Water Should Not Be a Weapon in the India-Pakistan Conflict. Water Issues Can Be Resolved Technically and Politically
The tension between India and Pakistan initially began over water rights. India first announced that it was suspending the Indus Waters Treaty. After suspending the treaty, India began to take more radical measures to control the water.
Following the deaths of several people in an attack carried out by armed individuals in the tourist town of Pahalgam in Kashmir on 22 April, India has begun to impose various diplomatic and commercial sanctions on Pakistan. The tension began with a strategic war over water rights, and India made a cautious statement that it was suspending the Indus Waters Treaty. According to news reports, there have been 11 clashes between the two countries along the border since the attack. During this period, India began to take more radical steps to control water after putting the agreement on hold. As of 5 May 2024, India has stopped the flow of water from the Baglihar Dam and Salal Dam on the Chenab River to Pakistan. It cited the cleaning of sediment accumulated in the dam reservoirs as the reason for this move.
On 7 May 2025, India launched a missile attack on Pakistan's Azad Kashmir region. With Pakistan's retaliation, clashes in the region are expected to escalate. However, it is known that water has not been used as a weapon of war in previous conflicts and that the Indus Agreement has been upheld. This tradition should be maintained today as well. Because a hydro strategy aimed at restricting water in this region could result in a major disaster.
Water is not being released from the Baglihar and Salal Dams
India has announced that it has begun an operation to clean debris from the Salal and Baglihar dams, two large hydroelectric projects on the Chenab River in Jammu and Kashmir. As a result, Indian media reports have indicated that water levels in the river have begun to drop and that water flow to Pakistan has decreased. News reports also suggest that New Delhi plans to halt water flow from the Kishanganga Dam on the Jhelum River.
Baglihar and Salal Dams
The Baglihar Dam is a concrete gravity dam with a height of 143 metres, a crest length of 317 metres, and a total storage capacity of 395 million cubic metres. The majority of the dam's reservoir is allocated for sediment collection, with an active storage capacity of 32.5 million cubic metres. The dam's power plant has an installed capacity of 900 MW. There is a discharge spillway with a capacity of 16,500 m³/s for releasing water during floods. This capacity indicates that the river's maximum flood discharge is very high, and if this water is released uncontrolled, it could cause significant damage to Pakistan downstream.
Pakistan has objected to the design criteria of numerous high dams and hydroelectric power plant projects on the Chenab River, an important tributary of the Indus River, but has not achieved any results. It has argued that these projects are not aimed at reasonable energy production but rather at gaining a significant advantage in water control, thereby providing India with strategic superiority during times of political tension or war.
The Salal Dam is a rock-fill concrete dam with a height of 113 metres and a crest length of 487 metres, completed in 1986. The dam has a storage capacity of 280 million cubic metres. It houses hydroelectric power plants with a total installed capacity of 690 MW. The maximum discharge that the Salal Dam will release downstream during floods is very high, similar to the Baglihar Dam, at 22,500 m³/s.
According to information published in the media, India has stated that it will stop the flow of water by cleaning the sediment accumulated in the reservoirs of these dams. Interventions in the river's water flow could validate Pakistan's previous objections. Additionally, India's initiatives could complicate efforts to return to the 1960 Indus Waters Treaty or establish new water cooperation agreements.
If the water accumulated in the dams is suddenly released, Pakistan could experience severe flooding.
Sediment cleaning at the Baglihar Dam and Salal Dam on the Chenab River requires the power plants at the dams to be shut down. During this period, a small amount of water mixed with sediment will be released for cleaning through spillways. The water entering the dam and not used by the 900 MW and 690 MW power plants will accumulate in the dam reservoirs. Releasing this water uncontrolled through the dam gates could cause major floods in Pakistan. Both dams have the capacity to release the accumulated water downstream in large flows. On 2 May 2025, due to heavy rainfall, the gates of the Salal Dam were opened to release water downstream. The region is currently experiencing a rainy period. Cutting off the water released from the dams could cause the dam reservoirs to fill rapidly and release large amounts of water downstream suddenly. Therefore, care must be taken to ensure that the operation of these dam gates is carried out in a controlled manner that does not cause damage downstream.
Water should never be used as a weapon of war.
