Turkey Returns to F-35 Program

This is a review, not a news. Turkey and the West have entered this path together. If major mistakes are not made, the Western world has given the green light to Turkey both to sell F-16 aircraft and to reintroduce them to the F-35 program.

What is the F-35 Program?

The new generation fighter aircraft (F-35 Lightning II) program, designed by Lockheed Martin and designed to increase the military capabilities and capabilities of the USA and its close allies, is named as the F-35 program. The first tier founders of the Joint Strike Fighter (JSF) program were the USA and the UK. In the second tier, Canada, Australia, Italy, Netherlands, Norway, Denmark and Turkey took place. Turkey within the scope of the program; planned to purchase F-35 fifth generation fighter jets in the size of 4 or 5 Fleet Command (100-116 units) in total. Moreover; Israel, South Korea, Japan, Belgium, Finland and Poland have also been willing to purchase F-35 warplanes through foreign military sales (FMS).

Turkey has been included in the JSF program since 1999. Turkish defense industry companies have also received work packages from this program within the framework of agreements, in return for the package of 100 aircraft that is envisaged to be procured within the scope of the program. Thus, Turkish companies were entitled to produce more than 900 parts of the F-35 fighter jet in Turkey. Turkey's inclusion in the program and its ability to manufacture many parts of the aircraft contributed positively to the development of the Turkish defense industry and, in this sense, to Turkish-American relations.

Does Turkey Want to Return to the F-35 Program?

The USA, citing the Turkish government's purchase of the S-400 missile defense system from Russia; With a unilateral decision, Turkey and Turkish companies were excluded from the F-35 project. The Pentagon announced that Turkey would lose more than 9 billion dollars as a result of its removal from the F-35 program. The USA also decided to impose sanctions on the Turkish Defense Industry Presidency (SSB). Following this decision, Defense Minister Hulusi Akar stated in a statement he made in January 2021 that Turkey wanted to return to the F-35 program.

As a matter of fact, SSB signed a six-month contract with the USA's Arnold & Porter Kaye Scholer LLP through its own subsidiary, SSTEK Defense Industry Technologies, to “return to the F-35 project”, effective February 1, at the beginning of 2021. led the way. Accordingly, Arnold & Porter will “provide strategic advice and guidance for Turkey’s continued participation in the F-35 Program… It may engage in political activities, including outreach to Joint Strike Fighter Program partners and stakeholders.” statements are included.

Despite Turkey's willingness, the US side did not favor Turkey's requests until the Russia-Ukraine War.

What is the Main Reason for the USA to Remove Turkey from the F-35 Program?

USA; It has started to openly state that if Turkey continues to purchase S-400, it will review the current program partnership status for F-35 aircraft, consider canceling the sale of F-35 fighter jets to Turkey, and may take additional sanctions if necessary.

The main reason for the USA to remove Turkey from the F-35 program; Although it is not clearly stated, when a general evaluation is made, it is Turkish-Russian relations and Erdogan-Putin relations in particular. The USA did not take kindly to the approach of NATO member Turkey, which dictates that it sided with the West, not the Russian Federation, especially after 15 July 2016.

The West's Opposition to Erdogan and Turkey:

Within the framework of the USA's encirclement of Russia and NATO's expansion to cover all of Eastern Europe, it was expected that Turkey would stand against Russia, not on its side. Turkey, which has become 55% dependent on Russian gas even only in the energy dimension, has an approach that 'collides' with its strong neighbor in the north, while there is no vital interest and reason, it has not been found realistic for Turkish foreign policy makers.

Moreover, a Western world has emerged that has started to act with an understanding that largely excludes Turkey. The West, as a bloc, wanted to reduce the Turkey-Western World relationship to the dimension of "Erdogan" only. For this reason, Western institutions led by the USA have moved away from realpolitik and have adopted an attitude that isolates Turkey altogether. Instead of reconciling with the West, the Turkish Government has developed an attitude in favor of a policy that is more inclined towards Turkey-Russia rapprochement. As a result, all internal and external motives and factors have caused the Turkish-Russian relationship to come to the fore in a way that goes beyond NATO and the West.

The Black Curtain Between the West and Turkey: The S-400 Problem

In this context; As it emerged in 2017 that Turkey's choice of S-400 predominates in the supply of missile defense systems, it began to be questioned how NATO member Turkey could purchase a Russian defense system. The USA and some leading NATO members considered it necessary to raise their objections to the Russian air defense system without delay. The fact that the S-400 missile defense system is produced by Russia, a country that stands as a threat to NATO, has formed the essence of the discussion. Thus, the issue took its place on the agenda as the “S-400 problem” between the Western world and Turkey.

Before the S-400 issue, some segments in the USA, who did not want to see Turkey as an 'ally' anymore; They wanted to hide behind various 'justifications' for not making F-35 deliveries. In addition, the S-400 issue reinforced these reasons and became a useful excuse that became more evident.

