Could Russian Warplanes Be a Solution for Turkey?

Digital Age, Digital Twins, Virtual / Augmented Reality, Network Centric Warfare, Meta Verse, Multi Verse, Omni Verse etc. We hear the new nomenclatures widely, we know. How many new and popular concepts are there, right? In particular, we can talk for years from many aspects, from technical and philosophical to ethical dimensions, in particular of these nomenclatures or definitions. But we do not know how long these conversations will take place in the real life of the future. For this reason, we have a more popular concept called 'Big Data', which can offer much more realistic projections with the information it collects from real life. On the other hand, when it comes to the military field, and especially military aviation, it becomes very difficult for you to generate this data.

The information I will share with you in this article, at least, is composed of some data that will deeply affect the big data in your mind, that is, your opinions. For some of you, I can already tell you that you will read things that you will not find in many places. Sit tight in your seat, please.

Vietnamese Air Force

Our first story is from Vetnam. As you know, the Vietnam war has become a phenomenon known to everyone, young and old, thanks to the American film industry. The result of the war was the withdrawal of the USA from the territory of this country and the victory of the North and its domination throughout the country. However, there are different dimensions of this war that are not widely known by the public. For example, Communist North Vietnam, which received support from both China and the Soviet Union at the beginning of the war, had to turn its direction only to the Soviets over time. I can say that there are three main reasons for this:

• Mao's School of Chinese Communism, which began to perceive the Vietnamese Communist school led by Ho Chi Minh as the number one threat to him.
• Military and political opening between China and the Soviet Union, even border conflicts.
• Vietnam's geostrategic location is a major obstacle to China's future Pacific targets.

After Ho Chi Minh gathered his country under a single communist roof, he also fought with China. However, during this war, he did not have much difficulty in the field of air warfare, both with the Soviet-supported air power and the Western production warplanes he obtained from the South. Against the relatively outdated Chinese air force, both on the basis of platform and experience, the Vietnamese Air Force has been able to win air battles with its self-confidence. However, today time continues to flow, technology is developing and the concept of change cannot be avoided. Vietnam and China are also changing.

After the 2000s, Vietnam felt the need to replace its aging military aviation platforms with new ones. Because the warplanes like the MiG-21 produced in the Soviet era, and the warplanes like the American-made F-5 captured from the South and maintained with the technical support of the Russians, have reached the end of their useful life. For the transition to a modern Air Force, the first country that Vietnam turned to was Russia, its long-time friend. As is known, the most advanced and popular Russian military aviation platform of that period was the Su-30 aircraft. The Vietnamese have purchased 32 Su-30MK2 aircraft from the first contract they signed in 2009 and have given them to the Air Force. Isn't that a pretty meager number in the face of a great power like China? But there is a very logical reason for this.

Because, of course, Vietnamese pilots would face the Chinese air force planes that they constantly encounter with their brand new airplanes. There were border disputes with this country, and Chinese planes were constantly probing Vietnam's defense capacity with border violations. The Chinese were also using Russian Su-30-based J-11 series aircraft at that time. However, the Su-30MK2s owned by Vietnam could not even lock the Chinese warplanes due to the superior electronic warfare capabilities of the J-11s. Compared to the 1970s, the Chinese had greatly improved the electronic capabilities of their warplanes in their inventory and had achieved a much higher level of capability than the original manufacturer had.

This issue turned into a diplomatic crisis between the first disappointed Vietnam and Russia. Then, the issue was settled quietly. Moreover, with the active participation of the Israeli defense industry, the situation has been made a little more salvageable (as in the case of India). In addition, Vietnam considered it necessary to start a program of acquiring NATO standard warplanes from Western sources (It has not been concluded yet.). For this reason, the supply of Su-30MK2 is limited to 32 units. The Russians, on the other hand, have learned important lessons for themselves from this issue. They considered this event a milestone for the development of the Su-35 Electronic Warfare and Self-Defense Systems.

