Are you ready to travel in pilotless airplanes?

Every airborne vehicle is being grounded. No one is ready to accept anything that could put the lives of people travelling by airborne vehicles at risk. Today, commercial airline transport, which is the fastest way for human beings to travel from one place to another, can be preferred by passengers to travelling by train, ship or bus, especially when it is considered safe and less risky, as well as being able to overcome distances in a short time. However, as soon as trust disappears, no one wants to take a risk for the sake of saving time and be a part of an aeroplane journey that will endanger their lives. Air commercial airline transport is the mode of travel that people question the most in terms of passenger safety. For this reason, the basis of air travel is the sense of trust.

The first of the three most important factors that nourish the trust factor is the certification that the aircraft are manufactured in accordance with airworthiness standards and criteria, and that they are modern, comfortable and safe vehicles. Secondly, the mechanism that manages the traffic on the airways used by the aircraft, the airfields, connection points, and the air traffic between the landing and take-off airports should work like a 'clock'. The third is the control and guarantee by the civil aviation authority that the pilots using commercial airline vehicles and aircraft have received the necessary pilotage training and have the appropriate level of licence to ensure a safe flight.

Why is there no transition to pilotless passenger aircraft?

Today, I would like to touch upon the pilot factor among these three factors. Today, we are all witnessing that a great progress has been made in unmanned aerial vehicles. Especially in military aviation, we are witnessing developments that will almost change the nature of air wars. I believe that there will be much bigger leaps in this field in the near future. I even think that even those who are over 50 years old today will see the use of UAVs in a wide range of areas, from robotic aircraft fighting each other to robot aircraft. But we are still a little far from this point. 

Unmanned Aerial Vehicle has not been built yet!

Every 'unmanned' aerial vehicle we see in the air these days is actually manned. OK, there is no pilot, no human inside the vehicle. In this respect, we call them unmanned aerial vehicles or systems, but this does not mean that they are not unmanned. These aircraft are flown by a pilot or even a pilot team sitting in the control station on the ground or in the cockpit on the ground. The connection between the aircraft and the ground control station is real-time over data and communication lines. Thus, today's developing technology makes it possible to use a UAV that can be controlled from the ground without having a pilot in the aircraft.

The point I want to get to is that truly unmanned aerial vehicles, a mechanism that operates with full automation and can fulfil the pilot function with artificial intelligence has not yet been established in the air. Human interaction and thought process in air travel have not yet reached a level where they can be removed from the equation. At the centre of full automation (I am talking about a closed system that operates without human input, a system that is not man-in-the-loop, i.e. a system without humans in the loop) are mission/flight computers. There are so many variables that a computer can lock up or make the wrong choice based on programming. Software problems are notorious in the computer world. Especially in aircraft systems, where millions of lines of programs are involved, it is unlikely in reality that things can be carried out with a hundred per cent trouble-free software, even though they are certified software. Pilots in the cockpit perform commercial airline flights according to a checklist that can intervene in malfunctions that may arise from software errors along with other problems and land the aircraft safely.

Software problems in fully automated aircraft will put the following lives at risk, both on board and from the crashed aircraft. In addition to software, other system problems, including hardware, may also occur in the air. The pilotless aircraft is expected to be able to solve these problems without putting the passenger at risk. The feasibility of this, that it is a pilotless but risk-free aircraft, must be guaranteed and certified by aircraft manufacturers to the relevant civil aviation authorities. Commercial aircraft manufacturers are not yet able to provide full guarantees in this regard. In parallel with the developments in aviation technology, I believe that they will be able to guarantee 'risk-free' aircraft in the future.

However, aviation authorities are always slow to accept anything that would put any life at risk, and try to stay on the risk-free side as much as possible. They are on the side of the passenger, one hundred per cent passenger safety, rather than the manufacturer companies. The current legislation dictates this all over the world. This is the case for our Turkish Directorate General of Civil Aviation (DGCA) as well as for the American Aviation Administration (FAA), the European Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) and the like. Truly unmanned commercial flights, in which full automation will be in operation in airline transport, will most likely be realised first in cargo flights. Today, even unmanned cargo flights are not yet possible. Therefore, under current conditions, I believe that we are some distance away from seeing pilotless aircraft in passenger transport in commercial airlines.

Why is it difficult to make the cockpits of commercial passenger aircraft 'pilotless'?

