Who Started the Russia-Ukraine War?

Russians Attack:

The Russian army crossed the border on the night of 23-24 February and entered the territory of Ukraine. In coordination with this ground attack, the Russian air force and artillery/missile units attacked the military and economic infrastructure of Ukraine.

This attack was announced by Putin as "they launched a special operation against the Donbass region". In his statement, Putin said, “Ukrainian soldiers must lay down their weapons. In the event of outside interference, we will respond immediately. Ukraine is responsible for every spilled blood.” 

After the Russian attack, the Ukrainian Foreign Minister said, “Putin launched an all-out war against Ukraine. Ukraine will defend itself and win. The world can and should stop Putin. It is time to act.” said. Addressing the Russian people, Zelensky said: “Your army is standing on the Russia-Ukraine border today. Putin told your army of almost two hundred thousand soldiers and thousands of military vehicles to enter our territory. This step could be the beginning of a great war in Europe.”

NATO's Response to War:

On the first day of the war, Ukrainian officials sought Western help against Russia, while NATO seemed to be concerned that the war would spread. The Secretary General said, “We have no plans to send troops to Ukraine, we are activating our defense plans so that the war does not spread to NATO territory. We call on Russia to immediately cease its military action, withdraw all forces in and around Ukraine, fully comply with international humanitarian law, and allow safe and unhindered humanitarian access and assistance to all in need. Russia will pay a very heavy economic and political price. NATO will continue to cooperate closely with relevant stakeholders and other international organisations, including the EU. NATO will continue to take all necessary measures to ensure the security and defense of the Allies. We are deploying additional ground and air forces as well as additional naval assets in the eastern part of the Alliance. We have increased the readiness of our forces to respond to all contingencies. Peace on our continent has been disturbed. There is war in Europe right now. NATO's main task is to protect and defend all allies. There is no room for miscalculations and misunderstandings. An attack on an ally will be considered an attack on the entire alliance.” made a statement.

The same concern about the spread of the war seemed to be present among the rulers of Russia. For this reason, they were making statements that they were ready to solve the problems through negotiations, although they were the aggressor. For example, the Kremlin spokesperson stated that they could meet with the Ukrainian administration under certain conditions, “These conditions are about the neutrality situation and the rejection of the deployment of weapons. Putin formulated his vision of what to expect from Ukraine to solve the problems that are our red line. These terms relate to the neutrality situation and the refusal to deploy weapons. The goals were defined by Putin as the disarmament and de-Nazism of Ukraine. Both pose a threat to our country and our people. The time frame will depend on results and progress and will be defined by Putin.” said.

While Russia Drops Bombs on Ukraine, It Leaves Negotiation Door Open:

Putin, on the other hand, is like children who know that what they did was wrong but tried to justify their crime by saying that they were obliged to do it, “They did not leave us a chance to act in a different way. Russia remains a part of the global economy and therefore we will not harm this system of which we feel part, as long as it remains part of it.” said.

After that, the parties started a propaganda war against their own and the world public opinion, accusing each other of causing war and harming civilians in the war, and expressing that they were ready to make peace. Zelenski, who could not get the de facto support he wanted from the West and was not yet sure whether he could cope with the Russian aggression, insistently called every day to sit at the peace table and solve the problems without the need for war.

Propaganda Wars:

Another practice made within the scope of propaganda was that the parties explained the casualties they inflicted on the other side every day. While Russia was talking about the damage it caused to Ukraine's military infrastructure and the air force, including Bayraktar SİHA, the explanations about the casualties that Ukraine claimed to have inflicted on the Russians were more detailed. It was announced daily how many soldiers, planes, helicopters, tanks and armored vehicles of Russia were neutralized.

On the first day of the war, it was not yet known how the Ukrainian army performed on the fronts. In fact, it wasn't even clear that there was a façade. It was understood that the Ukrainian army applied a concept that spread over the area rather than a defense based on the lines, and tried to wear out the Russian army at every stage by damaging it as much as it could. The places where the battles were most intense were the residential areas.

