The Water Problem of the Boiling World: What is the Latest Situation in the Middle East and Turkey?

Water is unevenly distributed on the earth's surface and contrary to popular belief, it is a finite resource in terms of space and time. As it is known, only 2.5 per cent of the total water in the world is fresh water. Approximately 69 per cent of all fresh water resources are glacial and the other 30 per cent is groundwater. Surface fresh water resources such as rivers and lakes constitute about 1 per cent of the total fresh water in the world.

This limited amount of usable water is fed by the precipitation falling on the earth. When the world population was 3 billion in 1960, the precipitation falling on the earth was the same; today, the world population has reached 8 billion, but the amount of precipitation falling on the earth has not changed. 

844 million people in the world do not have access to drinking water and a quarter of the total population does not have the opportunity to live in a clean environment. 4 billion people experience severe water scarcity for at least one month a year. In short, the picture is not good and is not getting any better." 

On average, 70 per cent of the world's water is used for agriculture, 20 per cent for industry and 10 per cent for domestic consumption. According to UN projections, the population living in areas with water shortage will increase to approximately 3 billion in 2050. According to UN reports, 850 million people still do not have clean drinking water and 2.5 billion people do not have healthy environmental conditions. 

Good management of water in the world is among the UN's sustainable development goals. Many countries, including our country, are trying to meet this target by 2030. In addition to regions such as the Middle East and North Africa, Central and South Asia, which experience physical water shortages in the world, there is also an economic water shortage in Central and South Africa. 90 per cent of the water in Africa is located in 63 transboundary river basins. The current population of 1.2 billion is expected to double by 2050.

Currently, 157 of the 286 transboundary river basins do not have any co-operation framework agreement. In this context, the security dimension of climate change gains importance on the international arena.

In the world, there is a difference between the northern and southern hemispheres in favour of the north in terms of water potential, sectoral use of water and the amount of water per capita. 

Freshwater water in the world is not an unlimited resource, on the contrary, it is an extremely limited resource in terms of quality and quantity according to regions. This limited resource is under pressure from the increase in human demands and needs, climate change and consumption policies.

Since the middle of the 20th century, water resources in the world have started to be a strategic resource. The number of countries with defined political borders, which was only 40 at the beginning of the 20th century, increased to 190 at the beginning of the 21st century. This situation caused many river basins in the world to remain within the political borders of more than one country.  More than half of the water of 39 countries in the world started to come from outside the country. About half of the world's population started to live in transboundary water basins. 

Transboundary water basins cover 152 countries. About half of all rivers flow in these basins. Despite all the efforts of the UN Law Commission in the 20th century, no comprehensive and applicable to all disputes international rules that determine the rights and obligations of riparian states on transboundary waters could be established. However, some legal principles and framework conventions applicable to this issue could be prepared

The 1997 UN Convention on Transboundary Waters was drafted with the international relations thinking of the 20th century, but it could only come into force in the new geopolitics and world order of the 21st century. As a framework convention, it gained international validity in 2014, but it has not been widely accepted internationally. The reason for this is that this convention has some shortcomings that need to be finalised. 

Middle East 

The Middle East has 5 per cent of the world's population and 1 per cent of the world's water resources. 90% of these water resources consist of transboundary water resources. For this reason, the Middle East is a very unique geography where insecurity is experienced between neighbouring countries.

In the last 50 years, there have been 37 violent conflicts between countries over water. Seven of these have occurred in the Middle East. Israel, the most important actor here, has been trying to create a water security area for itself since its establishment. Israel supplies one third of its total water demand from the water resources in the Jordan River and the Golan Heights. Among the tributaries of the Jordan River Basin, the Yarmouk River and the Golan Heights are particularly important water basins.

Before the 1967 Arab-Israeli War, Israel had only 3 per cent of the waters of the basin. However, by occupying the West Bank and the Golan Heights, Israel increased the proportion of water in its possession to 10 per cent, and later increased this proportion.

In 1967, Israel took control of the Golan Heights, the Upper Jordan River and the Banyas tributary and monopolised water control to a large extent. According to the UN reports, Israel still obtains 67 per cent of the water it uses from the occupied territories. Israel, which has transferred the water resources in the region to its own use, has also banned the Palestinians living there from drilling water wells. 

The problem of sharing water resources became one of the important causes of the "Six Day War". In fact, Moshe Dayan, the Israeli Defence Minister of the time, stated that both the Arabs and themselves entered this war in order to control the water resources.

Currently, the Middle East is a region of political instability, partial civil war and uncertainty. The insecurity among the countries also negatively affects the co-operation on water. With the negative impact of climate change, effective and co-operative management of water in the Middle East is becoming more difficult day by day. This situation will negatively affect peace and stability in the future of the region. 

Turkey 

Turkey's average annual areal precipitation is 574 mm, which is below the world average. Within the framework of today's technical and economic conditions, the consumable surface and ground water potential of our country is 112 billion m3 per year, of which 57 billion m3 is used.

In our country, which is located in a semi-arid region of the world, the annual amount of usable water per capita is 1,340 m3 and it is predicted that this amount will decrease to 1,116 m3 in 2040 considering the population growth and industrialisation rate. According to these data, although our country is not water poor as of today, it is a country under Water Stress. The future of water in our country is under the pressure of climate change, population growth, pollution and internal migration. 

Our water resources are under the pressure of population growth, climate change, migration to cities and inefficient use. Projections show that by 2040, water deficit in the water budget will occur in many of our basins. We use 57 billion m3 of our 112 billion m3 water potential. Turkey is not a water rich country. In fact, it is not a water poor country either. In Turkey, water resources, population and industrialisation are distributed in different regions. Internal migration continues from regions with more water to regions with limited water. Therefore, Turkey is a country that has to use its water resources rationally and efficiently.

Transboundary water basins constitute 35% of Turkey's water resources and 22% of our land borders consist of rivers. Therefore, our policies on transboundary and border-forming waters are important and this importance is increasing with the impact of climate change. Turkey has so far based its transboundary water policies on the development of regional peace and co-operation, but the rapidly changing geopolitics, especially in the Middle East, has prevented the desired results from these policies.