Recent Developments in Syria, Terrorist Organisations' Plans, and Turkey's Security Perspective: A Geopolitical and Theoretical Analysis

Introduction

Developments in the Syrian war zone since 8 December 2024 and 10 March 2025 have reshaped regional balances. A closer look at the map reveals the presence of the PKK/YPG/PYD/SDG structure in the north, Israel's military manoeuvres in the south, and the weakening of central authority in Damascus. The Republic of Turkey has consistently emphasised the importance of a unitary, integrated Syria that does not include a federation.

Syria's unitary structure is increasingly being questioned using different terminology:

● Federation

● Autonomous administration

● Special administration

● Strengthened local administration

● Decentralised administration

Although expressed in different ways, these concepts all serve the same purpose: the fragmentation of Syria. The frequent use of such terms in the rhetoric of terrorist organisations is part of a broader psychological operation aimed at normalising and legitimising division. Terrorist organisations and their external supporters deliberately use these concepts to make society accept division.

The Structure of the PKK/YPG/SDG and Its Relations with the Damascus Government

The territories controlled by the PKK/YPG/PYD/SDG constitute approximately one-third of Syria. However, this region contains approximately 90% of the country's oil and natural gas reserves and most of its energy production facilities. Critical infrastructure, including water and electricity resources at the Tishrin Dam, has also fallen under the organisation's control.

On 10 March, an agreement was signed between Syrian Interim President Ahmed Shahra and terrorist leader Mazlum Abdi. This agreement is a step towards institutionalisation under the guise of ‘integration’.

An important distinction must be made between participation and integration (merger):

● Participation: Full inclusion in state institutions, leading to the elimination of an independent chain of command.

● Integration: Maintaining an independent military structure, command hierarchy and political identity while coexisting with the state.

Insisting on the second model, the PKK/YPG is preserving both its armed presence and its de facto autonomous administration under the name of ‘North-East Syria’. The agreement symbolically elevated the organisation to the status of an international actor.

Demographic Structure and Pressure on the Turkmen The estimated population of Syria is approximately 23 million. Its distribution is as follows:

● Arabs: ~12 million

● Turkmen: ~5.5 million

● Kurds: ~1.7 million

● Others: Armenians, Syriacs, Druze

Despite being the third largest group numerically, Kurdish groups supported by the US and Israel have been given disproportionate political visibility. Meanwhile, Turkmen and Arabs have been subjected to systematic pressure by the PKK/YPG, leading to mass migration to Turkey. This forced migration is one of the main causes of Turkey's refugee crisis.

Israel's Strategy and the ‘David Corridor’

After 8 December 2024, while Israel intensified its air strikes targeting Damascus, Aleppo and Latakia, it conspicuously avoided areas under PKK/YPG control. This selective strategy, consistent with the Oded Yinon Plan, demonstrates that Israel's primary objective is to secure Syria's oil, natural gas, and water resources.

Israel's broader plan is to construct a corridor stretching from Sweida to the Golan Heights and connecting to areas controlled by the YPG in the north. This route, dubbed the ‘David Corridor,’ would enable Israel to control 85% of the region's water resources and establish dominance over Lebanon and Syria. Security Threats to Turkey

From Turkey's perspective, the most serious threat is the emergence of a permanent ‘terrorist state’ immediately across its southern border. The main risks are as follows:

● The institutionalisation of the ‘terrorist organisation’ controlled by the PKK/YPG.

● The systematic marginalisation and oppression of the Turkmen population.

● Israel's strengthening along the Golan-Sweida axis and the limitation of Turkey's regional influence.

● US efforts to internationalise the ‘integration’ of the PKK/YPG.

Accordingly, Turkey's security requirements necessitate the following:

● Establishing and maintaining a 30 km deep security corridor stretching from Latakia to Qamishli.

● Ensuring the survival and functionality of the Syrian National Army (formerly the Free Syrian Army).

● Establishing joint control over safe zones.

