What Does Russia's 'Partial Mobilization' Mean

Military mobilization have been declared after more than 200 days of  “special military operation” conducted against Ukraine’s Independence. Vladimir Putin is reaching for a card has vowed not to use just a few months ago. In remarks of few months ago, President Putin said that “I would like to address the mothers, wives, sisters and fiancees and girlfriends of our soldiers and officers who are now in combat, let me stress; soldiers undergoing compulsory military service are not taking part and will not take part. Neither will there be an additional call up of reservist. Many political science and international relations experts having a reaction which is almost unanimous meaning that Putin says that “we are losing”. On the other hand, after failed assassination attempt against Political Scientist Alexander Dugin, President  Vladimir Putin taking a big risk both politically targetted  immediate circle of power those who are opponent oligarch and socially targetted ordinary citizens those who are criticizing Russian Federation’s offensive war. Nevertheless the mobilization decision  frightened the opponent oligarch although for the time being the protest in Russia are rather modest. It should be noted that Putin has destroyed Russia’s main social contract of the past 30 years.   

Apart from the very decision to launch the war this is one of Vladimir Putin’s most important and risky political decisions. Mobilization is partial only in theory and Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu says 300.000 will be called up but in practice that political decree does not accurately indicate how many man will be forcibly conscripted. Putin reassures that this is only one percent of Russia’s pool of reservist which stands at 25 million in which mobilization decree allows the Defense Ministry to mobilize not 300.000 but 1 million people into the army. It should be assessed that this move is aim at overcoming one of the Russis’s biggest problems during this war that is the problem of manpower. Some estimates put the Russian losses since the begining of this war as high as 150.000 killed, captured and wounded. At this point, 300.000 soldier is formidable mess but in practice much worse prepared than the original strike force. 

Putin reassures that this is only one percent of Russia’s pool of reservist which stands at 25 million in which mobilization decree allows the Defense Ministry to mobilize not 300.000 but 1 million people into the army. 

The most important question is what impact will this move by the Kremlin have on the course of the war. Moscow is using its penultimate bargaining chip in this war besides the nuclear option in practice however it is the last one that can have any positive affect for Russia. The Russian Federation is reverting to the only strategy that worked and in effect brought victory to the Soviet Union which is thrwoing human mess on the enemy but the Russian Federation of  21 st century is not the Soviet Union of the 1940s. Mobilization will certainly seal the feeling of the front lines with records but beyond that the move entails a host of problems primarily in the logistical sphere and Russia already had problems with logistics during the the first phase of the war which after all was started mainly by contract troops. After eight  months of war during which Ukrainians are constantly destroying Russian facilities. About 300 .000 people will be dropped on patched up Russian logistics. Those people must be transported, housed, fed, trained and equipped then led by competent officers. Russia might be able to equip every soldier with a rifle but the Kremlin does not have bulletproof vests, kelvar helmets, encrypted radios and  night vision boots including enough compat vehicles to create new formations with significant combat potential. At this point, Putin’s decision will not affect the overall capability of the Russian army. Kharkiv counter offensive showed how much of a problem the Russians have in maintaining the their fleet of armored vehicles and mobilization will not change that. 

Putin’s decision will not affect the overall capability of the Russian army. Kharkiv counter offensive showed how much of a problem the Russians have in maintaining the their fleet of armored vehicles and mobilization will not change that. 

Thousands of Russians are trying to flee the country to escape the partial mobilization of civilians into the military. The move was announced Wednesday in a televised address by President Vladimir Putin, after Russian armed forces suffered significant losses in recent weeks of their invasion of Ukraine. Flights departing Moscow for the few countries that maintain direct flights with Russia have either sold out or have only a handful of tickets available at astronomical prices. Federal Security Service, or FSB, has begun stopping men from leaving the country on the orders of military commissariats, Russian lawyer Pavel Chikov, who advises on conscription cases, said in his Telegram channel Sunday. He posted photos of two notices handed out at different crossings on the border with Kazakhstan. Crossings at Finland’s eastern land border doubled in the week to Friday to 7,700, according to figures published by the Finnish Border Guard. By Saturday, Russian arrivals had reached 8,572, with departures also climbing to 4,199. At one point on Sunday, the estimated wait to enter Georgia hit 48 hours, with more than 3,000 vehicles queuing to cross the frontier, Russian state media reported, citing local officials. The Georgian capital Tbilisi had already seen an influx of around 40,000 Russians since Moscow invaded Ukraine on Feb. 24, according to government statistics.

