What Are the Logistics Problems in the Russia-Ukraine War?
Russia is a landlocked country. Therefore, it is a necessity to support the military operation of Russia from the ground. The Ukrainian operation is geographically characterized by land logistical support typically deployed. First of all, let's take a look at the principles of logistics operations that will support ground operations. These principles are concepts that are commonly used in both military and civilian logistics literature.
Continuity: The basis of all logistics activities is the provision of a continuous and uninterrupted supply chain. Soldiers who run out of food and ammunition and are deprived of shelter become demoralized and out of combat.
Adequacy: There must be a hinterland that can supply the logistics load that will be needed from its own resources.
Standardization: Standardized procedures should be used in all materials and supply methods used. This provides simplicity. It is possible to supply the desired amount of logistics cargo as standard cargoes at the desired place and time.
Geography: Every logistics operation has features suitable for the geography in which it is applied. Land, air, sea and railways are critical elements that must be retained for the logistics of military operations.
Planning: The sine qua non of logistics operations is planning. In order to use resources effectively, efficiently and effectively, simple, flexible and applicable plans should be prepared and constantly controlled by a center at a strategic level. While this is the case for resource use, on the other hand, the most important feature of logistics planning is that it includes details. Individual and user-level needs should be determined in advance and procurement methods should be developed.
Affordability: No resource is unlimited. It is necessary to use the limited resources at hand sparingly. The number and duration are decisive in the use of resources.
Elasticity: Operations are full of uncertainties. Everything may not go as planned. For this purpose, logistic plans should include flexibility and alternative modes of action that can respond to situational changes.
Traceability: Logistics load that you cannot track is out of your control. Traceability of the logistics load also contributes to flexibility.
Coordination: Military operations and logistic operations should be carried out in coordination and harmony. This coordination is at such a high level that sometimes logistics operations limit military operations, and sometimes military operations can change shape in accordance with logistics operations.
After examining the principles, let's analyze the details of Russia's military operation in Ukraine in the light of the aforementioned principles:
Ukraine is a country with a geographical shape that we can call a square or circular shape, about the size of Turkey, limited by the sea to the south. The Dnieper river, which runs almost through the middle of the country, divides Ukraine into two roughly equal parts, which we will define as east and west. Industrialized regions and large cities are usually located in the eastern part of the country. Therefore, the population density is also in the east. In the south, the Black Sea coast and the ports of Odessa and Maripol are of vital importance for Ukraine both militarily and economically. There are developed roads and railways and airports in this region. The fact that Russia is conducting its operation in the east of Ukraine, where it borders Ukraine, provides a great comfort to Russia in terms of logistics.
When we evaluate Russia and its ally Belarus together, we see that Ukraine is in a concave position in a ground operation by Russia. This is an advantage for Russia and a disadvantage for Ukraine. As a matter of fact, when we examine the operation, we see that Russia is carrying out a strategic siege operation from the centre, south and north. The fact that the operation is carried out in an encompassing manner due to the geography provides logistical convenience to Russia in terms of the proximity and connection of the lines.
Russia has made a strategic build-up on the Ukrainian border in what we can say for months. This happened before the eyes of the whole world. Strategic stacking is an operation in which logistical organization stands out in all aspects. The expansion of Russia's build-up over a long period of time took place without any problems since its forces were within the territory of its own country.
What was striking in the beginning was that both Russia and Ukraine concentrated the majority of their forces in the Donbas region, which was the starting point of the crisis. A total of approximately 200,000 military forces from both sides have been deployed in this region. It is advantageous for Russia in terms of logistics concentration in the Donbas region. Because the Donbas region is a land border with Russia, there is a large Russian population as friendly elements in the region, and it is possible to support the Donbas region with the navy from the Black Sea. It is evaluated that the Russian army will not have any logistical problems in this region, especially if it captures the Maripol port.
Russian central forces are in the Kharkov-Sumi region. In the beginning, we said that Russia is a landlocked country, in this respect, Russia is from the center to Ukraine.
