defense

Potential Collaborations Shaped on the Future of the F-16 Aircraft and Turkey's Free Project

It is highly likely that modernization activities will be carried out at the facilities of Turkey's TAI company. In addition, it can be thought that TAI, which has a considerable history in F-16 production, will also seek the assembly / production of the new aircraft to be purchased.

As you know, after a record delay, Turkey's request for the procurement of new F-16s and the modernization of some of the existing aircraft was approved by the USA. In line with the content of the request in question, F-16 fleets, which form the backbone of the Turkish Air Force's combat fleet; It was stated that it will consist of F-16 Özgür (1, 2, 3, etc.), which will undergo US Block 70 modernization and be modernized with domestic means, and will take on two different structures.

Another question that came to the fore in this context was where the F-16 production and modernization would take place. It is highly likely that modernization activities will be carried out at the facilities of Turkey's TAI company. In addition, it can be thought that this company, which has a considerable history in F-16 production, will also aspire to the assembly / production of new aircraft to be purchased. Because the new low-density production lines opened by the USA for the F-16 seem to be quite busy.

Although half a century has passed since its first flight, the F-16 is an aircraft that is still in demand in the foreign market and continues to be produced. A significant part of this demand comes from potential new users. Even though bilateral relations with the USA have a complicated history, these potential users are about to reach a mass that is difficult to ignore in the changing political atmosphere of the world. Therefore, examining these potential new users, especially in the Asia-Pacific region, will be beneficial for the Turkish defense and aerospace industry.

Lockheed Martin and the F-16 Production Line

Lockheed Martin, which has been producing the F-16 fighter jet in its main facilities in Dallas Fort Worth for a long time, has focused these facilities entirely on the production of the new aircraft with the start of F-35 production. While the facility, which went through a comprehensive change and transformation, focused on the F-35, there were six years without new F-16 production. It would be a mistake to see the duration of this period only as prioritizing the F-35 in foreign sales. While the demand for the F-16 continues, it should not be forgotten that there is also a wide geography where it is deemed undesirable to sell the new generation F-35 aircraft.

It is logical to look for the real reason for this delay in India's F-16 procurement potential. The aircraft, which has been tested more than once in this country, attracted attention with an almost completely renewed version called F-21 in its last tour. The biggest incentive that gave strength to this offer was the idea of shifting the production of the aircraft entirely to India and meeting the demands of other international customers from the production line to be opened here. However, the warm embrace that the USA opened to India; It cooled down in the country's original political atmosphere and the country gave up on F-16 procurement. (Another country in need that was frequently and silently mentioned during this process was Vietnam, which has very good relations with the Indian and Israeli defense and aerospace industries.)

Disappointed with the India initiative, Lockheed Martin opened new facilities focused on F-16 production and modernization in Greensville, South Carolina. The facility, which was implemented with a lower-intensity production philosophy, would be the home of the new Block 70 / 72 Viper derivatives, shaped with the knowledge gained from the F-21 adventure. Of course, we can say that this production line is quickly filled with the demands that have accumulated over the past 6 years.

In the first years of mass production, a European consortium consisting of Norway, the Netherlands, Belgium and Denmark; The F-16, which was exported through the industrial involvement of these countries, did not have a permanent production line in continental Europe. Even though under-license production was carried out at KAI facilities in South Korea, these production lines were also closed following the end of the project. The F-16 cooperation between Israeli IAI facilities had a unique and special structure. The longest-running and export-successful (Egypt) cooperation regarding the foreign production of the F-16 aircraft was made with Turkey. Additionally, F-16 Modernization exports to Pakistan and Jordan were made at Turkey's TAI / TAI facilities. With the latest approval, it has become clear that the Turkish F-16 adventure, which started with the Peace Onyx projects, will extend into the 21st century.

Turkey's F-16 Özgür Project

As someone who has been following the Turkish defense and aerospace industry for a long time, I must say that I have a different perspective on the Özgür project. Therefore, I find it more accurate to consider this project as a process and adventure. The roots of this process date back to ancient times.

