What Happens If Everything Collapses - 1

It is a fact that we have very little knowledge about the world we live in. In fact, most of the time our reactions to events outside our immediate surroundings remain very limited. Where do we see ourselves in the ecological, economic, social and political system we call the world? How much do we understand the complexity of this gigantic system? How much are we aware of the effects of the melting of the polar ice caps, the increasingly rapid loss of life forms on earth, the decrease in biodiversity on our daily lives? Most importantly, are we aware of the limits of the life we have built on the planet in every dimension? The answers to these questions lead us to think about the possibility that the system established on Earth may one day collapse.

In this article, I will try to introduce a rather disturbing book to you, and I will also include my own comments. First published in 2015 by P. Servigne and R. Stevens, and published by Türkiye İş Bankası Kültür Yayınları in October 2024, ‘How Can Everything Collapse?’ (1) is a book that warns about an impending catastrophe, mixed with anxiety. In doing so, it makes a methodological choice based on complexity theory. The most difficult part of a book review is to select what is deemed important from the topics covered. However, subjective preferences may come to the fore here, even if it is not desired. Nevertheless, I do not consider myself barred in this regard.

Complexity theory states that an increase in the complexity of a system increases the interdependence between the parts of the system. The increase in the level of complexity leads to the unpredictability of the results of the movement of the system in a certain period of time with the phenomenon of ‘sensitive dependence on the initial state’. Ecological, economic and social systems can be given as examples of non-linear (dynamic) systems in which the level of complexity tends to increase continuously. Crises refer to the period of time when unexpected effects occur in these systems. The system either emerges from the crisis with its own dynamics or evolves into chaos. Chaos is a stage in which uncertainty increases, a break from the old order is realised, and it is no longer possible for the system to continue with the dynamics that determine the old structure. Either a new order is established or collapse occurs.

In the book, the word collapse is defined as ‘a process in which basic needs (water, food, shelter, clothing, energy, etc.) cannot be supplied (at reasonable prices) to the vast majority of the population by services controlled by law’. On the way to this process, there are many developments such as climate change, decrease in biodiversity, increase in social and geopolitical risks due to tensions. In the reports of countries, institutions, banks, NGOs and armed forces, it is impossible to conceal the increasing risks. The possibility of a sudden collapse of the entire global system is no longer inevitable, let alone imminent.

It can be argued that the lack of any scientific basis for the collapse (such as the Mayan calendar) has prevented a scientific public debate on the subject. For the most part, public opinion tends to be divided into ‘disaster alarmists’ and ‘insensitive people’. It is even possible to say that the current media system is content with this. However, discussions in the scientific field are witnessing the birth of ‘collapsology’ as an interdisciplinary field of study.

In mathematics, an exponential function goes on forever. In the real world, however, there is a limit, and in ecology this is called the ‘carrying capacity of the ecosystem’. The world population, which has doubled approximately every thousand years for the last eight thousand years, has doubled in just one hundred years. A person born in the 1930s witnessed the population increase from 2 billion to 7 billion. In the 20th century, energy consumption has increased tenfold and the extraction of industrial minerals 34 times. Although it is not possible to exceedlimits due to the laws of thermodynamics,boundaries can be exceeded, but as in the case of a car exceeding speed limits, the system produces instability and we do not realise this until we have an accident. Exceeding the limits increases the risks, but no one realises it.

The increasing need for energy in the world has increased the demand for fossil fuels and the costs of limited resources have tended to increase rapidly. In the 1960s, six barrels were produced for every one barrel of oil used, whereas today (despite more efficient technology) this figure is one barrel for every seven barrels produced. Shale gas, which is seen as an alternative to oil, is not as low cost as thought. In the US, 127 companies using shale oil and gas ran a deficit of $106 billion in the 2013-2014 fiscal year. In this environment, the FED's decision to allow oil companies to borrow at low interest rates in order to artificially inflate US growth has created a great risk for the US and the world economy.

It is predicted that without oil, all energy systems, including renewable energy systems and nuclear energy, will collapse. This is because wind and solar energy are not independent from the fossil fuel system. Energy return on investment (EROI) figures show that solar and wind energy is not as cheap as it is thought to be. Considering the limitation of oil resources, we are faced with the fact that we are facing a thermodynamic wall that is approaching at a great speed. It should not be forgotten that energy prices increased and energy crises were experienced before economic crises. Today, energy prices, if we do not take short-term fluctuations into account, tend to rise continuously.