Could the F-35 Program Have Been Stayed Without the S-400 Problem?

In the absence of the S-400 supply, it has been revealed in various platforms and statements that it is aimed to remove Turkey from the F-35 program, using other excuses. In my opinion, the main factor is not the S-400 or any other issue, but America's willingness to intervene indirectly in Turkish domestic politics. Since this was not wanted to be expressed clearly, various excuses were developed. In this sense, the Turkish Government, in a way, supported the American policies and, due to the political climate, reconciled to the second plan.

In this context, some of the existing problems between Turkey and the United States, which the American side used as an "excuse" for stopping the delivery of the joint attack aircraft F-35 warplanes, were as follows:

• Case of the Presidential Bodyguards (US):

The idea of ​​preventing the sale of F-35 warplanes to Turkey was first put forward in 2017. During Erdogan's visit to the USA, events took place in front of the residence of the Turkish Embassy in Washington, and therefore an investigation was launched against the Turkish guards by the American authorities. At the same time, on July 7, 2017, David Cicilline, a member of the Foreign Relations Committee of the US House of Representatives, submitted a proposal to the Congress not to give F-35 warplanes to Turkey until it cooperates with the said investigation.

• Pastor Brunson Case (Turkey):

The arrest and trial of US citizen Priest Andrew Craig Brunson in Turkey within the scope of FETO cases has also been a problem between the two countries in 2017. Due to the Brunson issue, various draft laws were presented in the US Congress and it was brought to the agenda to stop the delivery of F-35 warplanes purchased by Turkey indefinitely. It was decided that the detention of Pastor Brunson would continue in the form of "house arrest" with judicial control on 25 July 2018.

Meanwhile, the Pastor Brunson Incident has gone down in history as an important event in terms of understanding the different political cultures and traditions of the two countries. While Americans see and even encourage the work of religious leaders and representatives to establish their places of worship and spread their religion as a requirement of their state based on religious freedom, missionary work is a matter of religious preference due to Turkey's unique political history and political culture. The Pastor Brunson Case was also a reflection of this perception (along with other factors) as it was perceived as a hostile activity against Turkey and not as an act of aggression towards Turkey.

• Purchase of the S-400 Defense System from the Russians:

During the discussions of the 2018 Department of Defense and Foreign Aid Budgets in the US Congress during the summer of 2017, some members of Congress expressed their opinion that the security of the F-35 warplanes would be at risk if the S-400s were purchased. The US Department of Defense was asked to prepare a report on the impact of Turkey's removal from the F-35 program. Thus, the S-400 issue has been turned into a kind of "go, no-go" criterion for the American side in terms of whether Turkey will continue in the F-35 program.

Is the S-400 Defense System Really a Problem?

However, for the Americans and NATO, Turkey's need for a missile defense system has been on the agenda for years within the scope of NATO defense planning. Since the 1990s, Turkey has increased its search for a system that will meet its defense needs. In fact, meeting this need was seen as a complementary force contribution to the Alliance's vision of providing air defense under the title of "Deterrence and Strengthening Defense", which was expressed in NATO's 2030 agenda, and also as a contribution to NATO by Turkey.

A missile defense system integrated with the Kurecik radar of NATO, deployed in Turkey, has begun to be considered as a complementary element to NATO's needs. The lack of the Turkish Air Force's lack of a missile defense system capable of protecting Turkish lands was undoubtedly seen as a weakness for Ankara against possible missile threats against Turkey, and measures were sought to be developed. Prior to the S-400, Turkey's efforts in the procurement of missile defense systems, and in this context, had many contacts with NATO allies, including the United States, but progress was not possible for various reasons.

Despite this, it was aimed to draw Turkey's attention to the fact that the S-400 defense system, which will be included in the inventory of Turkey, an ally country, cannot be used together with NATO defense systems, by putting forward the NATO argument. However, all the arguments in the context of NATO were not brought to the agenda only on the axis of Russia. In this context, it has been implicitly stated in the discussions that Greece, another NATO country, will also be adversely affected (with reference to the Turkish-Greek problem) from the S-400 conversation in Turkey and the balance will be upset in favor of Turkey.

Exclusion of Turkey from the F-35 Programme:

Trump-Erdogan, who came together at the G-20 summit in Osaka on June 29, 2019, talked about the S-400 and F-35, but the desired solution did not come. Despite all American sanctions threats and warnings, as of 12 July 2019, the S-400 missile defense system has been started to be lowered in parts to Murted Air Base (Ankara) by transport planes, and S-400 systems have been installed in the temporary deployment area determined within this base.

The arrival of the S-400s in Turkey was the last straw for the United States. As a result, Congress took action in line with the Pentagon report and decided to remove Turkey from the F-35 program on July 17, 2019.

