Will Turkey's future airspace be entrusted to the F-35 or the Eurofighter?

Many studies have been conducted and published comparing these two aircraft technically. However, I wrote this article with the idea of comparing the F-35 and the Eurofighter not only based on their technical characteristics but also by considering Turkey's strategic and geopolitical situation as a criterion for comparison.

As Turkey enters the second century of its republic and redefines its place on the geopolitical chessboard, the country's defence policies and military modernisation efforts are more critical than ever. At the heart of these efforts lies the future of the Turkish Air Force and the selection of the primary combat aircraft that will ensure air superiority over the next 40 years. Despite all modernisation efforts, avionics upgrades, and even Block 70 production, the F-16 fighter jets, which have optimised air-to-air and air-to-ground capabilities in a single airframe compared to their competitors, will begin to reach the end of their service life worldwide in the near future.

To emerge strongly from this process, two fundamental options have emerged for Turkey: the first is the US-made 5th generation F-35 Lightning II, and the second is the 4.5 generation Eurofighter Typhoon produced by a European consortium. In this article, I will analyse the pros and cons of these two platforms in technical detail, taking into account Turkey's potential external threats, NATO membership, the capabilities of its domestic defence industry and its current air force inventory, in order to determine which option is most suitable for Turkey.

Turkey's Strategic Horizon: Threats and Defence Policies

Turkey is located at the crossroads of some of the world's most unstable and dynamic regions, including the Black Sea, the Caucasus, the Middle East, and the Eastern Mediterranean. This unique geopolitical position offers the country significant opportunities, but also brings with it multifaceted and complex external threats.

Potential External Threats:

• Regional Instability and Proxy Wars: The civil wars and instability in our southern neighbours, Syria and Iraq, along with the presence of proxy groups and terrorist organisations, constitute the most urgent threats to Turkey. The power vacuums in these regions create a breeding ground for proxy wars by regional and global actors, directly threatening Turkey's national security and even its territorial integrity.
• Sovereignty Rights and Energy Competition in the Eastern Mediterranean: The discovery of rich hydrocarbon reserves in the Eastern Mediterranean has brought Turkey into conflict with Greece, the Greek Cypriot administration, Egypt and Israel. Disagreements over Exclusive Economic Zone boundaries and competition over energy transport routes are keeping tensions high in the region.
• Shifting Power Balances in the Black Sea: The Russia-Ukraine war has fundamentally shaken the security structure in the Black Sea. As the enforcer of the Montreux Straits Convention, Turkey faces the delicate task of maintaining balance among Black Sea littoral states and regional stability.
• Ongoing Disputes in the Aegean Sea: Chronic issues between Greece and Turkey over continental shelf, territorial waters, airspace, and the militarisation of islands periodically lead to military tensions between the two NATO allies.

Defence Policies and NATO Membership:

Turkey's defence policy is shaped in line with this multifaceted threat perception.

Within the framework of the national defence concept, deterrence, proactive defence and the development of a domestic and national defence industry are key priorities. NATO membership is one of the cornerstones of Turkey's defence policy. As the alliance's second largest army, Turkey plays a key role in the security of NATO's south-eastern flank.

The principle of collective defence, as stipulated in Article 5 of the NATO Treaty, provides an important security umbrella for Turkey, while Turkey actively participates in the Alliance's missions and operations. The decisions taken at the 2025 NATO Summit and the fact that the 2026 Summit will be held in Turkey underscore Turkey's strategic importance within the Alliance.

However, NATO's future and occasional tensions in transatlantic relations are pushing Turkey towards more autonomous and self-sufficient defence planning. The fact that NATO remained passive during some past tensions has caused Turkey to have doubts about NATO's future or its ability to be an effective power.

Turkish Air Force: Current Status and Future Vision

The Turkish Air Force is one of the strongest air forces in the region with its backbone consisting of F-16C/D fighter jets. These F-16s come in different variants, such as Block 30, 40, 50 and 50+, and have been modernised to improve their operational capabilities and extend their service life. The F-4E/2020 aircraft, despite being modernised, are gradually being phased out of service. Additionally, the Air Force inventory includes general-purpose bombs such as AIM-120, AIM-9, MK-82/84, as well as various laser- and GPS-guided munitions, and different variants of munitions like AGM-65, AGM-88, and SOM. Nearly all of these munitions are compatible with both F-35s and Eurofighters. However, Eurofighters also have the capability to use highly effective munitions with superior features such as Meteor and Taurus KepD350.

