The Return of Geopolitics; What Turkey Wants From Sweden and Finland in NATO Expansion to Baltic Geopolitics
Russia militarly focusing on Sweden because of the fact that the Baltic Sea Region which is one of the most developed transnational regions. It comprises the coastal areas of Russia, Germany, and Poland and the entire territories of Sweden, Denmark, Finland, Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia.
Located in Scandinavia the Kingdom of Sweeden is supposed as fifth largest country in Europe however 70 percent of Swedish Geography is inhospitable particularly the Norrland Region emerging such an interesting area covered by forests and mountains. It is traversed by rivers which is stretching from the mountains to the Gulf of Bothnia and most important aspect is that when going to the further up to north along with inland part of Swedish Geography having more inaccesible terrain which is known as “Norrland Region” are situated by shore and relay on maritime trade activities for their basic incomes when its is going down to Southern Area which is the known as “Regions of Svealand” hosting the capital Stockholm. “Rivers of Svealand” playing a decisive role in the development of maritime culture and well known as home of Maritime Trade Center of Sweeden. Meanwhile the Gotaland Region which covers the southern tip of the country has a temperate climate condition and it is known as country’s agricultural industries.
The belth stretching from Guttenberg to the Capital city Stockholm all the way to Malmo establishing the forms of the “Hearthland of Sweeden” in which most of population around 10 million people consantrated to lives and works in that area. With regard to economical aspect, the essential economic performance of a country is reflected by the Gross Domestic Product that is indicating the total goods and services being sold in trade market by which Sweeden Economy enjoys some of the highest per capita Gross Domestic Products inside Europe. Worldwide Gross Domestic Product data in year of 2020 was all about 10.915 US Dollar per capita. In contrast, the GDP in Sweden reached to about 52.274 US Dollars per inhabitant. Overall, the Gross Domestic Product in Sweden in 2020 increased from 533.88 billion US Dollar to 541.22 billion US Dollar.
|
Economic Performance 2020 |
Sweden Total |
Sweden Per Capita |
EU Total |
EU Per Capita |
|
GDP |
541.22 bn USD |
52,274.41 USD |
15,291.93tn USD |
29,692.11 USD |
The country has some of the highest income tax rates in the world which allows the Swedish Goverment to sustain a generous welfare program that distributes wealth eqaully across the society. Because of its geographical position and its close proximity to European Union, Sweden has very strong commercial activity with its neighbords therefore export of goods services account for around 45 percent of National GDP that rendering Sweden as largest trading partner of European Countries. It is often identified as the ideal combination of capitalism and socialism due to fact that the country’s high standart of living, education and socialized healthcare system. However, Political Dimension of Swedish Govermantal System should be identified clearly. The kingdom of Sweden is a Nordic and Scandinavian country located in Northern Europe. While many people use the two terms interchangeably but they are not actually same. The Scandinavian countries are generally considered to be Sweden and its immediate neighbors those are Denmark and Norway. However the phrase “Nordic Countries” usually also includes Finland, Iceland, Greenland, the Faroe Islands and the Aland Islands. Compared to the European Union, the “Country of Sweden” is coming out as the third largest member of the EU at nearly 175,000 square miles. Like other “Nordic Countries”, Sweden is still technically a monarchy although their royal family holds no real power and monarchy is being constrained by the parliament in which constitution says the country shall have a king and queen with specific rules of sucession including a requirement that they shall have “Protestant Faith”.
The Swedish–Norwegian region spans the northernmost section of the 1630 km long Swedish–Norwegian border. It includes the Swedish towns and municipalities of Gällivare and Kiruna and Rough mountainous terrain separates the Norwegian and Swedish parts from each other. The only cross-border connections are a road and a railway and Mining activity was emerged as the principal economic activity along with the Iron trade which is extracted from Swedish side and transported across the border to deep-sea port of Narvik, from where it is shipped to the world market. Norwegian Capital Oslo has never presented a risk to the interest of Stockholm. But on the other hand Denmark located at the “Skagerrak Strait” and preventing Sweden from expanding into the North Sea.