● Sustaining operational presence until the Syrian central government regains sufficient capacity and clearly declaring that authority will ultimately be transferred back to Damascus.

Turkey-Israel Tensions and the Role of the US

Turkey and Israel's objectives in Syria are increasingly at odds. While Israel prefers a weak and fragmented Syria, Turkey advocates for the preservation of a unitary state. Israel is restricting Syria's sovereignty and securing its operational freedom by creating buffer zones in southern Syria, citing the protection of the Druze as justification.

In response, Turkey demands the elimination of SDG/PKK structures and rejects any legitimisation through ‘integration’. Ankara has stated that it is prepared to resort to military operations if necessary, but the presence of US forces complicates this calculation. Washington supports Israel's security concerns while also exploring possible channels for normalisation with Damascus. Although US officials acknowledge that federalism has ‘failed,’ alternative governance models continue to be discussed.

The Jolani Factor and US Realignment

Another dimension that has emerged concerns Abu Mohammad al-Jolani, who was previously linked to Al-Qaeda. Portrayed as a pragmatic actor, Jolani has avoided direct conflict with Israel and has increasingly attracted US interest as a stakeholder in Syria's political future. Some circles in the US Congress have even advocated support for HTS. Washington is attempting to integrate the SDG and HTS into a broader governance framework by easing export restrictions and providing credit.

Theoretical and Geopolitical Perspectives

Geopolitical Theories

● Mackinder's Heartland Theory: Although Syria is not located at the centre of the ‘Heartland,’ it is a gateway to Eurasian energy corridors. Control of Syria indirectly affects access to the Heartland and enhances its strategic value.

● Spykman's Rimland Theory: Syria lies at the heart of the Rimland and controls access to the Eastern Mediterranean. According to Spykman's logic, whoever controls Syria shapes the balance of power in Eurasia.

● Mahan's Sea Power Theory: The struggle over the ports of Latakia and Tartus and Russia's naval presence exemplify Mahan's thesis that maritime access determines global influence.

● Brzezinski's ‘Grand Chessboard’: Syria is a critical piece in the game of controlling Eurasia. The US's reliance on Kurdish groups and Israel's corridor plan fit within this framework.

Theories of International Relations

● Realism: States pursue survival, power and security. Turkey's security corridor, Israel's buffer zones and the US's reliance on local militias are consistent with realistic logic.

● Neorealism (Structural Realism): The anarchic international system forces states to prioritise security. The Turkey-Israel-US triangle in Syria is a direct result of this systemic pressure.

● Constructivism: Competing narratives — ‘integration’, “autonomy”, ‘federation’ — shape legitimacy. The PKK/YPG's presentation of itself as a defender of democracy and Turkey's emphasis on Syria's unity exemplify identity-based conflict.

● Dependency Theory: The US and Israel's efforts to control Syria's energy and water resources reflect a new colonial logic that condemns Syria to dependency.

Turkey's Strategic Options and Year-End Pressure

President Erdoğan and Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan strongly criticised Israel's attacks, stating that the safety of Turkmen and Kurdish civilians in Syria is guaranteed by Turkey.

Ankara's strategy should therefore be as follows:

● Institutionalise a 30 km deep security corridor in northern Syria,

● Establish special mechanisms to protect Turkmen communities,

● Prevent the fragmentation of the Syrian National Army while supporting it,

● To establish regional alliances to counter Israel's influence in Sweida-Golan,

● To make all support given to Damascus contingent upon its commitment to preserving Syria's unitary structure.

The 10 March agreement, planned to be implemented by the end of the year, has accelerated events, intensified Ankara's rhetoric, and brought the possibility of military intervention back to the agenda.

Conclusion

The Syrian theatre is a place where realistic power struggles, constructive identity conflicts and dependency-focused economic control mechanisms converge. Israel's ‘David Corridor’, the US's trust in the SDG and HTS, and Turkey's determination to prevent the establishment of a terrorist entity intersect in Syria's Rimland geography.