STRASAM Agenda 0002
Membership Process of Sweden and Finland to NATO:
Finland and Sweden; On May 18, 2022, it submitted its official membership applications to NATO. Turkey; He blocked the start of negotiations in Brussels on the NATO memberships of Sweden and Finland. Turkey wanted these two countries to restrict the activities of PKK sympathizers in their territories and to end their arms restrictions on Turkey.
The USA gives full support to the membership of both countries to NATO. Biden stated that during his Asian trip, they started the process of obtaining the approval of the Congress for the membership of these two countries. According to Biden, Finland and Sweden will make NATO stronger. Biden stressed that a strong, one and all NATO is one of the cornerstones of American security.
In the same period, there were contacts between the Prime Ministers of Finland and Sweden and Erdoğan. However, there was no change in Turkey's situation. Erdogan; “We cannot in any way put aside Sweden's current sanctions against us, in particular. At a time when alliance solidarity should be kept at the highest level, the policy of laying ipe flour should be abandoned, and Turkey's rightful expectations, especially support and sanctions in the fight against terrorism, should be met. We would like to see concrete steps rather than open-ended diplomatic statements regarding our national security issues. We believe that an enlargement policy that does not observe basic security sensitivities will do no good for us or NATO.” said.
In this context, Turkey has concrete expectations from the USA and other leading NATO countries rather than Sweden and Finland. Erdogan voiced his messages on various platforms that Turkey would not be willing to enlarge NATO if these expectations were not met. The USA, on the other hand, foresees that the issue will be resolved between the two candidate countries and Turkey first and applies a wait-and-see policy.
Contacts with England in the field of Defense Industry:
Within the last week, first the Turkish Air Force Commander and the President of the Defense Industry and their accompanying delegations visited the UK simultaneously and held bilateral meetings.
The visit of the Air Force Commander was carried out in the framework of a mutual courtesy visit, for the purpose of some ground checking. In 2020, the British Air Force Commander visited Turkey. During the visit of General Hasan Küçükakyüz to Coningsby Air Base (British Eurofighter Typhoon type warplanes are stationed), Turkey's expectation for Turkey to purchase 40 additional F-16 aircraft from the USA and to obtain American permission for the modernization of the existing ones is rising. It has been claimed that Turkey's purchase of 30 Eurofighter (Tranche-1) fighter jets, which will be retired by the Air Force, and even the addition of 80 EF-2000 aircraft to the Turkish Air Force's inventory, together with an additional 50 aircraft, came to the fore. It was claimed that if the planes were purchased, they would be modernized in cooperation with the British at TAI, and even equipped and developed with AESA radars. No official statement has been made on this subject yet, but Turkey's search for a plane is not a secret.
If the EF-2000 Tranche-1 is to be purchased from the UK (the first 30 aircraft), their maintenance will cost much more than the F-16 or even the EF-2000 Tranche-3s, it is not a sustainable aircraft, the cost of upgrading to T3 and Let me state as a footnote that the aftermath should be analyzed well. Currently, T3s offer the highest level of operational capability with its Centurion modernization (P3E standard), Meteor air-to-air missile integration, and multi-role support features including air superiority. In a way, it's on par with its twin brother, the Rafale T4. In addition, Eurofighter aircraft, which use the majority of the American ammunition family, can be a win for Turkey in this sense. T1's, which have problems in terms of weapons, radar and maintenance, may cost more than the lining, and I believe that the modernization process may give Turkey a headache.
According to open sources, there are a total of 238 F-16 fighter jets in the inventory of the Turkish Air Force, including 36 Block 30, 102 Block 40, 71 Block 50 and 29 Block 50+. Turkey, which has traditionally hosted 400 fighter jets, is almost obligatory to include at least 100-150 fighter jets in its inventory in the interim period due to its removal from the F-35 program and the possible delay in the MMU program.
On the other hand, Turkey's request for an F-16 from the USA may be inconclusive due to the pressures of the Greek and Armenian lobbies in the Congress. In addition, the attitude of Greek Prime Minister Kiryakos Mitsotakis to prevent the sale of F-16s to Turkey during his visit to Washington did not go unnoticed.
Regarding his visit to England, the Head of Defense Industry announced that some of the restrictions imposed by the UK on Turkey (13 December 2021 list) were lifted. After Sweden and Finland's applications for membership in NATO, Turkey announced that it would veto the candidacy of these two countries on the grounds of export restrictions imposed on it and support for terrorist organizations. England has taken a positive step in this respect. prof. Dr. İsmail Demir said, “Some of the issues we talked about before, both in the national combat aircraft and its engine, had to be taken by them in order to make progress. We saw the positive approaches about those steps.” used the expression, but no clear information has yet been shared about what kind of cooperation model can develop between the parties at MMU. There is a need to clarify the road map of MMU in the near future and to progress according to the contracts to be made between SSB-TUSAŞ in order to become an aircraft that will meet the requirements of the Air Force. In this context, it is emphasized that it is necessary for TAI and other subcontractor Turkish defense companies to receive technical support from outside and to determine the principles of cooperation between the two countries in this context, and an MMU framework agreement to be made with the UK (including the engine) is important.
