Why is there no calm in Kosovo? How to Understand the Kosovo Crisis?

Introduction 

93 years after the Ottoman Empire withdrew from the Balkans in 1912 and only the Thracian part remained in the hands of the Turks, the fact that there is still a conflict environment in the region is important in terms of revealing how sensitive the ethnic structure is in the region. The Balkan nations, which separated from the Ottoman Empire at the end of a process of nearly a hundred years, have not hesitated to fight throughout history, claiming that every piece of land is where their ancestors lived in the past.  It is a well-known fact that the conflicts in the Balkans and the still unsettled ethnic structures generally originate from the region called the former Yugoslavia.   

Seeing every war as a means of expanding their territories, the Balkan states expanded their borders by taking territory from the Ottoman Empire, especially after the Balkan War. However, at the end of each war, different results were encountered than expected, and each treaty sowed new seeds of disagreement for the future. For example, the treaty reached after the First Balkan War was not adhered to and the Second Balkan War took place.  Again, Bulgaria, which was not satisfied with the results of the Balkan War, saw the First World War as a means of expanding its territory.  Knowing this desire, the Great Powers promised it territory at the end of the war and made it enter the war.  Similarly, the excessive ambitions of Serbia, which could not digest the cession of today's Bosnia and Herzegovina to Austria-Hungary with the Berlin Treaty of 1878, sparked the outbreak of the First World War. 

Ideas aiming to unite the Slavic race in the Balkans had been in existence since the Middle Ages.  In the 21st century, the former state of Yugoslavia, which is the source of the ethnic conflicts in the Balkans, was actually a joint monarchical kingdom created after the First World War by Serbia, Slovenia and Croatia, who realized that they could not protect their territories against the threat posed by Fascist Mussolini's Italy and Nazi Germany. These states, which came together as a result of the threat posed by Italy and Germany after the First World War, were occupied by Germany in the Second World War. Against this occupation, Tito, who received Stalinist-type Marxist education in the Soviet Union, influenced the masses and became the leader of the resistance against the occupation. At the end of the war, he established the Federal People's Republic of Yugoslavia based on Slavic unity, taking advantage of the power of the resistance on the society and the existence of the communist party in the country. However, after his death, Milosevic, who came to power in 1987, began to pursue policies that emphasized Serbian nationalism against other federal states on the grounds that Tito had pushed Serbian nationalism to the background. In reality, it was during the Tito period that Bosnia and Herzegovina was recognized as a separate nation and gained some privileges. 

In 1989, the unification of the two Germanies and the subsequent collapse of the communist regimes led to the end of the Cold War era and thus the dissolution of the Eastern Bloc. The collapse of the socialist system of thought that held the Eastern Bloc together led to the weakening of the socialist doctrine that united Yugoslavia through the communist party, followed by an increase in nationalist movements and the separation of federal states from Yugoslavia.  

With the Milosevic era, Serbian nationalism became qualitatively active in the society and it started to be claimed that the territories belonging to other federal states actually belonged to Serbs. In fact, on the 600th anniversary of the Battle of Kosovo (in 1989), a ceremony was organized in front of the monument erected in the area near Pristina where the battle took place (in the name of the Serb who was said to have killed Sultan Murat I) with the participation of one million people from Serbia. The purpose of this ceremony was to show the Kosovo Albanians that Kosovo belonged to the Serbs and that six centuries after the defeat the region remained under Serbian rule. Indeed, the loss of the Battle of Kosovo resulted in the collapse of the Serbian state and the domination of the Ottoman Empire for 500 years (Serbs claim that the Turks did not lose the battle, but were defeated).  For centuries, Serbs have tried to keep the effects of the Battle of Kosovo on the Serbian nation alive through the Churches and strengthened the Serbian nationalist consciousness against the Ottoman Empire during the uprising period. According to them, no war in the history of the world has created such a national consciousness as the Battle of Kosovo. In fact, it is difficult to find another example of a nation that was as successful as the Serbs in creating a national consciousness from a lost war.

