Has the Space War Officially Started?

Star Trek was started to be shown as a TV series on American television in 1966. Thus, about three years before man set foot on the moon, the dreams in his mind were reflected on the big screen. Many different scenarios of such films, which are about people's contact with other living things different from those on earth, in the galaxy after the third world war, are being widely screened today. At the same time, much of what we see in such films also turns out to be groundbreaking developments in space in real life.

Space, which is defined as the infinite void that includes everything that exists, has been an unknown area for human beings until yesterday. The sun, planets and their moons and stars in near space have been discovered by telescopes on earth. In the continuation of these pioneering studies, mankind has also developed technologies that reach space over time. Parts of unknown space close to us, perhaps one millionth, are now known.

Mankind has always been tempted to 'go up and see from above'. As a person ascends, he has noticed that the area he sees grows and his horizon expands. Realizing that those who can see a wider area can dominate others, and trying to see further with tools like binoculars, have given humanity important experiences.

Societies that have such means have also begun to gain superiority over the other, especially in the military field. Therefore, societies that have to clash with each other; He tried to invent abilities that would meet the needs of other societies, such as following the movements of other societies, which they perceived as enemies, to understand whether they would attack their own homeland, and to spy on the regions where the hostile societies lived.

In the framework of defending the society and ensuring its security, the farther the enemy can be seen, the more time is gained to take precautions. For this reason, surveillance activities have been important for all societies in every period. Seeing the enemy from a dominant height on the battlefield and 'reading' their maneuvers gave the commanders a situational advantage and gave them the opportunity to easily lead and manage their fighters. For this reason, although the methods have changed in each period, surveillance has become a primary military need.

To spy literally means to watch someone's actions without letting them know. In fact, the concept of surveillance refers to a function that is integrated with military terms, reconnaissance and intelligence activities. In this sense, surveillance; Although it is not a firepower itself, it is defined as a force multiplier in that it has the role of increasing the effectiveness of friendly forces in the operating field and allows even a small force to create an 'effect' equivalent to a large force.

Surveillance is done constantly. The uninterrupted flow of information obtained by surveillance is transmitted to operations centers continuously and in real time, and is shared between aircraft in the air or warships navigating at sea, submarines, armored and tactical vehicles on land. Thus, it indirectly ensures the victory of the war by serving the formation of the tactical picture of the operation. Enemy units (land, sea, air and other) obtained by surveillance, deployment and organization order, maneuvers, etc. processed information sets; In a suitable format, all commanders, from the eldest to the smallest, who take part in the war, and everyone who has a direct and/or direct role in the war, from the pilot in the air to the admiral at sea, to the intelligence officer who infiltrated the enemy country, is needed.

Modern surveillance systems used today; It can transfer the generated surveillance-based information sets to the users in encrypted and desired format, 24/7 in real time and without interruption. Surveillance (along with reconnaissance and intelligence) capabilities constitute the essence of the ability of all warring friendly elements to work together in the 'network supported operation' environment.

In this respect, numerous military functions such as communication, navigation, target finding, target destruction and similar military functions are integrated with surveillance activities. Before the first motorized aircraft flew in 1903, aerial reconnaissance, intelligence and surveillance activities, by using balloons, entered the battlefield as practices that went beyond classical methods. With the development of airplanes, most of the aerial surveillance activities started to be done with airplanes. At this point, the American U2 spy planes, which were used to spy on Eastern Bloc countries in the 1950s, come to mind first. As the probability of aircraft being shot down from the ground increased, the USA and the Soviet Union, which sought to operate at higher altitudes, started their own satellite programs. Thus, in the Cold War environment, the space race continued as a reflection of great power competition.

The beginning of this race; The famous V-2 missiles of the Germans It is based on rocket technology, which enables it to aim its lance at targets on British soil. II. With the end of World War II, the Soviets, who seized this technology (including German scientists), had the opportunity to take a step ahead of the Americans. The USA also benefited from the fact that some German scientists who knew rocket technology settled in the USA during the war, as well as for the construction of the atomic bomb, for satellite technology. Thus, the superpowers, combining their technologies with German rocket technology, accelerated their research and development studies in the space field. At that time, getting ahead in the field of space began to be seen as a means of superiority and prestige between the two blocs.

As a matter of fact, on October 4, 1957, the Soviet Union managed to stay one step ahead of the USA in this race by launching the first artificial satellite called Sputnik 1 into space. This event, which is as important as the invention of the wheel for our world, has been a pioneering move to reach space. Thanks to this move, man was able to set foot on the Moon for the first time in 1969. Today, the thoughts of traveling to Mars or traveling to the depths of space are more than dreams. In fact, various leading companies in this field have started to sell the tickets of these planned trips today. It would not be wrong to say that travel in space will soon become an ordinary journey.

