What Happens If Everything Collapses - 2
In fact, scientific data tell us that we are in such a process. But people prefer to follow the lies they want to believe than to know what they are up against. Politicians know this fact and compete with each other in lies.
Have you ever imagined waking up one day to a completely different world, where the basic necessities you use frequently in your daily life are out of reach? What would it be like to wake up to a world where your bank account or credit card has no chance of providing you with these items? Or what kind of chaos would it cause to knowingly live the process leading to such a world? Although the word collapse has a very short-term connotation, it is possible for the world system to last for many years. We continue our review of the book(1) that aims to raise awareness on this issue.
In fact, scientific data tell us that we are in such a process. But people prefer to follow the lies they want to believe than to know what they are up against. Politicians know this fact and compete with each other in lies. To summarise, the world order designed according to the capitalist system forces the systems of the world (ecological, economic, social) to exceed their limits in many areas. However, no one cares that this is ecologically and thermodynamically impossible. Everyone is in a hurry to protect what they have, to have new things, and to live the life dictated to them.
In complex systems, although it is not possible to precisely determine that the systems are close to collapse, some signs warn of this. It takes a longer time for systems to return to equilibrium when emerging from crises. Research shows that in systems with high homogeneity, the increase in vulnerability is higher due to the absorption of deterioration. It is almost impossible to recognise increased fragility. Although analysing ‘early warning signals’ in financial crises helps us understand the nature of crises, it does not make them more predictable. This is because the ‘critical threshold’ is unknown. Rather than a lack of scientific knowledge, there is an uncertainty about the nature of complex systems and intuition gains importance.
The question I have in mind here is whether the fact that politicians all over the world support solidarity in crisis situations serves to hide the existing deterioration. The word solidarity is probably a concept that sounds good to everyone when they first hear it. But who can prevent deterioration in a system where people are constantly trying to overcome problems in solidarity, while those responsible are not held accountable? The data that tells us that the limits have been exceeded are now orientated towards the near future and help us understand what kind of future awaits us, rather than ensuring the continuation of the system with the current structure. Again, I need to remind you of the reminder in the first chapter. It would be useful to read the USA's Greenland exit (which is the place to live in case the amount ofCO2 in the atmosphere exceeds 500 ppm) from this point of view.
Studies on collapse fall within the field of activity of many disciplines. The applications that make them realistic and perceivable by the society are modelling. Depending on the developments in computer technology, predictions about the future of complex systems can be made through modelling. One of these models, HANDY (Human and Nature Dynamics), is incomplete for predicting the decline in the human population. Two more parameters are added to the model developed in the 1920s: global wealth and the distribution of wealth.
Recognising the sensitive dependence of complex systems on the initial state, three basic initial scenarios are adopted. In scenario A, an egalitarian society without elites, in scenario B a just society with elites but where labour gets its due, and in scenario C an unequal society where elites unfairly confiscate wealth are modelled. In the model, resource consumption rates of each society are also considered at four levels. In scenario A, society can reach equilibrium until the increase in resource consumption. However, collapse is inevitable at degrees 3 and 4. In other words, the rate of plundering natural resources is a cause of collapse regardless of inequalities.
In scenario B, society can reach equilibrium when the rate of resource consumption is low and growth is low, while the probability of collapse increases with the increase in consumption and growth. In a society in which elites confiscate wealth, i.e. in scenario C, collapse seems inevitable regardless of the rate of consumption and growth. The state of nature's depletion relative to the human population determines whether it is possible for nature to recover in the long term.
In short, the HANDY model has shown that social stratification increases vulnerability to the possibility of collapse. Inequalities cause the rich to feel the signs of disasters later and to stick to the same patterns of production and consumption until then, thus creating a ‘buffer effect’. The Roman Empire and the Mayans are cited as examples of collapses in which the elite, unaware of the catastrophic course of society, remained indifferent.
In societies where classisation is evident and transitivity between classes is low, consumption is perceived as an indicator of class identity and the society tries to consume like them in order to prove that they belong to an upper class. With psychological drift, public health is also threatened. A study with data from 23 countries revealed that ‘most of a country's health indices deteriorate not when GDP falls, but when the level of economic inequality increases’.
