What are the Future Implications of Xi's Moscow Visit?

Xi and Putin met in Moscow last Tuesday. The dialog at the moment of farewell was interesting. When people leave, they are confused but their messages are clear. They want to say something at once. It seemed to me that Xi did the same.

Xi: Change unseen for a century is coming and we are leading the change. 

Putin: I agree. 

Xi: Please take care of yourself, my friend.

China doubles ties with Russia

According to the widespread perception in the Western world, Xi has been implicitly, if not explicitly, demonstrating at every opportunity that he is determined to take a stance intent on preventing Putin's failure in Ukraine. Xi supports Putin's ability to continue the war in many indirect ways without "sanctions violations", and he does not really hide this effort. He is just careful not to violate any rules. He does not want to play into the hands of the US and the West. 

In this context, the relations between the two countries have almost doubled in every aspect since the war. The military and economic ties between Russia and China are deepening. This needs to be seen.

Xi, Russia's indirect supporter, is acting with a well-planned strategy. He is calling for peace. He makes a special effort to be the architect of peace, to stay away from 'adversarial' sentiments. At the same time, he does not hesitate to adopt what has now become a classic Kremlin line that the US and NATO are guilty of "fanning the flames". Still, China wants to project the image of a country capable of demonstrating responsible global leadership between the parties. Therefore, it emphasizes that it will play a facilitating role for peace. To this end, Beijing's 12-point "peace plan" is a document to preserve Beijing's claim to neutrality. However, for some reason, Beijing is leaving on the table a peace proposal full of generalizations, without any mention of the West's and Ukraine's condition for peace that Russia withdraw from the occupied Ukrainian territories.

On the other hand, China has been reinforcing its role as a global peacemaker in the eyes of the world community by brokering the rapprochement between Saudi Arabia and Iran in early March. And with good reason. Having achieved a historic deal between Tehran and Riyadh, Beijing may now want to build on this reputation by building peace between Russia and Ukraine. This is understandable. 

These efforts seem designed to offer Xi an alternative to the US-led global order. He opposes "blocs" like NATO. He offers a vague framework for global cooperation and security, but conceptually emphasizes the Global Security Initiative discourse. I believe that Xi sees the partnership with Russia not only as a tool for China's efforts to revise the global order, but also as a means to prepare for the expected long-term strategic rivalry with the U.S. Especially in the event of a war to annex Taiwan, to reduce the vulnerability of the People's Republic of China against U.S. sanctions and to develop an alternative to the U.S.-centered global financial system, establishing relations with Russia today has the potential to bring critical outcomes to Beijing when the time comes. In short, I believe that Xi is taking strategic steps not only to save Putin but also to build his own country's future.

It will become increasingly difficult to discern the limits of the "borderless" partnership being built between Russia and China. The United States and its allies may find it necessary to oppose the building of a Beijing-Moscow pipeline that has a growing capacity to jeopardize their own security interests and prospects in Europe and Asia in the coming years. And I would expect them to do so. For the liberal world to allow an authoritarian world order to be built right in front of their eyes would mean that they would be cutting their own legs off, and it seems unlikely that they would allow the existence of a threat to all the living spaces that the Western world has built over 500 years. I don't think the West has any choice but to prevent this unlimited authoritarian buildup. 

Is there more hope for peace in Ukraine?

Putin is in a difficult position and needs more support from China politically, economically and even militarily. Xi is also keen to strengthen Putin's hand, but he does not want to draw international criticism by openly endorsing Western sanctions and Russian aggression. In the run-up to the Moscow meeting, there were media reports that Washington believed that China was considering sending arms to Russia, which would lead to major sanctions. China was forced to deny these reports. It was also an answer that tied its own hands. Nevertheless, there is growing evidence that some Chinese weapons - land guns, artillery shells and components for drones - are being sent to Russia. Beijing undoubtedly wants to continue this aid without provoking a strong reaction from the United States, so that it can work together with Putin in the world he is trying to build in the future. It's a case of what goes around comes around. In any case, the issue of Beijing's arms aid to Moscow was not reflected in any way in the public discussion of the visit by China and Russia. This was taken care of.

The most important Ukrainian development at the summit was Putin's general endorsement of China's twelve-point approach to peace in Ukraine. Putin believes that the Chinese document is "consistent" with Moscow's policy and can serve as a "basis" for a nascent negotiating process when Kiev and the West are ready to talk. The West's criticism of the Chinese plan is that it says nothing about respect for territorial integrity. It looks like a plan that quietly endorses Moscow's violations. Putin would undoubtedly be expected to support such a plan, and he has done so. 

China's peace proposal, together with Xi's neutral stance, is essentially aimed at helping Moscow. However, despite his failures on the battlefield, Putin still has maximalist ambitions, and this prevents him from making a "ceasefire" that could serve as a basis for China's peace initiative. 