CAATSA Sanctions:

Meanwhile, the Pentagon claimed that with the piecemeal information sets that Russian military personnel will collect from the S-400 radar systems, they will have the opportunity to access the technical data of the F-35 aircraft that are open to the Allies. It was stated in the report that the mandatory presence of Russian personnel in Turkey for the installation of the S-400 system, acceptance tests, user training and subsequent periodic maintenance would create difficulties in terms of accessing F-35 information.

Turkey argued that the acquisition of the Russian system would in no way harm the Western defense systems, and declared that "the S-400s will not be used in integration with the F-35s" in order to prevent possible false assessments.

Despite this, the CAATSA (Countering America's Adversaries Through Sanctions Act), which was approved by the Senate on July 27, 2017 with a vote of 98-2, entered into force in August 2017 in order to continue the sanctions against Russia. . The company named Rosoboronexport, which exports the S-400 system to Turkey, was also among the addressees of the sanctions against the Russians. Therefore, the CAATSA sanctions that were put into effect for Russia started to be applied indirectly to Turkey as well.

Sanctions in the context of CAATSA were initiated from 7 April 2021. In this context, the right of the Presidency of Defense Industries to use its export license in the USA and to use credit from financial institutions related to the USA has been revoked on an institutional basis. On the other hand, the first delivery to India, which has similarly purchased the S-400 missile defense system from Russia, was made in the last quarter of 2021. However, no CAATSA sanctions were imposed on India, which is expected to contribute to American interests as an important force in the containment of China in the Indo-Pacific region. The operation of the 'technical' dimension of the agreement was deemed necessary only for Turkey and India was 'politically' exempted from American sanctions.

Turkey's Efforts to Stop the War:

In the Russia-Ukraine War that started on February 24, 2022, Turkey followed a policy compatible with the West within NATO. It also maintained its relations with Russia and Ukraine, was open to both countries and pursued an active neutrality policy. It has sincerely continued its efforts to bring the parties together on various platforms (like Antalya and Istanbul) as much as possible, and this has increased the confidence of both the Western world and the warring parties in Turkey. Thus, Turkey has undertaken a kind of partial mediation responsibility in stopping this war, whose effects have become global, and in this context, the public diplomacy function.

Consequences of Turkey's Side with the West:

In this critical period, which witnessed the search for new alliances and the world level began to reshape, it was deemed necessary for the West to regain Turkey. With the effect of this, Turkey's role in the Russia-Ukraine war and its cooperation with the West were 'rewarded', and the sanctions decisions taken by the Western World against Turkey in the context of the S-400 began to be relaxed.

Towards the end of March, the joint production project of the SAMP-T long-range air defense system with Turkey in the partnership of France-Italy was revived with the visit of the French Ministry of Defense delegation to Ankara.

Leading the sanctions against Turkey, the USA sent the letter to Congress recommending the approval of Turkey's proposal for the purchase of additional F-16s and the modernization of existing F-16s. In the Ministry of National Defense, which sees this situation as a positive development; The expectation that the negotiations on the F-35 initiated at the Pentagon will be revived in the upcoming period and that a political-military delegation from Turkey will be invited to Washington has increased.

Similar to the USA, after the NATO Foreign Ministers meeting, where Foreign Minister Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu and British Foreign Minister Liz Truss met on 6-7 April 2022, it was announced that the UK lifted the export restrictions imposed on Turkey. Similarly, meeting with her Canadian counterpart, Melanie Joly, Çavuşoğlu stated that they agreed to overcome the restriction problem (for the use of FLIR-imaging and lasering systems) through an exchange of letters.

Conclusion:

The Russia-Ukraine War reminded the Western World of Turkey's geopolitical importance. As seen after the Second World War, it has been re-perceived today that a global policy to contain the Russians without Turkey would be 'flawed' from the start.

The USA, which removed Turkey from the F-35 program for Sudanese reasons, paved the way for other Western allies to impose sanctions on Turkey, especially in the defense industry. Despite the fact that nothing has changed for Turkey nowadays, harsh attitudes have been put aside in relations with Turkey and a diplomacy based on consensus has been put forward. Turkey, under the leadership of Erdogan, has also started to follow a foreign policy that is more compatible with the West. From the point of view of Political Science, it is considered that these developments will not only have positive reflections on foreign policy, but will also provide important opportunities for gains in Turkish domestic politics, and will contribute to a stronger wind that will strengthen his hand politically at home.

"The main factor in Turkey's removal from the F-35 program is not the S-400 or any other issue, but America's willingness to intervene indirectly in Turkish domestic politics." Assuming and accepting his determination, it is understood that the USA and the West have a tendency to continue with Erdoğan. Erdogan's understanding of politics based on pragmatism is likely to bear fruit here too, if we ignore other developments.