“Denmark located at the Skagerrak Strait” preventing Sweden from expanding into the Northern Sea which pave the way for Sweden to expand eastern side through establishing complex relations with Germany, Poland and Baltic Nations namely those are Estonia, Latvia Lithuania particularly Finland which was part of Swedish Empire. Finland has been part of the Sweden Kingdom for almost 700 years and became part of the Russian Empire after the Finnish War in 1809. As a part of Sweden, Finland was representing the christian culture together with communal and economic order of Western Europe therefore the market economy, constitutional governments and legalistic principles were founded on Finland territory.Eversince Finnish War break out in 1809 , the “Geopolitics of Swedeen” has mainly developed around “Perception of Russian Security Threat”. At this point, Swedish decision makers perceived about Finland country as important buffer zone or threshold area providing critical distance between Moscow and Stockholm however it should be kept in mind that if Russia and Sweden start arming clashes then most of the fighting would take place in Finland territory and that security paradox pave the way for Helsinki the capital of Finland and Stockholm to formulate mutual defense policy at this point it should be noted that any security alliance with Finland is perceived as important external relationship by Swedish Decision Makers. Sweden's neutrality policy had originated largely as a result of Sweden's involvement in the Napoleonic Wars as a result of that most portion of the Sweden country's territory including Finland territory was losting to Russian Empire . From this point of view, Finland remained a part of Russia until it gained independence in 1917. Since the time of the Napoleonic Wars, neither Sweden has initiated any direct armed conflict nor any outside power contemplated to invade “Swedish Hearthland”. However it should be noted that even in the contemporary time in accordance to Swedish Decision Makers, Finland is still representing the “ Swedish Baltic Empire” and from geopolitical point of view importance of Finland territory for Sweden is reminiscing importance of Austria territory for German Empire, importance of Ukraine territory for Russian Empire, importance of Taiwan for Chinese Empire and finally importance of Middle East for Turkish Ottoman Empire
Prussia's dominance had contined forty years peacefully in the Baltic region, and by the outbreak of World War I, “Neutrality Position of Sweden” still have been protected. Although feelings of cultural and scientific kinship with the German Empire were strong in Sweden on the other hand mercantile and personal ties with Britain and France were strong as well. The Swedish neutrality during World War II has been much debated and later contested. Despite the British naval blockade of Nazi Germany, and the having neutral state position of the Swedish Government however Sweden exported iron ore to supply Nazi Germany's war industry via the Norwegian port of Narvik. Sweden remianed neutral state during Cold War basically because of the fact that Sweden poses no threat to two block. Nowadays Russia formulating to pressure policy on Sweden Goverment by violating Sweden’s airspace intruded its waters and even simulated a nuclear attack on the country due to fact that Russia is only testing Sweden’s military capabilities behind the scene.
Russia militarly focusing on Sweden because of the fact that the Baltic Sea Region which is one of the most developed transnational regions. It comprises the coastal areas of Russia, Germany, and Poland and the entire territories of Sweden, Denmark, Finland, Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia. Baltic Sea is playing important role in the commercial activity of nations surrounding it eventhouh this famous strategic sea is not behaving equally well to any actor given the fact that many sea ports and and the “Gulf of Finland” are known as frozen zone during the winter period. As long as wealthy and prosperity criteria are depending on the one who will be able to controlling many sea ports then many actors in region will acquire opportunity of access point to Baltic Sea that triggering historical rivalry such as Sweden have established empire by dominating Baltic Regions in 17 th Century but Sweden lost its superior status after the Napoleonic Wars including the traumatic loss of Finland territory to Russia Empire therefore Sweden supposed “neutral country ” in international arena. Without Finland territory, Sweden could not establish “Baltic Empire”. Furthermore from geopolitical point of view importance of Finland territory for the Sweden is reminiscing importance of Austria territory for German Empire, importance of Ukraine territory for Russian Empire, importance of Taiwan for Chinese Empire and finally importance of Middle East for Turkish Ottoman Empire.
After more than a century living in the Russian Empire, Finland officially declared independence in 1917. Almost 20 years later, with most countries involved in World War II, the Soviet Union saw the opportunity to invade “Finland Territory”. The cruel campaign became known as the “Winter War”. Finland managed to withstand Russia’s attack and avoid a full-scale invasion until a treaty was signed in 1940. During the Cold War, the country also adapted its policies and remained neutral status to further appease its Soviet neighbour, a phenomenon that was described with the term “Finlandisation”. This was enabled by the Agreement of Friendship, Cooperation and Mutual Assistance (FCMA) signed in 1948 by Finland and the Soviet Union, which became the main instrument in Finland-Soviet relations from 1948 to 1992. To honour the treaty and not provoke the Soviet Union, Finland declined funding from the American Marshall Plan. It is widely known that this agreement was signed under pressure from the Soviet Union, but it granted Finland enough freedom to continue its independence.