When Turkey carried out the F-4 2020 Terminator and F-5 modernizations in cooperation with Israel, it woke up to the taste and advantages of mastering the internal electronic systems of an aircraft. Thereupon, the idea of using the knowledge gained from these modernization projects on a modern aircraft such as the F-16 was born. Yes, with the F-4 2020 project, we had an air platform whose codes we could access. But F-16 was a completely different medium. For this reason, the issue of obtaining the source codes of F-16 mission computers from the USA came to the fore for the first time.

As a result of long negotiations, the USA agreed to share the source codes of the F-16 Block 40 aircraft with Turkey. Interestingly, right after this sharing, Block 50 aircraft, whose source codes are not available to us, began to enter the Air Force inventory. With the subsequent CCIP modernization, almost all Block 40 aircraft would be modernized to the Block 50 standard. Only some aircraft within the scope of the 401st Test and Evaluation Squadron would be kept in the Block 40 configuration that we mastered.

Thus, the early era of the Block 40-based F-16 Free modernization began at a very slow pace. It is also necessary to seek the calm and slow progress of this project in the political atmosphere of the time. Thus, the F-16 Özgür continued to be studied somewhere as an effort to acquire a capability.

We went through a period where we had deep differences of interest and opinion with the USA. This process was parallel to Turkey's prioritization of domestic and national defense and aviation projects. When it comes to extending the life of the Block 30 aircraft, which are the first procured, oldest and worn-out aircraft in the Turkish Air Force's inventory; The available opportunities had to be re-evaluated. In this context, we observe a process consisting of 3 main stages:

In Phase 1, structural airframe life extension kits procured from US Lockheed Martin were applied to aircraft at Turkish TAI facilities.

In Phase 2, the Block 40 electronic (avionics) parts, which remained from the CCIP modernization and were in any case more advanced than the Block 30 parts, were transferred to the aircraft in question. Thus, a fleet whose source codes we have mastered and which is more open to domestic ammunition integration was obtained.

3. A process called the "Free Project" with an allocated budget was initiated. After this process, it was announced that with the local and national subsystems to be added to the aircraft, a platform that can compete with modern aircraft will be obtained.

Of course, following the above three processes, the next move will be the implementation of a new Özgür variant, which will include much more important technologies such as domestic AESA radar, and whose scope will include not only Block 30 but also all other aircraft that have not undergone Viper modernization. For this reason, Özgür I see it as a series of projects and I expect it to develop over time and cover more than one type. F-16 Özgür 0, 1, 2, 3,.. etc.

The Era of Outraged Defense Procurement

As can be clearly seen, the world is going through a special period when defense and security concerns are at their peak. The Ukrainian war, which was the actual curtain-opener of this period, hosted many developments that changed the thoughts of defense experts all over the world. Lessons learned include important issues such as the complexity of the industrial ecosystem in defense and aerospace programs, low production quantities and delays, and continuity of ammunition supply. This situation directs countries to more enthusiastic, faster, comprehensive, sustainable and technologically sufficient defense procurement.

I believe that it would be useful to look at the special time period we live in within the framework of industrial cooperation potentials with the USA and the F-16 platform. Under normal circumstances, it is very unlikely that the USA will produce and sell F-16s through Turkey, especially when it has opened a new production line in its own country. It is even less likely that such a sale will include domestic ammunition and subsystems produced by the Turkish defense and aerospace industry. But as I mentioned, we are in a special time period and special solutions become possible in such times. Especially when US interests and delicate Asia-Pacific military balances are at stake. That's why I invite you to take a horizon tour together.

Philippines Need for Modern Warplanes

The Philippines, which has a very complex and entwined history with the USA, has been in need of modern fighter jets for a long time. This pursuit was fueled by territorial waters and exclusive economic zone disputes with China and led to the start of a new armament program worth 35 billion USD. This poor and crowded island nation, located just below Taiwan, is trying to create a force consisting of qualified and modern weapons, with US encouragement.

The country, which has good relations with the Turkish defense and aviation industry, became the first actual foreign customer of the TAI ATAK attack helicopter. The Philippine Air Force has a sufficient force in the field of asymmetric warfare with the FA-50PH (a light attack variant of the KAI T-50 Golden Eagle developed specifically for the country) from South Korea and the EMB 314 Super Tucano aircraft it purchased from Brazil. However, it appears that it lacks the necessary platforms to protect the airspace.