Plans are apparently underway for Xi to hold a phone call with Ukrainian President Volodymir Zelensky. This would be a step to prove that Beijing is a neutral and reasonable mediator in a crisis that it refuses to call a war. But will this phone call lead to the approval of a peace plan? The US and the West will probably not consent to Zelensky taking a step without a step from Putin. Because this war is no longer just a war between Ukrainians and Russians. Without a ceasefire that meets the expectations of the West as a whole, I think a peace that satisfies Kiev's subjective interests is unlikely. Moreover, with such strong support from Xi, Putin's capacity to withstand pressure to make concessions to the West has increased. Therefore, I would say that after the summit, the prospects for peace in Ukraine are even less likely than before the summit.

Is Russia becoming a vassal state of China?

In the Western world, commentaries on the Shi-Putin summit have portrayed Russia as a second-class state. In reality, China and Russia are politically and economically different from the West. The two countries are trying to capitalize on the ties they are building between them with a deeper bilateral relationship. This should be read as a continuation of a long-term process. I think a perspective limited only to this visit could be misleading for everyone.

The main objective of this partnership is to reduce the vulnerabilities of the Moscow-Beijing line against the global power of the United States, and ultimately to roll back the hegemonic American power. First of all, the following should be known: Putin chose to sacrifice his ties with the West when he invaded Ukraine. Xi, on the other hand, sees the US as implacably opposed to his country's rise. That's why he wants to go down in history as the leader who built China's global rise by constructing a foreign policy focused on confronting Washington. With a guaranteed lifetime in power, Xi has the advantage over American presidents of being in power for the long haul, in that he is able to think long-term. This makes it possible for Xi to develop a long-term strategy. The same is true for Putin, who severed ties with the Western world with his invasion of Ukraine.

In exchange for Xi's full support, Putin may find it necessary to do Moscow's bidding on anti-American global policies dictated by Beijing, even if only temporarily. He may even be forced to do so in the current conjuncture. After all, we are dealing with a Putin whom the International Criminal Court has labeled a war criminal in absentia. The West has closed its doors to Putin. The door to the East is still open, albeit perhaps risky, and despite the risks, this single door should also be seen as a refuge for Putin. In this context, Russia's cooperation with China is part of a "long-term strategy for a common struggle" against the West. 

By the way, the timing of Xi's visit to Moscow, Xi's meeting with Putin just after the court's ruling, was also interesting in terms of timing. The presence of Shi'ite as a protector of Putin, who was pushed into 'isolation', was important for Putin, even if psychologically. One should not forget this. Even if you are a mighty head of state, in the end, you are a human being like everyone else. You have human emotions. At this point, I think Xi must have built a very close friendship with Putin. It seems that both leaders will serve as presidents of their countries for many years to come. I think that while Xi has elevated his reputation as an international statesman with his "peace plan" in his pocket, he has actually deepened his ties with Russia and succeeded in making that country more dependent on China, perhaps temporarily, through its leader Putin.

Over time, as the power imbalance in the relationship continues to widen in China's favor, Moscow's ability to pursue an independent foreign policy or to accommodate Beijing's interests will diminish. Now, for the Western world, the emerging distant threat is increasingly becoming an imminent threat. The Moscow visit will have an accelerating effect. It will further reinforce the view among the US and its democratic allies that China is a threat.

Xi's approach to Russia is representative of his changing foreign policy in general.

1) Xi has fully embraced anti-Americanism and this has become the main driver of his foreign policy.

2) Viewing the US and its partners as inherently hostile, Xi is reorienting China's foreign policy to focus on the developing world, which Beijing believes is a more fertile ground for building support for Chinese interests. 

Russia and China are sanctioned by the West for very different reasons and with very different levels of impact. But these economic sanctions are bringing the two countries closer together, and giving Xi and Putin a common goal of shaping a new world order by confronting the West and hoping to challenge the dominance of the US dollar and the euro in the global economy. In short, a new global financial system is being built.

Conclusion

Here, as with Russia, China can weave new networks of relations that bind other countries to its political and economic dominance. We have before us a Chinese profile that has this potential in spades. According to Beijing's plans, these relations will form the basis of an alternative world order centered on China and controlled by Beijing. The BRICS countries, Iran, Turkey, perhaps Pakistan and Saudi Arabia, as well as the Gulf states and some African countries are seen as candidates to be part of this order. The situation in India, Pakistan and Turkey may develop differently due to their specific circumstances. This seems to be shaped entirely according to the political leadership of these three countries. In this respect, the May 14 elections are an important historical threshold. It is an election that will also be an indicator of where Turkey will evolve. Again, the struggle of Imran Khan in Pakistan deserves to be closely followed in this respect. I believe that India's arming with Russia will clarify its direction in the near term in terms of its ability to overcome the disputes between New Delhi-Beijing and/or find a place for itself in the AUKUS formation. 

After all, Sino-Russian cooperation is surrounded by national interests and great power rivalry. Putin's Russia is a candidate to be the key to this global vision for China. To a greater extent than ever before, Moscow has been swayed by Beijing's steering wheel. Xi's Moscow summit made this abundantly clear. From now on, Putin will only be able to find a place in the wheelhouse as Xi's chief wheelwright.