Finland is getting ready to join NATO and that is going to create a problem for Russia. Western portion of the “Russian Kola Peninsula” is deployed with nuclear weapons and crucial military facilities in which many important part of Russia’s strategic bombers are located here. However all that firepower deterrence and power projection is held in place by a single parallel road and rail corridor which runs for about 700 kilometers before its forks. If Finland joins NATO then it will transform the security climate in “Northern Europe along with Baltic Geopolitics”.
The Corridor running through the Kola Peninsula will transform in strategic choke point. If NATO supported suprise and sudden attack against Russia that could derail transportation chains between Moscow and Murmansk as it has been seen on the case of Ukraine that many private companies of military specialist will sabotage the infrastructure and will damage Russian nuclear capabilities. From Russian point of view, there is no defense against this vulnerability due to fact that geography does not allow it because Kola Peninsula is brimming with sharp forests which is perfect hunting ground for special forces. Finland joining NATO will essentially damage Russian nuclear readiness posture which will turn Baltic Sea into a NATO dominated lake therefore Moscow’s power projection will be broken down. It is very interesting that before the Russo-Ukrainian War, many decision makers were talking about “Finlandization of Ukraine” but now they are calling for the “Ukrainization of Finland”. At this point Finland’s NATO membership bid actually can be seen as an attempt to refute Russian argument of “Finlandization Process” and this attempt was elegantly orchestrated by Atlanticist School of NATO particularly United Kingdom and United States. As United States trying to put the rope on the neck of Russia on the other hand United Kingdom creating balance of power game on Baltic Geopolitics as converging approach between Atlanticist and Eurocentric Schools by intimidating Moscow. It is well known by Russia that in the history whenever Atlanticist and Eurocentric approaches were united then they will make Russia a de facto target and Russia is well aware of the fact that Eurocentric Approach of Nazi Germany has inflicted on Soviet Army during the Second World War and Atlanticist Structure of NATO having victory on Soviet Union with reagard to Cold War Period. Sweden and Finland as being member of European Union they want to join NATO and this case was different than membership process of other Eastern European Countries that those eastern countries like Romania, Poland, Czech Republic and Hungary have been firstly joined NATO afterthat they joined European Union but in the Sweden and Finland case both countries already having membership to European Union which means that they already constracted strong bond inside Eurocentric School rather than coperation with Atlanticist structure. Second issue is that Helsinki a capital of Finland has symbolic meaning on the way of establishing peace between Soviet Union and European countries for setting up European Security Architecture in which The Helsinki Final Act, also known as Helsinki Accords was the document have been signed at the closing meeting in Helsinki of Finland on August 1975. “ Detente Policy emanting from Helsinki Final Act” was historic milestone toward ending Cold War. Therefore if looking from this perspective, with Finland’s bid to NATO membership, United Kingdom of course trying to give message to break down “Detente Policy of European Security Architecture” against Russia. Turkey as NATO member has blocked discussions on Finland and Sweden's accession NATO hours after the countries officially launched their bids to join the alliance, In accordance to Turkish Decision Makers view’s, converging policies between Atlanticist and Eurocentric Structure will be detrimental for Turkish Domestic Policy with regard to civil army relations. It should be noted that when Soviet Union occupied Afghanistan in year of 1979 then both Atlanticist and Eurocentrist convergend policies pave the way for 1980 coup d'état in Turkey therefore Greece have been able to returned military wing of NATO. In this regard Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan mande statement that “ We are following developments concerning Sweden and Finland carefully, but we are not of a favorable opinion, The previous administrations of NATO made a mistake regarding Greece, and you know the attitude that Greece has toward Turkey. We do not want to make a second mistake”. On this point, it can be inferred that Turkish Decision Makers reading geopolitical developments very well and Turkey along with United Kingdom both they playing chessboard in solidarity manner against Russia under the guidance of Geopolitical Game Theories on Baltic Region.