The country, which has to take the cost into consideration in this regard, is constantly switching back and forth between the American-made F-16 and Swedish-made Gripen platforms. It seems very difficult to meet this urgent need from US production lines whose future production is reserved.

If the aircraft to be produced for the Turkish Air Force will be delivered from the production lines to be established at TAI, we can assume that these lines can also meet the urgent needs of the Philippines. We can also offer the opportunity to benefit from the established infrastructure of the Turkish Air Force in terms of both pilot and ground support personnel training. It can be assumed that country officials, such as the Commission, who are highly inclined to soft methods, will be willing to lobby to realize this possibility. In this way, it will be easier to open not only the F-16, but also various Turkish-made smart munitions to this market, in line with demand. Because the country's need to carry large amounts of smart ammunition in the face of the massive Chinese naval and air power is covered much better by Turkey than the USA. (Tolun, Çakır, Kuzgun, etc.)

I would ask you to consider this as a foreign sale with minimal Özgür impact. Construct the sale of only Turkish ammunition that will be in demand in the country, through the US FMS channel, after the Block 70 certification. In other words, it would be an ideal method for the Turkish defense and aerospace industry to sell to the USA, and for this country to direct the planes to the Philippines. Since the Philippine Air Force's FA-50PH experience is combined with the fact that this aircraft was developed together with Lockheed Martin, the manufacturer of the F-16, we can predict that the transition process to the F-16 will be quite smooth.

Additionally, the country's northern neighbor, Taiwan, is among the world's most devoted F-16 users. For this reason, in a possible joint operation; Ensuring harmony between the air forces of the Philippines, the USA and Taiwan (Singapore, South Korea and Indonesia, which are F-16 users, can also be added to the list) will only be possible with the supply of the platform in question.

I would also like to remind you that: Asia-Pacific region countries are a highly qualified potential customer for Turkish Unmanned Aerial and Marine Vehicles. This type of sale will be followed by the sale of Turkish UAVs and SIDAs. These vehicles will naturally have the opportunity to conduct network-centric joint operations with F-16s and use common ammunition.

Vietnam's Search for NATO Standard Fighter Jets

The traditional arms supplier of Vietnam, which fought against China as well as the USA and was victorious, was Russia. The country, which built its air force on Russian warplanes, the most modern of which is the Su-30MK2, became aware of the weaknesses of these platforms before all other countries in the world. The country's pilots, who frequently encountered Chinese aircraft during their air patrols with the new and modern Su-30s they purchased, complained about the technical deficiencies of the aircraft, especially in terms of electronics. (This situation also caused a covert diplomatic and technological crisis between Russia and Vietnam.) Based on the realities it has experienced, we know that the country has been in frequent talks with western aircraft manufacturers since 2015.

However, the purchase of fighter jets has a diplomatic shadow that extends to choosing a pact; It prevented Vietnam from making quick decisions. The USA, which does not want to buy weapons directly from Western countries, has explored indirect ways. He found India's HAL Tejas aircraft, which he considered a friend and from which he made defense purchases, inadequate in many respects. South Korea also examined alternatives such as the F/A-50 and concluded that it did not meet its demands in terms of kinematics. Although Sweden liked the latest version of the Saab Gripen aircraft, it could not consider the country in question as a reliable enough partner. The country has a dark history with France as a former colony. As a result of India not choosing the F-16, the possibility of obtaining an F-16 or 21 derivative aircraft was also foiled.

Considering all these factors, an F-16 Özgür variant aircraft that Vietnam can procure from Turkey, which has no conflict of interest, can be marketed as the most ideal solution. Unlike the Philippines example, I would like you to consider this as a comprehensive project that includes industrial cooperation. I will abbreviate this hypothetical project as F-16 FVV (Free Vietnam Viper).

Even though it is completely NATO standard, let's design an F-16 FVV that will use Turkish subsystems and ammunition as much as possible. In this context, consider a slightly more open-architecture variant of the original mission computer we developed for ourselves. In this way, it will be possible for the country to reach a solution consisting of a mixture of Turkish, US and Israeli subsystems. Of course, Turkish-made avionics will stand out from their competitors as they will not incur integration costs.