Thai Air Force

Our second story is again in the far east from. The Chinese air force, which produces aircraft that can be considered more modern than its Western counterparts such as J-10 and J-11, and which has developed quite a lot in terms of electronics, wanted to test its capabilities by fighting with the air forces of other countries. Already in 2010, they have clearly shown their desire by coming to Turkey for the Anatolian Eagle exercise, which was carried out in Konya. Of course, due to the US blockade, they did not find modern F-16s, but modernized F-4E 2020 Terminators. His efforts didn't stop there.

One of the important initiatives of China in this field is the "Falcon Strike 2015" exercise they conducted with the Thai Air Force. The exercise, in which China participated with the Su-27SK and Taiwan with the Swedish-made JAS-39 Gripen C, consisted of two stages. In the first phase, close air battles, also known as dogfights, would be simulated. In the second phase, beyond-sight air combat, also known as BVR, would be tested.

Of course, with its extremely high Power/Weight ratio and Super Maneuverability, China's advantage in close air warfare was high. It was as expected, and in the first stage, China successfully finished the in-sight battles (WVR stage) with only 1 loss against 25 air victories. Of course, there were additional factors in this success, such as the Thai Gripen's lack of modern air-to-air missiles like the IRIS-T. As a result, Chinese supremacy in dogfighting was evident. This success has been a very satisfying result for China, which has chosen fighter pilots with more than 3000 flight hours to participate in the exercise.

Then the beyond sight combat phase began. During these four-day battles, the Thai air force, which suffered only 9 losses against 41 air victories, clearly gained its superiority over China. Much has been written and drawn on this subject in the media and related social media platforms. Evaluations such as the emergence of the lack of training for BVR engagement, the lack of situational awareness of even China's experienced pilots, the proof of the Gripe's superiority in both electronic warfare and network-centered combat have been made. Our readers can reach many additional details by doing additional research on the internet. But the fact that I want to emphasize is this:

Having difficulty in keeping up with the era mentally and philosophically, the Chinese air force lost against the Thai air force, which, although less trained and less experienced, was trained and equipped with a more contemporary military aviation philosophy. In this loss, air warfare aircraft, ammunition, etc. not the visible tangible aspects; Another invisible aspect came to the fore as the main factor.

Indonesian Air Force

Our third and most recent story has been chosen from the far east. And from Indonesia, which many of us know well, with whom we have close relations in the field of defense, and whom we regard as our Muslim brother. Because Taiwan, India etc. Chinese expansionism, which we often witness at the borders, has chosen to compete with Indonesia this time. Again, as is customary in all the countries of the region, this story was started by China with fishing boats. But first, let's take a brief look at the Indonesian air force.

This young country has chosen to start its adventure of establishing an air force, mostly with Western-made platforms. The F-16 A/B Block 15 OCU aircraft he acquired in the late 80's became the most modern warplanes in his inventory (Later, 24 more used F-16 Block 25s were purchased). East Timor, Aceh etc. The problems experienced in the regions brought along an embargo process for this country. Indonesia, which turned to Russian aviation with this excuse, obtained Su-27 SKM and Su-30 MK2 aircraft. For a relatively poor country that has to control a very large airspace, an aircraft that can stay in the air for a long time, can scan large areas with its long-range radar, can detect it visually when it makes contact, and can win the close air combat it will enter is the ideal choice for Indonesia. has come to the fore. Despite its handicaps in the field of maintenance, maintenance and combat readiness, Indonesia has been able to successfully use these warplanes. But this situation changed radically after the fire test of airplanes.

China, which has problems with almost all its neighbors regarding territorial waters and the exclusive economic zone; It also had disagreements with Indonesia. The dispute turned into tension with the navy and air force, which again followed the Chinese fishing boats (I would like to remind you that you may not find much information on the internet, as I follow the subject from a local/direct source). Therefore, the Indonesian army has faced its biggest test in the air, at sea and on land, far from the area where the main power structure is focused.

