defense

Our Air Force's Intermediate Aircraft Need for the Next 10-15 Years Will Be Solved with 4+++ Generation MMU KAAN

The most serious air power threat to Turkey in its region comes from Greece. For many years, the Greek Air Force was at the level of 70% of the Turkish Air Force in both quantity and quality. However, recently, especially the procurement of Rafale F3-R, the start of the modernization of F-16C/D Block 52+ aircraft to the level of F-16C/D Block 70/72 (F-16V Viper) and the fact that this modernization will be completed in 2027, as well as the purchase of F-35 The fact that they have made their declaration of intent and will most likely supply this aircraft will make the Greek Air Force a significant threat in terms of quality in the next ten years (See Ref.-1 for detailed information).

Turkey participated as a partner in the US F-35 5th generation joint attack aircraft project in 1999, with the aim of strengthening its air power in terms of quality and quantity. Turkey would purchase +100 F-35A version aircraft, some parts of the aircraft would be produced in Turkey, and an engine maintenance center would be established in our country and all F-35 engines in the European region would be supported from this center. However, Turkey was excluded from this project in 2019 due to CAATSA sanctions, citing its supply of Russian S-400 air defense systems.

During the period when Turkey participated in the F-35 project, Europe was under intense marketing demand pressure for its participation in the Eurofighter Typhoon project. If we participated in this project, we would have the right to both joint production and technology transfer.

Turkey actually made a plan to greatly strengthen its air power and started to implement it 24 years ago, with a very convenient timing and appropriate decision, but due to foreign policy-related reasons, it had to start from scratch the struggle to renew its aging aircraft fleet after losing 20 years of time and money.

The positive side of our removal from the F-35 partnership was the intensification and acceleration of our own national jet fighter design, manufacturing and development efforts.

Turkey's strategic goal is to support its air power with 5th generation jet fighter aircraft, which it produces itself and can support without being dependent on others, starting from 2035. However, it is also necessary and essential to reinforce its air force with an additional intermediate aircraft until 2035. We wanted to evaluate which aircraft would be suitable to achieve this goal.

Aim:

Reinforcement of the Turkish Air Force with 4+++ and/or 5th Generation jet fighter aircraft between 2024-2034.

A. Criteria Determined for the "Intermediate Aircraft" That Can Achieve the Target (In Order of Importance):

1. The intermediate aircraft must be of appropriate capacity (4+++ and/or 5th Generation).

2. It can be put into service as soon as possible and in sufficient numbers.

3. To be in NATO standards (For supportability).

4. Technology transfer.

5. Production in Turkey.

6. Lifetime supportability.

7. It is cost-effective.

B. “Intermediate Aircraft” Alternatives:

1. F-35: Not available. It is the "Root Cause of the Problem", not an alternative to solving the problem.

We were removed from the aircraft of which we were a project partner, within the scope of CAATSA, even though our first package aircraft were ready to enter service. The biggest reason for the Turkish Air Force's recent capacity shortage is our exclusion from the F-35 program.

With this decision, the USA was actually deprived of the support of an ally in our geography that would support it within the scope of NATO with a huge F-35A fleet of +100 aircraft. On the other hand, the F-35 in its current state causes great disappointment to its users, and fixing its problems will take both time and cost. For detailed information, see Ref.-2, 3 and 4).

However, the F-35 is currently the most prominent representative of the 5th generation aircraft in the world, and the fact that Greece, which poses the highest air threat to us, will most likely supply this aircraft will tip the balance of power between us in their favor.

2. F-16V: Procurement is possible, but it is constantly postponed by the USA.

The supply of the latest version of 40 F-16Vs and the kits that will upgrade the 79 aircraft in our F-16 fleet to the F-16V configuration has not started, and the issue is being used as a material for the political ambitions of the USA.

3. Eurofighter Typhoon: Its supply is vetoed by Germany.

It cannot assume the stealth feature of the F-35, but it is a 4+++ generation aircraft that can be very effective, especially in air dominance missions.

We intend to purchase 20+20 (with additional purchase option) = 40 latest version Eurofighter Typhoon aircraft. Among the countries that own this aircraft, England, Italy and Spain have the approval, but Germany vetoes it. If Eurofighter Typhoon for 40 aircraft can be procured in a short time; Turkey's F-16s will modernize itself with its "FREE PROJECT" and will make a serious contribution to the Turkish Air Force in the next decade. Since it is a NATO-standard aircraft, there will be no problems with its supportability.