Technological Infrastructure and Domestic Production of Munitions:

The Turkish Air Force stands out not only for the number of its combat aircraft but also for its technological infrastructure. Command-and-control systems such as the Air Force Information System (HvBS), electronic warfare pods developed by ASELSAN, infrared targeting and navigation pods, radars, and communication systems enhance the effectiveness of the Air Force.

In recent years, Turkey has taken significant steps towards reducing its dependence on foreign munitions. Domestic and national munitions developed by ROKETSAN and TÜBİTAK-SAGE are adding strength to the Turkish Air Force:

• SOM (Stand-off Munition): This family of high-precision, long-range air-to-ground cruise missiles ensures the destruction of strategic targets with high accuracy without entering the range of enemy air defence systems.
• HGK (Precision Guidance Kit): These kits convert general-purpose bombs such as Mk82 and Mk84 into GPS-guided smart munitions, providing point strike capability.
• KGK (Winged Guidance Kit): When attached to general-purpose bombs, these kits extend their range to over 100 km, enabling area targets to be suppressed in a cost-effective manner.
• Gökdoğan and Bozdoğan: Developed by TÜBİTAK-SAGE, Turkey's first beyond-visual-range (BVR) air-to-air missiles have the potential to eliminate dependence on foreign sources for air superiority missions.
• MAM (Mini Smart Munition) Family: Used in UAVs such as Bayraktar TB2 and ANKA, these munitions can continue to play a game-changing role in asymmetric warfare and counter-terrorism.

This domestic production capacity provides Turkey with operational flexibility and emerges as an important factor in future fighter jet preferences. At this point, it does not seem possible to adapt domestic production systems to the F35s, which have aggressive boundaries in terms of technology transfer.

The Future Fighter for the Turkish Air Force: F-35 or Eurofighter?

This analysis should not be made by taking the F35 in one hand and the Eurofighter in the other. This analysis must take into account the current geopolitical situation, the Turkish Air Force's existing inventory and strategies. The selection of the aircraft to replace the F-16s is not just a weapons purchase, but also a decision that will shape Turkey's strategic direction and the future of its defence industry for at least the next 40 years.

Advantages of Lockheed Martin's F-35 Lightning II:

Stealth Feature: First and foremost, it should be remembered that the F35 is a 5th generation aircraft. In addition, the F35's biggest advantage is its very low radar cross section (RCS). This feature enables the aircraft to penetrate deep into enemy airspace undetected by enemy radars, strike strategic targets, and be the first to detect and engage in beyond visual range (BVR) missions. However, while this stealth capability is a significant advantage today, it remains uncertain whether it will remain a valid advantage in the coming years as new-generation radars, such as AESA radars, which are set to revolutionise radar technology, are developed.

Engine power: In terms of raw power and maximum thrust, the F-35's single engine outperforms the Eurofighter's twin engines. However, the Eurofighter's twin-engine design gives it a higher thrust-to-weight ratio and superior manoeuvrability and agility.

Sensor Fusion and Situational Awareness: Situational awareness is the most important concept for keeping pilots alive and successful, especially in large-scale operations and spontaneous combat situations involving dense air assets and air defence systems. One of the ways to increase situational awareness, which is one of the most important building blocks of piloting (perhaps the most important) and is gained through training and experience, is through supporting technologies such as AWACS (early warning aircraft), GCI, and Datalink (Link-16). Such supporting systems are now available in the air forces of most developed countries. In addition to these technologies, the F-35 provides the pilot with a 360-degree picture of the battlefield by combining data from numerous sensors located throughout the aircraft. This speeds up the pilot's decision-making process and increases their effectiveness.

NATO Compatibility and Network-Centric Warfare: The F-35 is designed as a ‘flying data centre.’ F-35s are at the centre of a network-centric warfare environment, continuously exchanging data with friendly air and ground platforms. This is a critical capability for NATO operations. To simplify the matter, if two F-35s located in different areas in the air detect an enemy echo, even if one F-35 is at an angle or distance where it cannot see the echo on its radar, it will still have information about the target it cannot see thanks to this network structure. This is another major step towards maximising situational awareness.

Disadvantages and obstacles for Turkey:

Geopolitical Crisis and Removal from the Programme: Turkey has been officially removed from the F-35 programme due to its procurement of the S-400 air defence system from Russia. This is the biggest political obstacle to the procurement of the F-35. Overcoming this obstacle requires the establishment of deep trust in Turkish-American relations. This may mean that Turkey will have to make new concessions.

High Operating Costs: The F-35 is a platform with high costs per flight hour and maintenance expenses, in addition to its purchase price. This means long-term additional costs for the Turkish Air Force, which has been flying the highly efficient F-16s for years, and for the defence budget.

Limited Range of Munitions: Despite being a large aircraft, the F-35 can carry a limited amount and variety of munitions compared to the Eurofighter.