As Yugoslavia began to disintegrate, Serbian leader Milosevic tried to prevent the breakup by using military force. This use of force, which occurred nearly three decades ago, led to the bloodiest ethnic cleansing in recent European history. The West initially remained silent in the face of Serbian atrocities against an unprotected civilian population, but when the scale of the atrocities spread around the world through the media, Western states, led by the United States, were forced to intervene in the war. For the first time since its establishment, NATO assumed responsibility for an operation and coordinated the US-led intervention. This intervention also provided an opportunity for NATO to restructure, which was considered to be dysfunctional with the end of the Cold War. 

Kosovo has a population of nearly two million, 90% of whom are Kosovars of Albanian origin. In addition, around 50 thousand Turks also live in Kosovo. The Serbian population is around one hundred thousand. Throughout the history of Kosovo, the population communities have been displaced or forced to relocate several times. The biggest contribution to the increase in the Albanian population in Kosovo was the occupation of Kosovo by the Austrian Hasburg Kingdom in 1690, during the one-year occupation of Kosovo, Serbian religious leaders and Serbs helped the occupation. After the Ottoman Empire recaptured the region, large numbers of Albanians were relocated from what is now Albania to Kosovo in order to balance the Serbian population. 

While the Serbs claim that Kosovo belongs to them, the Albanians, who make up the majority of the population, dream of a Greater Albania by uniting with the Albanian state.  In 1974, Kosovo revolted and Tito granted autonomy to Kosovo with great privileges.  Thanks to the 1974 autonomy, Turks were able to open their own schools and gain important gains, including learning their mother tongue.

In 1998, the Serbs responded to the Albanian Kosovars' desire for independence by using military force in Kosovo and the autonomy granted in 1974 was shelved. In 1998, the massacres committed by the Serbs in Kosovo caused concern in the West, especially in the US, that there would be a new Bosnian massacre. The Serbian occupation was ended with a NATO-led air campaign against Serbia in March 1999. Serbia withdrew its troops from Kosovo on the condition that Kosovo remained within Serbian territory. With UN Resolution 1244, the Serbian state, then Yugoslavia, accepted the transfer of Kosovo administration to the UN, the establishment of an interim administration to govern Kosovo and the deployment of an international force led by NATO in the region.  

Since 1999, Kosovo has been governed by a UN-controlled interim administration and an international NATO force has been providing security in the region.  The UN Interim Administration's plan that the future of Kosovo could be determined through negotiations once the people of Kosovo were capable of self-government was accepted by the Kosovars. By March 2004, the expectations for the future of Kosovo had not materialized, and Kosovo Albanians rioted after the murder of Kosovo Albanian children in the northern Kosovo town of Mitrovica, attacking Orthodox churches and other Christian historical monuments, as well as the homes of Kosovo Serbs. The aim of this attack was to force Serbs to migrate from the region. This uprising, especially the attack on Christian historical monuments and churches, led to a change of attitude towards the Kosovo Albanians among the peacekeepers, most of whom belonged to the Christian religion, who had come to protect them from the Serbs.  

Kai Eide, a Swedish diplomat appointed by the UN Secretary-General, was asked by the UN Secretary-General to inspect Kosovo and prepare a report by September 2005. The report was presented to the Security Council in Kosovo in early October 2005. The report recommended that in the six years of UN-controlled administration of Kosovo, public institutions, especially the legislature, judiciary and executive, had been established from the central government to the local level, that public services had begun to be provided to the people on a Kosovo basis, and that final negotiations on the future of the country should be initiated, even if Kosovo was not at the desired level of capacity and ability to govern itself. 

Declaration of Independence and Aftermath

These international negotiations shaped the international environment for Kosovo's independence. Kosovo, under the temporary administration of the UN, declared its independence on February 12, 2008 with the support of major European states such as the United States, the United Kingdom and Germany. However, this declaration of independence was not accepted by the whole world. Some states, including Serbia, Russia and China, opposed it. Due to the opposition of China and Russia, Kosovo is still not a member of the UN. A total of 99 out of 193 United Nations countries have recognized Kosovo's independence, including the US, the UK and 22 of the 27 EU countries. Turkey was among the first states to recognize Kosovo.  

Kosovo's declaration of independence also marked the end of the post-Cold War period of peaceful coexistence. Six months later, Russia invaded Georgia in August 2008. Citing Kosovo's declaration of independence as an example, Russia forced its occupied Abkhazia and South Ossetia to declare independence.  

