Weapons, Water and East of the Euphrates

While Turkey has recently launched a new initiative to resolve the Kurdish issue under the banner of ‘Terror-Free Turkey’ and the commission established in the Grand National Assembly continues its work, the shifting sands of the Middle East remain in flux. In other words, Turkey has begun to implement a radical policy against the plan of the US and its allies to create a New Middle East, but in recent times, actions and statements aimed at reducing the impact of Turkey's policy in the region have also increased.

The SDG-YPG's declarations of intent for a politically decentralised or politically-administratively autonomous administration in Syria and their statements inviting Israel to the region, coupled with the contradictory statements of the US special representative, have added tension to the process. The task assigned by the US to genocidal Israel for shaping the New Middle East and controlling the Eastern Mediterranean is being implemented step by step, sometimes with overreach of authority and duties. Israel's announced plan to annex the West Bank also shows that it will be the transformative power in the region. The SDG's statements rejecting a unitary structure in Syria and Turkey's harsh statements indicating that it will undermine this game have directed the SDG towards a process of ‘being with Damascus without integrating’. However, despite this, the roadmap of the New Middle East Plan of genocidal Israel and the Pentagon, now renamed the US War Department, is in force.

The ultimate political goal of these developments, which first occurred in Iraq and then in Syria and are aimed at changing the political borders in the region, is well known. Setting aside the other reasons driving these developments and analysing the current situation, it is clear that the concepts of Weapons, Water and Borders are at the forefront in the region.

For a long time, the US has been shipping far more light and heavy weapons, armoured vehicles, helicopters and other military equipment to north-eastern Syria than is necessary to combat ISIS. This number is reported to be approximately 13,000 lorry loads of weapons and ammunition. A figure of 30,000 lorries is also mentioned for other logistical support aid.

Considering the military, geopolitical and hydro-political situation in the region, it is evident that a large stockpile of weapons has been accumulated in North-East Syria, that the Tishreen Dam, which controls the Euphrates River in Syria, has long been under the control of the YPG, and that a geographical border between the east and west of the Euphrates River has been established. This situation has been maintained as a de facto state of affairs for a long time.

Following the memorandum of understanding signed by the SDG and the Syrian government on 10 March 2025, three key concepts emerged during subsequent discussions. These are: the SDF handing over its weapons and integrating into the Syrian army; the transfer of control of water (the Tishreen Dam, the first dam after the Euphrates River leaves Turkey) to the Syrian government; and abandoning the claim that the Euphrates is a border within Federal Syria and accepting a unitary union. Therefore, the concepts of ‘Weapons, Water and Borders,’ which are being negotiated and sought to be agreed upon, will determine Syria's political future.

If the preservation of Syria's unitary integrity is desired, agreement on these three issues will be reached quickly. However, if US-backed Israeli policies are implemented to create a divided Syria in the New Middle East, the new situation that will take shape around the concepts of Weapons, Water and Eastern Euphrates will directly concern our country.