Our mobile phones, tablets and computers, which have become an integral part of our daily lives, our navigation devices that we use everywhere, terminals that allow us to work in our homes without going to work, etc. All systems perform their functions thanks to satellites like Sputnik 1 orbiting the earth. So much so that it would not be a prophecy to say that all these advanced devices, systems or equipment will become largely 'useless' objects when the satellites are disabled for any reason. Our smart homes, cars and yachts will undoubtedly have to lose their minds as well.

Therefore, satellites; They have become an indirect part of our lives as capabilities that go beyond mere military tools for defense and security, corresponding to our routine needs. They are systems that facilitate the life of every person in some way and that serve all humanity. The most obvious risk posed by the existence of satellites; the fact that they have become the most critical element of the world system, which makes us all dependent, navigating in space.

Without satellite support, it has become almost impossible for any country to prevail over another in the military field. For this reason, tens of countries today have the ability to launch their own satellites into space and place them in orbit around the world, primarily in line with their security and defense requirements. Every country that has its own satellite is considered to have acquired an important capability in terms of military independence and operational independence.

In our age, in an environment where the military satellites that support the operation field are 'turned off', armies become unable to use war weapons and vehicles, even their ordinary abilities. All military activities in war and peace conditions have become dependent on the use of satellites. Without satellite support, we can say that the possibility of any military power winning a regional or global war has disappeared. However, small-scale, narrow-area operational functions can be performed with certain restrictions, and battles may be won without satellites. In conditions where the satellites are 'turned off' or 'shot down', the availability of military capabilities to provide the necessary system for the war is considered a special area of ​​expertise that requires separate planning for the warring parties, and operational plans must be prepared within this framework.

While the dependence of human beings on satellites both locally and globally in military and civilian use continues, bidirectional space studies continue at full speed within the scope of protection/shooting of satellites. Now that launching satellites into space is seen as an ordinary skill, having extraordinary space capabilities is seen as necessary to make the desired difference. Countries that take a step forward in this field will be able to reflect their space weapon superiority over others to the battlefields in space and on the ground. In this context, there are two prominent research and development (R&D) axes:

R&D (1): To disable, de-orbit, render non-functional or destroy the A satellite while it is in its orbit, by an aircraft in the air, another satellite in orbit, or a ground-to-air missile. For this purpose, hard-kill or soft-kill capabilities such as missiles, laser weapons, cyber-attacks continue to be developed.

R&D (2): Any target on the ground, in the air or in space, with the weapon capability to be provided to the A satellite while navigating in its orbit. fi is to strike, blunt or neutralize with a missile or with directed energy, a laser.

The news about the studies on both axes has been served to the media from time to time for decades. In terms of its actuality, in this article, we would like to discuss the tests for anti-satellite weapons carried out on the axis of ARGE-1 and their effects.

In military terminology, the agenda in the anti-satellite arms race, known as ASAT (Anti-Satellite Attack or Weapon), was determined by the anti-satellite weapon test carried out by Russia on November 15, 2021. The first successful test firing, launched from the ground to the air and destroying a satellite, was carried out by the Russians at the mentioned date. The ability to hit any satellite with a ground-fired missile is as important as sending Sputnik 1 into space in 1957. It is a first in world history. It is the product of integrated studies extending from the idea level to the reality.
November 15 test; This means that any satellite traveling in its orbit can be hit. He has shown us all that there is no safe harbor left in near space anymore. As it is known, the "shooting" of America, which was said to be "unkillable" across the ocean, on September 11, on its own continent, has deeply shaken the security paradigm in the minds of Americans. The success of anti-satellite weapons has similarly brought about the questioning of the space paradigm. This development, which necessitates the defense of equipment and vehicles in space, has made our concerns about space security even more visible.

In fact, replicas of the Russian test have been made over the years by many countries, including the United States. Countries investing in this field are developing and testing ASAT weapons. In 2007, China launched an ASAT missile at one of its meteorological satellites. India has started ASAT tests since 2019. In 2020, Russia tested two ASAT missiles.
A total of 12 anti-satellite weapon tests have been carried out in this area so far. However, on November 15, the shooting test with the ASAT system, which the Russians named Nudol, stood one step ahead of the others. The difference of the test on November 15th from the others is that it was carried out according to the method of hitting the satellite with an orbiting missile. It is a first in this respect. The transition from theory to practice has been achieved. All countries that previously carried out test activities in this area used anti-satellite missiles in test firings; instead of a real satellite, they directed them to a satellite that is supposed to be in orbit in space, in other words, to an imaginary or virtual satellite.

