Has the US Air Force Entered a ‘Death Spiral’?
In the US Air Force, B-52, B-1B, A-10, F-15C, F-15E, F-16, F-22 are in the aging process. Therefore, the problems caused by wear and tear are very high. Life extension activities will no longer be carried out for these aircraft, and they will be taken out of service gradually.
According to the Cambridge Dictionary, a ‘Death Spiral’ is a situation that is progressively worsening and is likely to end badly, causing great harm or damage.
The USAF (US Air Force) is shrinking; it is no longer possible to extend the life cycles of its aging aircraft, because their structural and avionic life cycles have been extended and modernised many times, but this process has now come to an end, and among the aging aircraft; B-52, B-1B, A-10, F-15C, F-16, F-22 are the most prominent ones.
In the meantime, new aircraft, particularly the F-35, are entering the inventory, but the problems of the F-35, which are caused by the fact that it is a new system, cannot be resolved quickly, and the aircraft cannot enter its useful life.
The Bathtub Curve, which is described by the Bathtub Curve and which is valid in the system life cycle, is the phase of problems arising from the newness of each system at the beginning, followed by a long useful life period and the phase of problems that increase again during the aging process of the system. This cycle is repeated continuously.
B-52, B-1B, A-10, F-15C, F-15E, F-16, F-22 are in the aging process. Therefore, the problems caused by wear and tear are very high. Life extension activities will no longer be carried out for these aircraft, and they will be taken out of service gradually. Since the life extension activities of the F-15C and F-15E will also be partially continued, this aircraft, which has a very useful design and configuration, has been brought back to life as the F-15EX Eagle II.
When we consider the F-35, F-16V, F-15EX and B-21 as new aircraft, the problems of the F-35 are very high, the B-21 is still in the test and development phase and mass production has not started.
Currently, the USAF has both very intense old aircraft problems and very intense new aircraft problems.
All these problems are pulling the USAF into the Death Spiral (Bathtub Curve) and it is trying to get out of this spiral.
At the same time, the USAF's self-created rival China is rapidly increasing its air power.
In the face of this increasing air power, the USAF feels its inadequacy in terms of both quality and quantity.
Ten years ago, the USAF had about 5,500 aircraft in its inventory. Since then, the USAF's fleet of fighters, bombers, tankers, tankers, cargo planes, drones, and other aircraft is expected to fall below 5,000 by FY 2025, as retirements of old, worn-out, and obsolete aircraft have outpaced the acquisition of new ones.
In light of budget constraints and uncertainties, it is not possible to predict exactly what size this fleet will be next year or five years from now.
The USAF aircraft fleet totalled less than one-fifth of the 26,104 aircraft fleet in 1956. During this period, the number of F-84 Thunderjet and F-86 Sabre fighters alone exceeded 6.400, far more than the entire USAF fleet of 5.032 airframes in fiscal year 2024.
The USAF fleet is 52 per cent larger than the combined US NAVY and US MARINE inventory of 3,308 aircraft.
The USAF's new aircraft are capable of hitting targets with firepower and precision far beyond that of previous generations, which suppresses concerns about the declining number of aircraft, but the shrinking fleet worries some legislators and aviation authorities.
According to air power authorities, although modern aircraft offer greater speed, range, stealth and other advantages over previous generations of technology, ‘an aircraft can only be in one place at a time.’ This dictates that quality alone cannot be sufficient, and that quantity must also be ensured.
According to air power authorities, size (quantity) is still important for deterrence and force structure reliability, and this is where, in their view, the USAF falls short. For example, an F-35 deployed in the Indo-Pacific region cannot do anything to help you in Europe.
When you are faced with multiple threats in a very large geographical area, not only quality is not a sufficient and important capability, but also quantity becomes important.
There is also confusion in budgeting in the USAF. For example, the USAF wants to turn down the planned purchase of the F-35A and F-15EX Eagle II in 2025 as it focuses its spending on research and development of future advanced aircraft, such as the Next Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) programme. This effort aims to produce an even more capable fighter jet, as well as artificial intelligence-powered drones known as collaborative fighter aircraft. However, this is pushing the USAF faster into the maelstrom of death. As you reduce the number of weapons systems that can be immediately deployed, you are diverting resources from those that will benefit you in the short term to systems that are not even in mass production yet, which means they will not be useful to you for a long time.
All of these aging and new aircraft problems, lack of quantity, lack of resources, and increasing threats are throwing the USAF into the death spiral.
