Reflections of Russia's Inflated Self-Confidence on Ukraine

Formulas, Acceptances:

Mankind has acquired the habit of developing formulas to explain some rules and situations, especially in scientific fields. Like the famous e=MC2. In fact, we see that this habit continues in many different aspects, even in the military field.

For example, an attacking army should be three times that of a defending army. This is a common pre-acceptance in the military. So if you are going to attack a 250,000-strong Ukrainian army, the number of available soldiers should be 750,000. In asymmetrical wars, on the other hand, it is among the general military acceptances that the number of soldiers of the regular army should increase even more, and that in an irregular warfare order, there should be a 7 to 7 advantage over the warring side. In other words, if the Ukrainian army has adopted an asymmetrical combat understanding, it is expected that the Russian army will use 1.750.000 soldiers against this army.

Force Multiplier Effect:

Of course, the issue is not just about making numerical comparisons. As with everything else, the concepts of efficiency and effectiveness apply to wars. For example, if you are sure that your own troops have 10 times the firepower of the enemy, it may be possible to achieve the effect of 1,000,000 with 100,000. Numerous additional factors such as these are taken into account by the commanders of the warring parties in the nature of the war itself, calculations and planning are made taking into account many factors.

Air superiority, morale superiority, advantages provided by command and control systems, command culture, adequacy of logistics systems, support of reconnaissance, surveillance and intelligence means, etc. Many issues are important in the field of operations. You will be closer to victory in the field in proportion to the superiority of your military abilities, which are not expressed here, compared to the enemy in front of you. Especially since having systems that give you an advantage over the enemy will increase the effectiveness of the available force, such special abilities are defined as 'force multipliers'. For example, if the other party's Air Force does not have refueling aircraft and you do, it may be possible to increase the effectiveness of your existing air force as if you had more fighter aircraft in your air theater.

What the Russia-Ukraine War Tells Us:

The Russia-Ukraine War, which we all follow on television screens and on social media, does not make it very possible to make positive conclusions for the Russians, even if some of the assumptions that I have tried to give in general terms are based on. Russia, the party that started the war, started this operation with extremely optimistic and unrealistic hopes. In a Far Eastern expression, he is immersed in a green horn dream.

Green Horn Dream:

If something can go wrong, it will surely go wrong. Whoever wants to make God laugh, let him make a plan. There are many aphorisms belonging to this and countless other war history. These words have become part of the almost common military culture of all armies. So, are there factors on the field that make the Russians believe in this green horn dream?

The Lebanon War and its Reflections on Iran:

I would like to share an analysis with you. With the "Peace for Galilee" operation in 1982, Lebanon succeeded in demonstrating that it has the potential to resist Israel. But this raw potential needs to be processed. The 1996 Grapes of Wrath operation has fully revealed the existence of a ground that will ensure the continuity of this potential. Meanwhile, it has made the social segregation more evident among the factions in the region.

As it turns out, Iran took the initiative in Lebanon and trained the Hezbollah organization in the region. He equipped Hezbollah's men with various anti-tank missiles and primitive artillery rocket systems. This support has been sustained patiently but steadily, without exaggeration. For this reason, Iran, which has advanced its nuclear program in line with a certain purpose, has kept its place on the agenda with nuclear weapons agreements for the last twenty years as the country under the gun of Israel and partly the USA. Iran has decided to use the Lebanese Hezbollah, which it has been training and equipping for years, to remove Israel's oppression. In 2006, Hezbollah took the first step in Lebanon and drew Israel into a war that would wear them out.

Hezbollah Destroyed Israel's Energy:

This war caused many casualties for both sides and caused Israel to focus all its energies on Lebanon. The Lebanon war has revealed many lessons to be learned for both sides. If we approach the issue from the perspective of Iran, it has been seen that he was able to achieve a remarkable victory with very little effort. Because the energy and time spent by the Israeli side to stop Hezbollah was written as a profit to Iran. Taking the lead according to its opponents, Iran enabled the Israeli and US operation, which was being spoken at that time, to be shelved and saved. In this respect, it has won a critical time against Israel. He made good use of this time and then had the opportunity to make his famous deal with US President Obama.

Iran Gaining Self-Confidence and Making Mistakes Because of It:

But if you read Iran's historical and cultural codes, you will not be late to see the other effects of this victory. The war that Iran won over Hezbollah through the proxy war in Lebanon rekindled its sectarian and sectarian nature and increased their enthusiasm to spread the gains of the Lebanon war beyond the borders. Iran's attempt to influence the countries of the region reflected instability in the entire region, especially in Syria, Oman, Bahrain and Yemen. The path followed and the mistakes made by Iran deserve an in-depth examination. Ice here we will focus on two outputs:

Iran has opened its compasses to such an extent that it cannot lift it. Its economy, and most importantly, its domestic social fabric has suffered deep and hard-to-repair wounds.
In addition to Israel, the policy of influencing the aforementioned Arab countries has transformed the existing historical hostilities into a more rigid and ruthless identity. Many gulf countries have started to take up arms with an open hostility to Iran and to this end, they have accelerated their overt and covert military, political and intelligence activities.

Similarity of Confidence Between Russia and Iran:

In Russia, there was an explosion of "self-confidence" similar to Iran. The Russian Federation, which became rich with natural gas and oil sales, did not strive for the real industrialization of the country, relying on the easy flow of "money" from here. Income from natural resources encouraged Putin to invest in the Russian army. Thus, Russia prioritized dealing with the problems of its neighbors rather than investing in its economy. Having achieved easy victories in Chechnya, Georgia, Crimea, Syria and Libya without encountering any obstacles, the Putin administration found the courage to set its sights on the whole of Ukraine in 2022. Confident in his military power, Putin began to invade the lands of his neighbors in order to revive Tsarist Russia.

Russia's Stuck in the Ukrainian Swamp:

Russia, which has entered into an illusion similar to Iran, has opened its compasses without calculation and control. A prisoner of his hollow self-confidence, Putin continued to take steps that would darken the whole of Russia's world, whether he took Ukraine or not.

Errors Due to Inflated Confidence:

In my opinion, this high and inflated self-confidence similarity between Iran and Russia has prevented the Russians from learning from the mistakes made by Iran. As it turns out, Putin planned the invasion of Ukraine long in advance, for a much greater purpose in his own way. Because of the hammer in his hand, Putin got in the habit of seeing every problem as a nail, causing him to turn a blind eye to the patterns, formulas and maxims that underlie military training.

An Anecdote:

Let me end this article with an anecdote from our own history. Ottoman Sultan II. During the reign of Murat II. A scene after the Kosovo war is mentioned. After this bloody and tough battle, Murat Han, who was walking around the area, turns to his vizier next to him and says:

"O Lala, have you noticed? There is not a single white-haired person among the enemy soldiers lying on the ground."

The exemplary reply of the vizier was not delayed: "My Sultan. If there was only one white-haired among them, would the Serbs ever fall into this situation?"