You may wonder whether the USA would be receptive to this type of sale. Frankly, the idea of bringing this country under its influence, even through Turkey, and having an ally that is effective against China and has a history, can offer a warm embrace to the project in question. For Vietnam, an F-16 FVV with which it can conduct joint operations and target all other western-made aircraft when it wishes; It will be seen as a sustainable technological guarantee of independence.

At this point, I imagine a very limited cooperation in the production of the aircraft's fuselage parts. My recommendation is to present the F-16 adventure of Turkey's defense and aerospace industry as an example. As you know, we started by producing domestic and national ammunition families that we could use on the F-16. We can also recommend this path to Vietnam and help in this regard. Frankly, being able to use both existing domestic ammunition that will be derived for this country, joint ammunition that will be newly developed, and different ammunition derivatives that will come out of this country's production lines will strengthen Turkey's deterrence and increase its resistance against possible embargoes. In addition, the fact that more GE F110 engines to be used in these aircraft begin to come out of Turkey's TEI production lines will strengthen many of our defense projects, including KAAN.

The path that the F-16 FVV idea will open is not only ANKA-3 and KIZILELMA; You can also follow it on HÜRJET, HÜRKUŞ, KAAN. In addition, the defense and aerospace industry relationship to be established with the country will increase the interest of Vietnam, which has openly declared its interest in the Kaplam MT tank that we developed together with Indonesia, in many of our other areas of expertise, especially armored vehicles. Moreover, as seen in the examples of Russia and Ukraine, Turkey's unique position points to the possibility that we can realize this sale by scaling China's reaction.

In addition, with the vast F-16 experience of the Turkish Air Force and the Defense and Aviation Industry, we can say that this aircraft can carry out the comprehensive transformation that needs to be carried out in the Vietnam Air Force with the smoothest transition possible. Because Azerbaijan Su-25 modernization etc. We also have experience working with projects, Russian platforms and aviation schools. The fact that Eastern European countries have joined NATO and that we have followed this process closely as a NATO member strengthens our stance. In addition, our strength in the construction sector will maximize the earnings arising from infrastructure works.

We should not forget that the F-16 is an aircraft that Vietnam likes and is very keen on procuring.

Conclusion:

As you know, we are going through a very active period in terms of military aviation, ranging from domestic and national aviation platforms to various foreign supplies. We were removed from the F-35 JSF project and after a record time, we received approval for our F-16 procurement and modernization project. I would like to remind you of President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's last statement regarding these processes: "We are now focused on the F-16."

Inspired by this statement, I found the courage to share with you some of the thoughts that have been on my mind for a long time. During the global tension period we are going through, we also have the opportunity to create additional ways of earning through the F-16. The earning potential in question includes not only the F-16 C/D Block 70 aircraft, which is the latest version of the aircraft, but also our country's national Özgür project. In this regard, our focus should be on markets where we can pursue the common interests of both our country and the USA.

Political support and active participation are of great importance not only in the strengthening of the defense and aerospace industry, but also in its continuity. However, with the guidance and involvement of the relevant authorities, there is a chance for such large projects to be realized. I respectfully present these potentials to the attention of our institutions and organizations interested in the subject.

References

https://tolgaozbek.com/savunma/hava-kuvvetleri/f-16da-yeni-sayfa-block-70/

https://tolgaozbek.com/savunma/ozgur-projesinde-kapsam-genisliyor/

https://www.defenceturk.net/aselsan-f-16-ozgur-modernizasyonunda-ilk-teslimatlari-gerceklestirdi

https://tr.wikipedia.org/wiki/General_Dynamics_F-16_Fighting_Falcon

https://www.f-16.net/

https://tr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Filipin_Hava_Kuvvetleri

https://youtu.be/dwz7xK4E0_Y?si=PGOrZUksvHQ8ZIhW

https://www.defenceturk.net/filipinler-gripen-savas-ucagi-ile-ilgileniyor

https://www.defenceturk.net/filipinlere-t129-atak-helikopteri-teslimati

https://www.savunmasanayist.com/filipin-ordusu-icin-modernizasyon-onayi-35-milyar-dolar/

https://www.savunmasanayist.com/ayni-hedefe-ayni-anda-4-tolun-aselsan-zoru-basardi/