Will climate change lead to a water war?

Some climatologists and meteorologists argue that the earth has been in a natural cycle of warming and cooling for millions of years and that what is happening is a natural process. However, the majority of scientists are of the opinion that this natural process has been affected by human activities as a result of the industrial revolution that started in the 18th century. It is argued that this effect is mostly due to the increase in greenhouse gases, mainly carbon dioxide and methane, released into the atmosphere by the use of fossil fuels.

The increase in greenhouse gases in the atmosphere has been determined by measurements. In addition, studies and measurements have revealed that since the pre-industrial period, the average surface temperature in land regions has increased almost twice as fast as the global average surface temperature. 

These studies and the thesis on climate change led almost all countries in the world to sign the 1994 United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCC). The purpose of the UNFCC was explained as preventing dangerous human intervention in the climate system by controlling greenhouse gas emissions.

In this case, it can be said that the thesis that human activities have an impact on climate change is widely accepted both among scientists and by the governments of countries.

Consequences of climate change 

Studies carried out using various scenarios with models developed by experts reveal that climate change will generally result in an increase in the average temperature of the world and in the frequency, duration and severity of extreme meteorological events such as droughts, floods, storms and tornadoes. A rise in sea water level is also expected

Some experts define extreme meteorological events such as flash floods, floods and heat waves caused by changes in the precipitation regime as "climatic variability" in which climate change is in the background.

It is also argued that climate change may disrupt the ecological balance and create consequences that threaten water, energy, food and environmental security. For this reason, some countries recognise climate change as a national security threat.

For these reasons, it is also predicted that climate change will create negative economic, ecological, social and social consequences in regions where climate change will be experienced more intensely.

As a result, it is accepted that climate change will have many negative effects ranging from the decrease in agricultural production to the deterioration of human health and the occurrence of environmental disasters.

Is there a risk of a water war?

In the near future, there will be tensions between countries in the world over water. There may also be light intensity armed conflicts on this issue. However, I do not think that these tensions will escalate to the level of a violent and all-out water war. It is necessary to look very carefully at the events where a tension over water escalates rapidly and turns into a water war. It should be analysed whether this is a conflict over water or a war waged using water tensions. 

Water resources have become a strategic resource since the late 20th century. There are currently 286 transboundary water basins and more than 300 transboundary groundwater basins in the world. Sixty per cent of the world's clean water flows in these basins. Nearly half of the world's population lives in these potentially problematic basins. 

Growing population, increasing demand for food and water, and the negative impact of climate change on water resources will increase tensions between countries in Central America, Central and South Africa, Central Asia, Southeast Asia and the Middle East. In many of these regions, there are still physical water shortages and political tensions between countries. This situation and increasing pressure on transboundary water resources could threaten peace and stability in these regions, which depend on water from outside the country. Water resources can be used as a tool for turmoil and instability created by the international system in these regions. 

In 2050, 70 per cent of the world's population will live in cities. Therefore, there is a threat that in the future tensions over water will be more likely to arise between cities or states within countries than between countries. This threat is also increased by increasing water transfers between basins. 

What will the Water War solve? 

Historically, water has been used both as a cause of war and as a weapon of war. The security concept of the cold war period in the 20th century has changed. In the 21st century, the number of transboundary water basins has increased and the relationship of water security with energy, food and environmental security has also increased. These security issues are recognised as national security issues for many countries. For this reason, especially in the transboundary water basins of developing countries, tensions are increasing with the effect of climate change. This situation may even turn into short-term hot conflicts as in Central Asia.  Water-related conflicts do not have a single cause alone. 

In regions where water resources are limited, there is always a risk of water-related conflicts. There will be water-related tensions in the future. There may even be a war. However, it is necessary to look very carefully whether it will be a war directly caused by water or a war caused by water tensions.

In addition, it is difficult to say that a water war has a serious and lasting aim to solve the water problem

Are international conventions enough?

Transboundary water basins cover 152 countries. About half of all rivers flow in these basins. This situation has mobilised the UN legal commission since the 1950s. In 1997 a convention on transboundary waters was adopted. Despite all the efforts of the UN Law Commission, in the 20th century no comprehensive international rules on transboundary waters, which determine the rights and obligations of the riparian states and which are applicable to all disputes, could be established. However, some legal principles and framework conventions applicable to this issue could be prepared

The 1997 UN Convention on Transboundary Waters was drafted with the international relations thinking of the 20th century, but it could only come into force in the new geopolitics and world order of the 21st century. It gained international validity in 2014 as a framework convention, but it has not been widely accepted internationally. The reason for this is that this convention has some deficiencies that need to be finalised. 

Turkey's transboundary waters 

Approximately 33% of Turkey's surface water originates from transboundary water basins and flows to neighbouring countries. A quarter of our land borders are also made up of rivers. Turkey is also the source country of the Tigris and Euphrates rivers, two major rivers flowing into the Middle East and the Arabian peninsula. This makes Turkey an important country in the management of transboundary waters. Turkey has faced many difficulties in developing the GAP in this region from downstream countries, but Turkey has never used its transboundary waters as an instrument of hegemony. Recent requests from Iraq for additional water releases have all been met. Turkey pursues a hydropolitics based on peace and co-operation regarding transboundary waters.