Conflicts Begin to Intensify in Civil Settlements:

When the battles became predominantly residential warfare, the civil administrators of the built-up areas began to come to the fore. All mayors, especially Kyiv, became concerned not only with the smooth running of their city's infrastructure, food supply, transport and health services, but also with its preparation and fortification for defense. The most important development of the first day, which disturbed the whole world, was the seizure of the Chernobyl nuclear power plant by the Russian army. Fortunately, there were no accidents at the power plant.

As the first day came to an end, the details of the operation and the comments and evaluations on these details began to be published in the press and media organs. According to these interpretations, the Russian operation was far beyond a limited-target hybrid warfare activity limited to separatist regions in eastern Ukraine. Ukraine was attacked from many axes. Looking at the overall operation, it was seen that it largely coincided with the plan that the British published on 17 February.

According to the statements of Russian officials, the political goal of the Russians was to seize critical regions of Ukraine and to change the government in Kiev. However, according to western commentators, the Russian army took action to realize the geopolitical thought emphasized in Putin's article dated July 2021, namely the irredendist policy that sees Belarus-Ukraine and Russia in political unity, by military means.

Military Dimension of War:

Looking at the operational dimension of the war, it was understood that the Russian General Staff had adopted an operational design based on high firepower. In this context, ballistic missiles and cruise missiles and multi-barreled rocket launcher (MLRA) systems were used intensively. The Russian Armed Forces appeared to be focusing heavily on Ukraine's critical military infrastructure, particularly airports and airbases. In addition, command and control centers, headquarters of important troops, radar infrastructure and air defense weapon systems were targeted.

It was considered that the purpose of the attack on airports and airbases was to keep the air power of Ukraine on the ground by rendering the runways unusable, and to cut off the connection of the Ukrainian administration with the outside world. Another purpose of using high firepower and shifting the fire to the residential areas with important units was to break the morale motivation of the army and break its strength.

Already before the war, messages were sent to the mobile phones of the Ukrainian Armed Forces personnel that Russia would invade the country and that they should not resist. It was alleged that Russian electronic warfare systems capable of interfering in the GSM network were used in the mentioned psychological warfare activity.

Development of the Operation

A significant part of the Russian ground forces, which entered Ukraine in coordination with intense aerial bombardment and artillery/missile fires, had departed from Belarusian territory. The data showed that many heavy weapons, including the Thermobaric MLRA, were also on the move in the Belarusian sector.

Another region attacked by the Russian army was the Kharkiv region. The troops here had set up checkpoints to blockade the city centre. Kharkiv is in a key position for Ukraine's railway infrastructure. The attempt to seize the said settlement at the very beginning of the conflict was a serious indication that the occupation would deepen.

Another indication that the invasion could be deepened was the fact that the Russian National Guard, a specialized unit to counter uprisings, was included in the mass on a broad front. The airborne unit, the VDV, was the unit with the highest combat capability in the Russian army and was not included in the combat establishment of any force.

On the southern front, as a result of the attack of the troops in the Crimea, the Russians crossed the Dnieper River on the first day and took control of the Kherson region. The region in question was of strategic importance in terms of providing water to the Crimean Peninsula.

Russians Landing in Azov Region:

On February 25, as a result of the sea landing in the Azov region in the south of Ukraine, Russian military units entered the city of Melitopol. The Russians also captured the Zmeyny (Snake) Island off Odessa. But the advance of Russian troops near Konotop was stopped by the Ukrainian army. Russian troops advancing from the north were also stopped near Kharkiv, and new troops were shifted to Kiev against a possible attack.

As the Russians advanced on the ground, they continued to face more sanctions internationally. On February 26, Poland, the Czech Republic, Bulgaria, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Slovenia, Romania and the United Kingdom closed their airspace to Russia. In addition, European countries agreed to exclude Russia from SWIFT.

Since the media could not enter the conflict zones, information about the developments on the front could be learned from the statements made by the officials of the two sides and from the videos that the Ukrainian soldiers and volunteers who fought on the fronts took with their mobile phones and posted on social media.