The Finnsih Russian relationship is by products of history in 1809 when Finland was carved out of conquered Swedish territory by the Russian Empire. Russian ruling elites transformed territory to repression together with assimilation. After Russian Revolution of 1917 with independence of Finland, Helsinki sustained stable relations with Soviet Russia in which Joseph Stalin who was realist geopolitical thinker perceived Finland as merely a buffer zone that protected imperial Russia. After Joseph Stalin consolidating his power in the late 1930s, Stalin sought take it back that what followed were three distinct armed conflicts which shaped Finland to its core. The first was the winter war of late 1939 under the cover of a Nazi- Soviet non-aggression pact, Stalin invaded Finland but forced to accept limited territorial gains in excahange for peace with Helsinki. Later when Nazi Germany invaded Soviet Russia in 1941 Finland joined the attack recovering its territories and facilitating the Siege of Leningrad.
Eventually thought the tide turned against Berlin and Helsinki then Moscow agreed to peace for the condition that Finland will must start“denazification process on its territory”. As a result of that Finland expelled Germany in what become known as the “1944 Lapland War”. However Cold War Period achieved a suprisingly stable peace since “1948 Finland-Soviet Treaty” ensured a Militarily Neutral Finland givinig opportunity to Russia for buffer zone condition while Helsinki preserved its prosperity and welfare system of social state architecture this process become known as “ Finlandization”. This policy continued even after Soviet Union collapsed in 1991 unlike the Baltic States, Helsinki refused NATO membership instead pursuing constrained integration by joining alliance’s partnership for peace program. In the wake of the Russia-Georgia War in 2008, Finland’s Prime Minister even stated that “the lesson for the Helsinki should seek closer ties with Moscow.” On the other hand cooperation between Finland and NATO deepened since then all finnish military procurements have met NATO standarts ensuring the interoperability of forces. The critical difference is that Finland is not protected by article 5 meaning there is no obligation for NATO members to come Finland’s aid.
Russian President Vladimir Putin adressed NATO expension at the Collective Security Treaty Organization Summit he said that “ the movement of troops or weapons into new NATO states would cause Russia to react. Russia has no problem with those states it hasn’t. Expansion by addition of those countries poses no direct threat for us but expansion of military infrastructure into this territory would certainly provoke our response” At this point, Putin has a secret plan for this new situation. Should Finland and Sweden join NATO, Russia would receive it as a threat and will respond by building up its military capabilities in the Baltic Sea as targetting Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania in which Russia will deploy nuclear weapons and hypersonic missiles, Even NATO would promise that there is no any military base will be settled in Finland, Russian Policymakers having fresh mind that in the past, US secretary of state James A. Baker made to former Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev during a meeting on February 9, 1990 the two men agreed that NATO would not extend past the territory of East Germany however NATO expanded to former Soviet territories therefore the narrative of Western betrayal has featured prominently in Moscow's rhetoric for decades.
Should Finland’s membership be approved it would double the length of NATO’s border with Russia. Finland’s and Sweden’s membership in NATO is not a done deal because any decision for enlargement requires the approval of all 30 members of the alliance and their parliaments on the other hand, Finland and Sweden having international “neutral state positions” therefore in accordance to international law, they must take approval from Russian consent before leaving of “neutral state posture”. At this point Russian decision makers particularly President Putin would contemplating and planning to declare war due to fact that “casus belli-reason to go war” which have been agreed clause of international law which is giving the right Russia to declare full scale war. In this vein, Turkish decision to block Finland and Sweden membership bid is also complies with international law that NATO decision taking system working with “unanimously vote condition” Therefore, architecture of the international security system have been protected by replacing Russian casus belli-reason to go war clause with Turkish decision to blocking with unanimously vote condition of NATO. It is very interesting that United Kingdom and United States didn’t ask Russian opinion but instead they implemented rules of international law by assistance of Turkey in concept of game theories. if looking from this perspective, with regard to Finland and Sweden bids to NATO membership, United Kingdom automatically trying to give message to break down “Detente Policy of the Helsinki Final Act” against Russia. United States also played game to intimidate Russia with threat of uniting Altlanticist and Eurocentric structure of Europe, on this point Turkey also played “Zero Sum