It is clear that he will use the railways in a land campaign of depth. In the historical process, Russia has used the railways effectively in all its military operations. For a landlocked country, railroads are vital for logistics shipments. When we look at the city of Kharkov from this aspect, we see that it almost has the feature of a railway hub. Russia's capture of Kharkov is necessary in order to ensure the shipment of large quantities of logistics freight to be made in the east-west axis. As a matter of fact, in parallel with the progress of the operation, we see that Russia has persistently intensified its attacks in this region to seize Kharkov.
In the northern region, it is seen that the Russian operation is directed towards the strategic target, the capital, Kiev. In terms of logistics, at first glance, we can say that the Kyiv region may pose a problem for Russia, as it requires a river crossing. However, Russia also maneuvered from the northern part of Kiev and its forces were located in the West of the city. The most important reason for the Russian operation to seize Antonov and Hostomel airports, which are very close to Kiev, is to increase the depth of logistics into Ukraine with the air bridge to be established.
As a result, when we make a sectoral evaluation of the operation, logistics organization also emerges. Russia organized its logistics in three regions, namely the south, the center and the north. Russia will not have any problems with its strong navy in the south. In the center, Kharkov is a nodal point for logistics operations. In the north, airports and Belarusian support will provide Russia with a sustainable logistics support.
Now, let's try to get some clues about Russia's logistical competence with the determinations we made from open intelligence sources and social media.
There is no obvious inadequacy in the clothes and equipment of the Russian soldiers. Russian forces have the necessary equipment for operation in cold climate conditions. Considering that the operation was carried out with motorized and armored units, it is seen that Russia did not constitute base areas and carried out uninterrupted (continuous) operations in accordance with its doctrine. Russian soldiers use their vehicles for shelter. The duration of a ground operation, which can be carried out without a shelter and without a break, varies between a maximum of one week and 10 days. Here again, we can say that logistical operations can limit military operations.
The remarkable thing about clothing is that there is a camouflage problem. The camouflages of the Russian and Ukrainian armies are similar, as they have similar operating areas. To avoid confusion, Russian and Ukrainian soldiers use armbands of different colors.
The operation of the Russian army is mostly developing in the direction of controlling the cities. That's why we see from social media that conventional motorized transfers are made on large land areas rather than tactical transfers. For example, images of Russian vehicles lined up one after another in the north of Kyiv, forming a 64-kilometer convoy, were published. Of course, Russia's control of the Ukrainian airspace is the most important factor in its easy transfer, but there is a logistical determination. The fact that the elements are close and in contact with each other provides an advantage to the Russian army in terms of logistics. We can think of these convoys as mobile base areas. As a matter of fact, the news that some Russian armored vehicles, which left their main unit and acted individually, near cities and in residential areas, had a shortage of fuel, even had to go to the Ukrainians and ask where they could get fuel, and that they were captured on social media.
In terms of food, Russian soldiers are fed with rations (daily food packages). Feeding with cold and canned based ration is not a long-term usable feeding method. In some news on social media, it is seen that the rations given to Russian soldiers have expired and their expiration dates have passed. Again, in some sources, there are images of Russian soldiers breaking into markets and buying food. If the operation is prolonged, these images will be encountered more frequently.
As a result, we can say that Russia has a strategic level logistics structure for the Ukraine operation. The Russian ground operation doctrine was founded on a military operation that started as a strong strategic build-up followed by a raid and continued uninterruptedly. The aim is to control and neutralize strategic targets as soon as possible and to break the will and determination of the enemy to fight. In the Ukrainian operation, there are tactical movements that comply with the doctrine, as well as issues that do not. In particular, the prolongation of the period; It complicates a sustainable military and logistic operation in enemy territory, over large pieces of land, and in cold and rainy weather conditions.
What will stop Russia at this stage of the operation is neither diplomatic initiatives nor Ukraine's resistance. Conflict due to logistical needs Shipments will be concentrated in Kharkov, Kyiv and Maripol regions, they may be directed to Odessa due to their logistic support needs. In terms of logistics, it is clear that Russia's operation in Ukraine, which could not seize Kharkov and thus the railway line, could not provide naval support from Maripol, did not turn to Odessa, and could not offer the airports to the west of Kyiv, for logistic support would be limited to days.
