In Turkey; Not for Turkey, but for the Global Market: ‘Establishing a Regional Commercial Aircraft Consortium’ is Possible. How?
In the aircraft market, there are no countries or companies that invest in aircraft design and construction solely for their own country and using their own resources. This segment is a very important commercial aviation segment that requires internationalisation.
In Turkey, establishing a ‘Regional Commercial Aircraft Consortium’ on a global scale, i.e., establishing a multinational regional commercial aircraft design and manufacturing company in our country, creating an aviation brand, marketing the aircraft produced not only to Turkey but to the entire world, and contributing to its global maintenance and support is possible; it is not a fantasy.
What is unrealistic, or rather unfeasible, is to design and produce such an aircraft solely for the Turkish market and using only national resources.
Neither the Soviet Union/Russia nor China have been successful in this market. Even Russia attempted a partnership with the West for the Sukhoi-100, but this partnership was unsuccessful.
Attempting to capture this market solely through Turkey's entrepreneurial efforts would be a futile endeavour, resulting in a waste of time, effort, and resources. Even Bombardier, one of the key players in the narrow-body regional jet passenger aircraft market, has been acquired by Airbus, while Boeing was set to acquire a significant stake in Embraer's commercial aircraft division—the world's largest jet regional aircraft leader and the third-largest jet passenger aircraft manufacturer—the deal fell through due to Boeing's financial difficulties stemming from the B737 Max crisis.
Therefore, in this market, there are no countries or companies that design and manufacture aircraft solely for their own country using their own resources. This segment is a critically important commercial aviation segment that requires internationalisation.
Even ATR, the world's largest turboprop regional aircraft designer and manufacturer, which we also recommend for this aircraft type, initially started with French capital for the French market alone but managed to establish itself in this market and become a world leader through an equal partnership between Airbus and Leonardo.
Yes; it is possible to establish a company in Turkey to design and manufacture this aircraft, as well as to establish a highly effective and capable Maintenance, Repair, Overhaul, and Revision (MRO&U) centre/company for the global maintenance of these aircraft.
With these two structures, Turkey can become a world leader in the design, production, and lifetime support processes of turboprop-powered regional passenger aircraft.
Following its significant advances in military aviation and defence industry, Turkey now has the opportunity to enter the regional passenger aircraft market. This initiative could be realised through an international consortium model targeting the global market rather than the domestic market. In this model, internationalisation would be more suitable, economical, and profitable for our national interests, contrary to the nationalisation in the military defence industry (For details, see Source-1).
Strategic Rationale for the Proposed Model:
Turkey has made significant progress in the original design and construction of military aircraft in recent years, gaining extensive experience. In fact, it has become a world leader in the export of some of these aircraft (UAVs and SİHA).
Turkish Baykar acquired the established Italian aviation company Piaggio, and even a European aviation giant, Italian Leonardo, formed a joint venture (JV) with the Turkish company Baykar. TUSAŞ has collaborated with Airbus, Leonardo, and GE on numerous projects. Other Turkish and European aviation companies will also form joint ventures with foreign aviation companies.
Therefore, Turkey can design, produce, and even establish a mega MRO&U centre for the aircraft's body/structural, mechanical, avionics and engine systems, thereby becoming the most authoritative country in the aircraft's lifetime maintenance.
Turkey's aviation industry infrastructure and geographical location in the global supply chain enable it to play a leading role in regional aircraft production. Major players such as TUSAŞ (Turkish Aerospace Industries), ASELSAN, TEI (TUSAŞ Engine Industries), Roketsan, and HAVELSAN possess expertise in both platform and subsystem design and integration. Additionally, Baykar's capabilities can bring dynamism to the field of unmanned and digital aviation.
Why is there an opportunity in this sector and segment?
The French ATR company, a joint venture between Airbus and Leonardo, is the world leader in this segment with the ATR42 and ATR72 models; however, it is struggling to grow further and cannot even fill the capacity of its production facilities in France, despite increasing capacity. This is because the ATR72 is costly for developing countries, which constitute its largest market, while the ATR42's capacity is insufficient. In other words, ATR is maintaining its global leadership but is not satisfied with the demand in the segment where it is the world leader.
