Retired American Admiral Stavridis's Proposal for a Food Corridor in the Black Sea

Food Security Issue in the Context of the Russia-Ukraine War:

The Russia-Ukraine War, which started on February 24, continues at a pace like a military band, with ebb and flow. The Russians are advancing a little and are close to achieving their goals for the most part. Currently, the war is concentrated in the Donbas region.

While the war of the land elements continues in Donbas and its vicinity, the naval operation is partially calm. However, the Russian Federation does not fail to impose a de facto blockade on Ukrainian ports on the Black Sea coast, which remains a small coastline in Ukraine's hands. Due to this naval blockade, which is also illegal according to Russia's laws of war, evaluations are made that the world is about to face food shortages.

Ukraine supplies a significant portion of the world's wheat (about 7% of global exports), sunflower oil and other critical agricultural products. Russia, which prevents Ukraine's exports by sea, causes food prices to rise and the fear of famine / hunger increases in the world, among other factors.

Ukraine in Global Food Exports:

The two largest producers of world wheat are China and India. With an annual wheat production of 132 million tons, China is the country that exports the most wheat in the world. In this respect, China makes a very important contribution to the global food supply. India ranks second with 98 million tons. However, India recently banned wheat exports from its country on the grounds that its own food security would be at risk. This decision taken by India due to the extreme increase in temperature since 1901; Since the beginning of 2022, the price of wheat has increased by at least 40% in global markets, causing eyes to be turned to Russia and Ukraine. Russia ranks third among the world's largest wheat producing countries with 85 million tons. Ukraine is counted among the important wheat producers with 25 million tons and Turkey with 20 million tons.

Ukraine is the world's largest sunflower oil producer with an annual production of 4.5 million tons. The Russian Federation comes in second with an annual production of 4 million tons. Ukraine and the Russian Federation together produce more than 50% of the world's sunflower oil. The war ironically showed even the Turkish people how 'strategic' sunflower oil is. Even Turkey, which produces in vast sunflower fields in Thrace, suddenly became acquainted with exorbitant sunflower oil prices because Ukraine oil is not available.

Currently, there is information that 22 million tons of food products are waiting for export in Ukraine's Black Sea and Azov Sea ports (which became completely Russian inland sea after the war). We know that 22 Turkish-flagged commercial ships are also stranded in Ukraine.

It is understood that this blockade imposed by Russia on Ukrainian ports will not end in a short time. Because it is said that this war will not end in the near future. Forecasts are shared over the years. In fact, scenarios about the possibility of the war spreading to a wide geography, especially to Eastern European countries, are brought to the agenda. Thus, the Russian blockade is not only illegal under international law, but also puts Middle East and North African countries, which are already unstable hotspots, in danger of famine in the first place. It becomes obvious that the food security of countries dependent on foreign food cannot be avoided if the main producer countries like India turn to policies that prioritize their own food security and impose export restrictions.

However, it is not realistic to consider food security as a threat on a global scale and to make such assessments. However, it is considered that if Ukrainian wheat cannot be supplied to global markets towards the end of 2022, global food security may be endangered and measures to lift the Russian blockade of Ukrainian ports may be on the agenda.

Opening a Food or Agricultural Products Corridor in the Black Sea:

It seems likely that some of the sanctions currently imposed by the Western world on Russia will be lifted, and in return, Russia will allow the use of Ukrainian ports for the export of agricultural products, especially wheat. However, the West is still quite far from this point of consensus. Moreover, the decision of the European Union countries not to buy Russian oil this week; It has been one of the most important indicators that the continuation of the pressure on Russia is considered important and necessary for the West. This means that in the short run, the Western world is not willing to come to an understanding with the Russians. Nobody sees realistically the possibility that Russia may give up the embargo on Ukrainian ports, which is its biggest trump card in this situation.

On the other hand, there is talk about how Ukrainian ports can be reopened, at least for the shipment of agricultural products only. The first suggestion that comes to mind is to create an "agricultural products corridor" that will connect Ukraine to the world's seas through the Turkish Straits. In order to open such a corridor, the Kremlin must first be persuaded. Considering the fact that the Kremlin will not agree to this, "How can the security of merchant ships that will use the corridor passing between Russian warships in the Black Sea be ensured?" The solutions are knotted in the question.