Claw-Lock Operation:
Operation Claw Lock, which was launched on the night of April 18, 2022, in order to eliminate terrorist attacks from northern Iraq and to ensure border security, continues. As a result of this operation, which was started mainly in the Zap region, which is the last link of the buffer zone that Turkey is forming in the north of Iraq; It is aimed to make the Iraq-Turkey border safer after the Metina and Avaşin-Basyan regions are taken under control.
Claw operations are performed as a series. Operation Claw-1, which was carried out in the Hakurk region between 28 May-12 July 2019, was expanded to include Zaho and Barzan regions as Claw-2 as of 13 July 2019. After Hakurk was completely taken under control, the Claw-3 operation was launched in the Sinat-Haftanin region in September of the same year. On June 15, 2020, a simultaneous Claw-Eagle operation was carried out in the Sincar, Mahmur, Zap, Haftanin, Avaşin, Kandil, Darabi, Karacok Mountain regions. On 17 June 2020, the focus was on the south of the week and the ground-based Operation Claw-Tiger was launched. On February 10, 2021, Claw-Eagle 2 was launched in the Gara region. On April 24, 2021, Pençe-Lightning and Pençe-Şimşek operations covering the Metina and Avaşin-Basyan regions began to be carried out. As a result of the Claw series operations carried out to end the PKK where it started; It is mentioned in various sources that the Turkish army has entered Iraq 40 kilometers from various points and has established more than 30 bases. Therefore, the goal of creating a buffer zone in northern Iraq in "cooperation" with the Iraqi Army and Peshmerga and preventing the PKK's border crossings has almost been accomplished. It's time to form a similar line against the YPG in northern Syria.
Regarding this issue, Erdogan said, “30 km along our southern borders. Our operations will continue with the aim of creating a deep safe zone. As soon as the TSK completes its intelligence and security preparations, these operations will begin.” made a statement. It is expected that the issue will be discussed in the National Security Council to convene on May 26 and a decision on cross-border operation will be taken. Turkish soldiers can enter the regions of Ayn al-Arab, Derbesiye, Amuda, Qamishli and Malikiye. Turkish army; With the Euphrates Shield, Olive Branch and Peace Spring Operations carried out in 2016, 2018 and 2019, it created buffer zones with a depth of 30 kilometers in northern Syria.
Russia-Ukraine War:
The Russian army, which broke the resistance of the Azov Battalion in Mariupol in the Russian-Ukrainian War, which took three months, captured the entire city. After the fall of this critical city, the Russians united the Crimea-Donbas line; It continues its attacks in the direction of destroying the cities of Luhansk, Severodonetsk, Lyschansk and Lyman in the eastern border region of Ukraine with its high firepower, similar to what it did in Aleppo in Syria. Russian media said that Russian forces now control 95 percent of Luhansk.
Meanwhile, President of Ukraine Zelensky, speaking at the World Economic Forum held in Davos, Switzerland, urged global business circles to stand by the sanctions against Russia and contribute to the punishment of this country. Zelensky said a "bloody" war is still going on, but he also believes diplomacy is the only way to end the conflict decisively.
In a way, the USA, which favors the continuation of the war and acts with the desire to punish the Russians, allocated $ 40 billion last week to support the Ukrainians. In this context, the American administration delivered the M777 howitzer to the Ukrainian army. There are evaluations that there will be a significant increase in the firepower of the Ukrainian artillery with the arrival of the M777s.
On the other hand, there has been an increase in the comments made in the Western world regarding Putin's health problems. Sir Richard Dearlove, one of the former chiefs of the British Intelligence Agency MI6, stated that the probability of Putin's death in 2023 due to a health problem has increased.
China-US Tension in the Context of Taiwan:
Biden said in a QUAD meeting with the leaders of Australia, Japan and India in Japan that the United States would defend Taiwan if there was an attempt to invade China. Biden stated that the USA has a commitment to Taiwan and the countries of the region in this direction. On top of that, China; He declared that he would not compromise on the "One China" policy and defending his national interests in Taiwan. China has not stopped claiming Taiwan as part of its territory, even though they have been ruled separately since 1949. The fear that China, which has increased its military expenditures in recent years and allocates approximately 250 billion dollars annually to modernize its army, will annex Taiwan at the first opportunity has become the fearful dream of the countries in the region around the South China Sea. Meanwhile, the United States continues to support Taiwan's independence by providing state-of-the-art weapons and military training. It is evaluated that if China invades Taiwan, it can easily access the American military bases in Guam and Hawaii and force the American hegemony in the Indo-Pacific region.
In reaction to Biden's statements, Wang, a spokesman for the Chinese Foreign Ministry, said, "No one should underestimate the determination, determination and strong ability of the Chinese people to defend their national sovereignty and territorial integrity." said. Thereupon, the White House felt the need to make a statement that "there is no change in the US policy on Taiwan". However, with Biden's statement, it came to mind that the US left its "strategic uncertainty" policy on Taiwan and conducted a ground survey with the countries of the region to start a formation against China. Thus, the visit to Japan was used to launch the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework for Prosperity (IPEF), a US-led initiative involving 12 countries in the region aimed at countering China. The IPEF structure is envisioned to be used in the region to strengthen ties through common standards across a range of areas, including green energy, infrastructure and digital commerce and supply chain flexibility.