Accordingly, Russian troops captured some settlements and airports in Kharkiv and Donbas regions, Bayraktar TB-2 unmanned aerial vehicles and Ukrainian pilots destroyed a train that brought fuel and ammunition to Russian troops, and Kyiv was bombarded throughout the night.

Russia announced that it would expand these bombings and military operations as Kyiv rejected the offer to negotiate. Kyiv replied that it did not reject armistice negotiations, only that it did not accept Moscow's ultimatum. Kyiv must be worried that the attacks will spread from the Black Sea coast to the Odessa region, because Zelenskiy met with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and said that it is very important to ban Russian warships from passing through the straits to the Black Sea.

Although there were comments that the Russians would bring Ukraine to its knees in a few days before the war, when the fourth day of the war entered, there was no development confirming this. However, those who still thought that the Russian army could reach its goals in the near future were in the majority. The statements of the Ukrainian president also showed that Ukraine was afraid of this. Because Zelensky, who is against holding the talks in Belarus, announced that on February 27, there will be a meeting with the Russian delegation on the Belarusian border, without preconditions.

Putin Raises the Use of Nuclear Weapons:

Putin, on the other hand, still does not doubt the success, but it was understood that he was worried about the aid to Ukraine and the statements made by NATO. For this reason, Putin put the nuclear weapons card on the table in order to increase his country's deterrence and announced that he "ordered the nuclear deterrent forces to go into a special war situation due to the aggressive statements of NATO countries".

There were also signs that things didn't go as planned. For example, Russian forces captured the Berdyansk Port in the Sea of ​​Azov at night and advanced 52 kilometers in the Kharkiv region, but the Ukrainian army pushed back the Russian troops that entered Kharkiv. Ukraine was also trying to put pressure on Russia in the international arena. In this context, he filed a lawsuit against Russia at the UN International Court of Justice in The Hague.

On February 28, Zelensky signed Ukraine's application for a certificate of membership to the European Union. Negotiations with Russia were also continued, but no results could be obtained from the negotiations. Some countries, such as France, were also negotiating with Russia to end the war, but these talks did not yield any results due to Russian demands. For example, in a phone call with French President Macron, Putin suggested recognizing Russia's sovereignty over Crimea, demilitarizing Ukraine, and granting neutrality status to Ukraine to end the war.

Russian Attacks Continue Uninterrupted:

Looking at the military operation; Although Russia was also attacking from the north, it was understood that the area that gave importance to the region was the Azov Sea area. They were trying to dominate all Azov coasts by uniting the regions dominated by the governments established in Crimea and Donbas. In this context, on March 1, Russian forces took control of all public buildings in the port city of Berdyansk, and the Russian Ministry of Defense said that Ukraine no longer has access to the Sea of ​​Azov.

But in other regions, things didn't seem to be going well for the Russians. On March 2, the Ukrainian army secured its positions, liberating the town of Makariv in the Kyiv region from Russian invaders. Russian mechanized troops attempted to attack from the northeastern and northern parts of Kharkiv city, but were repulsed.

The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces are trying to advance towards Kiev from the north and northwest. Russian troops to Kiev had entered Ukraine by crossing the border between Ukraine, Russia and Belarus at Senkivka. Russian soldiers were advancing from the north towards the capital, Kiev. The progress of the Russian vehicles, which formed a convoy about 65 kilometers north of the city, was hampered by the deteriorated vehicles. Some Russian armored units were advancing towards Chernihiv. A second and faster advance came via Chernobyl west of the Dnieper River. He took control of a large area to the north and west of Kiev.

On March 2, clashes intensified in other regions as well. A Russian parachute unit has landed in Kharkiv. Clashes intensified around Sumi. The mayor of Mariupol announced that Russian troops surrounded the city. The Russians were trying to create a land bridge between the Crimea and Donetsk and Luhansk, thanks to an eastward advance from Mariupol.

Status as of March 2, 2022:

The Russian air force was also attacking different cities of Ukraine and its military units at the front. Understanding the negative consequences of air superiority in Russia, Ukraine called on the international community to close Ukrainian airspace and, if this could not be done, send planes to Ukraine.

(To be continued)