In 2013, the EU signed an agreement with the heads of state of Kosovo and Serbia in order to unite the Balkans under the EU umbrella without any problems. In 2013, the EU granted the Serbs living in the Serb-majority Mitrovica region a broad autonomy, defined as "more than autonomy but less than independence". This autonomy is the basis of today's problems. It is because of this broad autonomy that Serbs living in this region use Serbian identity cards and license plates. Moreover, the fact that the Serbs living in Mitrovica have not been granted broad rights since the 1999 NATO operation has been recognized by the international UN administration, NATO and the EU. 

The series of incidents between the Kosovo Government and the Serbs with autonomous status in northern Kosovo, which started on July 31, 2022, seems to have partially stopped with the intervention of the US and NATO task force in Kosovo. At the root of the incident is the right of Kosovo Serbs to use license plates belonging to the State of Serbia.  When Kosovo unilaterally declared independence in 2008, Kosovo Serbs and Serbia reacted strongly to this decision. In order to mitigate the reaction of Kosovo Serbs to independence, the Kosovo Government accepted their request to use the Serbian license plate system in 2011 and extended it for another five years in 2016.  The aim was to ensure that the Kosovo Serbs' license plate system and identity information were adapted to the Kosovo government system. The current Kosovo Prime Minister Albin Kurti criticizes the autonomy granted in 2013 on the grounds that it would create a "state within a state" for Serbs in northern Kosovo. Serbia, in turn, accuses Kosovo of violating the 2013 Brussels Agreement granting autonomy to Kosovo Serbs.  

Expiring in 2021, this agreement was extended by one year with the favorable approach of the Kosovo side. However, in July 2022, Serbia reacted very strongly after Kosovo Prime Minister Albin Kurdi announced that the Serbian minority living in northern Kosovo would not allow the Serbian state-owned vehicle license plate system and that Serbian citizens entering Kosovo would receive entry and exit documents. With the support of Serbia, Kosovo Serbs set up roadblocks in northern Kosovo, preventing Kosovo forces from accessing the region. As a result of negotiations, these roadblocks were removed at the end of the summer. However, events escalated again in November 2022 against the Kosovo government's desire to establish its sovereignty over the whole of Kosovo, i.e. to revoke the Kosovo Serbs' license plate and identity privileges. Against the decisions of the Kosovo Government, Serb officials in the Kosovo government resigned from their posts.  Also on December 10, in Mitrovica, in northern Kosovo, roadblocks were set up to prevent the Kosovo police force and Serbs from crossing into the area.  The Serbian President's request to the Kosovo Force for the deployment of up to a thousand Serbian soldiers and police forces in Kosovo, as well as his statements that he could intervene in the crisis with the army if necessary, increased the possibility of the crisis turning into a war.  

With the intervention of the United States and the European Union and the Kosovo Government's statements that the use of Serbian license plates could be extended, the barricades were removed on December 30.  Under the agreement, Kosovo would abandon its plan to fine owners of Serbian-issued license plates and Serbia would stop registering vehicles with the initials of cities in Kosovo. For the time being, the crisis has not been conclusively resolved, but has been postponed for the future.

Overall Assessment

In Kosovo's case, despite declaring independence in 2008, it has not been able to establish state power in the Serb-inhabited region of northern Kosovo. Moreover, with the 2013 agreement between the EU and Serbia, Serbs living in northern Kosovo were granted a broad autonomy, described as "more than autonomy but less than independence". Kosovo's Albanian majority aspires for unification with Albania, with the ideal of a greater Albania. The current Albanian Prime Minister, Albin Kurdi, who as a student leader in 2005 called for the withdrawal of all foreign forces from Kosovo, including NATO, is an extreme nationalist today. However, the Kosovo state's ability to defend itself against any external aggressor is limited in terms of population, economy and military power. Therefore, it needs external support. Moreover, half of the states still do not recognize Kosovo and it is not a UN member state. For this reason, it is important for them to be in harmony with the international community and to be part of the Western political and military structures without succumbing to extreme nationalist currents. Its application for EU membership on December 14, 2022 is an important step in this context. Furthermore, Kosovo should become a member of the EU before Serbia becomes a member of the EU, or put forward the condition of becoming a member together.  

