The Most Difficult Decade Ahead for Turkish Air Power

Air power is the capability and capacity to use air capabilities in the atmosphere. The atmosphere makes it possible to use three basic characteristics of air power in its own environment; Speed, Range and Altitude (Height). The platforms that make the best use of speed, range and altitude in the atmospheric environment are aircraft and missiles. Aircraft is the main element of air power, as it has much more performance features than missiles.

The most serious air power threat to Turkey in its region comes from Greece. For many years, the Greek Air Force has been around 70 per cent of the Turkish Air Force in terms of both quantity and quality. However, the recent procurement of Rafale F3-R, the start of the modernisation of F-16C/D Block 52+ aircraft to F-16C/D Block 70/72 (F-16V Viper) and the completion of this modernisation in 2027, as well as the fact that they have made their declaration of intent to purchase F-35 and will most probably procure this aircraft, will make the Greek Air Force a significant threat factor in terms of quality in the next decade.

In the same period, Turkey has planned both to reinforce its F-16 fleet with a certain number of new and top version (F-16V Viper) aircraft and to upgrade a significant number of its aircraft to this level. For this purpose, F-16s of the oldest block and airframe age will be modernised in terms of both structural and avionic systems through the national Free Project. In addition, it has requested the purchase of 40 new F-16 Block 70 (F-16V Viper) and modernisation kits to upgrade 79 aircraft from the F-16 inventory to the F-16V Viper level. The project is awaiting the approval of the US Congress. However, the US is making every effort to delay this project and is even using the F-16 project as an element of pressure on Turkey for some of its interests. Moreover, Turkey has been unjustly excluded from the F-35 project, in which it is a partner, and deprived of the supply of a significant number (+100 units) of 5th generation strike fighters.

Turkey has the largest and most effective air power in its region, but it will make extraordinary efforts to maintain this power in the next decade.

Among our neighbours, Bulgaria, Syria, Iraq and Armenia do not have an air force that could pose a threat to us. Iran will reinforce its F-4s and F-14s with SU-35s, but they will not have an air force that can threaten us in the near future.

So how will Turkey reinforce its air power in the critical decade against the Greek threat?

A. Jet Fighter Aircrafts in the Current Air Force:

1. F-16 Block 30, 40, 50, 50+

F-16s are currently the main strike force of the Turkish Air Force. According to open source information, there are more than 235 F-16s in the Turkish Air Force inventory. They are in Block 30, Block 40, Block 50 and Block 50+ configurations. Our most modern F-16s are F-16 Block 50+, which are approximately 10 years old. Our oldest F-16s are Block 30s, which are approximately +30 years old.

The F-16 will be an important layer of our air power between 2023 and 2050. From the 2030s onwards, it will gradually transfer its role as the main striking force to the MMU TF-X.

Our F-16 Aircraft, especially the Block-30s, should be gradually modernised both structurally and in terms of avionics and weapon systems, and should be upgraded to the 4++ generation level.

2. F-4E Phantom (Terminator)

We have two 3+ generation squadrons of modernised F-4Es, but these aircraft are nearing the end of their airframe life. Of course, structural modifications can be made to extend this life, and the F-4E is an aircraft with the strength to accept this modification. Its sheet metal fuselage can be covered with polymer matrix composite sheets to reduce its weight, its avionics systems can be modernised with national avionics, we have all the source codes of the mission software of this modernised aircraft, and it has even been developed by the Turkish Air Force for years. The J-79 engines on the aircraft can be upgraded or replaced with new engines. In short, the F-4E Phantom Terminator aircraft can be modernised with national resources to extend its life and transform it into a more capable aircraft.

Even if the F-4E will not be modernised, it should definitely not be "discarded" when it is taken out of service, and if necessary, it should be used as an "unmanned target aircraft" in air-to-air firing training, or even used in operational missions as an "unmanned fighter aircraft".

3. F-5 (Modernised F-5s)

The modernised F-5 is not used in operational missions. It is used by the Turkish Stars Akrotim as an aerial aerobatic display jet fighter aircraft and will be replaced by the Hürjet.

Our modernised F-5 aircraft should definitely not be "discarded" after they are taken out of service, and if necessary, they should be used as "unmanned target aircraft" in air-to-air firing training, or even as "unmanned fighter aircraft" in operational missions.

B. UAV/ UCAV Aircrafts of our Current Air Force:

TAI Anka, TAI Aksungur, Baykar Bayraktar TB2, Baykar Akıncı and IAI Heron aircraft serve as UAVs and UCAVs in our air force. In the near future, Baykar Kızılelma MIUS, an unmanned jet fighter aircraft, will join this force.

C. NEW OR MODERNISED FIGHTER AIRCRAFT THAT WILL ENTER/PROBABLY ENTER THE INVENTORY OF OUR AIR FORCE IN THE NEXT CRITICAL DECADE:

 F-16 ÖZGÜR Modernisation Project

If this project, which aims to modernise both the airframe and avionics of F-16 Block-30 aircraft, can be accelerated, it will provide a significant contribution of 4+ generation 35 aircraft to our air force in the next decade.

