The latest situation and measures to be taken in the fight against the PKK terrorist organization

The PKK Terrorist Organization has been one of the most important problems of the Republic of Turkey since 1984, when it carried out its first attacks. For this reason, the state has tried to neutralize the terrorist organization by using all its means. However, despite the thousands of terrorists neutralized by many operations over the years and the recent weakening of the organization's mobility and action capability by taking advantage of technological advantages, the terrorist threat has not been completely eliminated. It is considered that this is due to the lack of attention given to the fight against the causes of terrorism[1], which we tried to explain in our previous article. This erroneous approach causes the center of gravity of the struggle to be determined incorrectly.

Let's try to explain why the center of gravity of the long struggle with the PKK Terrorist Organization was incorrectly determined. In the fight against the PKK, the armed force of the organization was generally seen as the center of gravity, and most of the efforts in the fight against terrorism were concentrated on the struggle to eliminate this armed force. This struggle has been successful.

When the successes achieved in the operations carried out so far are compared with the results obtained by the countries struggling with similar problems statistically, it is stated by the authorities that the success above world standards has been achieved in the fight against the PKK in the military field. However, it is not necessary to look at the explanations of the competent authorities to understand this. It is sufficient to compare the military operations carried out in the fight against the PKK with the military operations carried out by a superpower like the USA in Iraq and Afghanistan.

Despite the heavy losses and the billions of dollars it has spent, the USA could not completely break the resistance that emerged against the occupation after the armed intervention against Iraq, which it launched to the world with the slogan of "War on Terror" and had to leave Iraq. The same situation was experienced in the fight against the Taliban in Afghanistan, and as soon as the US army began to leave the country, Afghanistan quickly fell back into the hands of the Taliban.

The Turkish army and security forces, on the other hand, have dealt major blows to the terrorist organization with the operations they have been carrying out with determination for years and have made the action capacity of the organization very limited. The amount of terrorists neutralized in these operations is incomparably greater than the casualties. In other words, it is possible to say that the fight against terrorism has been largely successful in terms of military operations. However, this success did not ensure the destruction of the PKK Terrorist Organization. Because the successes achieved in the fight against terrorists have not been reflected in the fight against terrorism at the same rate. On the contrary, the PKK, which regressed in the military field, succeeded in increasing its effectiveness in other fields.

For example, there is a political party in the Grand National Assembly of Turkey that acts as the political representative of the PKK, and although this party was closed periodically, it managed to enter the parliament in almost every election by changing its name. In other words, this party has found a social base. On the other hand, the PKK has also organized in the international arena with the associations it has established, has established some organizations in almost every country, and the work of these organizations can find supporters even in the parliaments of democratic countries such as England.

In addition, after Iran and Iraq, the terrorist organization, whose armed power in the country has decreased and its action capacity has become limited, has also established a new organization with a different name in Syria. This organization has gained strength by taking advantage of the favorable environment created by the Syrian civil war. Thus, although the number of armed terrorists in Turkey has decreased by hundreds, when terrorists abroad are also taken into account (albeit with different names such as PYD, etc.), the number of PKK's armed elements has reached the highest figures in its history.

Moreover, the PYD established in Syria and its armed force YPG (It is stated by the sources of the organization that they have more than 60 thousand armed personnel and this number is planned to be increased to 100,000.)[2], which now implements rural-based guerrilla tactics with the support of some countries such as the USA. It has evolved from a terrorist organization to a regular force with political and administrative management organizations that take control of a sizable region. Therefore, the terrorist organization, which has shrunk considerably inside the country, has grown too much with its power abroad and has become a greater threat than before.

The political and military organization in Syria, which creates this threat, has also gained the support of many countries in the international arena. The most important thing was their official recognition. Many countries that recognize the PKK as a terrorist organization do not recognize the organization that this organization established in Syria under a different name and its military wing as a terrorist organization. The USA is one of these countries.

In fact, the reason for the growth of the threat is this situation rather than the large number of armed terrorists. Since the first day the PKK was founded, although it has always tried to be officially recognized both by the governments of Turkey and in the international arena. Because recognition will elevate it from a terrorist organization to a legal political organization. As soon as it succeeds in this, it will gain the right to sit at the table before Turkey as a legal organization.

Although the PKK came very close to this goal at the time of the government's initiative policy, it could not achieve this goal when the initiative policy was shelved due to the events that took place later on. Moreover, during the opening process, the residential areas that it settled and took under control with all its might were dismantled and disposed of with trench operations.

Despite this great failure at home, the PKK's achievement of this recognition in Syria under another name is perhaps the greatest success it has achieved since its establishment. The PKK is no longer just our domestic problem and has become an internationally recognized actor in Syria. This situation has taken our fight against the PKK Terrorist Organization to a new level. Because of the current situation in Syria, it is not possible for us to carry out military operations against the terrorist organization in our own lands and in Iraq, whenever and however we want, as we have done for a long time.

In Syria, we are facing not only the PYD (PKK), but also many states from the Assad regime to Russia, America and England, and many armed organizations supported by these states. Therefore, the balance of power and political calculations have become highly diversified and complicated. This situation has made the fight against the PKK Terrorist Organization even more difficult and inextricable.

This situation contradicts the claims that the PKK has been defeated militarily and is approaching the point of extinction, as is frequently expressed today. Because, although their number in our country is as small as 300-500, there are more than 60 thousand armed terrorists in Syria. These armed terrorists just beyond our borders pose a greater threat than terrorists at home, as they are protected against our direct operations.