Kosovo Serbs, on the other hand, oppose the existence of an independent Kosovo state and see the entire region as part of the Serbian state. This is because they see Kosovo as the place where their national selfhood was formed. It is clear that the unification of Kosovo with Albania, which Serbs consider the center of their medieval civilization, would lead to a bloody war in the Balkans. 

Serbia has been squeezed into a very small piece of territory in the aftermath of the breakup of Yugoslavia, and Serbs live with different status in Bosnia-Herzegovina, Kosovo and other independent states. It seems difficult for the treaties that ended the war to provide a lasting peace in the region. This is because different ethnic elements live in each state established after the dissolution of Yugoslavia, which may lead to future crises. In order to prevent the emergence of crises, the international community, led by the West, intends to maintain a military presence in the region. This is why EU forces are still present in Bosnia-Herzegovina and NATO forces in Kosovo.  

Moreover, by using the EU accession process, the EU seems to have so far succeeded in peacefully resolving potential crises in the Balkans. In this process, Serbia has been an EU candidate country since 2012. Kosovo applied for candidacy for EU membership on December 14, 2022. 

Russia's relative weakness in the post-1990 period has made the West more comfortable in resolving the crises in the Balkans. Thus, the process after the breakup of Yugoslavia was tried to be resolved peacefully without causing bigger conflicts and without spilling out of the Balkans. However, the post-Russia-Ukraine war tension between the West and Russia, which almost led to war, could be resolved differently with Russia's intervention in a possible crisis in the Balkans.  Serbia, the biggest protector of the former Yugoslavia, is still not a close partner of Russia and not an admirer of Western hegemony in the region. This is because the Serbs have a very close relationship with their historical ally Russia. It is clear that Russia, which is at war with Ukraine, will approach the crises in that region very differently from the past in order to draw Western attention to the Balkans. Obviously, the possibility of Russia provoking Serbia to attack Kosovo should not be ignored.

Turkey's Situation

In the post-1990 crises in the Balkans, Turkey acted in harmony with the West while protecting its own interests and the rights of the Muslim and Turkish population in the region. 

It participated in the NATO operation in 1999 after the Serbian invasion of Kosovo and offered temporary shelter to Kosovo Albanians who were expelled from its territory. It contributed to the post-war peacekeeping force and still has a battalion-sized force providing peacekeeping support in the region. However, Turkey has avoided direct tensions with Serbia, given the cooperation established with Yugoslavia under Atatürk and Tito. 

Kosovo, which was part of the Ottoman Empire for five centuries, still has a Turkish population of about fifty thousand. Unfortunately, the rights granted to the Turkish minority during Yugoslavia have been taken away from the Turkish minority in Kosovo by the Kosovo Government. It is to guarantee all the rights of our compatriots remaining in Kosovo, including the right to education in their mother tongue, which were recognized in the past.  The right to education in the mother tongue was partially provided later on. 

Finally, it should be noted that the Ottoman Empire, which ruled this region for 500 years, did not leave permanent traces on other ethnic elements except Bosnians and Albanians. It is thought-provoking that the Ottomans did not have the model of adopting their own culture, considering that English was used as the official language in these countries after Britain colonized India and Pakistan and left the region. 

It is also thought-provoking that these lands, which were part of the Ottoman Empire until the Balkan War, could not be protected. The main process was the loss of the Balkan Wars. Both the war and these beautiful lands were lost due to reasons such as the division of the officers into political camps, the demobilization of eighty thousand trained soldiers very shortly before the war without obtaining sufficient intelligence, the participation in the war with untrained recruits, the fact that Serbia, which armed against the Ottomans, used the port of Thessaloniki, which was the territory of the Ottomans, while the Ottomans did not see this as intelligence information, and that the Ottoman Navy became almost dysfunctional by being locked in the Golden Horn for 33 years due to the fear that it would revolt.  

References:

Sertif Demir, "Kosovo, the last Conflict Area in the Balkans", Armed Forces Journal, Year 125, No 388, April 2006, 40-47" 

Mihailo S. Zekic, Will Putin bring war closer to Europe's heart?, December 28, 2022, https://www.thetrumpet.com/26671-could-war-erupt-in-kosovo