In the test firing on November 15, the Russians hit a real target in orbit around the world. In the 1980s, an obsolete Soviet satellite called Cosmos 1408 (for electronic and signal intelligence purposes) was targeted. This satellite, which can be considered quite large, weighing approximately 3,860 pounds (1,750 kilograms), was fired. Cosmos 1408; Cruising at 17,000 miles per hour [27,000 kilometers per hour], the anti-satellite missile targeting this satellite entered orbit of Cosmos 1408 and caused it to disintegrate on impact.

Anti-satellite missiles, which are currently used by all countries working in this field, are sent to their targets in space by launching from the ground into space. It seems possible to implement this method with anti-satellite missiles to be launched from aircraft equipped with suitable capabilities while cruising through the air. It may also be possible to implement more advanced methods in space, such that it can be launched from a satellite, can stay in orbit for a long time like a satellite, can be 'awakened' when desired, and destroy the target satellite in orbit. ASAT tests on this basis have not yet started. However, it is obvious that it can be launched soon.
The successful conclusion of the anti-satellite fire test conducted by the Russians on a live and relatively large satellite led to further discussions. As a result of hitting a satellite of this size, near space was subject to 'particle contamination'. It has been brought to the attention of the world by space experts that it would be a more accurate method for the Russians to perform this test by firing at a much smaller satellite. The Russians who caused this were accused of 'irresponsibility'.

According to experts, the majority of the tiny particles released by the impact of Cosmos 1408 will fall to Earth within the next five years. But some fragments will continue to pollute space for 50 years and beyond. This raises the possibility of orbiting satellites colliding with 'vagrant' particles. As a result of the ASAT tests, it is understood that the particle clouds that will remain in orbit around the world for years are a problem that should be addressed primarily by all countries that have satellites in space and/or will launch satellites in terms of their effects on satellite security. Pointing out this situation, the Commander of the US Space Forces, General James Dickinson, said, “The Russians are undermining strategic stability in space. The method used in ASAT tests threatens the existence of other nations in space. South Korea, on the other hand, invited all countries to use space for peaceful purposes and to cooperate to develop common rules in space.

As a result, the widespread use of space dimension among states is about to make space a battleground. Space domination, space superiority, is about to become the subject of international relations and international law, similar to the concept of airspace. New international problems, such as the determination of the space areas belonging to the states, and considering the violations of space space as a cause of war, are candidates to determine the interstate agenda in the near future.

Being deprived of the possibilities offered by space would mean making war without space technology (GPS navigation systems based on global positioning, satellite phones, missile defense systems, intelligence tools, strategic reconnaissance vehicles, surveillance capabilities, etc.). Reducing existing capabilities, waging war without the support of the 'spaceless' dimension is now seen as an almost impossible effort to win.

At the same time, any attack on a country's equipment (satellites, space station, space shuttles, etc.) in space (such as cyber attack, use of anti-satellite missiles or killer satellites) is considered a cause of war (spy belli). A similar situation will be valid for attacks against targets on earth from systems stationed in space, and it will be able to bring the space war to the ground in an instant.

In another article, we will discuss the developments in space-to-earth attack weapons at the conceptual level and within the scope of the tests that are being carried out.

References:
Astronauts hide: Russia launches anti-satellite missile, US responds angrily, 15 November 2021, Accessed from: https://m.ynet.co.il/articles/skwtdvxut
Chelsea Gohd, Russian anti-satellite missile test was the first of its kind, 15 November 2021, Accessed from: https://www.space.com/russia-anti-satellite-missile-test-first-of-its-kind
Spece.com staff, The Most Dangerous Space Weapons Ever, December 21, 2016, Accessed from: https://www.space.com/19-top-10-space-weapons.html
Defense Tr Teknoloji, “South Korea's call to develop common rules in space”, 21 November 2021, Access Address: https://www.savunmatr.com/teknoloji/guney-kore-den-uzayda-ortak-rules-gelistirma-cagrisi -h15464.html
Sandra Erwin, “US Army Immediately Aware of India's Anti-Satellite Missile Test”, 30 March 2019, Available at: https://www.space.com/us-military-immediately-aware-of-indias-anti- satellite-missile-test.html
Aşkın İnci Sökmen, New Battleground: Space, TASAM Future Security, p.87-112, Access: https://tasam.org/Files/Icerik/File/Gelecekin_güvenigi_İGK_4_EKT_(2)_pdf_9e23cf81-08d6-4065-858d-5639c5ee70b7 .pdf