So, what is the demand worldwide for the segment we are proposing, i.e., low-maintenance, low-operating-cost turboprop regional commercial aircraft?
Ironically, demand for aircraft in this segment is increasing worldwide, but purchases, or more accurately, the ability to purchase, are decreasing because countries with a high demand for aircraft in this segment are looking for aircraft that are efficient, effective, reliable, but cost-effective (affordable and maintainable). For these countries, a European-made aircraft is considered expensive in terms of both purchase and operating costs.
Regional passenger aircraft (30–90 seats) are gaining importance worldwide due to the increasing need for inter-city connections. Between 2025 and 2045, a new demand for approximately 6,500–7,500 aircraft is projected in this segment. This represents a market of approximately 100–150 billion dollars in terms of aircraft sales alone. The maintenance and operation of these aircraft will create a market of approximately 350 billion dollars.
The distribution of this potential market across regions and leading countries is as follows:
§ Asia-Pacific (including India and Indonesia): +2,100 aircraft.
§ Africa: 600–800 aircraft.
§ Latin America (including Brazil): +900 aircraft.
§ Middle East and Turkey: +500 aircraft.
§ Europe: +1,100 aircraft.
§ North America: +1,800 aircraft.
If we do not consider Europe and North America as high-potential markets for our aircraft and leave the leadership in these regions to ATR, our model will be much more advantageous in the remaining +3,500 aircraft market and could even easily become the market leader. These figures point to a large market not only in terms of countries with growing transportation networks, but also in terms of the renewal of ageing aircraft fleets.
What is Turkey's motivation and capacity in this area? Why does Turkey stand out in this aircraft segment?
Turkey has competent institutions in the aviation and defence industry, such as TUSAŞ, TEI, ASELSAN, and BAYKAR. We can even include ROKETSAN in this list. The knowledge, production capacity, and export experience of these institutions will form an important foundation in the passenger aircraft development process.
The successes achieved in the defence sector can now be transferred to the civil aviation sector. Moreover, it is possible to produce a product that appeals not only to Turkey but also to many developing countries, particularly in Southeast Asia, Asia, Africa, and South America.
Most importantly, Turkey possesses the necessary advantages to create an aircraft that is both cost-effective in terms of purchase, maintenance, and operational costs, yet highly efficient, while also offering a lower cost but higher quality workforce compared to Europe (unfortunately). This advantage must be leveraged.
Our Proposal for the Structure of an International Consortium to be Established in Turkey:
We propose a Turkey-based, multi-lateral cooperation model. This structure will be effective in terms of both engineering and market access.
Lead Country and Prime Contractor:
§ Turkey - TUSAŞ (Aircraft Design and Final Assembly).
Critical Subsystem Partners:
• Turkey - TEI (TUSAŞ & GE) (Engine Partner)
• Turkey - ASELSAN (Avionics and Communications)
• Turkey - BAYKAR (Next-Generation Production Capabilities, Artificial Intelligence)
§ Turkey - THY/Turkish Technic (MRO & U Services)
• Italy - Piaggio Aerospace (Turkey-BAYKAR) (Aerodynamics & Design Support)
• France - Italy - ATR (Know-How and Certification Support)
• Italy - Leonardo (Fuselage and Composite Production)
• Brazil - Embraer (Aircraft Structural Experience, Latin American Market)
• Europe - Airbus (Certification, Sales Channels, and Investments)
Strategic Marketing and Cooperation Countries:
§ India - HAL or private aviation initiatives.
§ Indonesia - PT Dirgantara.
§ Africa - Pan-African investment funds and airline alliance.
This structure offers a sustainable partnership model by assigning roles to each country in terms of production, technology or market access.
Which Countries and Companies Require Special Attention in This Model?
Indonesia:
In this model, we must pay special attention to Indonesia, the world's largest archipelago, with which we have good relations, and ensure its participation as both an investment partner and a design and manufacturing partner.
Indonesia consists of approximately 18,000 islands, with over 6,000 inhabited, and a total population of over 280 million.