On 5 May 2025, India announced that it would stop the flow of water, claiming that it would clean up the sediment accumulated in the reservoirs of these dams. According to the written press, a similar measure is planned at the Kishanganga Dam to further increase pressure on Pakistan.
India's missile attack on 7 May 2025 has increased concerns about the region. India should not use the suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty as a strategy to control water.
Cutting off water resources will take the war and conflict to another level and cause tensions between countries to rise. India's decision to wage war over water will deepen the problem and make it very difficult to return to the agreement. Therefore, India should not break with its long-standing tradition of isolating water-sharing cooperation from political and military tensions. Violating the terms of the agreement on water and using water as a weapon of war could also affect water management in many transboundary rivers in the region. This would also set a negative example for the securitisation and weaponisation of water.
Wars over water could increase debate in international law on sensitive issues such as sovereignty, security and the environment. Sanctions imposed over water can create generations of hatred and hostility. While water should be a tool for peace and cooperation, its use as a weapon fuels permanent conflicts. This weakens efforts to ensure security and stability in countries and regions, especially in conflict-ridden areas, that are heavily dependent on transboundary waters.
The Water Agreement remained intact despite wars and tensions
In the 1965 War between India and Pakistan over Kashmir, the parties fought directly, but the agreement remained in force and technical committees continued to work. Despite intense military clashes in the 1971 War, water sharing was not disrupted. Similarly, in the 1999 Kargil War, a limited regional war took place, but the agreement was not suspended. Finally, after the 2016 and 2019 Pulwama attacks, India made statements for the first time that it would ‘cut off water flowing to Pakistan,’ but these threats were not implemented, and the agreement remained in force. In 2025, following a terrorist attack in the tourist town of Pahalgam in Kashmir, India suspended the Water Agreement and began cutting off water supplies for the first time. This move increased the risk of a breakdown in the Water Agreement.
The tradition of cooperation on Indus waters must continue
Despite fighting numerous wars, India and Pakistan have maintained the Indus Waters Treaty, which has established a very important tradition of cooperation on water issues. This tradition is significant in that it shows that even countries at war can adhere to certain fundamental human values and gain greater legitimacy in the eyes of international institutions.
The necessity of water cooperation between Pakistan and India in the Indus River basin is vital. Pakistan is dependent on water from the Kashmir region controlled by India at the level of national security.
This high dependency and the numerous dam and hydroelectric power plant projects developed and planned by India on these waters have completely changed the hydropolitics of the basin. Pakistan's concerns have grown significantly, particularly due to high-altitude dam projects, but appropriate water diplomacy to reduce tensions between the countries has not been implemented. As a result of the escalating hydropolitical tensions, India has, for the first time, made statements and taken actions indicating that it could use water for its geopolitical plans. The region's water resources are under pressure from a growing population, increasing energy needs, and climate change.
If the countries in the region work together to ensure water security through technical and hydropolitical cooperation, it will be possible to achieve more effective results in addressing future water shortages. The possibility of resolving the issues that Pakistan has been raising for a long time through technical and political means is much greater than the impasse that would result from conflict and increased tension. To this end, all actions and statements that could exacerbate tensions over water must be halted. Care must be taken to ensure that water accumulated in dams is released in a controlled manner that does not cause problems for Pakistan.
Conclusion
The Kashmir issue is a long-standing problem between India and Pakistan. In the search for a solution to the Kashmir issue, India should not seek to gain ground through water resources. This is because forcing Pakistan into a war over water would not be beneficial for either country. Furthermore, potential water-related problems in this region could threaten many security balances in the region and around the world. Both countries should act with caution and restraint to prevent this. At the same time, the United Nations (UN) Security Council and relevant international organisations should take swift action to reduce tensions between the two countries and prevent water resources from being used as a weapon of war.
In this context, the 1960 Indus Waters Treaty, which has been in force for 65 years, can be reviewed under new conditions under the leadership of the UN. Both countries should show the necessary care to prevent the tension between them from escalating to higher levels over water. All technical and political means and all possibilities of hydrodiplomacy should be utilised in resolving water issues between countries today. This is because there are no permanent winners in water wars, and there is sufficient knowledge and experience in the world regarding water cooperation.