For Indonesia, which has relatively good relations with China, this development came as a bit of a surprise. Of course, there were some unseen reasons for this surprise. However, what happened thanks to these relations, the international public and the media It took place a little far from the knowledge of the moment. A long and tiring period of time has begun for the Indonesian armed forces, which were alarmed with all its elements. In addition, frictions and dogfights in the air have become inevitable.

Indonesia, which has experienced a similar experience to Vietnam recently, has clearly realized that the Su-27/30 aircraft will have no meaning against China. But on the other hand, they have witnessed that their F-16 Block 15/25 aircraft, albeit old, can successfully fight against Chinese aircraft. Even modestly modernized these warplanes, AMRAAM etc. They have proven that they have the potential to make a difference with advanced missiles. This issue was only reflected in the media with the country's decision to deploy F-16s to the Natuna Islands. However, it is important in terms of showing the depth of the current crisis.

In the defense press, the country's cancellation of orders for Su-35 aircraft, CAATSA sanctions, etc. reasons explained. But the truth of the matter is much deeper and clearer. Indonesia realized that it could not rely on Russian-made platforms for air defense. Because these platforms, which were tested by fire in all areas, especially electronic warfare and self-defense, failed in the digital battlefield. These airplanes may have succeeded in the past, in the mentality of the past; but it has been revealed that they are insufficient and backward in the fields of the future. Of course, for political and economic reasons, this issue has not been explicitly stated. The Chinese forces, which suddenly retreated with the 2019 pandemic, gave the Indonesian army an opportunity to breathe in a sense.

The demands and expectations of the Indonesian air force from a warplane have undergone a complete and compulsory change after this process. The country's administration has turned its direction to the West, primarily in terms of warplanes. "How can we create a minimum required power projection on a tight budget?" They began to ponder over the question. In this context, two of their favorite modern aircraft came to the fore. French Rafale and American F-16 Viper Block 70/72. In fact, the news that a limited number of F-15EX warplanes were also being considered was reflected in the press. However, the acquisition negotiations, in particular Rafale and Viper, have made a significant progress.

Another reflection was the cancellation of Su-35 orders. In fact, it was deemed necessary to cancel the Su-35 planes, which were supposed to be procured not with money, but with natural products such as rubber, cocoa, coffee, by barter method. Meanwhile, despite the Russians making great efforts not to lose prestige, the officially approved cancellation process has begun.

The most important and unnoticed effect of the subject is the cooling of Indonesians from the KF-X/IF-X project they embarked on with South Korea. Together with the KT-1 trainers and T-50 Golden Eagle jet trainers and light attack aircraft, a close cooperation environment has emerged between Indonesia and South Korea in the field of military aviation. Making the best use of this environment, the South Korean defense industry succeeded in making Indonesia a partner in the new generation KF-X program with a 20% share. It is thought that the KF-21 Boramae, which will be the country's first modern combat aircraft, can add value to the Indonesian defense and aerospace industry. The idea was good, but...

South Korea, which was to realize such a large and comprehensive project for the first time, had to receive technical support from many western countries. When it comes to highly sensitive technologies and important components, these foreigners did not show the same generosity for planes to be produced for Indonesia, unlike South Korea. So the IF-X they would have to buy had to be a much poorer, incapable and visible version than the original. There was also a new aircraft in question, which they doubted whether it could have adequate solutions and correct system integrations in the field of electronic warfare, although it received external support. Doubt is no longer an acceptable risk for Indonesians after their experiences. Therefore, it was seen as a prerequisite for Indonesia to turn to proven and reliable solutions. It's like the famous saying: "I need a husband. I need him tonight." reduced to simplicity.