Let's look at past practices. The history of air transport is only about a century old, no matter how you look at it. Today, cockpits with 2 pilots are preferred in commercial aircraft and even in most military jets in general. In the past, there was an obligation to have a flight engineer in the cockpits in addition to two pilots, this was a common practice. Now, progress has been made in terms of the number of people working in the cockpits and it has been reduced to 2 instead of 3. Flight engineers, normally acting as the third flight crew, had to be present in the cockpit at all times, responsible for monitoring, operating and managing aircraft systems throughout the entire flight. With modern developments and advances in automation, this seat could finally be eliminated.

Under normal circumstances, pilots do more than just fly the aircraft. When there are some engineering errors in the aircraft (there are numerous systems, subsystems, software and hardware in an aircraft that can fail from time to time), there are situations where pilot judgement plays a key role in order to activate the backup systems in time for a safe flight and to land the aircraft safely without putting the aircraft into an emergency situation (emercency) as much as possible. In addition, the pilots flying the aircraft analyse the weather forecast in case of snow, rain, clouds, bad weather, etc. and decide how much reserve fuel to take for a safe flight. They decide the take-off and landing speeds for a particular airport, weather condition, cargo, etc., passenger seating arrangements, load balance in the aircraft (in-flight load placement so as not to disturb the use envelope specific to that aircraft). When an unexpected situation is encountered during the approach and descent of the aircraft for landing, they decide whether to land or to pass without landing on the runway, to reach safe runway approach conditions again and to try landing again or to go to another airport. 

There are also situations that occur during the flight, such as the failure of navigation, engine or communication systems, which the pilots try to manage in the background and the passenger is not aware of. Although not routine, it should be recognised that these situations occur many times in a pilot's career. The reaction time of the pilot may be as short as 5-10 seconds in order to prevent the growth of a malfunction occurring in the aircraft and to avoid problems in general. It requires training, skill, competence, experience, intelligence and teamwork to safely manage developing emergency conditions.

When passengers disrupt the order in the aircraft, they maintain order and establish authority. Just as the captain of a ship has the authority and responsibilities during navigation at sea, the captain of an aircraft has similar authority and responsibilities in the air, and flies the aircraft together with his/her co-pilot. 

Another psychological factor that should be underlined is the fact that the pilots in the cockpit of the aircraft are also the passengers of that aircraft. If the aeroplane crashes, the pilots, like the other passengers, will most likely end their lives. Let's leave everything aside, even if there is no one on board, pilots have to operate the aircraft in the safest way for their own lives. No pilot can be expected to deliberately jeopardise his own life. Can there be troublesome moments for pilots? Of course there can be. However, the airline industry and the rule-making civil aviation authorities have established a global mechanism that ensures that all pilots and cabin personnel involved in airline transport undergo rigorous training. It is not possible for a pilot who is not qualified and competent to operate the aircraft to sit in the cockpit. It is also guaranteed that the pilot is healthy. At least once a year (depending on age, it may be every six months), each pilot undergoes a pilotage examination (I am talking about a strict examination that goes beyond a full check-up health check). As a result of this examination, the pilot can take his/her place in the cockpit after the health certificates issued to the pilot by specialised, certified hospitals are approved by the relevant civil aviation authority.

I said that pilots can start to work in the aircraft they fly after receiving 'type training (ground lessons, simulator and in-flight training)'. In addition, they must have a certificate certifying that the aircraft can land safely in all kinds of bad weather conditions, for example, landing in low visibility conditions, and must undergo control trainings where they refresh this at regular intervals. A pilot who somehow loses his/her competence and takes a break from flying is subjected to refresher trainings almost from the beginning. It is checked whether he meets the required standards, whether he meets the criteria for piloting, and it is documented by the authorised training institution that he has passed the controls. Only when these conditions are fulfilled, pilots are allowed to fly again in commercial airlines (military pilots are also obliged to comply with similar rules). 

In short, in the commercial airline industry, where numerous rules and control mechanisms are in effect, the confidence of the cockpit to the passenger is an important reason why commercial air travel is carried out according to high safety requirements. The passenger boards the aircraft to the extent that he/she trusts the pilot in the cockpit. 

Civil Airline Sector Pushes for Single Pilot Passenger Aircraft

I have mentioned some of the characteristics that pilots should have. I have mentioned the above points to draw your attention to their functions in the cockpit, to the fact that pilots are not doing an ordinary job, and that they can take part in the cockpit if they deserve to use the aircraft. Passengers, who trust a system that guarantees such a competent person in the cockpit, can travel by plane with peace of mind, almost without taking any risk, and have confidence in the aircraft.

Nevertheless, if you have any doubts, I recommend you to listen to a commercial airline pilot about how he/she became a pilot, what they do in the simulator and the important decisions they make every day while flying. I can assure you that you will learn many more details that I have not mentioned here. Ultimately, this kind of conversation will help you to travel with more confidence in aeroplanes. If you are afraid to get on an aeroplane, if you do not have confidence (without prejudice to psychological factors), I recommend that you try to have a five-minute conversation with an airline pilot. At the end of the conversation, you will believe and trust that the safest travelling conditions are provided by airline transport as much as I do. Please give it a try.

