Turkey's 2045 Strategic Air Power: Intercontinental Deterrence (Part 1)

This article examines Turkey's strategic air power capabilities, which it will develop by 2045, particularly in the context of intercontinental bombing capabilities. Turkey's growing strategic influence over Africa, the Middle East and the Balkans necessitates the projection of long-range deterrent power. Leadership in unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) technology, the evolutionary development of the ANKA family of platforms and domestic engine production capacity play a critical role in achieving this strategic goal.

Introduction: The New Geopolitical Reality

The economic and technological advances achieved by the Republic of Turkey between 2025 and 2045 are accelerating its transformation from a regional power to a global actor. In particular, infrastructure investments in Africa, diplomatic weight in the Middle East (strategic partnerships with the Gulf Cooperation Council) and historical ties in the Balkans give Turkey a sphere of influence spanning three continents.

This expanding strategic depth necessitates a reassessment of traditional military deterrence paradigms. In the face of potential threats to national interests at distances of 3,000-10,000 km, possessing intercontinental strike capability is no longer a ‘nice-to-have’ but a ‘must-have’ strategic necessity in today's world.

Intercontinental Strike Capability: Strategic Rationality

Deterrence Theory and the Long-Range Advantage

The fundamental principle of deterrence theory is to possess a significant counterforce capability such that the potential enemy's cost of attack exceeds the benefit.

Turkey's economic presence in more than 15 African countries (total investment of $50 billion), energy corridors in the Middle East, and ethnic-cultural ties in the Balkans are sensitive assets vulnerable to asymmetric threats. For example, intercontinental bombardment capability provides significant deterrence against actors threatening these assets. For instance, a militia group attacking Turkish infrastructure projects in Central Africa would face a capability that could neutralise it within 12 hours from a distance of 4,500 km, capable of ‘kinetic intervention’. This capability is a unique deterrent that overcomes the dependence of traditional piloted aircraft on aerial refuelling tankers and does not require diplomatic clearance (overflight permissions).

Operations in A2/AD Environments

Modern conflict environments are characterised by the Anti-Access/Area Denial (A2/AD) operational approach and the defence systems used within this framework. For example, S-400/S-500 systems deployed in critical energy corridors such as the Red Sea-Bab el-Mandeb Strait pose additional problems for traditional air power projection.

Intercontinental-range stealth platforms (e.g., the ANKA-5 concept) bypass these A2/AD zones from distances of 2,000+ km, undermining the enemy air defence's ‘safety zone’ assumption. Ultimately, this critical strike capability creates an asymmetric strategic advantage.

Technological Foundations: The Evolutionary Path of the ANKA Family

Current Capacity: The Proven Performance of ANKA-3

TUSAŞ's ANKA-3 platform (first flight in 2023) is Turkey's first revolutionary step in the strategic bombardment field. Powered by a single TEI-TF6000 jet engine, the ANKA-3 platform boasts a range of 4,000 km, an endurance of over 20 hours, and a radar cross-section (RCS) of just 0.01 m², which is remarkably low. is a remarkable platform with its airframe design, similar to the B-21 Raider, and has secured its place among the world's most advanced stealth UAVs, particularly in unmanned combat vehicles.

Evolutionary Step: ANKA-4 (Twin-Engine Concept)

The ANKA-4 concept aims to achieve supersonic capability (Mach 1.2-1.4), a range of 5,500 km, and a weapons payload of 4,000 kg with its 2x TEI-TF10000 engines (normally 12,000 lbf thrust, 20,000 lbf thrust with afterburner). This signifies that TUSAŞ has taken the ANKA-3's ‘strategic surveillance’ role to the next level. This advancement also symbolises Turkey's transition to a ‘strategic bomber’ role.

A critical feature gained with this platform is the flexibility to conduct flights without requiring ‘in-flight refuelling’ during intercontinental operations. To give an example, an ANKA-4 platform taking off from an air base in Turkey with a weapons payload aims to achieve a range superiority that would allow it to comfortably strike targets as far away as Central Africa (approximately 4,500 kilometres).