Another model of collapse is ‘World 3’, a model that has been the subject of many international reports (about 40 years old). According to this model, ‘the general collapse of our thermo-industrial civilisation is most likely to occur in the first half of the 21st century’. The model, developed by MIT (Massachusetts Institute of Technology) within the scope of studies carried out to determine the long-term (150 years) trend of the world system, stated that the economy and agricultural production would begin to collapse between 2015 and 2025. In addition, from 2030 onwards, the human population would begin to decline uncontrollably, falling to 4 billion people by the end of the century.
Astonished, the researchers also tried to simulate some scenarios for stabilisation. Parameters were changed with options such as developing efficient technologies, stabilising population or industrial production, increasing agricultural production, controlling pollution. However, all alternative scenarios led to collapse. The only solution was to initiate all measures simultaneously in the 1980s. At the current stage, the world is heading towards the worst-case scenario and this does not seem too far away. ‘It is too late for sustainable development, we must urgently prepare for shocks and build small, resilient systems,’ said Meadows, who wrote the report that caused a sensation in the 2010s.
Experts say that collapses can last hundreds of years when civilisations are taken into account. Accordingly, we are very likely to be in a collapse process. The collapse of nations may cover a process that can be expressed in decades. It is difficult to know where we are in this process. However, it seems difficult to say good things for Turkey in a social system where income distribution is getting worse, natural balance is not taken into consideration, and an elitist and wealth-grabbing class is created. Again, I would like to quote a paragraph from the book and leave the interpretation to you.
"The word crisis makes the situation seem temporary. Crisis harbours the hope that a return to normalcy is possible and therefore serves as a scarecrow for economic and political elites to subject the population to measures that would never be tolerated in normal times. The crisis, while it speaks of urgency, paradoxically fosters an illusory sense of continuity."
Jared Diamond, author of ‘Rifle, Germ, Steel’ and ‘Collapse’, mentions five interacting factors in the collapse of societies. These are
a. Environmental degradation or resource depletion,
b. Climate change,
c. Wars,
d. Sudden loss of commercial partners and society's (mis)responses to environmental problems,
e. Socio-political factor.
Stating that only the socio-political factor mentioned in the last item is common to all conflicts, Diamond expresses this item as ‘the failure of institutions to function properly, ideological blindness, inequalities and, above all, the failure of society - especially the elites - to react appropriately to possible catastrophic events’.
Analysing the collapse of the Soviet Union and stating that the same end was inevitable for the USA, Orlow proposed a five-stage scale for collapse. According to this scale;
Financial collapse; It occurs when the hope that things will work as before is lost.
Economic collapse; It is triggered when the hope that the market will supply is lost.
Political collapse; It occurs when the hope that the government will take care of you is lost.
Social collapse occurs when you lose hope that society will support you.
Cultural collapse occurs when ‘faith in the goodness of humanity’ is lost.
I should mention here that the purpose of the sections of the book I have tried to quote is to raise awareness on an important issue that is never discussed in society. Not realising the danger does not eliminate it. Both as a country and as a world, capitalist production and consumption patterns need to be abandoned urgently. The capitalist system always predicts consumption in excess of need. Growth is like the blood flowing in the veins of the system. Without growth, the veins cannot be nourished and the process of reproducing the system itself is interrupted.
Although saying that the pandemic experience in the world is a rehearsal for collapse is perceived as a conspiracy theory, this is what it made me think after reading the book. Global developments such as Germany's call for its citizens to ‘keep enough emergency supplies in their homes for at least 3 days against the increasing risk of cyber threats and power outages’ (2) and the US's insistence on Greenland and Panama (3) seem to suggest an ecological and economic collapse. Important developments are taking place in the world. The fact that the massacres of nature continue in Turkey in such an important period raises questions about what those who take these decisions want to do.
I am sure that you must have been in the middle of a storm of thought while reading these sentences. It is really a shocking book and I think that it will definitely have an impact on the comments I will make on politics in the coming period. What I regret is that these issues, which directly concern the future of society, do not find a place in the agenda of political debate in our country, which is vicious and lacks intellectual level. In fact, although many interrelated indicators are emerging, it is almost impossible to find a discussion environment free of emotion that can establish the link between these developments.
(1) P.Servigne, R. Stevens, (2024), Her Şey Nasıl Çökebilir?, Türkiye İş Bankası Kültür Yayınları, İstanbul.
(2) https://abcgazetesi.com/almanyada-acil-durum-uyarisi-3-gunluk-su-ve-gida-depolayin-783105