During the Iran-Iraq War, the United States stepped in for the security of oil tankers in the Persian Gulf in the 1980s and hoisted the American flag on Kuwaiti-flagged tankers, allowing them to pass through the Strait of Hormuz under the protection of the American navy as if they were their own tankers. The cruises of the tankers in the Persian Gulf were accompanied by American warships. It is now being discussed on some platforms that this method can also be applied in the Black Sea.

Article by American Retired Admiral Stavridis in the Washington Post:

For example, American Retired Admiral James George Stavridis of Greek origin (who also served as NATO Commander SACEUR between 2009 and 2013) also touched upon this issue in his article published in the Washington Post.

Admiral Stavridis, who was also my commander in 2009-2010, argues that the pressure exerted by the American navy on the Iranians yielded results and that the American will brought results, and that this approach had a significant impact on global geopolitics and energy resources.

Retired Admiral; Russian President Vladimir Putin has stated that the Black Sea fleet, with more than two dozen major warships, is by far the most powerful navy in the region, holding naval control of the Northern Black Sea, and that the Russian navy with 25,000 sailors and about 40 surface warships and seven submarines ( It 'writes' that it is still the strongest navy in the Black Sea (even though Moskva was sunk last April).

He underlines that Turkey, Romania and Bulgaria, NATO members and Black Sea littoral countries, have sufficient naval forces in the Black Sea, but that Ukraine has almost no navy left to withstand the Russian blockade. Citing an example from the American civil war, Stavridis says Putin used a Lincoln-like tactic and claims that Moscow offered negotiations to allow grain shipments in exchange for the lifting of Western sanctions that the United States and its allies would not accept.

Based on the assumption that negotiations with the Russians would not be possible, the retired Admiral talks about some possible issues and offers his own solutions to the problems that may arise in this context:

• Breaking the blockade by escorting merchant ships:

In this case, where will the military ships accompanying the merchant ships come from? This task may be undertaken by NATO, under the auspices of the United Nations, or by a coalition of nations willing to undertake the task. The most likely approach, according to Stavridis, is that Britain and France could possibly join this US-led task force, perhaps with ship support from the Black Sea countries (Turkey, Romania and Bulgaria).

• Clearing mines in the Sea:

The northern Black Sea coast has been mined by both Ukrainians and Russians for their own purposes. NATO has a permanent minesweeper force for precisely this purpose. It recommends using this fleet.

• Creating the merchant ship fleet:

Countries that own commercial vessels using Ukrainian ports are required to act as part of an organization to be held by the International Maritime Organization, headquartered in London. In this context, Stavridis states that it can be solved by the method of carrying the flags of the countries that support the operation, especially the ships of the countries that are afraid of the Russians.

• Informing the Russians, ensuring coordination:

It is to keep the Russians informed about the details of the operation and that the purpose is only a food corridor within the framework of food safety. The retired Admiral thus claims that, even if the Russians are angry, it will be very unlikely that he will eventually attack NATO traffic within his knowledge, navigating in international waters. He says that if the Russians did attack anyway, he would have to face a proportional use of force.

Conclusion:

Stavridis' suggestions are not unknown, but possible issues that may arise during wars or naval blockades in maritime trade.

In order for these proposals to be put into practice, it is necessary to look at certain restrictions, rules and treaties specific to the Black Sea. Especially the Montreux balance is seen as very important in this respect. Turkey has shown many times that it will not be willing to compromise on the 1936 balance.

First of all, it seems almost impossible for NATO to take a joint decision for such a force formation, with consensus in the current circumstances, that all countries can say yes. It can already be said that the alliance, which does not even consider declaring a no-fly zone over Ukraine or directly providing military aid to Ukraine "under the NATO hat", will not risk the possibility of war with the Russians in the Black Sea, just for food security.

However, I consider it possible that a small "coalition of volunteers navy" will be formed in the Black Sea and will serve in the Black Sea in rotation, without breaking the Montreux regime, provided that there is a UN resolution. In order for this multinational navy to be as strong as the Russian navy, Turkey, Romania and Bulgaria must become a part of this multinational power. I don't think it is possible for the Black Sea coastal countries, especially Turkey, to support such a naval task force, which the Russians would regard as 'hostile attitude or hostile intent', without a UN resolution.

Reference:

Stavridis J. (2022). "How to Break Russia’s Blockade of Ukraine’s Black Sea Ports". Analysis. The Washington Post, 30 May, https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/how-to-break-russias-blockade-of-ukraines-black-sea-ports/2022/05/29/2cd240c2-df26-11ec-bc35-a91d0a94923b_story.html