The primary mode of transportation on Indonesia's major islands is by road, while sea and air transport are used nationwide.
The country has over 300 airports. Turboprop regional commercial aircraft are the most suitable aircraft type for domestic air transport in Indonesia; however, Indonesia prefers that this aircraft be cost-effective and economically viable for purchase and operation.
India:
Although its terrain is not as fragmented as Indonesia's, India should also be given attention as it is the largest market in terms of population. Our relations with India are not good, and India will insist on implementing the model envisaged in Turkey in India.
However, this country also has a great economic need for such an aircraft, but despite its aviation infrastructure, it will not be able to carry out such a model within Turkey's capacity. India can be persuaded to accept the Turkish model.
Brazil and Embraer:
Another country to watch is Brazil. Brazil is home to Embraer, the world's third-largest commercial aircraft manufacturer, and was also pursuing a turboprop regional aircraft project to compete with the Embraer ATR72, though it has not yet been realised or has been cancelled. Embraer will seek to lead this project and propose forming the consortium envisaged for Turkey for Brazil. However, Embraer aims to strengthen and sustain its global leadership in regional jet passenger aircraft while focusing on its highly successful military transport aircraft project. In such a complex model, it is unlikely that Turkey, with its positive aggressive dynamism, could compete with Embraer for this model. Embraer will prefer to accept cooperation with TUSAŞ and generate revenue.
France and ATR:
Is cooperation with France and French ATR possible?
Yes. The aircraft we are considering will not compete with the ATR42 or 72, but will fill the gap they cannot fill. Airbus and Leonardo, which are equal owners of ATR, will be included in the consortium, and these companies will also benefit from this aircraft type. They will join the consortium if they are confident that they will make a profit.
Advantages and Risks of the Proposed Model:
• Strengths: Turkey's experience in the defence industry, favourable labour costs, government support.
• Opportunities: Gaps in rapidly growing markets such as Africa and Asia, need to renew fleets. Need for cost-effective systems.
• Weaknesses: Limited certification experience in civil aviation, high initial investment costs.
• Threats: Competition from companies invited to the model such as Embraer and ATR, political risks with India and France, financing issues.
How should the Turkish government support this model we propose for Turkey?
The Turkish government should provide maximum strategic support for such a large project indirectly rather than directly. How? Let us try to illustrate with an example.
- It should identify the most suitable region for the ‘Aircraft Industry Industrial Complex’ required for this model (we assess that it is Southeast Anatolia; for details, see Sources 2 and 3) and allocate the land.
- All indirect financial support provided should be structured to support employment and industrial migration from west to east (for details, see Source-4).
- The government should provide all necessary continuous support to encourage qualified labour to move from the west to the east and to retain those already in the east. For example, the Social Security contributions of employees working in the companies of this consortium in the Southeast Anatolia region should be paid by the government, and these contributions, which are not paid by the employer, should be reflected in the employees' salaries.
- The region where this aviation industrial complex will be established should be under the responsibility of the city where it is located; the financial burden of institutions that will provide urban planning, the creation of a modern satellite city for employees, transportation, education, health, and other services should be borne by the central government, not the municipal administration.
Conclusions and Recommendations:
Turkey can make a strong entry into the regional passenger aircraft market through international strategic partnerships. This is not possible alone, but rather through a multinational, multidisciplinary consortium. The product to be developed will not only meet the needs of Turkey, but also those of developing countries in particular, and therefore there will be high demand for this product, especially from developing countries. Designing and manufacturing aircraft is not only a technological and industrial endeavour; it is also a diplomatic and economic move. It will bring significant direct and indirect benefits to our country in the short, medium and long term.
References:
1. The Necessity and Benefits of the ‘Internationalisation’ of Turkey's Aircraft Industry.
2. Turkey Can Join the Ranks of the World's Commercial Aircraft Giants. Proposal for an Aircraft Industry Complex Centred in Cizre.
3. The aviation industry to be established in the Southeast Anatolia Region will serve as the flagship of national development for both the region and Turkey.
4. Turkey should shift its future industrial development to the east of Kayseri, and even accelerate it. Why? How?