 F-16V Viper Procurement and Modernisation Project

The US has requested 40 new F-16 Block 70 (F-16V Viper) and 79 aircraft from the F-16 inventory to be upgraded to F-16V Viper, 4++ generation fighter aircraft. The project is awaiting the approval of the US Congress. If this project starts, the Turkish Air Force will continue to be qualitatively superior to the Greek Air Force, which is the biggest air threat to the Turkish Air Force. However, it is very likely that the US will leave the end of this project open and use it as an element of blackmail and even threat. It would be a serious mistake to plan the strengthening of the Turkish Air Force according to the realisation of this project.

Moreover, it is known from open sources that this package includes 40 new F-16 Block 70 (F-16V Viper), modernisation kits required to upgrade 79 aircraft from the F-16 inventory to the F-16V Viper, 4++ generation fighter aircraft level, and 900 air-to-air missiles (AIM-120 AMRAAM); however, the budget allocation of 20 billion USD for this purchase is an abnormally high amount. There are certainly other purchases within this package (e.g. a large number of jet engines, ammunition, spare parts, etc.).

US Senator Bob Menendez is playing the role of "bad cop" in delaying this project. However, $20 billion is a huge sum of money, and this project is so attractive for Lockheed Martin and other US defence industry companies that if the US administration is really positive about this sale, they will make sure that Bob Menendez licks our hands, sycophants, etc., by turning him into a "cartoon cat" - let alone vetoing him in the Senate. Greek-friendly Menendez will instantly turn into Turkish-friendly Menendez!

Moreover, even if the sale is unanimously approved tomorrow, the backlog in production due to the large orders of other F-16 users indicates that Turkey will have to wait a considerable period of time before taking delivery of the new Viper jets. The optimum solution is, and most probably will be, that the 40 aircraft in question will be produced at TAI by TAI. In fact, F-16V orders of other users can also be produced at TAI.

The US is also using this project as an element of threat and blackmail in case we veto the NATO membership of Sweden and Finland, which is absolutely unacceptable. 

If the F-16V project is not approved or delayed by the US Congress, we should not waste any more time and use the resources allocated for this project very wisely to support our own national defence industry.

What can be done if the F-16V Viper Procurement and Modernisation Project is not realised?

If this $20 billion mega project, which also aims to supply ammunition, does not materialise or is delayed too much;

F-16 Free Project

 All of our F-16s should be included within the scope of the Free Project and should be carried out as a flexible programme depending on time and technological developments. All avionics including Aselsan Murad EASA radar and national weapon systems should be integrated to the aircraft.

Eurofighter Typhoon Procurement

 Two squadrons of the latest version Eurofighter Typhoon aircraft should be procured from the UK. However, this procurement should definitely be for the latest version Typhoons and should include both technology transfer and local manufacturing opportunities. In other words, the two squadrons of the latest version Typhoon aircraft should be produced in Turkey, as well as technology transfer and many components used in their maintenance should be produced in Turkey. These conditions will be accepted by the UK, and EF consortium members Germany, Italy and Spain must also accept them. We have had and will have serious cooperation with Italy and Spain in the defence industry. I do not think there will be a problem, but intensive diplomatic contact with Germany will be required. Since the Turkish Air Force's use of the EF Typhoon will give this aircraft a market advantage, I do not expect any serious problems to arise.

The fact that we have been put in a difficult situation by the USA should not be tolerated to be used as an advantage on the EF Typhoon front. We do not have to buy this aircraft either. It should only be bought if and only if it gives us an advantage.

 HÜRJET (Armed Version)

With its wide range of missions and superior payload capacity, the armed variant of HÜRJET will be an important element of power on the battlefields. With an operational radius of 2222 km, a payload capacity of 2721 kg and a top speed of Mach 1.4, HÜRJET will undertake a portion of the F-16's air-ground and air-air mission load, and will supplement the F-16 in filling the gap until the MMU TF-X, which will enter the inventory of the Air Force as of 2030. (F-16 Block 30/40/50 average performance values; 3940 km operational radius, 10930 kg payload capacity, 2.05 Mach top speed).

 HÜRKUŞ-C

HÜRKUŞ-C, the armed version of HÜRKUŞ, is being developed to perform light attack and armed reconnaissance missions with low cost and high precision. This aircraft will provide a low-cost, flexible solution against asymmetric threats. It offers a large payload capacity of up to 1500 kg, which can be utilised to perform challenging missions at high altitude and in challenging geographies, in day and night conditions. It will be used especially by the Gendarmerie General Command and the Land Forces Command. In this context, it will be able to undertake some of the missions of F-16s attacking asymmetric targets (terrorist targets), thereby lightening the mission load of our main combat aircraft.