However, establishing an effective logistics maintenance system, including the acquisition of MRO&U (Maintenance, Repair, Overhaul and Model Upgrade) capability for a package of 40 aircraft, would be a very costly choice.

If MRO&U capability cannot be acquired; It is not possible to trust this aircraft under war conditions.

You can take a look at reference-5 for my detailed evaluations of the Eurofighter Typhoon supply.

4. It is possible to procure "Upgraded Variations of Eurofighter Typhoon Tranche 1s" to be taken out of service, but!..

England; Eurofighter Typhoon Tranche 1s (+30 aircraft) will be removed from service in 2025. The same idea exists in Spain, and they are even trying to sell their Trance 1s to Colombia and other willing countries.

British aviation giant BAE Systems repeatedly and persistently suggested to the Royal Air Force (RAF) to upgrade the Tranche 1s to Tranche 2 or 3 variants, but the RAF did not accept this proposal.

Upgrading is reasonable as long as it is cost-effective, otherwise it may be "expensive because of the lining".

Tranche 1s are aircraft in their category that have been modernized with two different blocks one after the other and have entered the final stages of their airframe life. In addition to the airframe life extension works, they will be subjected to a very intense electrical installation, software, hardware and mechanical modernization and will be upgraded to Tranche 3 level and will be able to fly for a maximum of 10-15 more years. Considering the life cycle cost, this variant is more costly than the last variant, Tranche 4. This did not seem reasonable to the RAF and BAE Systems' offer was not accepted.

The supply of upgraded Tranche 1s will not be cost-effective for Türkiye either.

Moreover; Germany will also be able to veto this supply model.

5. Rafale: It is not considered possible to supply.

Rafale; It is an aircraft with a capacity equivalent to the Eurofighter Typhoon, but its supply is not considered possible due to our poor diplomatic relations with France.

6. Gripen: It is not possible to supply it.

SAAB JAS 39E/F Gripen; It can be considered an aircraft with a capacity close to the F-16V. The engine of the aircraft is US GE F414. GE's partnership with TEI can prevent US pressure on the engine. However, due to our poor diplomatic relations with Sweden, its supply does not seem possible or logical.

7. Su-35: It may be possible to procure, but its supportability will not be easy.

It is a high-end air superiority aircraft. Aircraft in the world whose performance can be compared are the American F-22 & F-15 and the Chinese J-20. Su-35 does not have stealth feature compared to F-22 and J-20. Despite this, it can provide us with unquestionable air superiority, especially over the Aegean. However, its effective, efficient and continuous supportability will be very difficult. Supply via leasing method may be considered.

8. JF-17:

China's J-10 aircraft is a 4th generation aircraft developed specifically for Pakistan's needs. It will be a cost-effective aircraft, but this aircraft will be indirectly dependent on China. Pakistan's own urgent needs have not yet been met. It does not seem possible to procure a sufficient number of aircraft in a short time. There is no advantage it can add to our air force in terms of capacity.

9: J-10

It is China's 4+++ generation aircraft. It is possible to supply. Depending on the manufacturing capacity of the manufacturer, Chengdu, it may be possible to supply sufficient quantities in a short time. It is also possible to manufacture and transfer technology in Turkey in case of large numbers of purchases (however, most of the technology in this aircraft is available in Turkey). It will be cost-effective compared to its Western counterparts. If necessary, the supply of the latest variant J-10C by leasing may be considered.

10. Hürjet: Our National Jet Training and Light Attack Aircraft.

The Hürjet Project was initiated to be included in the Turkish Air Force inventory to replace the T-38 aircraft used within the scope of Jet Evolution Training and the F-5 aircraft used in Acroteam demonstrations.

HÜRJET Jet Training and Light Attack Aircraft is designed to play a critical role by using its superior performance features with its single-engine, tandem and modern avionics suite cockpit. The armed variant of HÜRJET is an important force in the battlefields with its wide mission range and superior payload capacity. Especially; It is the most suitable candidate as an interim gap-filling aircraft to alleviate the burden of the F-16 until the period when KAAN enters effective service. I consider that it would be appropriate to accelerate mass production (see Ref.-6 for details).

11. 4+++ Generation, Non-Stealth KAAN: Our National Air Superiority Aircraft with Stealth Features.

Prototypes of MMU KAAN have been produced and our 5th generation stealth aircraft is ready for its first flight. So, what do we mean by the 5th generation, that is, the 4+++ Generation KAAN variant that does not have stealth feature?

