Will Ukraine, which received the first batch of F-16s, be able to fly these aircraft?

The announcement that Ukraine received the first batch of F-16 fighter jets on 4 August 2024 was announced by the country's president Zelensky. Zelensky expressed his gratitude to Denmark, the Netherlands and especially the United States for helping to procure the jets after an 18-month wait, noting that a significant number of additional jets are still needed. The arrival of the F-16s after months of waiting is seen as an important milestone for Ukraine. As part of the transition of the Ukrainian Air Force to Western standards, Ukrainians expect a lot from the integration process of the F-16s.

Previously relying on old Soviet-era fighter jets (older versions of the MiG-29 and Su-27), Ukraine's air force had succumbed to Russia's superior air fleet and was unable to defend the country's territory. Russia could not be prevented from launching extensive missile attacks on the entire Ukrainian territory and inflicting heavy casualties, especially on the eastern front, with air-to-ground attacks. Now, it is evaluated that an important step has been taken towards reaching an air power level that can at least intercept Russian aircraft and missiles with F-16s.

Does Ukraine Have Enough F-16 Pilots?

It is not known how many F-16 aircraft have been delivered to Ukraine in the first batch so far, except for the four aircraft seen in the F-16 welcoming ceremony. However, some sources indicate that 10 F-16s have been delivered. On the other hand, it is known that a total of 6 Ukrainian pilots have returned to their countries after completing their combat readiness training in F-16. In this case, the lack of trained pilots rather than the number of aircraft stands out as a problem that needs to be solved for Ukraine.

Currently, Ukrainian pilots are undergoing a phased combat readiness training in the UK, the USA, Denmark and Romania, depending on their flight experience. The European F-16 Training Centre (EFTC) at Fetesti Air Base in Romania was established to train Romanian and Ukrainian pilots, as well as pilots from other F-16 user countries. It is stated that about 18 F-16 aircraft belonging to the Royal Netherlands Air Force (RNLAF) are currently used in these trainings.

Can Ukraine make its F-16s take off from road runways like Su-27s?

It is rumoured that the Ukrainian Air Force is considering building underground shelters to make it difficult for Russian aircraft to target F-16s on the ground. Until the bunkers are ready, a more likely solution is to place the F-16s in concrete bunkers at existing air bases. On the other hand, the Ukrainian Air Force has been conducting its operations from motorways and airfields without shelters for a long time in order to have operational flexibility against Russian aircraft and to increase resistance to attacks.

Operating from relatively unprepared runways such as the Su-25 and Su-27 had emerged as an option for Ukraine in wartime conditions. However, it seems unlikely to continue such use of F-16 aircraft. First of all, the high suction power of the F-16s, which draws everything it sees on the ground into the engine, prevents the aircraft from operating from runways with unclean surfaces. In aviation, when foreign object damage (FOD) occurs, a piece of stone or a forgotten screw on the runway or apron that enters the engine can cause the engine to be disposed of and, in some cases, the loss of the aircraft. In this respect, F-16s are among the most sensitive aircraft against FOD risk. For this reason, the Ukrainian Air Force must be very careful in the use of F-16s.

What Can F-16s Do for Ukraine?

In the images published by the Ukrainian Air Force, it is seen that AIM-120 AMRAAM and AIM-9 Sidewinder air-to-air missiles are installed on the F-16s brought into inventory. Looking at this configuration, we can say that Ukrainian F-16s are ready to perform air defence missions.

Brigadier General Serhiy Golubtsov of the Ukrainian Air Force said in June that F-16 fighter jets were vital for optimising the performance of Western weapons delivered to Ukraine, but that they were not a panacea for achieving air superiority. The Ukrainian Brigadier General warned the people and politicians against unrealistic expectations and emphasised that it would be difficult to achieve air superiority with F-16s alone. No one can claim that only F-16s will change the course of the war.

However, over time, when F-16s are used in conjunction with other Western air assets, they can turn into a war machine that can make a leap in the combat capabilities of the Ukrainian Air Force. In addition, the modern munitions that can be fired from these aircraft will ease Ukraine's hand. The problems experienced by Soviet-era fighter jets, which were modified to use weapons donated by the West, such as JDAM (Joint Direct Attack Munition), AGM-88 HARM (High Speed Anti-Radiation Missile) and Storm Shadow/SCALP-EG ALCM (Air Launched Cruise Missile), are no longer a problem. Since the F-16s can use these weapons, it also paves the way for the Su-25, Su-27 and MiG-29 aircraft to be used more effectively in other operational missions.

The F-16s are expected to serve primarily as a defence shield against Russian drones and missiles that can cross the eastern front and hit targets inside Ukraine. General Oleksandr Syrskyi, Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, announced that the F-16s will initially fly no closer than 40 km to the front lines due to the risks posed by Russian air defences. Apparently, we will not see any F-16s in areas of high-intensity conflict, for example, when carrying out close air support.

However, judging by the statements, it seems that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky intends to use the limited number of F-16s at his disposal mainly for offensive purposes. He prefers to use them to launch air strikes on Russian positions. The F-16s can stay behind the Ukrainian lines and fire stand-off ammunition that has been added to the inventory. However, it is not yet known who and how will undertake the air defence of the small number of F-16s during these firing missions. Moreover, when the F-16s are on the ground, the biggest threat to the F-16s will be Russian unmanned aerial vehicles and/or cruise missiles. Ukraine also needs to take precautions against attacks by Russian aircraft against the air bases where the F-16s are located.

In the meantime, Ukraine may use the six aircraft it has for strikes against high-value point targets. Highly effective raid-style strikes can be carried out by F-16s against Russian strategic military bases, oil refineries, ports, missile and drone launchers, bombers and other targets of opportunity, but it would not be wise to send F-16s into the Russian depths, except for targets that are vital enough to endanger the aircraft.

Conclusion

The first batch of F-16 jets promised by the West arrived in Ukraine on the last day of July. Kiev expects 20 F-16s to be delivered by the end of 2024 and the remaining 45 F-16s to arrive in batches throughout 2025.

According to previous statements, the F-16AMs in the hands of the Netherlands were expected to be given to Ukraine. However, with a decision taken later, the Dutch F-16s were divided between Ukraine and Argentina. Thus, while the new pro-American President Millei, who won the elections in Argentina, was supported, Argentina's procurement of the joint China-Pakistan JF-17 fighter jets was prevented with 24 F-16s.

All in all, with a fleet of aircraft (20 aircraft) that Ukraine will have by the end of this year, no miracle results are expected for Kiev in the Russian-Ukrainian War. However, in addition to the air defence of Ukrainian territory, it has become easier for Ukraine to hit some strategic/critical targets on Russian territory if necessary . Zelensky can be expected to utilise this capability. Thus, Zelensky may have the opportunity to instil morale in his people with a limited number of F-16 attacks that will make a sound from time to time, as well as to tell Western capitals that if he is given modern weapons such as F-16s, he will have a high probability of winning this war.