Moreover all this happening in a vacuum and western countries have increasingly fallen back into passiveness and they are again beginning to discuss red lines. The Germans, The French and The Americans are discussing the transfer of western main tanks to the Ukrainians. Russian mobilization only strengthens western sentiments to help Ukraine. Perhaps it can be seen that American Abrams Tanks, French Leclercs and German Leopard Tanks will be come out in Ukraine in this winter. Kyiv Administration itself may also respond with its own next round of mobilization which unlike Russia’s will have more knowledge in battle zone. After recent reports of Moscow –Kyiv prisoner of war exchange mediated by Ankara and more than 200 Ukrainian prisoners of war including commanders of Azov Regiment were exchanged for among others forner pro-russian politician Victor Medvedchuk. The move was met with fury by Russian nationalists  who were promised death penalties for Azov Regiment members.   

Oksana Marchenko, the wife of detained Ukrainian opposition politician Viktor Medvedchuk, has appealed to Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to facilitate the release of her husband detained by Ukrainian special services.

It was after all the allegedly Nazi members of Azov Regiment that embodied the threat which was one of the main reasons for launching the special military operation the so called denasification of Ukraine. Ahead of the mobilization decision, Kremlin has decided to fast track the subject of annexation of the occupied territories which is to precede the holding of sham referendums at Russian occupied territories those are Luhansk of which Moscow controls 99 percent, Kherson occupied in 90 percent, Zaporizhzhia is 70 percent under occupation and Donesk occupied in 55 percent.  

Ahead of the mobilization decision, Kremlin has decided to fast track the subject of annexation of the occupied territories which is to precede the holding of sham referendums at Russian occupied territories.

Russian President Vladimir Putin want to rise the stakes of attacks on these territories threatening that they will consider an attack on the territory of the Russian Federation. Furthermore many russian political scientists are not waiting for the results of the vote to present just this narrative in which nuclear threats are part of the picture. At this point, Ukrainians are reconciled to such a risk and reiterate that “it will not extinguish their spirit of  resistance but will actually reignite it.” On the other hand, for Kremlin’s point of view;  this would be the final nail in the coffin which is not necessarily because of Russian response to west but more because of the fury of its allies and collaborators namely China, India, Iran, Brazil or large parts of Africa where Russian Federation enjoys relatively greater esteem would quite change the approach to the Kremlin which can use weapons of ultimate destruction in offensive war. 

Conclusion

The use of nuclear weapons in offensive war over the conquest of another country would create condition of destabilization of international security system  that would result in the mass proliferation of nuclear weapons. All countries bordering nuclear powers would be willing to acqure them. Since this is the only form of defense against an aggressor that possesses nuclear Arsenal, Beijing or Delhi are certainly not interested in such a turn of events. European Union is also preparing another eighth package of sanctions however there is one more aspect of the economic war that has the potential to hit Moscow significantly. Moreover, chaos that is how in one word can be sum up quickly but the Kremlin’s communications and actions in recent times is referring to chaos at international security system in which Russian actions coming up with whole single operational direction collapses in a few days then suddenly there is a decision to hold sham plebiscides as soon as possible then having a decision to mobilize up to a million man something that was supposed to be a three day operation. Finally with mobilization decision President Putin is throwing his usable resource on the table that is human mass and the importance of Russia on international stage turns into fight for life as survival state before being collapsed not for President Vladimir Putin but for the entire Russian project.