 MMU TF-X

The MMU TF-X will be a 5th generation fighter aircraft designed for air superiority, with capabilities in technology areas such as low visibility, internal weapons bay, high manoeuvrability, increased situational awareness and sensor fusion, and air-to-ground attack capabilities will also be increased due to the fact that we will not procure the F-35, but the MMU will support our air power from 2030. Unfortunately, it is unlikely that they will contribute to our air power in the next decade.

What will be the status of Turkish and Greek Air Power in the next decade (2023-2033)?

Greek Air Power

F-16V 4++ Generation Fighter/Bomber Modernisation

Greece is having 83 F-16 aircraft modernised to the F-16V (Block-72 (PW Engine)) version by Lockheed Martin. The first aircraft was received in January-2023, and the project was planned to be completed by 2027.

Rafale 4++ Generation Fighter/Bomber Procurement

After Greece purchased 18 Rafales in January 2021, the number was increased to 24 with the new contract signed. The Greek Air Force received its first six Rafales in January 2022, and the remaining 12 aircraft related to the first contract will be delivered to Greece by the summer of 2023. The 6 additional aircraft ordered will be delivered from 2024. By the end of 2024, a total of 24 Rafale aircraft will be deployed in the Greek Air Force.

F-35A 5th Generation Fighter/Bomber Procurement

Greece has also submitted a letter of intent to the United States for the purchase of 20 F-35A aircraft. This procurement has not yet been approved. However, even if it is approved, Greece will probably not receive any F-35As until at least the second half of this decade, so they are also trying to buy used F-35As from the USAF inventory until their own orders are prepared.

In 2023-2033, the Greek Air Force will have 83 F-16Vs, 24 Rafales and most likely 20 F-35A Fighter/Bombers. This will make the Greek Air Force a highly qualified air force in its region, consisting of 4++ and 5th generation aircraft.

Turkish Air Force

In the same period, the Turkish Air Force will have the following number and quality of jet fighter aircraft (Note: Unfinalised, possible projects are not included);

F-16 Free 4+ Generation Fighter/Bomber

35 F-16 Özgür

F-16V 4++ Generation Fighter/Bomber Modernisation

79 F-16V (If not realised, F-16 Özgür)

New F-16V Procurement 4++ Generation Fighter/Bomber Procurement

If the project is approved, 40 New F-16V

F-16 Block-40/50+ 4+ Generation Fighter/Bomber 

81 non-modernised F-16 Block-40/50+

HÜRJET (Armed Version) 4th Generation Fighter/Light Attack Aircraft

The exact number of orders is unknown.

Comparison of Greek and Turkish Air Power in 2023-2033

According to the 2023 Global Firepower Index, Turkey is ranked stronger than Greece in every category, including air power. While this is unlikely to change in the near future, Greece unfortunately gains a clear qualitative advantage over Turkey in the next decade with the Rafale and possibly F-35A new fighter purchases and F-16V modernisation.

Conclusion and Recommendations:

If F-16V modernisation does not materialise, serious resources should be allocated to F-16 Free Modernisation. If the purchase of Eurofighter Typhoon Tranche 4 is realised, it cannot be said that we will be far behind the Greek Air Force qualitatively, except for the stealth advantage until the MMU TF-X enters service. Because; stealth capability basically provides the disadvantage of "my adversary seeing me before I can see my adversary". We should mitigate this disadvantage by procuring more S-400 Air Defence systems and prioritise the development and procurement of our SIPER Air Defence System. 

If necessary, the purchase of Russian SU-35, French Rafale and Chinese J-20 (stealth) aircraft can also be considered. However, in the procurement of air defence systems; technology transfer, joint production, production of many equipment required in the maintenance and operation process by Turkish Industry, and the source codes of all operating software should also be procured. Otherwise, the purchase of new jet fighter jets will not result in anything other than becoming more dependent on another country.

In the environment where we can use our "Speed, Range and Altitude" capacities that the atmosphere will provide us, we should turn to missile systems instead of aircraft and systems that are more effective but very difficult and costly to procure, and we should make use of the speed, range and altitude capacities with missile platforms, long-range cannon systems ("hell cannons") instead of aircraft.

If it is not possible to procure aircraft platforms and aircraft weapon systems from abroad, part of the budget planned for these resources should be allocated to national aircraft and missile air platforms, while a significant portion should be allocated to the modernisation of our land and naval forces.

Let us admit that the most deterrent and powerful force of the Turkish Armed Forces in our region is the "Land Force". A land force equipped with highly modern and numerically superior weapon systems will have a tremendous power and even a "terrifying" deterrent effect. Similarly, we must modernise and strengthen our naval power, the importance of which we have begun to realise more and more as a nation with the increase in our awareness of the "Blue Homeland" in recent years. The nationality rate in the weapon systems of our land and naval forces has reached 80 per cent. Instead of investing a fortune in air platforms, which have been turned into a means of exploitation, and using them as a means of threat and blackmail against ourselves, it would be the best solution to modernise them with our own means and extend their structural life, to make new purchases from completely national platforms, not to try to produce the latest generation systems in these platforms, to make what we can do as soon as possible and to put them into operational service, and to modernise their systems over time.