Moreover, forcing people who do not support it (such as Arabs, Turkmen and even Kurds who do not support the PYD) to migrate to Turkey, the PYD has also succeeded in establishing a more homogeneous population in the region it controls, increasing its own dominance. This is the reason why the political party, which is seen as an extension of the PKK in Turkey, opposes the calls for the return of Syrian refugees to their countries. Because if the immigrants return, the population supporting the organization in the region controlled by the PYD will become a minority.

The basis for the emergence of this new stage is the selection of the PKK's armed elements as the center of gravity of the organization and the execution of the years-long struggle with a strategy aimed at destroying this center of gravity. Since the center of gravity was chosen incorrectly, the tactics and strategies applied could not achieve the desired result, no matter how accurately they were chosen and applied.

So, what is the correct center of gravity of the PKK Terrorist Organization? The PKK can be defeated militarily, but it still maintains its existence and can increase its power through various maneuvers. Because the vacuum of the neutralized terrorists can be filled again in a short time. In other words, the PKK's terrorist recruitment mechanisms are its center of gravity. For this reason, the first thing to do is to render this mechanism inoperative. The most important method to render this mechanism inoperative is to fight the causes of terrorism.

In order to combat the causes of terrorism, new policies, strategies and tactics should be determined by working on the segments of society that feed the terrorist organization rather than the armed elements of the terrorist organization. These; political, geographical, social, economic, demographic, education, etc. It should be implemented with a counter-terrorism plan that has many dimensions. However, only the people living within the borders of Turkey should not be taken as a basis as the segments of society that feed the organization.

As it is known, the PKK Terrorist Organization is organized in many countries. However, the largest participation and support outside of Turkey comes from some regions within the borders of Iran, Iraq and Syria. For this reason, events beyond our borders should also be followed carefully, especially developments in Syria should not be overlooked. In other words, the plans to be made should also include PKK elements in other countries, especially in Syria.

It is relatively easy to take these measures in Turkey, but it does not seem so easy to do in other countries, especially in Syria. Still, it is not right to decide on appearance. Perhaps it would be easier to reduce the number of PYD/PKK militants in Syria. It should not be forgotten that the PYD needs a large number of armed people in order to keep the area it controls in Syria today. Otherwise, it will not be able to survive against other armed organizations. 

It is also stated in the statements made to the press organs from sources close to the PYD that the armed force is planned to be increased to 100,000. Although this may seem like the PYD's strength, it is also its greatest weakness.

Let's try to explain why. It is necessary to give 100,000 weapons to 100,000 people. These armed people need large quantities of ammunition, equipment, radios, vehicles, food, and most importantly, money. Considering the allegations that an armed militant was paid $120, the PYD has to pay $12 million each month for the salaries of armed personnel alone. Considering the issues such as weapons, vehicles and equipment, it is obvious that the PYD needs a large amount of money to maintain its military power. When we add the money required for the civil bureaucracy, the magnitude of the need is better understood.

If the PYD's income sources are reduced and trade with other countries, especially Turkey, is prevented illegally or through official means from the region it controls, it will not be possible to find this much money and to procure the necessary weapons, vehicles and equipment for so many people.[3] This situation will lead to the disintegration of the armed force and the collapse of the administrative structure that is being tried to be established.

For this reason, any measure that erodes the strength of the opponent without the need to engage in an armed struggle should be used more and more decisively in the fight. The same is true for the elements of the PKK Terrorist Organization in Turkey. One of the most important measures to be taken to erode the power of the PYD/PKK, that is to reduce their participation and force terrorists to leave the organization, is to prevent the flow of money and supply activities. Because, as a confessor who was once the radio operator of Murat Karayılan and other high-level terrorists said; “The organization lives on logistics. If the logistics ends, the organization ends too.”

It seems unlikely that these measures will be taken by Turkey alone due to the conjuncture in the region. For this reason, it is imperative to develop relations and cooperate with the administrations and public sectors of neighboring states for both military operations and preventive measures such as cutting income sources. Because multilateral and absolute isolation is the only way to destroy the organization. It should not be forgotten that there is no castle in history that does not fall when it is completely cut off from the outside world by using enough force and besieged for long enough.

On the other hand, Syrian immigrants in our country should be sent back to their countries by finding suitable solutions. Turkey should even build new houses on Syrian territory for these, if necessary. Because the return of these immigrants to their countries is necessary not only to get rid of the problems caused by the immigrants in our country, but also to neutralize the policies implemented by the PYD to ensure ethnic purity.

As a result; In the fight against the PKK Terrorist Organization, in addition to the armed struggle, efforts should be made to cut off the flow of money and material through the recruitment of personnel to the organization. For this purpose, the strategy to be implemented in the fight against terrorism should be built on three pillars (armed struggle, preventing the supply of personnel, preventing the flow of money and supplies) together with other efforts to eliminate the causes of the problem. Even neglecting one of these will cause the system to collapse and the struggle to fail.

Footnotes

[1] Although from time to time, decision-making authorities have developed discourses and policies in this direction, but since they incorrectly determined the target of the fight against terrorism, these discourses and policies strengthened the terrorist organization rather than neutralized it. Solving the problem by aligning with the target terrorist organization cannot be a solution. In fact, the policies implemented in the opening process have clearly shown that this is the case. When negotiating with terrorists was preferred instead of fighting terrorism, the PKK Terrorist Organization, which was active only in rural areas until then, settled in residential areas as well. For this reason, the goal should not be to align with the Terrorist Organization and serve its purpose, but to eliminate it.

[2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/YPG.

[3] For this purpose, countries that provide weapons, equipment and money to the PYD should also be negotiated and this support should be cut through diplomatic methods.