Possible Sale of 100 Kaans Opens the Door to 100 Years of Strategic Cooperation between Ankara and Riyadh
I foresee that the possibility of selling 100 Kaans will be kept at the top of the agenda as a ‘secret’ topic during future defence talks between the parties.
Will Saudi Arabia Purchase 100 Kaan Fighter Jets from Turkey?
In recent days, there have been reports in the national and international press that Saudi Arabia is planning to purchase more than 100 Kaan fighter jets from Turkey, using the phrase ‘according to unconfirmed reports from Turkey’ as a source. The Kaan is still in the prototype stage, and a number of steps need to be taken in order to start mass production. TAI needs to realise its goal of producing and delivering 20 Kaans to the Turkish Air Force by 2028 as a starter aircraft or early entry 20 Kaans.
The Turkish aerospace industry has been working feverishly under the leadership of Turkish Aerospace Industries (TAI), focusing on the Kaan development programme to meet its own fifth generation fighter jet requirements. The possibility of outsourcing was always in the minds and vision of the programme managers. However, I see such possible sales agreements at the very beginning of the project as a valuable development in terms of demonstrating the interest and belief of the outside world in Turkey's ability to successfully realise this massive national programme.
During the recent visit of a Saudi delegation led by Saudi Deputy Defence Minister Khaled bin Hussein Al-Biyari and Turki bin Bandar Al Saud, Commander of the Royal Saudi Air Force, to Turkey, it is understood that the issue of a possible purchase was raised during their meetings with TAI, ASELSAN and Roketsan officials.
On the other hand, the fact that Saudi and Turkish officials have not made an official statement on the alleged Kaan sale should be read as a minor detail. At this stage, it may not be right to take a step that would bind both sides officially. Moreover, given the disagreements between South Korea and Indonesia in the context of the KF-21 programme, it should not be expected to talk about an official sales agreement before many things have been discussed thoroughly and comprehensively. Nevertheless, I expect that the possibility of selling 100 Kaan will be kept at the top of the agenda during the next round of talks as a ‘secret’ topic between the parties.
External evaluations are also in this direction. For example, Steve Trimble of Aviation Week, in a commentary following the first reports of the possible sale of the Kaan to Saudi Arabia, wrote that "Saudi Arabia has not said a word “ and that ”it is too early for the parties to sign a sale agreement ’.
Saudi Arabia Continues to Seek Fifth Generation Fighter Aircraft
It is understood that Saudi Arabia, which wants to strengthen its military capacity, wants to diversify its sources, and in this context, it is on the agenda to purchase more than 100 Kaan fighter jets from Turkey in due course. On the other hand, Saudi Arabia, taking into account that Italy, the UK and Japan are working together to develop a sixth generation fighter jet for their armed forces, has decided to increase its cooperation efforts with the countries involved in this programme in 2023.
It is known that the Global Combat Air Programme (GCAP), which brings together the governments of the UK, Italy and Japan and the relevant industry branches under the leadership of BAE Systems (UK), Leonardo (Italy) and Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (Japan), was established to establish strategic cooperation involving the governments of the countries concerned on common military and industrial objectives in the development of a new generation combat aircraft capability.
According to Reuters, in November last year, the GCAP consortium announced that it wanted to include Riyadh among its new members in order to find funding for this project, which is expected to cost tens of billions of dollars, and to guarantee future sales of the aircraft to be developed. The first prototype of the sixth-generation fighter jet is expected to appear in 2035, and this new platform is expected to be able to respond to threats that may arise in 2040+ years and beyond. At the same time, GCAP is expected to bring new sales opportunities to the participating countries, especially to the defence industries.
What Does Saudi Arabia Really Want?
From the outside, Saudi Arabia looks like a country that does not hesitate to allocate billions of dollars to the arms industry, or more precisely, to the purchase of weapons. In addition to being an oil-rich country, it has a respected place in the Arab world as a leader together with Egypt. It has a high influence on the Gulf countries and has the power and accumulation to mobilise the internal and external dynamics that can mobilise the dynamics of the Arab world when necessary. In this context, it is a country with strong connections. It is enough to see why Tel Aviv is favouring Riyadh in the Arab world and why it attaches importance to cooperation with Saudi Arabia, for example, for the Ibrahim agreement.
It can be said that the continuity of the current royal regime in Saudi Arabia depends on the existence of a strong defence organisation and a strong army. In fact, this situation should be considered normal for all countries with a similar regime structure. Saudi Arabia cannot be an exception in this respect. However, I believe that Saudi Arabia is a country that endeavours to establish its own national and domestic arms industry and develop its infrastructure. We can say that oil revenues will end one day and that it will continue to attach special importance to defence and the army for the continuation of the wealth of its growing population and its protection against internal/external threats (as well as the protection of the regime). In this context, the transfer of new generation defence technologies and/or joint production opportunities of advanced weapon systems and platforms are seen as important for the future of Saudi Arabia.
I believe that Riyadh wants to use its procurement steps not only to equip its army, but also as a means of structuring and developing its defence industry. My assessment in this context stems from my readings on this country, as well as my observation that the Saudi administration is behind the visionary view of the Saudi Arabian Air Force Commander, who visited Turkey in 2013, during my one-on-one conversations with him. Therefore, Saudi Arabia, which continues to be obliged to purchase weapons under its own conditions, is a country that is aware that it is being ‘milked’ in a way by the countries that sell weapons. However, it is necessary to see that it has to accept this in its own reality, and on the other hand, it is open to all kinds of genuine support and cooperation to develop its defence industry. As a matter of fact, I think Ankara sees this.
