What is the Outcome of the Biden-Xi Meeting?

Xi and Biden Had a Warm Meeting

Last Monday, US President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping held a face-to-face meeting on the sidelines of the G-20 Summit in Bali. Both leaders took the opportunity to express their openness to re-establishing channels of communication between their administrations and repairing the China-US relationship, which has been likened to a second Cold War. In this important meeting, Xi and Biden touched on the Russia-Ukraine War, the Taiwan Strait, North Korea's missile tests and shared their views and expectations.

This highly anticipated meeting lasted about three hours. Biden described the meeting as "very frank with each other", while Xi described it as "in-depth, candid and constructive". In their opening remarks, Biden and Xi said they were looking for ways to coexist despite their differences. The leaders, both of whom have served as vice presidents of their countries, had held numerous bilateral meetings together more than a decade ago and thus had the chance to get to know each other well. As a result, the two leaders, who knew each other well, faced each other years later, this time as the first, not the second, men of their countries. The meeting in Bali was also an indication of their long-standing friendship. The two leaders immediately started the meeting with warm greetings and gave a message of friendship to the whole world by referring to their common past and the long relationship between them. 

In his statement after the meeting, Biden said, "Do I believe that Xi is willing to compromise on some issues? Yes!", showing that he trusted Xi. Apparently, Biden and Xi succeeded in holding the meeting in a cordial atmosphere by being frank with each other on the points they disagreed on.

According to analysts, the fact that this meeting took place after both leaders strengthened their political positions in their respective countries allowed them to reflect their countries' positions to each other in a decisive manner.

The meeting was very important for Asian countries

When Biden and Xi met in Bali, the rest of Asia watched them closely. Biden's modest success in the midterm elections put him in a strong position to steer Washington's relationship with Beijing. Xi, too, represented China after securing a third term as president, in some ways the second most powerful president after Mao. Having further consolidated his power in the Chinese system, Xi has opened a space for himself in foreign policy. Thus, Xi became determined and eager to stabilize bilateral relations with Biden.

On August 4, Speaker of the House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan, causing a cold wind to blow between Beijing and Washington and freezing climate negotiations. This visit, which was read as an attitude against the "One China" policy, was also reflected in the military exercises conducted by the Xi administration around Taiwan at the time. In fact, Chinese military helicopters flew over Pingtan Island, one of the closest points on the Chinese mainland to Taiwan, to show off their military prowess. Now the frozen climate negotiations are resuming. Under this heading, the American and Chinese sides have decided to resume high-level talks.

No one expects that the problems between the parties will be solved in an instant. However, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken will visit China in early 2023, in line with the decision taken at the Xi-Biden meeting.

Taiwan, technology and human rights remain areas of intense dispute

China-US tensions were also reflected in the field of technology. Last month, the US imposed a significant export ban on some advanced semiconductor technologies. This was read by China as an indirect trade sanction. The US move was also seen by China as a deliberate American effort to disrupt advances in military technology using these semiconductors, modernization activities and progress in critical technology areas such as artificial intelligence.

During the meeting, Biden expressed his concerns about China's human rights violations in East Turkestan, Tibet and Hong Kong. This issue, which is seen as 'internal affairs' by China, leads to a closed attitude towards 'foreign intervention'. Nevertheless, I consider it a good development that the American President brought human rights violations to the table and reminded China's highest authority that our Uighur compatriots in East Turkistan have the right to live in better conditions.

On Taiwan, despite intense media speculation about Beijing's intentions, Biden said that he "does not think China has an imminent attempt to invade Taiwan". Nevertheless, during the meeting, Biden felt the need to remind Xi that he disapproved of Beijing's "coercive and increasingly aggressive" actions in the waters around Taiwan. Washington sees China's military activities around Taiwan as hindering and undermining the establishment of peace and stability in and around the Taiwan Strait and potentially disrupting global trade.

On the other hand, China considers that there is no 'Taiwan issue' for it, that it is only a domestic matter and wants to act accordingly. In any case, the Taiwan issue is at the center of China's core interests and is seen as a red line that should not be crossed in China-US relations.

While it is important for Biden to emphasize that the US policy on Taiwan has not changed, it also indicates that the tension in Taiwan will not end easily.

After decades of focusing on the Middle East, the US military is shifting to the Pacific

The Chinese and American militaries operate with the awareness that one wrong move could lead to a major war. However, the militaries of both sides have recently mobilized their regional capabilities in case a conflict over Taiwan breaks out. Washington is using the Taiwan issue as a lever to consolidate (unite) its allies in the region against China and to push for new military formations and defense pacts. The AUKUS, which was established between the US, the UK and Australia on September 16, 2021, continues to attract attention as a formation in this sense. Considering that Japan and New Zealand may soon be included in this formation, and that India and some Far East Asian countries may also become part of the AUKUS in the following period, the comments that the NATO of the East is being established are more understandable. If this trend continues, a "Second Cold War" between China and the US could indeed begin. 

Now, with the Xi-Biden meeting, we are entering a period of rising hopes that steps will be taken to halt this trend and create a warm wind between the parties. After decades of concentrating its war power in the Middle East, the US has been shifting its focus to Asia in recent years. If this strategic shift in the American global paradigm tends to slow down after the Xi-Biden meeting, we can say that it was a successful meeting for both presidents.

What Do the Two Leaders Think about Ukraine and North Korea?

On February 24, 2022, Putin's attempt to invade Ukraine is still ongoing. The US naturally does not accept this invasion attempt and continues to provide arms support to Ukraine. At the same time, the American side expects China to squeeze Moscow, take sides and, if possible, support Western sanctions against Russia. Beijing, which has no interest in the outbreak of this war, is nevertheless not ready to take a stand against the Russians and is cold to American expectations.

Happily, both leaders emphasized during the meeting that a nuclear war must never be fought and can never be won. At the end of September, Putin raised the possibility of using tactical nuclear weapons. Xi and Biden do not agree with the Russian threat to use tactical nuclear weapons for 'defensive' purposes if necessary. They underlined their opposition to the use of nuclear weapons. 

In the context of North Korea, Biden urged Beijing to rein in Pyongyang's arms ambitions. He warned that if China fails to do so, the US will increase its presence in the region. On the other hand, the growing American presence in the region is also perceived by Beijing as a threat to its own security. Although this issue is clearly understood by the two leaders, it is not clear how to proceed.

Last year, at a time when tensions between the two sides were at their peak, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi outlined three key demands that he wanted the US to accept in order to improve relations: 

- Not to hinder China's development, 

- Respecting China's 'One China' policy on Taiwan,

- Respect for Beijing's Communist Party leadership.

From Beijing's point of view, the US has since done the opposite in every respect. It has imposed export bans on semiconductors, hampering China's development. It has sanctioned some of China's leading technology firms.

Conclusion

All in all, the Xi-Biden meeting should be seen as an important step in opening the channel of communication between the parties at the highest level. No one expected any major solutions to come out of it. However, the fact that the two leaders showed a common will to maintain regular contact and said that they would support the possibility of diplomatic talks between Washington and Beijing at all levels gave hope that the world would not enter a second Cold War. Having invested in tensions with China in the first two years of his presidency, Biden is not expected to make major changes in his last two years. Nevertheless, the fact that the two leaders sincerely showed the world that they could 'meet' by 2024 makes us interpret the Xi-Biden meeting at the G-20 Summit in Bali as a very important step.