Wagner's forces in Belarus, Saint Petersburg and even in Africa. The day before his plane was shot down, he posted a video in which he claimed to be in Africa and promised to "make Russia bigger on every continent". Despite this promise, which anyone who feels Russian would sign, Putin did not allow Prigozhin to land in St. Petersburg, having once allowed him to go to Belarus.

What do the timing and circumstances of Prigozhin's apparent death suggest about the state of Russian President Vladimir Putin's regime? What does this mean for the future of the Wagner Group, including its extensive operations in Africa? And what impact will this power struggle have on the war in Ukraine? Similar questions have been hotly debated by experts around the world since yesterday.

Putin Writes Last Series of GodFather Film, Takes Revenge on Rebel Head

During the uprising in June, the Kremlin's timid behaviour had not gone unnoticed. However, it seems that secret talks were held in the corridors of the Kremlin, reminiscent of scenes from the Godfather film, and yesterday, as an extension of these talks, revenge was taken against Prigozhin. Of course, it is not known whether this was an ordinary plane crash or a direct assassination attack on the aircraft. According to most sources, Prigozhin's plane was shot down by a missile or a drone. Although the cause of the crash is not yet clear, we have to assume that it was a deliberate attack rather than an accident.

However, he was not pushed out of a window like Prigozhin's other Kremlin opponents, nor was he exterminated by unsolved murder on the street or in the stairwell of an apartment block. The fact that he was finished off in an aeroplane exploding in mid-air shows that the Father preferred a more spectacular method. Putin, who had remained silent on the day of the rebellion, was quick to strike the fatal blow yesterday, after having thoroughly tested Prigozhin's strength. While maintaining his composure during the rebellion against his rival, he destroyed the head of the rebellion in front of the eyes of the world according to his own conditions and timing. Anyone familiar with Putin's vindictiveness already knew that from the moment Prigozhin interrupted his march to Moscow he was a walking dead man. The real death took place in August instead of June.

Putin must continue to instil fear in order to preserve his regime

Historically, it is argued that three factors must come together for political change in Russia. These are the division of the elite, a dissatisfied population and a threshold of fear that must be crossed. Putin's authoritarian rule is largely based on the silent approval of the masses. Prigozhin's revolt has momentarily put the regime to the test of its fragility. Allegedly, the elite was fragmented before the uprising and the population was largely dissatisfied with Putin. Someone had to show that fear of the Putin regime was futile, that the Kremlin had no power. Prigozhin played this role. Although he failed, Putin's throne was shaken. If Prigozhin had been left unpunished, new attempts at rebellion might have followed, other rebellions might have been attempted to oust Putin from power. Prigozhin's arrest will probably also have a deterrent effect on those in the opposition who had been thinking of going on the offensive against Putin. The Russian dictator may not be able to retain complete control, but the destruction of his most important opponent may have been enough to put possible attempts to overthrow his regime in the freezer for the time being.

Putin is following in Stalin's footsteps. He is portrayed as a ruthless leader against his opponents. Before Prigozhin, he had jailed his liberal, ultra-nationalist opponents. Alexei Navalny and Vladimir Kara-Murza were sentenced to nineteen and twenty-five years in prison respectively. Igor Girkin is also on remand. By having Prigozhin killed, the Kremlin is sending a message to its imprisoned and potential other opponents that this is how they will end up.

The Kremlin considered it necessary to silence any domestic opposition, especially to Russia's war against Ukraine. Nevertheless, Prigozhin, in defiance of the Kremlin, spent months criticising the Russian army and openly questioning the Russian strategy and operational plans in the war. At the same time, he claimed that it was time for a change in the Russian military command, which he considered to be at fault on the Ukrainian front. He did not even hesitate to lead an active rebellion for this purpose. 

Will Wagner continue his 'mission' for Russia in Africa?

After his rebellion, Prigozhin was held in exile in Belarus. In the meantime, the future of Wagner in Africa without Prigozhin was being discussed, but no one expected Wagner's political and military position for Russia in Africa to be shelved. This was because, in addition to the continuation of Wagner's mining concessions, the organisation's instrumentalisation of anti-Western propaganda was also important for Moscow. Apart from removing a potential future threat to the Russian regime, Prigozhin's apparent death does not require the Kremlin to change its plans to use Wagner as a Russian apparatus in Africa. For the Russians, the continuation of Wagner's activities, especially in Mali and the Central African Republic, remains important. Lavrov had already given this assurance to his African friends after the uprising, diplomatically declaring that they would continue to stand by them.

In recent weeks, Russia hosted the Russia-Africa Summit in St Petrersburg with the participation of high-level representatives of more than 50 African countries. Africa remains key to Putin's strategy in Ukraine. Despite the West, the Putin administration is seizing every opportunity to prove that it is not isolated, and is trying to find ways to circumvent Western economic sanctions. The BRICS summit in the Republic of South Africa, which Putin is attending via remote connection, fulfils an important function in this respect. In any case, through Wagner, the Kremlin wanted to consolidate its presence in the African countries and protect its commercial and security interests in Africa, with or without Prigozhin. 

The plane crash made Lukashenka confirm that Putin is the only boss

Two months ago, Belarusian leader Alyaksandr Lukashenka assured Prigozhin of his security. During the uprising and its aftermath, Lukashenka skilfully assumed the role of a mediator and positioned himself as an important player in the resolution of tensions within Russia. His propaganda went so far as to claim that he had saved the Russian people. Wednesday's plane crash in Russia's Tver region has significantly damaged Lukashenka's position. Firstly, his image as a skilful mediator has taken a hit.

It showed that Lukashenka's control is limited, that he has only as much room to play as Putin allows him. Now, after Prigozhin's death, it will probably surprise no one that the mercenaries have been forced to leave Belarus. It is also likely that their departure will bring a sense of relief to the Belarusian people. It seems that the Kremlin will dictate the timetable for the departure of the Wagner remnants. I think that these events should be read as a signal that Lukashenka may soon be ignored or allowed to continue to exist as a secondary figure in Belarus.

Conclusion

All in all, the killing of Prigozhin and his deputy Dmitry Utkin aboard an Embraer business jet appears to have been a deliberate act of assassination, most likely engineered by one of Russia's intelligence services on Putin's orders. Whether this is the truth or not, no one can claim this with certainty, but the general consensus is that Putin has eliminated the two leading figures in the rebellion attempt two months ago. It is also claimed that Air Force Commander General Sergei Surovikin, who was not on the business jet, shared a similar fate.

Regardless of whether it was an accident or an assassination, Putin continues to play the leading role on the Kremlin stage, in a play he wrote himself to maintain his power. As a tyrant, he is likely to maintain his power in the short term through murder and fear. History shows that a tyrant like Putin has agents and servants but no real allies or friends. The end of Stalin, whom he takes as an example, stands before him as the best example for his own life.