Game” to protecting its own national security with regard to civil army coherence inside Turkish domestic policy by balancing Russia and Israel. It should be noted that when Soviet Union occupied Afghanistan in year of 1979 then both Atlanticist and Eurocentrist convergend policies pave the way for 1980 coup d'état in Turkey therefore Greece have been able to returned military wing of NATO. Another case was that when Atlanticist and Eurocentric poles are together united while Russia intervening Syria civil war in 2015, Turkish Goverment established great cooperation with State of Israel then july 15 military coup succesfully failed. Turkey also blocked Sweden membership NATO for the security of Israel given the fact that Swedish Government was the first Western European Country officially recognized the State of Palestine. After Sweden has recognized Palestine as a state, the Israeli Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman is spoke of a “miserable decision, Sweden will needs to understand that the relations in the Middle East are more complicated than Ikea furniture”. It is very important to note that, in May 2022, unfortunately, Al jezeera journalist Shireen Abu Akleh who has palestinian identity and belonging to christian faith she terribly lost her13 life and by this event Israeli Authority carefully started to follow statements coming from European Union and particularly from Sweden as litmus test. It should be considered that Israel opened a permanent mission to NATO’s Brussels headquarters The move have been comes as NATO member Turkey agreed to end its objection to closer links to the Jewish state. Under this conditions, United States President Joe Biden planned to visit Jerusalem in the end of June 2022 in order to discuss about Balitc Geopolitics with Israeli Decision Makers. Given the fact that President Biden visits time is unclear because Israeli Goverment is under coalition crisis in domestic policy but it is obvious that if Netenyahu’s party Likud would have been power in Israel, Sweden and Finland would not be taken under NATO’s article 5 protection.
Game theory is the analysis of how decision makers interact in decision making to take into account reactions and choices of the other decision makers. International conflict and other phenomena in international relations occur as a result of decisions made by people. These people may be leaders of states, members of the legislature or military, members of nongovernmental organizations. Game theory is a theoretical framework for conceiving social situations among competing players. In some respects, game theory is the science of strategy, or at least the optimal decision-making of independent and competing actors in a strategic setting. It is a mathematical representation of a situation in which each participant's gain or loss of utility is exactly balanced by the losses or gains of the utility of the other participants, In a zero sum game, gains for one person(s) causes losses for another person(s) in an identical amount. The net change for everyone involved is zero and no wealth is created or destroyed during the transaction. At this point, Turkish President Erdogan voiced objection to the two Scandinavian countries’ expected NATO membership bids, saying that they are “like terrorist groups' guesthouses. There are supporters of terrorism in parliament. We cannot be positive towards this” therefore Turkey succesfully playing zero sum game on international geopolitical strategy.
The game of chicken, also known as the hawk–dove game or snowdrift game, is a model of conflict for two players in game theory. The principle of the game is that while the ideal outcome is for one player to yield (to avoid the worst outcome if neither yields), the individuals try to avoid it out of pride for not wanting to look like a 'chicken'. Each player taunts the other to increase the risk of shame in yielding. However, when one player yields, the conflict is avoided, and the game is for the most part over. The game of chicken models two drivers, both headed for a single-lane bridge from opposite directions. The first to swerve away yields the bridge to the other. If neither player swerves, the result is a costly deadlock in the middle of the bridge, or a potentially fatal head-on collision. It is presumed that the best thing for each driver is to stay straight while the other swerves (since the other is the "chicken" while a crash is avoided). Additionally, a crash is presumed to be the worst outcome for both players. This yields a situation where each player, in attempting to secure their best outcome, risks the worst. At this point United States and United Kingdom as representing the Atlanticist structure intimidated Russia by uniting with Eurocentric structure of European Union regarding Sweden and Finland NATO membership bids then President Putin clearly understant nature of game theory and Russian decision makers well aware of the fact that Turkey playing Zero-Sum Game against Finland and Sweden this is why President Putin stated that “NATO Expansion by addition of those countries poses no direct threat for us but expansion of military infrastructure into this territory would certainly provoke our response” As understanding from this statements Putin avoided crush as choosing position of chicken in game.