By the way, in the commercial environment, everything is based on cost effectiveness, efficiency and profitability. In civil airline transport, primarily commercial rules apply. One of the goals of commercial airline companies is to reduce the number of pilots in the cockpit and cabin crew, thus optimising the costs spent on manpower. In this business sector, where captain pilots receive an average salary of 7-10.000 USD and co-pilots 3-5.000 USD, it is commercially understandable why companies want to see a single pilot or even no pilot in the cockpit. However, there is still a long time to go for both single pilot cockpit and pilotless cockpit. We know that there is a long way to go for this.

In this context, today, the civil airline industry, and the companies that make money from passenger and cargo transport, want a single-pilot aircraft that can manage everything from start to finish without compromising the safety factor, and they are pressing aircraft manufacturers and aviation authorities for this. The main humour of having two pilots in the cockpit is the safety factor. With a two-pilot system in the cockpit, it is ensured that the pilots perform a coordinated flight in a way to support each other (crew resource management - CRM), and if one of the pilots somehow becomes ill, it is guaranteed that the other pilot can safely land the aircraft at the nearest and appropriate airport. 

The key question here is always this: In a single-pilot aircraft, who will take over when the pilot falls ill? Who will land the aircraft safely? Of course, if you have a pilot passenger sitting in one of the passenger seats, then you may not have much trouble landing the aircraft. However, what if there is no other pilot on board, what then? Who will guarantee the safe landing of the passengers on that aircraft? 

Therefore, commercial passenger transport is not yet ready for travelling with single-pilot aircraft. The cockpit designs of the aircraft are not designed for a single pilot, and an ergonomics and workflow algorithm to distribute the workload to two pilots remains valid. Civil aviation authorities are not willing to authorise single-pilot flights until they build single-pilot aircraft that are as safe as two-pilot aircraft. Nevertheless, the search for this issue continues. In the meantime, I would like to point out that we should consider single-pilot aircraft used in general aviation as an exception to the single-pilot flight permits issued for small aircraft. Business jets, regional passenger aircraft, narrow and/or wide-body passenger aircraft, etc., which we board during our journeys between cities, countries and continents, must have two pilots in the cockpit. Otherwise, no one can allow that aircraft to take off and carry passengers. These are the rules. We are travelling in an airline transport system that does not allow anyone to bend the rules. You can trust it.

Will we see aircraft carrying passengers in the near future?

If the issue of having a single pilot in the cockpit instead of two pilots is resolved first, we will definitely witness a pilotless commercial passenger aircraft cruising in the sky in the near future, if not immediately. In military aviation, groundbreaking developments are taking place in unmanned aerial vehicles. Considerable progress has been made in the design of unmanned combat aircraft (loyal wingmen) that can operate together with a manned aircraft. We are closer to unmanned driving and cruising in land and naval vehicles, where the risk is lower in a sense. The experiences and advances to be gained in these areas will inevitably be reflected in the cockpits of commercial aircraft. 

Considering these developments together with studies in areas such as artificial intelligence and machine learning, I foresee that we will probably be travelling in 'pilotless' commercial aircraft within 20-30 years. Nevertheless, I should also mention the following parenthetically. Assuming we produce a pilotless aircraft and certify it to the civil aviation authorities, we will probably still need pilots in commercial aircraft cockpits for the same reason we need people in nuclear power plants. The rule of thumb is that when things go wrong, someone has to be there to deal with it. When we manage to build autonomous autopilots capable of taking on this key task, detecting possible malfunctions or damage to the aircraft, deciding which of the necessary emergency procedures to implement, and ultimately landing the 'injured aircraft' safely, I think it will be possible to travel in completely pilotless (unmanned) aircraft.

Conclusion

Before pilotless commercial aircraft, I expect unmanned cargo aircraft to be the first testing grounds for flights with empty cockpits in the sky. The experiences and advances to be gained in autonomous cargo aircraft can also be used in the redesign of the algorithms of passenger aircraft carrying people, and unmanned cockpits can be further improved. Again, developments in the decision-making mechanisms of autonomous vehicles travelling on land at critical moments and 'risk-free' driving experiences will also be beneficial on the way to an unmanned cockpit in the air dimension. On the other hand, in my opinion, it will always be much more important for commercial airline passengers to take steps to guarantee a safer journey than today, rather than having or not having a pilot in the cockpit.