Kaan Offers a Serious Opening Opportunity for Saudi-Turkish Cooperation in the Field of Defence
I read Saudi Arabia's interest in purchasing 100 Turkish-made fifth-generation low-visibility Kaan fighter jets under development as a sincere, realistic and correct move. There are certainly political and technical reasons for Riyadh's preference for these aircraft.
The first is resource diversity. Riyadh does not want to remain a country dependent on Washington. It is diversifying its sources in procurement. I believe that the Rafale and Eurofighter steps should be read in this way. Saudi Arabia may also be endeavouring to take part in the GCAP consortium led by the UK for this reason. First of all, Riyadh may want to send a message that it does not have to procure the fifth generation F-35 Lightning II, and that it has other alternatives if Washington does not pave the way for this aircraft.
The second is to meet the near-term aircraft needs. I believe that Riyadh, which does not want to take any chances, is aware of the fact that the critical technologies on the Kaan, which it wants to purchase from Turkey, are being developed under Ankara's control as much as possible. We can say that Saudi Arabia, which plans to take part in the programme to develop a sixth generation aircraft in the 2040s and beyond, if possible, has included the Kaan as an intermediate solution aircraft for its own air force by acting in cooperation with Turkey for the near term.
The third is the confidence in the Turkish defence industry. Following three days of bilateral defence cooperation talks hosted by the Turkish Defence Industry Presidency (SSB), the Turkish media's announcement that Saudi Arabia plans to purchase 100 Kaan fighter jets as part of its strategic plans for the 2030s should not come as a surprise. Riyadh, which had previously opened its doors to Vestel Defence with the Karayel UCAV, had shown its confidence in Turkish defence industry products by ordering Baykar's Akıncı UCAVs in 2023. The Akıncı order was described as ‘the largest defence and aerospace export contract in the history of the Republic of Turkey’.
Now Kaan is next in line. I foresee that the succession of this step taken by Saudi Arabia, which has already demonstrated its will to purchase 100 Kaans, even as a partner ofthis major project, which is the flagship of the Turkish defence industry, will be shaped depending on the development of political, military and strategic cooperation between Ankara and Riyadh.
From Turkey's perspective, what does the possible sale of 100 Kaans mean?
When we look at the possible purchase of 100 Kaans by Saudi Arabia from Turkey's perspective, considering the cost of this project, it is necessary to see that foreign sales in terms of financing will add significant added value to the prime contractor TAI and other air defence companies, including the subcontractors ASELSAN and partly HAVELSAN. I believe that the Kaan sales agreement will not only provide Turkey with some of the financing it needs for this ambitious aircraft project, but will also be an important catalyst for this product to meet potential customers in foreign markets.
Above all, such sales agreements will also be a triggering input to reduce initial investment and product development costs. In order to exceed the threshold value in production, it is necessary to exceed the required number of scale production. Since the return of investment (ROI) will be directly proportional to the number of aircraft sold, the more aircraft sold, the lower the unit aircraft cost will be.
For example, if the number of Kaans required by Turkey is 200 and the unit cost is 200 million USD, the unit aircraft cost will probably be around 150 million USD if 100 additional Kaans are purchased by Saudi Arabia. If 1,000 Kaans are exported, the unit cost could be reduced to 75-100 million USD, which could pave the way for Turkey to provide the Turkish Air Force with a fifth generation aircraft with a lower expenditure, even if it is Turkey's own production, and encourage more countries to purchase Kaans.
Conclusion
The three days of talks and on-site visits between the Saudi defence delegation and the locomotives of the Turkish defence industry seem to have borne fruit. To a large extent, we can say that the Saudi and Turkish authorities have reached an agreement on the sale of Kaan. Even if there is no official agreement for now , the common will of the parties in this direction leads us to be hopeful for the future.
As a result, Riyadh's decision to purchase 100 Kaan fighter jets, which is rumoured to be possible, paves the way for a ‘win-win’ cooperation for both sides. This programme, which is the flagship of the Turkish defence industry, should be given more confidence internally, the SSB and the relevant defence industry companies should be encouraged to make more investments, all internal stakeholders should be consolidated and brought to a full merger in line with the same goal, and the aircraft should also be seen as an opportunity to increase future export opportunities.
There may be some among us who say that Riyadh will not buy from us, but will buy fifth generation fighter jets from the USA or European countries. However, any capital that promises to buy 100 Kaan from you and thunders even if it does not rain in this direction should definitely be taken seriously by Ankara. Moreover, with Karayel and Akıncı, Riyadh has demonstrated its confidence in the Turkish defence industry with complete seriousness.
As long as the geopolitical, geoeconomic and defence realities of Saudi Arabia are read correctly by Turkey within the framework of a realist paradigm, I believe that the Ankara-Riyadh line will open the door to at least 100 years of strategic cooperation with 100 Kaans. I would like to state that both sides are reading this 100-year opportunity correctly, that they are taking their steps in a calculated and determined manner in cooperation, and that I see the fact that they have not officially signed the sales agreement as a strategic decision in this regard.