Since Russian invasion to Ukraine, Finnish neutrality position become unraveled and Finnish Decision makers are thinking that should Helsinki apply for NATO membership a rapid ascension will be likely. However ratification period would be dangerous as Finland would not protected by article 5 during this perion of time. Therefore Washington offered support to Helsinki during the transition period. Germany also has suppoted the move furthermore Germany Policy Makers contemplating that Finland’s membership could be approved overnight at the alliance’s headquartes. However the biggest obstacle comes from Turkey because of the fact that Finland and Sweeden are major sponsors of the terrorist group YPG and PYD with by funding to 376 million Dollar. Hundreds of millions of dollars of Finnish and Swedish taxpayer money is directly and indirectly sent to groups that seek to harm Turkish population. In accordance to Finnish Policy Makers, it bears no geopolitical value and without much hassle they could cancel the relationship with terrorist group PKK and reassure Turkey for its own security. At this point it is important to reach a consensus within NATO given the fact that Finland is expecting to be offered NATO membership before the Alliance’s Madrid Conference in June 2022. Especially if Sweden follow Finland to join into the alliance then Sweden Gripen Fighters together with the F- 35s from Norway and Denmark would be a important force totaling more than about 250 advanced fighter jets forcing the Russians to adjust their strategic posturing and stretch their military deterrence thinly. Moreover Swedish airspace and the possibility of a military base on Gotland would have tremendous power projection capabilities. It would strengthen NATO’s grip on the Baltic States.
Converting the Baltic Sea into a NATO lake would also reduce the vulnerabilities associated with the Suwalki Gap and create greater EU NATO integration ( Atlanticist and Eurocentric approach convergence ) and those burden sharing is allowing Washington succesfully to implement the “Game of Chicken Strategy” against Russia. Should the Baltic Sea turn into a NATO lake it would incapacitate the Russian Navy with no relief in sight where Russia operates the world’s largest fleet of submarines and Russia mostly rely on Baltic Sea for free passage to Atlantic which is the only way to bypass the American Undersea Surveillance System.
Russian submarines are still sailing outside the territorial waters of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania on the way to Danish Straits and if Finland and Sweden join NATO then the passage for navigation would become dangerous for Russian submarines to move undetected. As NATO members Finland and Sweden will share all naval intelligence with Washington therefore NATO will be able to track the movement of Russian submarines which will not hide itself it should be noted that stealth issue is the most important purpose of submarine strategy. Should Finland and Sweden join NATO, it would be a game changer and that is precisely the problem. the consequences of antagonizing Russia will have very strong effect. Moscow’s nuclear facilities on the Kola Peninsula are the center of Russian power and missile defense in the western arctic which the western portion of the Kola Peninsula is arguably the most densely packed area on the planet. Same region has the most extensive collection of airbases belonging to Russian air force including assets such as the Tupolev Tu-160 Blackjack, Tupolev Tu-22M Blackfire and The Tupolev Tu-95 bear. The bulk of these long range strategic bombers is located in western part of the Kola Peninsula in which the entire Kola Peninsula is connected to the rest of Russia by one road and one rail road. It means that all this fire power deterrence and power projection are being held in place by a parallel road and rail corridor it should be remembered that Russian logistics was bed in Ukraine, Russian Army Commanders should carefully consider the attacking from Kola Peninsula to Finland.
What other responses might Russia have to Finland and Sweden?
Russia can finance some groups in these countries; It was alleged that Russian-affiliated agents financed protest groups before the 2016 United States elections. It is thought that Russia may also finance far-right groups to destabilize society in Sweden.
Russia may intervene the process of admission to NATO membership; Decisions, including the recruitment of new members to NATO, must be taken unanimously among all the countries in the alliance. On the other hand, Turkey as NATO member country that have good relations with Russia.
Russia can create economic barriers; Most Swedish and Finnish companies have already cut ties with Russia, but in the long run Russia may try to harm by blocking these countries from accessing the Russian market or by stopping their raw material and energy supply. As a matter of fact, the flow of Russian natural gas to Finland was cut off. However, Sweden and Finland are two of the European countries least dependent on natural gas and oil due to their energy diversity. Therefore, Russia's embargo is not expected to be effective.
Cyber attacks are possible; Cyber-attacks will emerged on government websites or online services of Sweden and Finland.
Russia might turn the border into a military build-up; Russia has said that if Finland and Sweden join NATO, Russia would have to respond.
Air and sea space may be violated; With Sweden's desire to enter NATO, Russian aircraft violated Swedish airspace twice. In the first, at the beginning of March, three Russian jets began flying over the Swedish island of Gotland.
Military attacks may begin; The Swedish island of Gotland is seen as an important strategic point for control of the Baltic Sea. It is thought that Russia may see the interim period between Sweden's application to NATO and its membership as its last chance to seize the island.
* This analysis was published in INSS on May 21, 2022 in English. The Turkish version is adapted from the original article.