Technology Transfer and Production Restrictions: Despite being a programme partner, Turkey's access to F-35 technology was limited. With its removal from the programme, uncertainties in this regard have increased further. The technology transfer crisis experienced in the past during Turkey's requests to purchase attack helicopters shows that the Turkish Armed Forces are quite sensitive on this issue.

Eurofighter Typhoon (T5): Proven Performance and Industrial Cooperation Opportunities

Advantages

Superior Air-to-Air Performance: Thanks to its twin-engine and canard+delta wing configuration, the Eurofighter has an exceptional thrust-to-weight ratio and manoeuvrability. It also has the ability to exceed the speed of sound without using an afterburner, known as supercruise. All these advantages make it a very dangerous opponent, especially in close air combat. In addition, the Eurofighter has a wider operational range than the F-35.

Wide and Diverse Munitions Range: The Eurofighter can carry long-range cruise missiles such as Storm Shadow and Taurus, as well as Meteor, which is considered the best in its class, giving it multi-role capabilities. In addition, many locally produced munitions can be adapted to the Eurofighter.

Industrial Cooperation and Technology Transfer Potential: Turkey could secure greater production, maintenance, and future modernisation project opportunities, as well as technology transfer, for its domestic defence industry firms through an agreement with the Eurofighter consortium (United Kingdom, Germany, Italy, Spain). This could also provide critical knowledge for Turkey's own National Combat Aircraft project, KAAN.

Overcoming Political Obstacles: Compared to the United States, which is a single authority, Turkey's political relations with the consortium countries, especially the United Kingdom, are progressing on a more constructive basis. Although Germany's reservations continue, it seems more likely that this obstacle can be overcome through diplomatic efforts than in the case of the F-35.

Disadvantages:

• Not Fifth Generation: The Eurofighter does not possess the same level of ‘stealth’ capability as the F-35. This could make it weaker against future integrated air defence systems. Unlike the F-35, the lack of internal weapon carriage capability, along with the fuselage design, canards, and delta wing structure, increases the RCS (radar cross-section) value.
• Sensor Fusion Capabilities: Although it does not have a sensor fusion architecture as advanced as the F-35, it attempts to compensate for this with its Captor-E AESA radar and advanced electronic warfare systems.

Conclusion and Evaluation: What Would Be a Rational Choice for Turkey?

As Turkey builds its air power for the next 40 years, it must consider both the ideal and the realistic.

Ideal Scenario: In an ideal world, a hybrid air power structure combining the F-35's stealth and network-centric warfare capabilities with the KAAN would be the most deterrent option for Turkey. The F-35 would serve as a ‘gate-crashing’ force deep into enemy airspace, neutralising enemy air defence systems, after which Eurofighters supported by KAAN and modernised F-16s would execute air superiority and multi-role missions.

A Realistic and Strategic Choice: However, the current geopolitical situation and Turkey's exclusion from the F-35 programme make this ideal scenario unlikely in the short to medium term. At this point, the Eurofighter emerges as a more rational and strategic option for Turkey.

The main reasons for this conclusion are as follows:

1. Accessibility: Political obstacles are more surmountable for the Eurofighter compared to the F-35, making it a feasible platform for Turkey.
2. Interim Solution: As the F-16 fleet ages and the National Combat Aircraft KAAN project reaches full maturity, a proven and high-performance 4.5-generation aircraft such as the Eurofighter will maintain the deterrence and combat capabilities of the Turkish Air Force at the highest level during this critical period.
3. Industrial and Technological Gains: Participation in the Eurofighter programme will provide the Turkish defence industry with valuable technological expertise and collaboration opportunities in areas critical to the KAAN project, such as engines, avionics, and system integration. Turkey's ability to integrate its own indigenous munitions (SOM, Gökdoğan, Bozdoğan, etc.) into the Eurofighter will further strengthen this option strategically.
4. Air Superiority-Focused Structure: The threats Turkey faces (particularly in the Aegean and Eastern Mediterranean) require a platform with high manoeuvrability and capable of carrying powerful air-to-air missiles. The Eurofighter is more ambitious than the F-35 in this area.

In conclusion, although the F-35 offers the revolutionary capabilities of 5th generation technology on paper, Turkey's current political and industrial realities make the Eurofighter a more sensible bridge solution. This choice will solidify Turkey's air superiority during its transition from F-16s to KAAN, strengthen its domestic defence industry, and enable the country to protect its multifaceted strategic interests. The future of Turkey's airspace is evolving towards a structure shaped by domestic and national will, strengthened by strategic partnerships, and the Eurofighter is poised to play a critical role in this evolution.