Now that KAAN is ready for its first flight; Structural and mechanical test values confirm the execution of the first flight. This is an impressive development. However, it will take 2035-40 for this 5th Generation aircraft to enter service with its full anticipated capacity. In this interim period of approximately 10-15 years, in order to close our combat aircraft gap both quickly and as independently as possible, the first variants of KAAN were designed to close the stealth feature, but to carry ammunition and weapons.

It would be reasonable and logical to produce 4+++ generation capacity, which increases its capacity and can enter the service of the Turkish Air Force as quickly as possible.

The 4+++ generation KAAN will be an aircraft that has load-carrying plates under the fuselage and wing and at the wing tip, and can also carry conformal fuel tanks, but will eliminate the stealth feature due to all these external load-carrying capabilities. This situation can be endured for 10-15 years.

An example of the F-35B, armed with an external payload, but losing stealth.

It will be sufficient for the avionics and weapon systems package to be equivalent to the "Free F-16 package."

It is also reasonable that their engines are GE F110 manufactured by TEI. If there is a problem with the supply of ADB engines; The supply of British, French, Russian and Chinese engines should also be considered.

Starting from 2035; As the 5th generation KAAN variants enter service; The model of generations 4+++ can be upgraded to this variant.

When KAAN becomes the 5th generation; Will it not be able to carry loads on its external pylons when requested? Yes, in the KAAN 5th generation configuration, it will be able to carry ammunition or external fuel tanks by attaching external pylons, if desired. However, of course, in this case it will blunt the stealth feature.

Then why wait until 2035 for the 5th generation KAAN to enter service? Since it will make its first flight now, why not start mass production immediately? Why do you recommend the 4+++ generation KAAN as an interim gap filling aircraft until 2035-40? If the 5th generation KAAN can be put into service in 2035, how can the 4+++ generation KAAN be put into service 10-15 years in advance?

Currently, two prototypes of KAAN have been manufactured. The testing and development phase will be carried out with these pre-autotypes for approximately 10 years. The 5th generation aircraft's aerodynamic design, composite body coverings, sensors, etc., provide radar invisibility. The effectiveness of invisibility systems will be constantly tested, evaluated, and if necessary, improved and renewed. The aircraft's in-fuselage ammunition launch systems, subsystems, fire control systems, main mission system, subsystems, main software, supporting software, etc. Many major and subsystems will be tested and developed for years. The configuration of the aircraft that provides the 5th generation features is extremely complex, difficult and requires long-term testing and development, this process will take a long time.

However, if we want to produce KAAN in 4+++ configuration in the first place; If the avionics, mission computers, mission software and weapon systems of the Özgür F-16 project are integrated into the fuselage of this aircraft, these proven 4+++ generation systems can also be used in the twin-engine KAAN. Thus, the 4+++ generation KAAN can be put into mass production immediately.

Conclusion:

It is essential to strengthen the Turkish Air Force between 2024-2035. Effective reinforcement of an air force with a new aircraft type within a period of ten years is a very ambitious solution. No country or aircraft company keeps aircraft in stock in a configuration that will be useful to you. This also applies to civil aircraft.

Let's say you bought a new aircraft type; The production line of this aircraft should also be active. The best examples of this situation are those whose production continues and can meet our needs at an optimum level; Eurofighter Typhoon Tranch 4, Dassault Rafale F3 and Saab Gripen E.

EF Typhoon's production line is full until 2035, and if the +50 order from Saudi Arabia, which Germany vetoed, is approved, it will extend until 2036. You will probably receive your first package in 2038, and at best it will be 2040 before these planes will be ready for combat. In addition, you must maintain these 40 aircraft until approximately 2090... Otherwise, it will be a waste of defense expenditure... Moreover, if you are the last to purchase the EF Typhoon and there are no other orders from you, the main consortium and main users of this aircraft, England, You will have to maintain this aircraft until approximately 30 years after Germany, Italy and Spain take it out of service...

By removing us from the F-35 joint production program, the USA has clearly acted in a hostile manner and has worn out the Turkish Air Force. Delaying the sales of new F-16V and F-16V upgrade kits and perhaps not making these sales at all continues to hinder the reinforcement of our air force.

The most optimal interim solution would be to accelerate our 4+++ generation MMU KAAN and 4+++ generation armed HÜRJET projects and put these aircraft into the service of the Turkish Air Force as soon as possible. In this case, modernized F-16s will shoulder our air power until 2035, 4+++ generation KAAN and HÜRJET will be reinforcements, and as of 2035, the 5th generation KAAN will take over the main combat aircraft duty from F-16.