The Russo-Ukrainian War Appears Not To Be Short

Attack on the Zaporozhye Nuclear Power Plant:

Russia prioritized attacks on Ukraine's strategic regions and facilities. In this context, on March 3, Russian troops intensified their attempts to seize the Zaporozhye nuclear power plant. But his two attacks on the Mykolaiv region were repelled. As the clashes continued, the second round of talks between Ukraine and Russia was held. In these talks, it was agreed to jointly provide humanitarian corridors for the evacuation of civilians and the supply of food and medicine.

The failure of Russia to make the expected rapid and successful progress so far has increased the belief that Ukraine can stop the Russian army if it is supported enough. For this reason, Western countries began to send new weapons to Ukraine. For example, Germany approved the sending of 2,700 Strela type anti-aircraft missiles to Ukraine. Germany had previously decided to send 1000 anti-tank and 500 Stinger anti-aircraft missiles to Ukraine.

Diplomatic Activities Continue in the Background:

It seemed that Russia realized that things were not going exactly as they wanted and started to focus on achieving the desired result at the table. The Russian Foreign Minister said that they are ready for negotiations with Ukraine, but that they will continue the operation. Expressing that Ukraine is following a policy towards becoming a member of NATO, Lavrov said, "The reason for what is happening in Ukraine is the country's desire to join NATO and NATO's desire to strengthen its own security at the expense of other countries' security." said. Putin had a 90-minute phone conversation with French President Macron.

From the beginning, Ukraine was fighting a war of attrition rather than classical frontline battles. Instead of organizing his military forces in fixed positions held by large units, he was conducting an active defense by spreading many small elements over a wide area. In this way, it distributed the center of gravity and prevented the Russian army from reaching a definite result with a single or several blows.

Shoulder-Dropped Weapons Mark the War:

While spreading his military forces over a wide area in the form of teams equipped with classical and modern anti-tank and anti-aircraft guns, he was turning the residential areas into resistance points with the help of the civilian population. In other words, he was preventing the Russians from reaching the result by spreading the war over a wide area and making it a weight center and trying to inflict as many casualties as possible on the Russian forces with small and large numbers of attacks everywhere.

This strategy required professional experienced personnel who had participated in similar battles. For this reason, Zelenski invited people of this nature from all over the world to his country. This invitation will have met with a response, as he announced that 16 thousand foreign volunteer fighters came to help Ukraine and their first convoys were about to reach the country.

The Confidence of the Ukrainian Army Increases:

The strategy applied worked and the Ukrainian army started to make limited targeted attacks in some regions. As a result of these attacks, on March 4, the control of the Kulbakino airbase in Ukraine, Gostomel and Mikolayiv was taken back from the Russian forces. Clashes also intensified in Bucha and Irpin, near Kyiv. But despite everything, the Russian army continued to advance in some areas. For example, the Zaporozhye nuclear power plant fell into the hands of the Russians.

Knowing that it could not stop Russia with its military success in the field, Ukraine took action not only in the military field but also in the political field and was trying to turn the war into a struggle in which more countries participated. In this context, the Ukrainian parliament adopted a resolution calling on the United Nations (UN) to send peacekeepers to Ukraine.

Requests to Declare a No-Fly Zone in Ukraine:

Ukraine also reiterated its call for a no-fly zone to be declared over its country, but Putin warned that any country that enforces a no-fly zone over Ukraine will be deemed to have joined the war. As can be understood from these discussions, both sides focused on air force issues these days. Because although Russia achieved air superiority, it could not establish air dominance. For this reason, Russian armored troops could not advance without being attacked by SİHAs, helicopters and planes.

For this reason, Russia has increased its attacks on airports so that the planes that have not yet been destroyed cannot take off. On March 6, the Vinnytsia airport and the airbase in Starokonstantinov were destroyed by Russian forces. One of the other important targets of the Russians was energy centers. For this reason, they were trying to advance to the north of Mykolaiv and seize the Southern Ukraine Nuclear Power Plant.

The Russian Army's Goals Are Clearly Clear:

When the developments that took place from the beginning of the war until today were examined, it was as if the goals of the Russian army were revealed. The Russian army continued its attacks against Ukraine, focusing its attacks on besieging the cities of Kyiv, Kharkiv, Chernigiv, Sumi and Mykolaiv, reaching the administrative borders in the Luhansk and Donetsk regions, and creating a land corridor from the temporarily occupied Crimea in the direction of Mariupol-Novoazovsk, and to the capital Kiev. It seemed that he was moving to attack.

Russian Ship Shot in the Black Sea: Herald of Moskva

On March 7, the war also showed its effect on the Black Sea coasts. A Russian warship was shot down by the Ukrainian Armed Forces near Odessa. Despite the increasing intensification of the war, negotiations between the parties continued. The third round of negotiations between Russia and Ukraine was held today. There have been positive developments regarding the humanitarian aid corridors. In addition, Russia announced that it has decided to open a humanitarian corridor to Russia unilaterally.

On March 8, it was revealed that the attack speed of the Russian forces had decreased. Adviser to the President of Ukraine, "The pace of progress of the enemy has slowed down significantly. In some areas where they are now advancing, they have actually come to a standstill. Forces continuing to advance are acting in small groups, conducting preliminary reconnaissance and posing no significant threat.” said. Following this, the Armed Forces of Ukraine carried out at least seven limited targeted counterattacks.