In its fifth report, the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), whose predictions on global temperature changes have been accurate, states that the conditions limiting warming to +2 degrees in 2050 have been exceeded and that a temperature increase of +4.8 degrees can be reached in 2100 (compared to the period between 1986-2005). Considering that even a +2 degree increase in average temperature triggers war and drought risks, it is predicted that many deltas will become unfavourable for agriculture, many species will disappear, and food crises will be triggered. Many countries are working on self-sufficiency in agricultural policies according to this scenario in future projections. I think that the recent Greenland exit of the USA should also be evaluated from this perspective.

In order to explain the magnitude of the changes to be experienced, we need to give the following example. 10,000 years ago, when the world entered the ice age, the average temperature was 5 degrees lower than today and the level of the oceans was 120 metres lower than today. British scientist and environmentalist J. Loverlock states that if_{the CO2 level} rises above 500 ppm (400 ppm as measured on 9 May 2013), most of the world will turn into a desert and only the Arctic Basin and Greenland will be left with a few million people. This scenario enjoys great support among climate scientists. On the other hand, it is also necessary to take into account that even if greenhouse gas emissions are cut immediately and completely, the climate will warm for a few more decades.

Another risk is the risk of anoxia (lack of oxygen) in the depths as a result of the change in the currents of the oceans. If the oxygen-free layer reaches the surface, bacteria that produce hydrogen sulphide gas, which makes the atmosphere unbreathable, may proliferate. The ‘Canfield Ocean Theory’ states that in such a situation, life in the sea and on land could completely cease to exist. According to NASA's research director, this could happen before 2100.

After the Second World War, agricultural production dependent on inputs was announced to the world as the ‘Green Revolution’. The consequences were not as innocent as people were told. The world ecosystem was confronted with excessive water consumption and an explosive increase in human population. While it is known^that the ecological limit is 4000 km3 per year, the point reached by global consumption is estimated to be 2600 ^km3 per year. When population growth, increase in industrial production and increase in agricultural production are included in the model, it is possible to predict that global fresh water use is close to the limits. There are many such limits that are about to be crossed, and in the context of the interdependence of systems, the collapse of any system will trigger the collapse of all other systems.

Although it seems to have no physical borders, one of the systems that is close to collapse is the global financial system. The market shares of multinational finance companies have risen and risen and these companies have become ‘too big to fail, too big to jail’ (too big to fail, too big to jail). The biggest fear of financial companies is that the limits of growth will be reached. Because each of them are structures built on growth. Just as a rocket launched cannot be slowed down, it is impossible for the financial system to give up growth. Economies that are deprived of growth for a long time are crushed under the burden of debt. The system constantly reproduces itself through growth. We have reached the end of both ecological and financial limits of economic growth. All economies in the world have become able to accept a moderate contraction as normal. In other words, the end of economies growing continuously as before has come.

The risks that threaten the stability of complex systems can be listed as threshold effects, domino effects and the inability of the system to return to equilibrium after a shock. Keynes argued that ‘there is no surer way of destroying the existing basis of society than to consider the value of the currency. This process leads to the destruction of all the forces of economic law and does so in a way that not even one person in a million can recognise’, which explains the fragility of economies very well. The greatest risk is the breakdown of supply chains. Today, many societies live dependent on these chains without realising it. A break in the links of the chain creates great risk. I found it appropriate to take the following paragraph from the book as it is;

‘There are very few people in our society today who can manage without a supermarket, credit card or petrol station. When a civilisation becomes ‘landless’, that is, when the majority of its inhabitants no longer have a direct connection with the Earth system (land, water, wood, animals, plants, etc.), the population becomes completely dependent on the artificial structure that keeps it in its present state. If this increasingly strong but fragile structure collapses, there can be no guarantee that the entire population will survive.’

Here is what we can be sure of;

1. The physical growth of societies will come to an end in the near future.

2. We have irreversibly damaged the entire earth system.

3. We are heading towards a highly unstable, non-linear future in which major upheavals will become the norm.

4. We are now potentially exposed to systemic global collapse.

Since I realise that I will have to write a separate article on the rest of the book, I find it appropriate to conclude this article here. I should point out that many people who have been following the current political developments have started to see the lights on in their minds. Being unaware of all that is going on may make you happy until the last moment, but it will not change your fate. In the current situation, the biggest advantage that countries have in order to save their future seems to be water resources, agricultural production, forests, seas and lakes. Instead of protecting these, those who open mining sites, destroy water basins, and undermine agricultural production by saying ‘I will buy it from outside anyway’ can desperately see what kind of evil they are doing to their people. Hoping that we will not live in the days when the marginal benefit of a drop of water will not be exchanged for a gram of gold, I call on the society to raise awareness about collapse.

(1) P.Servigne, R. Stevens, (2024), How Everything Can Collapse, Türkiye İş Bankası Kültür Yayınları, İstanbul.