Revolutionary Leap: ANKA-5 (Intercontinental Platform)

Meanwhile, the ANKA-5 concept represents the highest level of Turkey's strategic strike capability, anticipated to be realised in the 2035-2040 timeframe. Anticipated features:

• Propulsion: 4x TEI-TF10000 or 2x TEI-TF20000 (under development)
• Range: 10,000+ km (global reach)
• Payload: 8,000-10,000 kg (strategic level)
• Endurance: 30+ hours
• RCS: <0.001 m² (B-21 Raider level)
• Autonomy: Level 5 (fully autonomous operation)

This platform provides direct strike capability from Istanbul to Cape Town, South Africa (8,800 km) or from Morocco to Somalia (7,200 km). To illustrate, all 54 countries on the African continent become accessible from Turkish territory with a single operation.

Strategic Scenarios: 2045 Operational Concepts

Scenario Alpha: Central Africa Stabilisation Operation

Context: Turkey's $5 billion hydroelectric dam in Chad has been seized by a local militia group. Diplomatic solutions have failed, and the local government has requested military support.

Operation: 2x ANKA-5 take off to strike targets 4,800 km away from Ankara. Thanks to their stealth profile, they pass at high altitude without being detected by radars in Sudan-South Sudan airspace. They strike their assigned targets (militia bases, command centres) one by one with the 8 SOM-J missiles they carry. Remains in the area for 4 hours for BDA (Battle Damage Assessment), then returns. Total operation time: 18 hours. Losses: 0. Enemy: Shocked, asking ‘How were we hit?’

Strategic Impact: A kinetic operation has demonstrated without delay that attacking Turkey's assets in Africa comes at a cost, thereby reinforcing the necessary deterrence.

Scenario Beta: Energy Corridor Protection

Context: There has been an increase in attacks by terrorists using unmanned naval vehicles against Turkish LNG tankers in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. The international coalition has been insufficient in deterring the terrorists.

Operation: 4x ANKA-5 take off from Diyarbakır fully loaded to strike targets 2,200 km away. They strike UAV production facilities on the Yemeni coast with 16 SOM-J missiles. The facilities are 80% destroyed. They conduct patrol flights over the Red Sea for approximately 12 hours, listening in on terrorists' radio communications and contacts with SIGINT sensors.

Strategic Impact: Turkey's determination to protect critical sea lanes has been demonstrated, ensuring energy security.

Technological and Operational Challenges

Intercontinental strike capability brings with it three critical challenges:

Data Link Sustainability: Real-time control at a distance of 5,000+ km requires satellite bandwidth and quantum-safe encryption. TÜRKSAT 6A's (2028) military communication capacity is still far from meeting this need.

Autonomous Decision-Making: In the event of communication interruptions, the Level 4-5 autonomous decision-making capacity of the artificial intelligence-based mission system is critical. Ethical and legal frameworks minimise these risks.

Allied Airspace Coordination: Long-range operations may require transit through the airspace of allied countries. Turkey's current airspace agreements with Libya, Somalia and Azerbaijan (2035-2040) are aimed at addressing such challenges. Similar allied agreements will be needed.

Conclusion: Turkey's Strategic Position in 2045

Intercontinental bombardment capability will contribute to the fulfilment of three fundamental functions in Turkey's 2045 strategic architecture:

Deterrence: Threats to Turkey's national interests in the Africa-Middle East-Balkans triangle can be countered independently of the ‘out of range’ constraint. Emerging threats, even if they are very distant, can be neutralised at any time with kinetic intervention if necessary.

Power Projection: Turkey supports its diplomatic power with high military access capability. This feature combines soft power capacity with hard power.

Strategic Autonomy: National decision-making initiative is gained without dependence on the US or NATO. This is the basis of 21st-century Turkey's strategic autonomy doctrine, which aims to overcome external dependence.

In this context, the ANKA-5 platform is a concrete manifestation of this vision. By 2045, Turkey will have fully established its status as a regional power, possessing a strategic offensive capability that can strike any threat arising against it ‘anytime, anywhere’ across three continents, regardless of distance.