On March 9, Ukraine reported that Russian forces were repelled after clashes near Makariv and Borodyanka. The Ukrainian Northern Operational Command stopped the offensive of the Russian forces in the Chernihiv region. But Russian troops made significant progress in Donetsk, Luhansk and Kharkiv. The Russians also made gains by advancing in the south from the Crimea to the Zaporizhzhia region.

Antalya Diplomacy Forum:

Although the attempts of various countries since the beginning of the war did not yield any results, Turkey's diplomatic efforts yielded results for the first time. As a result, the delegations of Russia and Ukraine met in Antalya on March 10. Thus, for the first time since the beginning of the war, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmitro Kuleba and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov sat at the same table. They were accompanied by Minister of Foreign Affairs Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu.

As a result of the talks, the parties announced that they had achieved positive developments in some issues. But peace did not seem so close yet. As a matter of fact, on the same day, Zelensky signed a law that gave freedom to all Ukrainian people to use weapons during the state of emergency in order to encourage the civilian population to resist.

On March 11, the Ukrainian Army continued its limited targeted counterattacks and recaptured 5 settlements in the Chernihiv region from the Russian forces. On March 12, he liberated two more settlements in the same area. But Russian attacks continued to spread to different targets and to different regions. On March 13, 30 missiles were attacked by Russia on the Yavoriv Ukrainian military base near the Polish border. The Yavoriv military base is located 10 km from the Polish border and was used by the Ukrainian army and NATO units for training and joint exercises.

War Stagnant:

On March 14, it was understood that the Russian offensive had slowed down and the conflicts had become stagnant. The Ukrainian army also repelled the offensive attempt of the Russian troops in the direction of Donetsk. This stagnation continued on March 15 and 16. Also on March 16, the International Court of Justice ruled that Russia should immediately cease its invasion of Ukraine.

Russian attacks in some areas and Ukrainian counter-attacks continued until 25 March without making any major difference to the situation. On March 25, the Russian Ministry of Defense announced that the Ukrainian cities of Kyiv, Kharkiv, Chernihiv, Sumi and Mykolaiv are under siege, and that the entire Kherson region and a large part of Zaporizhia are under their control. Luhansk People's Republic militias in 93% of Luhansk; The Donetsk People's Republic had control of 53% of Donetsk.

Russia Announces the Completion of Phase One of Operation:

The Russian Ministry of Defense announced that the first phase of the operation in Ukraine has been completed and it will focus on the complete liberation of Donbas in the new phase. On 26 and 27 March, the parties announced that they had captured many settlements in some regions with offensive and counter-attacks. Ukraine announced that Russian troops in the Kyiv region were pushed back 70 kilometers.

The parties continued to call for a ceasefire and peace talks. For example, Zelensky, who stated that he was ready to discuss Ukraine's neutrality for peace with Russia, said that he wanted reconciliation with Russia over the Donbas, not freezing the conflict. The Ukrainian leader also stated that he understands that it is impossible to force Russia to leave the territory of Ukraine completely, this will lead to the third world war.

Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant is Transferred to Ukraine Again:

On March 27, Russia handed over the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant to Ukrainian employees. It was claimed that the Russian soldiers, who took positions to prepare the region for defense, fell ill by being exposed to intense radiation, and therefore left the region. On March 28, the Ukrainian army announced that it had recaptured Irpin, north of Kiev, from Russian forces.

After the talks held in Antalya, the parties decided to meet in Istanbul on March 29 as a result of Turkey's ongoing initiatives. Prior to the meeting, it was claimed that Russia abandoned some of its demands on Ukraine, while Ukrainian Foreign Minister Kuleba said that the parties were close to agreeing on some steps. In Kuleba's statement; He stated that Russia gave up on the condition of "de-Nazis of Ukraine" demanded for a while and started to look warmly to joining the European Union on the condition that Kiev does not receive military support.

Russia-Ukraine Reconciliation Talks Continue:

In some media, it was reported that the agreement was conditional on Ukraine's renunciation of NATO membership, and that the draft ceasefire documents did not include Russia's demands for "de-Nazis", "disarmament" and "Legal protection of the Russian in Ukraine". It was also noted that Russia's operation, which has been going on for more than a month, has slowed down.

In some newspapers; It was noted that while Ukraine is also prevented from developing nuclear weapons, it will not be allowed to establish a foreign military base in Ukraine. The Ukrainian authorities stated that a practice similar to the 5th article of NATO, which stipulates that "all allies should come together in the event of an attack on a member country", can be implemented, for this purpose, Ukraine; They said that they would demand security guarantees from Russia, the USA, England, Canada, France, Germany, China, Italy, Poland, Israel and Turkey, but they would not accept the loss of territory in the east of the Donbas region and the annexation of Crimea.

From the statements made after the meeting, it was clear that significant progress had been made. Both sides stated that they came very close to each other's demands on some of the topics of discussion and stated that most of the necessary conditions for the meeting of Putin and Zelenski were now met.

(To be continued)