By the way, I would like to conclude the issue by making a bet on a rumor. As you know, we have a very prominent maritime neighbor in the field of multi-source defense procurement recently: Egypt. The country has received MiG-29M2 aircraft. The issue of Su-35 aircraft, of which 24 have been ordered, has not yet been clarified for this country either. The rumors are as follows: the first batch of planes has been received. The Egyptian air force tested these brand new pheasant-like aircraft against other aircraft, especially the Rafale in their hands. According to rumors, the result was a complete smackdown. The electronic warfare capability of the Rafale aircraft completely blinded the Su-35s. Even unexpectedly many other capabilities of the aircraft caused him to lose his ability. As a result, the Russians, by pleading for the issue to be kept closed, promised the Egyptians that all the problems that arose would be corrected, and they withdrew the planes! Although, it is not yet known when and how these corrections will take place. However, the rapid departure of important Russian aviation friends like Algeria from the Su-35 creates a basis for even stronger whispers.

As you know, France was the most enthusiastic actor during the overthrow of Gaddafi. The French planes took off before the decision was taken and entered Libyan airspace. The falling of the bombs and the falling of the word occurred almost simultaneously. It took time for other countries to intervene. The desire of French politics to take an active role was also influential in this. However, Rafale aircraft showed the success of performing their operations without loss when the Libyan air force and air defense elements were fully active and strongest. It has been claimed that behind this success is the Electronic Warfare capability called Spectra, which can provide results far beyond a normal self-defense suite. In addition, the aircraft's highly successful and compatible electronic warfare environment-compatible sensor fusion, network-centered combat system, etc. It has been shown as the main reason for the recorded success.

Although it is an Omni Role, it fits the trends of the time, but the Rafale has been a fighter aircraft that did not find foreign sales success for quite a long time. It was an expensive aircraft to purchase and operate. It also had a French logic that was unique to it and might seem strange to many users. It would take time to master its active use in maintenance-maintenance operations. Now, this plane is fighting like a cheesecake. My personal opinion is that this aircraft is not a suitable solution for the battlefield of the future. But for today's battlefield, it offers an ideal solution for countries that want to abandon their orthodox approach and move to a modern air warfare concept. For this reason, Rafale draws attention as a platform that stands out more as a reliable way for Indonesia, India, UAE, Greece and many other countries to spend the next 15-20 years smoothly against their opponents. Because it can offer effective solutions in the invisible dimensions of the battlefield. For example, Rafale, which offers a solution similar to the cultural change offered by the F-16 in the Turkish Air Force, offers the convenience of meeting every need from a single external source for the countries that will buy the Rafale aircraft.

Conclusion

Let's go back to one of the most popular topics today, MertaVerse. The definition of an intangible, non-existent, digital world attracts people's attention. In fact, this specially designed virtual world attracts people more than the real world. An understanding has emerged as if people will spend more time in the virtual world than in real life. When we look at the successes of the Hollywood film industry and the Game Industry, which exhibit the most advanced versions of the visual arts, I can say that this possibility may come true in 10-15 years. But the invisible dimensions of war affect our age much earlier and more radically than those in peacetime.

In peacetime people have enough time to think and linger. But when the war begins, time and opportunity become very limited. I'll be frank: "One of the two rival planes that start the engine in anger and take off against each other will not be able to return to the base from which it took off. The phenomenon called air combat has to either end in victory or defeat. Unfortunately, there is no middle ground between these two for pilots.”

We are witnessing comparisons of warplanes from the eyes of civilians. Engine power of aircraft, take-off weight, altitude, speed, etc. It can be quite easy to make comparisons by looking at the values. Comparing missiles, radars and similar equipment can also make sense in this sense. But from a military point of view, such comparisons are neither realistic nor actually possible. Because there are too many variables that are overlooked by civilians. Among them, there are those that are invisible and must be kept secret. It must be said that this fact lies behind Turkey's "Domestic and National" insistence, starting with ammunition and extending to modern aviation platforms and subsystems. Even if you own it, you can't know if an airplane or missile you didn't produce will call your enemy "with a song" when it has to go into a real war. You can't even be sure if he'll show what he saw...

Today, when there is a lot of discussion about whether the Russian aviation industry can be a solution to our country's increasing need for fighter jets, I can contribute to the defense industry experts and the project officers of our Air Force, with some data, with these limited evaluations. I wanted to be short. I hope you found the article useful. Please do not hesitate to send your comments, opinions and criticisms.